美中貿易戰

盧永山 自由時報 March 27, 2018

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1187508

張加杜宗熹 聯合新聞網 March 27, 2018

https://www.udn.com/news/story/10814/3053458 

accessed March 27, 2018

 

善變川普,恫嚇戲碼,一再玩弄,世界被耍。
川普一再玩拉高籌碼的遊戲。觀察家仍未看穿。媒體配合,喧染緊張,促進銷路,提升收視率。
廿一世紀,國際關係,衝突難免,大戰難起。對外強硬,對內表態;對外強硬,對內加分。對外強硬,對內減壓。
川普換官,有如棄紙。最早鷹派,隨後鴿派。今日主戰,明日主和。
現在上台的強硬派,焉知不會應情勢改變而被換下?

 

敬請賜正。
林中斌 2018.3.27

〔編譯盧永山/綜合報導〕 美國總統川普宣布對中國進口六百億美元產品課徵關稅,大動作向中國叫陣,中國也不甘示弱,揚言祭出報復措施。但華爾街日報、金融時報報導指出,美中之間激烈的言詞交鋒,只是表演給各自國內民眾看的公關戲碼,雙方根本是「紙老虎」,私底下已展開磋商,中國對美國前倨後恭的態度更成為中國網民的笑柄。

拆解川普的貿易手段

川普上週四簽署備忘錄,指示行政部門對中國進口六百億美元產品課徵關稅,並向世界貿易組織(WTO)提告,限制中國企業在美國投資等,以反制中國竊取美國智財權,降低美中貿易逆差;中國則反擊將對美國進口卅億美元產品課徵關稅,且正在研究進一步的報復名單。

華爾街日報引述知情人士透露,美國財長努勤及貿易代表萊席爾上週五已致函中國主管經濟事務的副總理劉鶴,信中提出具體要求,包括降低對美國進口汽車關稅、增買美國半導體、放寬美企對中國金融業的准入。

降低貿易逆差 六個月內可做到

努勤週日接受福斯新聞網訪問指出,在考慮採取制裁之際,也在跟中國談判,看看能否達成降低美中貿易逆差一千億美元協議;「對於達成協議,保持審慎樂觀態度,如果不能達成協議,我們仍將實施這個關稅。」

英國金融時報引述中國資深官員指出,中國有信心可「精準」回應川普的關稅措施,以降低美中貿易緊張;包括在六個月內降低美中間三七五億美元貿易逆差,並宣布新的市場開放措施,讓川普能在十一月期中大選前宣稱取得勝利。該官員直言,中國國家主席習近平在貿易上與美國交手有更大的戰略目標,這次事件只是小事,發動大規模貿易戰並不符合中國利益;當雙方展開協商時,總是要虛張聲勢一下,且川普又是個生意人。

金融時報並引述未具名消息人士透露,中國提出轉移部分向台灣和南韓採購半導體的訂單,改為擴大向美國採購,以助削減對美貿易順差。

傳中增購美半導體 砍台韓訂單

對此,台灣半導體產業憂心,若此事成真,將對國內從IC設計、晶圓代工到封裝測試產業有相當衝擊,其中聯發科首當其衝,被美國高通取代,至於對一線大廠的台積電、日月光等影響不大,但二線廠是衝擊難測。

分析師認為,美中兩國政府都在打經濟民族主義的牌,以顯示他們是自家利益的捍衛者,這是演給民眾看的;英國衛報認為,美中都是「紙老虎」,兩國在關稅問題上有紛爭,但貿易戰看起來不太可能發生,雙方都不願讓衝突升級。

不少中國網民也點破官方撂狠話的矛盾,有人指出,既然美國對中國的貿易制裁是「搬起石頭砸自己的腳」,中國為何還要抗議、反制呢?中國商務部警告美國懸崖勒馬,美國既然已經到了懸崖邊上了,為什麼不一腳踹他們下懸崖,反而要他們懸崖勒馬?

