九寨溝,都江堰,成都

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7Xd2haDYGE&feature=share

accessed October 19,2017

●為了配樂,煩惱兩天。古箏版的滄海一聲笑不夠大氣;古典音樂 Rustle of Spring,聽久了會想跑廁所。今天聽了一早上的大提琴和 adagio (慢板),最後林先生建議配『與狼共舞』的主題曲,Bingo!

PS. 攝影為我們合作

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As U.S. Confronts Internet’s Disruptions, China Feels Vindicated

Steven Lee Myers and Sui-Lee Wee The New York Times, October 16, 2017

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/16/world/asia/china-internet-cyber-control.html

accessed October 19, 2017

紐約時報報導(不是人民日報報導):
美國現在束手無策。面對假新聞、駭客、外國滲透網路干擾選舉(指俄羅斯),不知如何應付。
中國一向嚴格控制網路,還被西方指責。 它現在覺得雪冤了。
紐約時報,自由派大報,以前是批評中國言論不自由最力的媒體。 現在怎麼啦?
1. 被北京買了?
2.
觀察到以前沒注意的角度?
3.
其他.....

林中斌 試節譯 2017.10.19



HULUNBUIR, China — In the United States, some of the world’s most powerful technology companies face rising pressure to do more to fight false information and stop foreign infiltration.

China, however, has watchdogs like Zhao Jinxu.

From his small town on the windswept grasslands of the Inner Mongolia region of China, Mr. Zhao, 27, scours the internet for fake news, pornography and calls to violence. He is one of a battalion of online “supervisors” whom Weibo, one of China’s biggest social media platforms, announced last month it would hire to help enforce China’s stringent limits on online content.

For years, the United States and others saw this sort of heavy-handed censorship as a sign of political vulnerability and a barrier to China’s economic development. But as countries in the West discuss potential internet restrictions and wring their hands over fake news, hacking and foreign meddling, some in China see a powerful affirmation of the country’s vision for the internet.

“This kind of thing would not happen here,” Mr. Zhao said of the controversy over Russia’s influence in the American presidential election last year.

Besides Communist Party loyalists, few would argue that China’s internet control serves as a model for democratic societies. China squelches online dissent and imprisons many of those who practice it. It blocks foreign news and information, including the website of The New York Times, and promotes homegrown technology companies while banning global services like Facebook and Twitter.

At the same time, China anticipated many of the questions now flummoxing governments from the United States to Germany to Indonesia. Where the Russians have turned the internet into a political weapon, China has used it as a shield.

In fact, when it comes to technology, China has prospered. It has a booming technology culture. Its internet companies rival Facebook and Amazon in heft. To other countries, China may offer an enticing top-down model that suggests that technology can thrive even under the government’s thumb.

 

 

“It doesn’t matter how efficient the internet is,” said Zhu Wei, deputy director of the Communications Law Research Center at the China University of Political Science and Law, which advises the government on internet laws. “It won’t work without security.”

China is not resting on its laurels.

In the weeks leading up to the major party congress that opens in Beijing on Wednesday, the country’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has issued a raft of new regulations.

One, which took effect last week, holds the creators of online forums or group chats responsible for their users’ comments.

Another bans anonymous users, a blow at the bots and deceptive accounts — like those on Facebook and Twitter — that distributed false stories aimed at American voters.

“If our party cannot traverse the hurdle presented by the internet, it cannot traverse the hurdle of remaining in power,” a department of the cyberspace administration wrote in a top party journal last month.

The article was in keeping with President Xi Jinping’s early recognition of the power of the internet. Mr. Xi created and empowered the cyberspace administration, which has subsumed many of the overlapping agencies that once governed content in cyberspace.

The administration is now seen as an institution as important as the defense ministry. Since last year, it has been led by Xu Lin, 54, a party technocrat and former propaganda official, who, like other influential officials who previously worked beside Mr. Xi in Shanghai, has soared through the ranks.