 

 

 

美中同聲表態:談判取代貿易戰

美國總統川普對進口貨品課重稅引發的美、中貿易戰疑慮出現轉圜跡象。中國大陸總理李克強昨天表示,大陸對外開放的大門將越開越大,大陸也不會強制要求外國企業轉讓技術,中美應堅持談判化解分歧,雙方若打貿易戰將沒有贏家。

中國大陸總理李克強昨天表示,中美應堅持談判化解分歧,雙方若打貿易戰將沒有贏家。 (中新社)

白宮貿易顧問納瓦羅接受彭博新聞採訪時說,「美中已經在談判桌了」,美國財政部長米努勤與貿易代表賴海哲與中方積極交流。一名白宮資深官員則說,川普政府積極參與與大陸的談判,以解決貿易緊張情勢,美國無意展開貿易戰。

美國財政部長米努勤傳考慮前往北京進行貿易協商。 (路透)

知情人士表示,米努勤正考慮前往北京進行協商,大陸的協商代表為國務院副總理劉鶴。美、中雙方表態以談判取代貿易戰,資本市場對此正面解讀,昨晚開盤的美股道瓊指數開盤跳空大漲近三百點,隨後一度大漲超過五百點。

川普在以國安理由啟動對進口鋼鋁課徵高關稅後,之後又簽署總統備忘錄對大陸銷往美國的貨品課徵高關稅,中方也揚言報復,美、中這全球前兩大經濟體恐陷入貿易戰,讓全球經貿發展面臨不可測的風險,局勢如今卻出現轉折。分析認為,這顯示川普表面上在打全球貿易戰,實際上是以此作為政治與經濟籌碼,謀求全球貿易規則的話語權。

南韓貿易部昨天宣布,美方給予南韓永久性的鋼鋁稅豁免,南韓則同意在美韓自由貿易協議中讓步;華爾街日報報導,中美已針對兩國包含金融服務業和製造業在內的貿易展開磋商,討論擴大開放市場給美國;美方對中方提出包含降低對美國汽車課徵的關稅、增加採購美國半導體,以及擴大美國企業參與大陸金融業。英國金融時報指出,大陸提出轉移部分向台灣和南韓採購半導體的訂單,改為擴大向美國採購,以助削減對美貿易順差。

李克強昨天在北京會見出席中國發展高層論壇年會的外國代表時指出,打貿易戰沒有贏家,因為「對別人關上門、也擋住了自己的路」,中美經貿規模發展到今天的體量,靠的是市場力量和商業規則,本質上是互利共贏的。

米努勤廿五日接受福斯新聞採訪時則說:「我們正在跟他們(中方)進行很有成效的對話,對於達成協議,我保持謹慎樂觀。」他表示,兩國同意一定程度上減少美國貿易逆差,並嘗試「就公平貿易達成共識,以使雙方能夠開放市場、降低關稅並停止強制性技術轉讓」。

市場人士分析,若美中對擴大採購半導體取得共識,對台灣產業傷害甚大,尤其台灣在晶圓代工居全球市占之冠,若大陸客戶轉單英特爾代工,對台積電、聯電影響甚大。

 

 

 

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加拿大的川普將竄起政壇

Stephen Marche New York Times March 22, 2018

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/opinion/doug-ford-populism-canada-trump.html

accessed March 22, 2018

加拿大今年67日安大略省選舉極可能出現像川普的新省長Doug Ford。他目前在民調中遙遙領先47% 只有26%的對手。(請見貼在樓上的紐約時報評論 Will Canada Elect a Tin-pot Northern Trump?)

一本心靈書(出版201711月屬系列的第四本)中開悟的老師預言未來世界說:將來會有更多crazy people winning election(p.129)。之前在第一本2002出版書"再見娑婆"(The Disappearance of the Universe )曾說2012.12.21 非世界末日,但會有許多災變。(更重要的是開悟的老師說: 無論發生任何災變,勿忘寬恕:"just be ready to forgive no matter what.")

Toronto — Tell me if you’ve heard this before: The spoiled son of a sprawling business dynasty positions himself as an anti-elite populist. During a pivotal campaign, he brushes off a history of crude remarks as political incorrectness to the delight of his base. Then, running against the establishment of his own party and an evidently more qualified female candidate, he loses the popular vote but manages, by way of an arcane voting system, to take power.

No, I’m not rehashing the victory of President Trump. I’m describing the rise of Canadian politician Doug Ford, who this month was elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, the right-of-center opposition in the country’s most populous province. With his party leading in the polls ahead of a June 7 election, Mr. Ford has a strong chance of becoming premier.

Trumpism, it seems, has migrated north.

Several years before the 2016 United States presidential campaign, Mr. Ford’s brother, the deceased former mayor of Toronto, Rob Ford, more or less invented the politics of boorish, divisive populism the American president has since mastered. Rob Ford figured out as early as 2010 that riding out scandal, while blaming the media and other unspecified “elites,” was a winning political strategy.

Torontonians forgave flaws in his character, appreciated them, even embraced them as signs of authenticity. It didn’t matter to his base that he smoked crack cocaine while in office. The Rob Ford era demonstrated that someone as shameless as Mr. Trump had a shot as a political figure.

Doug Ford is a more serious and self-disciplined version of his bumbling younger brother. He has resisted comparisons between himself and the president, but has also spoken fondly about The Donald. “Absolutely he respects women,” he said of the Republican presidential candidate in 2016. “There’s millions of women that have voted for him. So all those millions of women are dumb? I don’t think so.”

Mr. Ford, while much less addled than his brother was, has also been connected to Toronto’s underbelly, where Rob Ford spent so much of his time as mayor. The Globe and Mail newspaper reported in 2013 that Mr. Ford sold drugs throughout the better part of the 1980s. (He has never been charged and denies the allegations.) Thirty years later, if elected his government would be responsible for implementing Ontario’s new, legal recreational cannabis stores.

Overnight, the election of Mr. Ford crushed the smugness Canadians have been feeling since their prime minister, Justin Trudeau, appointed a cabinet of 50 percent women and became the envy of enlightened progressives the world over. The deep-seated cultural and political alienation at the root of Trump and Brexit is in full force in Canada as well.

Mr. Ford is already a front-runner. One poll has the Progressive Conservatives at 47 percent support and the incumbent Ontario Liberal Party at 26 percent. The latter, having ruled since 2003, has nearly 15 years’ worth of scandal to show for it. Rising inequality across the province, distaste for progressive rhetoric and the sense of a generalized corruption of politics as a whole is fueling, as elsewhere, a populism as inchoate as it is powerful.

And from Italy to the Philippines to Canada, this cannibalizing populism is swallowing traditional Conservatism whole. Mr. Ford snuck through to the leadership on a voting system that ranked ballots. He won neither the popular vote nor the greatest number of constituencies. But the Progressive Conservative machine is behind him already. It operates on inherited loyalties, antipathy against scandal-plagued opponents, time-for-a-change sentiments and basic self-interest.

EDITORS’ PICKS

 

Ideas were probably always somewhat irrelevant, so it hardly matters that the so-called Conservative parties aren’t conservative anymore. Or rather, Conservatism itself has changed. The Conservatism of law and order, of common decency and of fiscal responsibility has been rendered null and void. After the last provincial election, which the Liberals won handily, Mr. Ford, then a Toronto city councilor, prescribed “an enema from top to bottom” for the caucus he just inherited. The effluent is now lapping at his feet.

They may hope to change him. They won’t. Already, Mr. Ford, who has never held a seat in the Legislature, is boasting about a historically large victory in the offing. His bragging has an all-too familiar ring stateside. To stand with Mr. Ford is to express rage — and this rage will take its customary atavistic forms.

The current premier, Kathleen Wynne, the first lesbian elected to the post, introduced a modernized sex-education curriculum to the province’s public school systems. Just days after his election, Mr. Ford pledged to remove it, a policy that has support among some new immigrant communities, who tend to be more socially conservative.

He’s also running the standard Ford playbook. Elites are people who sip “Champagne with their pinkies in the air.” (His family’s label and packaging company is said to make tens of millions in annual sales.)

His infamous brother, when you get right down to it, was only the mayor of Toronto, which is not a very powerful position. Toronto’s “weak mayor” system ensures that its leader only gets one vote on the city council. In Canada, it’s actually the premier of a province who matters. His or her government regulates the schools and the public health care system. Do the people of Ontario really want a tin-pot northern Trump in charge of things that affect their daily lives? Canada’s Constitution calls for “peace, order and good government”; it is hard to imagine anyone who could fulfill that mandate less.

Mr. Ford’s sweep in as quiet and stable a place as Ontario points to a broader global crisis from which apparently there is no escape. Conservatism is no longer a political ideology in the recognized sense, but a repository of loathing and despair. It’s where people thrust their hatred of modernity — of globalism and multiculturalism and technocratic expertise, but also of the democracy that fostered those systems in the first place. By giving high office to buffoons, by choosing thugs as their representatives and by reveling in nastiness for its own sake, the Conservative brand now is principally a marker of contempt for political order itself.

Conservatism has meant many things to many people around the world. Now, just about everywhere, it looks a lot like a raised middle finger; Ford and friends are the latest to salute.

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四維花園

林中斌 2018.3.26

 

 

 

 

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The Dirty Secret of America Nuclear Arms in Korea

Walter Pincus New York Times March 19, 2018

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/opinion/korea-nuclear-arms-america.html

accessed March 19, 2018

North Korea may be unreliable, but it was America that broke with the Korean armistice by introducing nuclear weapons into South Korea in 1958.
北韓 或許不可靠,然而是美國先破壞 韓戰停戰協定:1958年美國 部署核子武器進南韓。

As President Trump prepares for a possible meeting with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, many Americans are raising warnings that North Korea has walked away from previous arms agreements. But those skeptics should remember that it was the United States, in 1958, that broke the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement, when the Eisenhower administration sent the first atomic weapons into South Korea.