Samm Sacks, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the cyberspace administration was a core part of Mr. Xi’s vow to make China a cyber superpower, on par with the United States.

“There’s a recognition that technology has advanced more quickly than the government’s ability to control it,” Ms. Sacks said. Russia’s interference with Facebook, to cite only one example, was “justification for exactly what they are doing here.”

China’s homegrown internet companies are key to its top-down approach. Tech firms are expected to keep content on file for 60 days and report to the police any forbidden content. The government is acquiring small equity stakes in some tech companies in exchange for board seats, giving it a direct role in the governance of new internet titans.

The tech firms also face tight penalties if they fail to keep users in line. In September, the cybersecurity administration imposed fines on social media platforms owned wholly or in part by three of China’s biggest internet companies — Tencent Holdings, the Alibaba Group and Baidu — for failing to stop the circulation of fabricated rumors, violence and pornography. (Companies can be fined up to $76,000 per offense, and have their business licenses canceled, if they cannot prevent the transmission of banned content.)

Human rights observers worry that the crackdown may have a chilling effect on political speech that is already tightly curbed. Last month, for example, the police raided the home of a university professor, Liu Pengfei, who had hosted a current-affairs forum on Tencent’s WeChat software, one of the world’s most popular messaging apps.

In exchange for accepting tight controls, China internet companies have been allowed to grow while their foreign rivals were shut out of the country. They can now claim their own technology successes. Tencent’s WeChat has transformed social life in China: People use it to chat, pay bills, transfer money, book cabs and hook up romantically.

China is now embarking on an ambitious project to dominate fields like artificial intelligence, and some say China could be at an advantage. It has more than 700 million internet users, and it doesn’t have a robust legal framework to deal with data privacy intrusions. That makes it easier for companies to harness user data — which is core to developing A.I. technology.

Still, China’s advantage could be double-edged. Chinese internet companies have struggled to expand abroad, which experts say stems in part from their dependence on their government.

“To a large extent, the competitive advantage is the political relationship they have with the government there and that’s not something you can carry across borders,” said Lokman Tsui, an assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Moreover, not all of the new restrictions have been welcomed here. Some of the companies — and internet users — balked at tightened enforcement of rules requiring users of social media platforms to provide their real identities to the companies (although they may still use online pseudonyms). Weibo’s announcement that it was seeking 1,000 recruits to become supervisors to report illegal content online — the definitions of which can be expansive — was met by derision on its own site.

“Online and offline, Big Brother is watching,” wrote one user, who used the handle mingxinjianxing.

But when it comes to the controversy over Russia’s intervention, there has been little discussion here. Among the few who are discussing it on Weibo, some expressed shock that the United States does not censor information shared on social media platforms.

Mr. Zhao, the young volunteer on Weibo, is typical of those here who believe government control is justified.

In a restaurant called Europa, Mr. Zhao — who declined to disclose details of where and how he works — described China’s system not as “Big Brother” so much as a younger brother, which he is, protecting children, like those of his sister, from harmful material.

“Even though the internet is virtual, it is still part of society,” he added. “So in any space I feel no one should create pornographic, illegal or violent posts.”

In his new capacity, he scours Weibo in search of the lurid and illicit. Some posts, he explained, are thinly veiled solicitations for pornography or prostitution, including one message he reported to the police the other day for using what he said was a euphemism for selling sex.

When he reports abuse, it is the police who follow up. He excitedly displayed his smartphone to show the latest of his more than 3,000 followers on Weibo: the division of the Beijing police that monitors the internet.

“Normally, if you don’t do bad things, you don’t get followed by the police,” he said. “I think this — for someone who has been online for so many years — is really special.”

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中國為啥不打?真相終於曝光!舉國沸騰!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX6XbsHXlCo&feature=share

accessed October 15, 2017

 

為何不會打台灣?
為何中日不會不免一戰?
為何中美打不起來?
為何一帶一路走得通?
為何蔡習會有可能?