By the mid-1960s, the United States had more than 900 nuclear artillery shells, tactical bombs, surface-to-surface rockets and missiles, antiaircraft missiles and nuclear land mines in South Korea. Even nuclear projectiles for Davy Crockett recoilless rifles were for several years based in South Korea.

The presence of those American weapons probably motivated the North Koreans to accelerate development of their own nuclear weapons. Although all the tactical United States nuclear weapons were removed from South Korea in 1991, the Seoul government still remains under the American nuclear umbrella — and the impetus for Kim Jong-un to have his own remains, as it did for his father and grandfather.

“The danger that U.S. nuclear weapons might be used against the North has been a central principle in its strategic thought and actions ever since,” Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a North Korea expert, wrote in a 2015 paper.

 

The 1953 Korean armistice, which halted three years of bloody fighting, contained a provision that prohibited new types of weapons or ammunition to be introduced into the peninsula by either the United States-led United Nations forces, or the North Korean and Chinese forces. The armistice agreement even set up inspection teams from neutral nations to monitor incoming weapons shipments.

Image

People marched through Pyongyang, North Korea, in July of 1958 demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea.CreditKeystone/Hulton Archive, via Getty Images

However, declassified United States documents describe in detail how the Eisenhower administration, worried about the cost of defending South Korea and the prowess of North Korea’s Chinese-backed military, agreed to send tactical nuclear weapons systems to South Korea. In return, the administration was hoping to get the Joint Chiefs of Staff to support reducing the number of American and South Korean troops on the peninsula that the United States was financing, at a cost of about $650 million a year for the Korean troops alone.

Planning to send the atomic weapons to South Korea began in 1956. A Nov. 28, 1956, meeting involving Defense and State Department officials was titled “Defense proposal to authorize the introduction of ‘Honest John’ and the 280 millimeter gun in Korea,” according to a declassified memorandum.

According to that memorandum, the Pentagon’s general counsel argued that American soldiers in South Korea “should be permitted to have weapons of dual capability” — noting that the Honest John rocket system and the 280-millimeter gun “have both conventional and atomic capability.”

The State Department’s legal adviser, Herman Phleger, responded that the two weapons systems “would be a violation” of the armistice agreement and could not be justified as a matter of “liberal interpretation.” He added that these nuclear-capable weapons “would create an imbalance” which would violate the spirit of the agreement, especially since American officials could not establish that the North Koreans had deployed atomic weapons.

EDITORS’ PICKS

Pentagon officials argued that the Joint Chiefs of Staff regarded the introduction of the Honest John and Davy Crockett systems as “essential from a military viewpoint.” In turn they suggested that the North, by obtaining new artillery weapons and high performance aircraft, had violated the agreement and freed the United States “to disregard its restrictions.”

According to notes from a National Security Council meeting on June 13, 1957, Adm. Arthur Radford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that military planning for South Korea could not continue “without being able to count on the use of nuclear weapons.” Eisenhower agreed that jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons should be introduced into the South. But he also noted that if the United States introduced nuclear-capable Honest John rocket systems and 280-millimeter guns to the South, they would be “so conspicuous that you would have to explain their introduction to the whole world.”

On June 21, 1957, the senior official on the United Nations Command of the Military Armistice Commission, Maj. Gen. Homer L. Litzenberg, indicated that, given the North Koreans’ alleged violations, the command would no longer consider itself bound by certain limitations in the armistice agreement. The North Korean representative at the commission described General Litzenberg’s statement as an attempt “to wreck the armistice agreement and turn South Korea into an American base of atomic warfare.”

That day, the abrogation of the weapons prohibition was announced by the United Nations Command. The New York Times reported from Panmunjom, North Korea, that during a United Nations meeting, General Litzenberg had “left the door open for the introduction in South Korea of weapons capable of firing atomic warheads.” General Litzenberg declined to say what type of weapons the organizations planned to bring in.

However, that same day in Washington, the assistant secretary of defense for public affairs, Murray Snyder, told Pentagon reporters that no ground weapons capable of firing atomic warheads would be introduced. That turned out to be untrue.

At an Aug. 8, 1957, National Security Council meeting, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said, according to meeting notes, that ending the Korea arms prohibitions “had been pretty well received throughout the Free World.” Secretary of Defense Charles Erwin Wilson said the plan to put nuclear weapons in South Korea, if adopted, “would be able to bring home approximately 8,000 American military personnel and we could cut out four active South Korean divisions, which would save us approximately $125 million a year.”

It took months to negotiate reduction of four South Korean divisions with Syngman Rhee, the South Korean president. But on Dec. 24, 1957, Army Secretary Wilber Brucker was authorized to introduce into Korea the Honest John and 280-millimeter gun “as soon as is feasible under Army deployment schedules.”

Three days later, the American Embassy in South Korea proposed announcing the arrival of the atomic-capable weapons, saying the news was “bound to become public knowledge.” The United Nations Command agreed, and at a news conference in Seoul on Jan. 28, 1958, the arrival of the atomic-capable weapons was announced. A United States Army spokesman refused to say how many cannons arrived and whether they were accompanied by atomic warheads. It was a two-paragraph story on page 3 of The New York Times.

Since then, Americans have forgotten this history and American politicians have only blamed North Korea for undermining arms agreements. Pyongyang has indeed been unreliable; but its leaders recall what happened in the 1950s, having spent 33 years facing American nuclear weapons just across the border in South Korea.

The United States does not come to any future talks with totally clean hands. Both sides have reasons to adopt Ronald Reagan’s advice: “Trust, but verify.”

 

 

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With option to rule for life, China's Xi sets sights on Taiwan

CNN March 20, 2018

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/20/asia/taiwan-china-xi-jinping-intl/index.html

accessed March 20, 2018

 

感謝CNN 記者Joshua Berlinger ,他是西方記者中少有終於把我英文名字拼對了的。

林中斌 2018.3.20

I wish to congratulate Joshua Berlinger for spelling my name correctly, a badge of high professionalism.

Chong-Pin Lin March 20, 2018

Others spoke of a brain drain, and many see the continued integration as inevitable due to Beijing's growing economic might.
"If the trends continue, the elected government in Taiwan will have to reconsider the direction of cross-strait policy," said Chong-Pin Lin, Taiwan's former deputy minister of national defense and first vice-chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. "I think Beijing knows that very well."
"Soft power may eventually lead to what Beijing or Xi wants, which is integration and unification," said Lin.

Hong Kong (CNN) Xi Jinping began his second term as China's president with a blunt warning for Taiwan, an island it views as a breakaway province.

"All acts and tricks to split the motherland are doomed to failure and will be condemned by the people and punished by history," Xi said Tuesday at the close of the National People's Congress, Beijing's rubber-stamp legislature.

"Every inch of our great motherland's territory cannot be separated from China," he said, drawing loud applause from his audience inside the Great Hall of the People.

The tough talk on Taiwan isn't new. But Xi now has the option to serve as president for life, meaning he can execute strategies that last decades rather than years.

That long leash could give Xi opportunity to focus on achieving something that's eluded Chinese Communist leaders for nearly seven decades since the founding of the People's Republic: regaining control of Taiwan.

"Taiwan is very important and he wants to do it within his lifetime," said Willy Lam, a professor at the Center for China Studies at the Chinese University in Hong Kong.

"If Xi Jinping can pull off this national reunification by so-called liberating Taiwan, then he has something in the history books," Lam said.

 

 

Socialism with Chinese characteristics? Beijing's propaganda explained

The democratic island of Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) is separated from mainland China (the People's Republic) by a thin stretch of water and has been self-governed since a bloody civil war ended in 1949.

Though both Taipei and Beijing view the island as part of China, neither government recognizes the legitimacy of the opposing side, with Beijing warning that it could retake the island by force if necessary.

A renewed focus by Xi on Taiwan would put China on a collision course with the United States, which has diplomatic relations only with Beijing but maintains close unofficial links with Taipei.

Washington also provides arms to the island under the Taiwan Relations Act, and has signaled closer ties with Taiwan after President Donald Trump signed a bill Friday that aims to make it easier for US officials to visit the island and Taiwan officials to visit the US.

 

 

Xi Jinping Fast Facts

Zhang Baohui, a professor of political science at Lingnan University in Hong Kong said that Taiwan could be part of Xi's motive for removing restrictions on term limits but it's not an issue he's likely to move on in the near term.

"His most important priority is domestic politics. Externally, Taiwan is secondary compared to US-Sino relations, the Korean peninsula and boosting China's leadership role in the world."

For now, what he wants is to deter Taiwan from greater independence, Zhang said, but that calculation could change should the balance of power shift between the US and China.

"After 20 years, by 2040, if China's achieved military parity then it may be feasible if they could win at a low cost."