敬請卓參。

林中斌 2017.10.15

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連蜘蛛蟑螂都不殺,要殺魔嗎?

accessed October 15, 2017

佛陀教導我們:
不要摧毀魔,而要催伏魔/降伏魔,或破壞魔的怨氣,誘導魔離開魔的業力。
這種精神與「善惡鬥爭,你死我活,絕不干休,永無止境」是不同的。

●「降伏魔眾永離其業」(八十華嚴/卷廿四/頁755)
金剛幢菩薩所說十迴向中之第二迴向

●「出大光明名能壞魔怨」(八十華嚴/卷卅九/頁1162)
金剛藏菩薩告解脫雲菩薩有關第十地菩薩即法雲地菩薩並受到職位的修為

●「演說大法摧伏魔怨」(八十華嚴/卷卅九/頁1168)
金剛藏菩薩告解脫雲菩薩有關第十地菩薩即法雲地菩薩的修為
來源:八十華嚴:《大方廣佛華嚴經》 (台北:佛陀教育基金會2014年出版)

以上為恭讀華嚴經心得。
敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.10.15

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義救恩師的普丁

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxngs6BmQ9s&app=desktop

accessed October 14, 2017

原來如此!!!
普丁在俄羅斯石油危機經濟拮据下仍獲85%以上人民支持(西方在俄羅斯內所做之民調)
對國家領袖也是自己老闆的忠,與對過去恩師的義,而兩人是政敵,如何兩全
普丁曾不惜自己性命及政治前途義救恩師。
今日世界寡情的政治人物中居然有這號人物!!!
內容精彩,電影情節。
鄭重推薦!!!!
感謝林中明提供。

林中斌 2017.10.14

 

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王岐山十九大應會留任

聯合報, 20171013

https://udn.com/news/story/7340/2754144?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2

accessed October 13, 2017

●這篇探索王岐山十九大去留的名人堂文稿今日登出。七天前(10/6)已寄交聯合報。
●這篇王岐山十九大留任的觀點符合前日(10/11)路透社駐北京首席記者林洸
耀發表 的報導,但在下這次並未向獲獎多次的前路透社駐北京社長林洸耀
請益。
(Benjamin Kan Lim et al.,“China's Xi looks set to keep right-hand 
man on despite age” Reuters October 11, 2017 

https://www.reuters.com/…/us-china-congres…/chinas-xi-looks-
set-to-keep-right-hand-man-on-despite-age-idUSKBN1CG0JI)
●林洸耀的觀察是根據對16位不具名北京與官方有聯繫的內幕人士的訪問。
在下觀察的依據是公開資料和邏輯判斷。
●目前一般觀察家對王岐山去留看法仍然分歧。

林中斌 2017.10.13

●This monthly column of mine in the United Daily News entitled “Wang 
Qishan Will Remain in Power after the Chinese Communist Party19th 
Party Congress” is published today although my manuscript has been 
submitted since a week ago on October 6.
●My view of WQS to remain in power conforms with that of an October 11 
Reuters report by Benjamin Kan Lim et al.. However, this time I have not 
consulted with Benjamin Lim who was Reuter’s bureau chief in Beijing, 
and after having garnered several prestigious awards is the leading 
Reuters Beijing journalist.
●While Benjamin Lim’s analysis is based on interviews with 16 anonymous 
insiders with connections with Beijing leadership, mine is based on open 
sources and logic.
●Currently, observers of Beijing politics remain severely divided on whether 
WQS will or will not stay in power after next week.