One of China's top military leaders, Han Weiguo, the commander of the Chinese military's ground forces, said last week that Taiwan should be reunited by peaceful means but warned: "That doesn't mean the problem could be postponed indefinitely. It should be solved as quickly as possible," Han said, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

Nationalist fervor

A pillar of Xi's leadership has been his promise of returning China to its former glory, before Western powers dealt the country a humiliating blow, starting in the Opium Wars of the 1800s, and the chaos that engulfed China throughout the early 20th Century.

Part of that promise is steeped in nationalism, and there's perhaps no other issue that whips up more nationalist fervor inside China than the issue of Taiwan.

 

 

Straying from the policy of "One China," which has governed relations between Beijing, Taipei and Washington for decades, can lead to serious consequences.

Companies like MarriottZara and Delta all had their websites blocked by China's censors in January after authorities found they listed Taiwan as a separate country.

The same sensitivity can be seen in Beijing's furious response to the Taiwan Travel Act, which Trump signed into law with little fanfare Friday.

The new law encourages US government officials of all levels to travel to Taiwan for official meetings and vice versa. While it has no binding legal force, it's symbolically supportive of Taiwan. Beijing has often called on the US to block visits by Taiwan's political leaders.

"China demands that the US keep its promises, rectify its wrongs, refrain from implementing relevant clauses of the bill and stop seeking any official contacts, military ties or arms sales with Taiwan, so as to avoid doing serious harm to the China-US relationship, the ties between the two countries' militaries and the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said Sunday.

Beijing fears developments in Taiwan that are out of its control, said Bonnie Glaser, the director of the China Power Project at Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"Beijing is worried about the potential for Taiwan to sort of drift off in a direction toward independence," Glaser said.

"They seem to be nervous that because, in part, President Trump is unpredictable, that this could lead to a surprise ... they're particularly worried about very high level visitors from Taiwan such as the president, the minister of defense, the minister of foreign affairs," Glaser said.

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping was sworn in Saturday for his second term as President.

Carrots and sticks

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen warned late last year that China's military exercises around the island had become more frequent and were affecting regional stability, according to Taiwan's state-run news agency CNA.

As of this year, Taiwan has 215,000 people in its armed forces, while Beijing counts more than two million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. In 2017, China's military budget was three times higher than Taiwan's.

China's military has "established a clear superiority," said Zhang, the political science professor, however he said Taiwan could still make a military conflict very costly to Beijing.

"Xi has a defensive agenda. He doesn't want to coerce reunification," he said.

 

Taiwan Presdient Tsai Ing-wen waves to supporters during her campaign in 2016.

But experts say soft power and economic integration appear to be the keys to Xi's plans regarding Taiwan.

During his speech Tuesday, Xi called for peaceful reunification and said China would "share opportunities" with "compatriots" in Taiwan.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office in February revealed 31 new measures it will undertake to promote exchange and cooperate with Taipei, many of which make it easier for those from Taiwan to work, do business and study in mainland China including teachers and doctors.

This view is reflected on the streets of Taipei, Taiwan's largest city, where some young people speak openly about the need for pragmatism over idealism.

"As much as we want to enjoy the freedom and democracy in Taiwan, we also want the money and the opportunities China can provide," a 22-year-old restaurant worker surnamed Wu told CNN.

However, opinion polls conducted by Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council show the vast majority of those in Taiwan favor maintaining the status quo and want China to "pragmatically face up to the fact that the Republic of China (ROC) is a sovereign state."

Others spoke of a brain drain, and many see the continued integration as inevitable due to Beijing's growing economic might.

"If the trends continue, the elected government in Taiwan will have to reconsider the direction of cross-strait policy," said Chong-Pin Lin, Taiwan's former deputy minister of national defense and first vice-chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. "I think Beijing knows that very well."

"Soft power may eventually lead to what Beijing or Xi wants, which is integration and unification," said Lin.

A legacy risk

Analysts believe Xi is a man deeply aware of history and concerned with his legacy. He's already considered China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, Communist China's founding father, and has had his political doctrine included in the Chinese Communist Party's Constitution.

The longer he leads, the higher the expectations will be, argues Glaser, the academic at CSIS, and Taiwan would be the biggest prize.

"If Xi stays in power for another term or even a fourth term, then I do think that there is growing pressure on him to achieve more," she said.

 

 

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英勇勳章

佳片推薦
英勇勲章(台灣)/
Rescue Under Fire(英文)/En Zona Hostil(西班牙文)/敵對區域
-- 真實故事搬上銀幕。
Based on a true story of NATO's war with the Taliban in Afghanistan in August 2012.
-- 攝影,演員,情節皆有水準。
Good cinematography, credible acting, and engaging story-telling.
--Spanish production on how a Spanish military medical team led by a woman captain helped by the helicopter forces heroically saved wounded soldiers and Afghan civilians under fire.
-- More subtle and refined than the Hollywood war films 
-- To my surprise, the real life woman captain of the military medical team is as good-looking if not more so than the actress Ariadna Gil as shown at the end of the film during the credit time when photos of the two were juxtaposed.

Chong-Pin Lin 2018.3.19

 

 

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注意王岐山

鄒景雯 自由時報 March 19, 2018

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1185128

accessed March 19, 2018

 

自由時報轉型。
-- "川普正式簽署台灣旅行法...是在打'台灣牌'...政府浸淫...的喜悅,只要一天就好..."

林中斌 2018.03.19

 

中國的領導班子底定了,透過這些人物面孔,未來五年,對岸的政經政策輪廓,已可逐步勾勒而出。果然出任國家副主席的王岐山,今後將主責中國最艱鉅的對美關係工作,儘管不按傳統國際政治牌理出牌的川普總統,近來好似不斷對習政權給出下馬威,但是面對勢必詭譎的這場博弈,台灣一定要提高警覺。

因為,台灣是局中人,不是旁觀者,不能只是輕鬆的看戲。不講別的,當美國急吼吼地要求中國削減一千億美元順差,否則不惜貿易戰開打的同時,川普正式簽署台灣旅行法案,鼓勵台美各層級官員互訪,公開提升兩國的實質關係,這個舉動,不必懷疑,當然是在打「台灣牌」,彷彿是對著北京投出高速直球,就看習近平要如何揮棒。

很清楚的,川普的目標是美國利益,「台灣牌」是他梭哈(show hand)中國的另一手。因此,政府浸淫在台灣旅行法的喜悅,只要一天就好,必須馬上集中精神掌握美中之間一切的進退,以確認台灣利益是否維持在最大化。尤其是王岐山這個人現在派上檯面,按照他過去的履歷,以及季辛吉與美國政商界長期與之打交道的觀感,他具有為中國化妝的「能力」(論理)與「實力」(籌碼),我們絕對不能大意。

這陣子,中國國台辦叫囂台灣不要「挾洋自重」,事實上,剛好相反。特別在台灣議題上,這是自一九七二年以來,中美三公報一路的本質,非得拉著美國跟他複誦一個中國,否則中國好似就無法存在一般,台灣有腦袋的人,一定要注意中國接下來會如何「挾洋自重」。

王岐山,肯定是個挾洋的高手。二一五年,政治經濟學家福山到中南海與時任中紀委書記的王岐山有番會面,相當能反映王岐山的性格,不論外界能否同意他「中國的事情運行要很慎重」,「不能讓十三億人走懸崖峭壁」的辯護,或者即使對其所謂「司法一定要在黨的領導之下進行,這是中國特色」嗤之以鼻,也不得不承認,這名掃遍政敵的「反腐沙皇」,不但至今未被推翻,還按照習王兩人的既定劇本,一步一步,毫無偏差的,走上了讓世界開口忘闔的境地。這樣的對手,台灣勢必要有所認識。

一個研究中國歷史的人,居然可以成為處理中國經貿危機的領導人,有人這樣描繪王岐山:務實面對中國的問題,深入研究,提出解決。戰略與戰術分得清楚,明白什麼是不可讓的底線,什麼又是可以犧牲的短期利益。就算以上這是高壓統治下的溢美之詞,但是在台灣普遍看短不看長的政治文化下,我們的政治菁英需要自問,在此後的美中台棋局中,台灣維護獨立自主的戰略與戰術又是什麼?

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記者引述錯誤、誤置、及漏寫

鍾麗華 自由時報 March 19, 2018

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1185089

accessed March 19, 2018

 

《自由時報》2018319A2
記者引述錯誤
"陳在陸委會任前(誤寫為任內),曾到對岸三十多次..."
記者誤置
"林中斌提醒陳明通"
在下沒有提醒陳主委,只是分享觀察,是記者假我名提醒陳。
記者漏寫(或不敢寫)
2000-2004
時的陳副主委私下對鄙人所表示的長遠未來兩岸發展看法是非常務實的。

林中斌 2018.3.19

 

 

陸委會主委陳明通今天上任,前陸委會副主委林中斌提醒,中國對台政策是長期規劃,不僅祭出對台三十一項措施,而且拉攏台灣的大學生、中學生,最近也看到中國積極與台灣小學生交流,中國軟手促統已翻天覆地來台,政府應做好準備,並以前瞻性的長期戰略來思考兩岸政策。