Chong-Pin Lin October 13, 2017


王岐山十九大應會留任
林中斌
名人堂稿件
日期:20171006 本文字數1099 目標字數:1100


中共十九大將於十月十八日召開。各界關心的頭條是:習近平最依重的王岐山是否留任?日本和香港媒體說「不」,而英國媒體說「會」。北京雖然封鎖消息,但謠言滿天飛,令觀察家眼花撩亂,莫衷一是。
一年前,習近平大權在握但尚非全握。目前,他已徹底翻修了解放軍組織和人事,更接近大權全握。十九大王岐山去留,全看習近平。其他因素,如民意、官意、「派系平衡」皆非關鍵。但習面臨兩大考量,性質卻相反:
●不留王:在海外爆料王岐山貪腐,企圖令他失勢的富商郭文貴於是得逞。對北京來說,內外的後患無窮。國際上,支持保護郭文貴的西方政府於是找到北京的軟肋,以後會如法炮製。郭文貴二、郭文貴三…將陸續出現,隨時影響北京政局。國內,上千上萬受王岐山打貪而被懲的黨軍官員,將振振有辭的要求翻案重審,因為治罪他們的王岐山自己有罪。他們甚至可能策動遊行抗議不公。社會動盪,何日得了?
●留王:主打反貪的習近平,如何對外交代?郭文貴指控王岐山貪腐,北京至今沒有承認也沒有否認。如果郭文貴指控屬實,習近平以貪打貪,自失立場,人心不服,何以長久?
留王或不留王,都有顧忌,習如何拿捏?
在下淺見是:習會留王。並任命他主導將於一八年初成立的「國家監察委員會」(國監委)。理由如下:
●破除內外後遺症:不讓國外郭文貴倒王得逞,也不讓國內反王運動爆發。 中共黨的「中紀委」與政府的「國監委」是兩個機構但合署辦公。「國監委」與「國務院」是平級,執行「異體監督」。「國監委」領導與「國務院」總理也是平級。「國監委」領導在國外,可受總理的待遇。那是王岐山之前所任中紀委書記沒有的國際尊榮。
「國監委」為新設立的機構,其領導是否任政治局常委,無先例可循。如果十九大通過主席制,習為黨、軍、國家三合一的主席,王必為黨的副主席而無必要任政治局常委。
●十八大後收手不究:一六年六月廿二日新華社提到「一四年四月,王岐山說…在十八大以前…官員…把腐敗當成了一種正常現象…(其)行為可能是迫於壓力和環境不得已而為之,而黨的十八大以後…及時收手至少在對反腐的認識上與中央保持了一致。」
一五年一月四日「中國共產黨第十八屆中央紀律檢查委員會第五次全體會議公報」再提到「重點查處十八大後不收斂、不收手(的官員)」。換言之,王岐山家族在十八前收斂收手,就不在重點查處之列。甚至還能「坦白從寬」。
這是王岐山對國營企業揮舞紀委大刀前的伏筆。他應該在一四年四月前已和習近平交代他家族涉入國企的情況,並劃出這條時間線自保。(此項觀察及相關文獻為資深中共軍事及政治分析家亓樂義先生提供)
如此,強調打貪的習至少有個可向元老及黨內高層交代的說法。
何況,王岐山點子多、能力強,正是習近平今後五年改革不可或缺的助力。

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長,甫發表新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》

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爭取台灣民心

旺報, 2017109

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171009000398-260301

accessed October 9, 2017

美國的中國專家們就十九大後北京對台作法最近發表高見。
有那一位想到這一招?
都說十九大後,北京對台只會打壓加劇。
外來和尚真的更會念經嗎?

林中斌 2017.10.9

 

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蔡英文預埋的蔡習會伏筆

富權, 新華澳報,2017106

http://www.waou.com.mo/news_b/shownews.php?lang=cn&id=23938

accessed October 8, 2017

 

這是澳門新華社兩岸問題資深記者林昶的評論摘錄。林昶鑽研兩岸問題至少已有廿多年。他曾任某省的政協委員,但勤跑台灣,深入各界採訪。對雙方都有深入的觀察。此篇他居然暗示地說:習近平對蔡英文在習應付內外麻煩問題時「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」是感激的。摘錄數條文字如下:

但正式提出「統一時間表」,其實可能會「套牢」自己:倘到了「時間」而因主客觀原因而未能實現,那就是「違法」,該當「問斬」。
當年立法,原本的思考方向就是《國家統一法》,全國人大常委會最初審議的法案,也是如此。但最後卻是《反分裂國家法》,就是將「正面清單」改為「負面清單」,自己可以掌握主動。
從目前情況看,蔡英文一方面拒絕承認「九二共識」,另一方面卻又實行「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」策略,不象陳水扁那樣是個「麻煩製造者」。
其實從一定角度看,就在蔡英文上台後的這段時間內,習近平要面對的困難不少,包括內部的軍改、打貪,應對幾隻能量極大的「大老虎」;對外的南海仲裁、釣魚島、朝核等問題。蔡英文實行「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」,沒有給對岸增添麻煩,使得北京高層可以中精力處理各種問題。因此,「武統論」一出來,很快就銷聲匿跡。
而且,直到現在,包括習近平在內的高層,尚未有直接點名批評蔡英文,陸委會也是在台灣當局所有公權力機關中,唯一沒有被大陸官方報導中打上「引號」的機構。這似是要保留一個迴旋空間。

林中斌摘錄 2017.10.8

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出口轉內銷

涂鉅旻, 自由時報, 2017107

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1141540

accessed October 7, 2017

出口轉內銷!!
震憾全台灣數日的"美國軍事專家"根據解放軍內部報告說2020攻台,竟然來源是臺灣2013年國防白皮書!!!
當時2013國防白皮書出版乏人注意。
意涵是:
1.
臺灣容易受嚇?
2.
遠來和尚會唸經?
3.
臺灣 媒體生存不易需要"營養訊息"以增加閱讀及收視率?
4.
臺灣因享有民主,言論高度自由,很可貴? 對岸社會不允許震撼社會民心的訊息如此漫無控制的流傳,引起人心惶惶。
5.美國關心臺灣安全,值得臺灣珍惜?
6.
臺灣國防部打出的"回力鏢?"(bumarang?)射程遠到美國,但回來意外的打到自己,讓立委和媒體狠狠的"消費"現任部長?

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古典力與國力

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1139920

accessed October 3, 2017

 

自由時報(2017.10.1) 亞洲週刊 (2017.10.8號但於2017.10.2上架)幾乎同時登載要重視"古典力"的言論。兩份基本立場明顯不同的期刊呼籲相同的關切。是巧合?或突顯此議題的重要性已跨越了政治立場?

兩篇所根據的是4年前(2013)由天下雜誌出版的日本學者 齋藤孝所著"古典力"的中文譯本。

齋藤孝所著"古典力"呼應了 1998年美國歷史學者 Alf J. Mapp Jr. 所著 "Golden Ages" (黃金朝代)的主題之一。即治理國家,古典的智慧不能拋棄。

● "Golden Ages" (黃金時時代) 提到歷史三個輝煌的案例:
1. 文藝復興時代的翡冷翠/弗羅倫斯
2. 伊利沙白一世的英國
3. 開國時期的美國

這三個黃金朝代共同點是同時重視古文化和探索新領域。新事務與舊思想碰撞產生的火花創造出燦爛的成就,和強盛的國家。

十九世紀瑞士偉大的哲學家、教育家、藝術家博哈特說: "擺脫傳統的人,變得太弱太窮,而無法靠自己創造出偉大的成就。沒有過去的人只是個蠻人。" "man, divorces from tradition, is too weak and too poor a creature to create greatness out of himself..... Without his past man is a barbarian." (Jacob Christoph Burckhardt 1818-1897, Swiss philosopher)

歌德在1832年所寫的最後一封信裡說:"最好的天才 能吸收新事務,同時毫不減損他祖先傳下來的精華,反而把家傳的優點發揚光大。" "the best genius is that which absorbs the new, without this in the least impairing its inheritance, but rather enhancing it".

林中斌 2017.10,3

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