 

林中斌提醒陳明通注意

林中斌表示,他與陳明通曾在二千年至二○○二年在陸委會共事,陳在陸委會副主委任內,曾到對岸三十多次,堪稱是民進黨裡最了解中國的學者,陳對未來兩岸看法非常務實,與外面的印象截然不同。

林中斌說,雖然陳在前年政黨輪替沒有入閣,但一直提供執政團隊兩岸政策的建議與各種評估。林的消息來源告訴林,陳明通在去年中共十九大前曾給總統蔡英文一份報告,完全預測七名中國政治局常委名單,非常不簡單。林也說,陳明通對兩岸談判有個研究團隊,有一些想法與規劃、準備,陳也一直在琢磨這個問題。

林中斌提醒陳明通,中國對台政策是長期規劃,從去年十二月底,有人在台北、桃園、宜蘭等地,陸續看到穿著中國制服的小學生,與台灣的小學進行交流,這不像是零零星星的個案,而是經過縝密的規劃;如果對岸鎖定的目標是小五的學生,到了二四九年、中共建政一百年時,這群小學生已經四十一歲,正是社會中堅,面對中國如此長期的規劃,台灣是否已準備好了?

熟悉陳明通的人士表示,陳明通從一九九年代就開始赴中交流,在學界與實務界累積二十八年與中國交流、交往經驗,陳明通也因此累積豐富的人脈,而中國涉台系統對他並不陌生,包括張志軍、王毅都曾與陳接觸過。

淡江大學中國大陸研究所副教授張五岳表示,陳明通可在短時間掌握蔡總統的兩岸政策,也清楚民進黨對中國政策與兩岸關係的思維,今年是選舉年,相信陳擔任陸委會主委,可以讓泛綠支持者正面看待。不過,影響兩岸關係的因素非常多,不能單從兩岸人事佈局來看,包括中美互動、國際關係、區域問題等,都必須考量。

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北京對台 軟手為實 硬手為虛

林中斌 名人堂稿件

日期:20180307

本文字數:1100

目標字數:1100

 

一四年三月爆發「太陽花學運」。七月,當時民進黨主席蔡英文塑造「天然獨」一詞,指支持獨立的青年。兩年後,她當選總統,「天然獨」功不可沒。

一五年一月,北京國務院推出「國家級創業基金」,以兩千億台幣吸引台灣青年。一六年七月十八日《商業週刊》報導:在東莞創業的台灣青年說,「他們提供免費辦公室、公寓、並附贈新台幣一百萬元創業啟動基金,免還。」一七年十一月二日《自由時報》登載:一六年底,對岸十二省市已成立四十一青創基地,入駐台資一千兩百家,吸引超過六千名台灣青年在當地就業,而地方政府自行設立二百多青創基地。

一八年一月二日,《天下雜誌》公布民調:「統一」選項首度上揚;自認台灣人的比例,下滑至五年新低。卅到卅九歲世代,支持獨立的從一七年的五十四點三趴,滑落至卅七點三趴。支持緩統的創近十年來新高,達到十三點八趴,較一七年的八點二趴顯著成長。願意去大陸工作的,有卅七點五趴,一○年來的新高點。其中廿到廿九歲者最高,達到四十三點八趴。標題是「天然獨鬆動」。

類似的民調結果,也見於一七年十一月二日《聯合報》,及今年二月十二日《遠見》。是否媒體因偏見而危言聳聽?即使民調結果屬實,是否民主自由可保台灣對抗中共?

《自由時報》不認為是。去年十一月廿二日社論:「先進國家卻已…(擁)抱中國的市場與工廠,連台灣商界也有人宣稱民主不能當飯吃。…本土政權執政,台灣認同反顯衰退…。」

前民進黨官員游盈隆博士主持的「台灣民意基金會」在去年十二月卅一日公佈民調結果:當月對蔡英文有好感的人民達四十六點九四趴;而前月對習近平有好感的達五十一點五二趴,高於蔡近五趴!

去年十月中共十九大之前,北京對台兩手策略試點。硬的有機艦繞台、巴拿馬斷交,限縮非邦交國活動,官方卻否認施壓意圖。軟的有磁吸台灣青年、專業人才、禮遇我退役官兵等操之在它的作為。十九大之後,北京一度同時加強對台兩手策略。春節前改為:軟手為主,硬手為輔,惠台擴大,壓台低調。終於在二二八高規格推出卅一項全面的「惠台措施」。

北京思維可能是:硬手策略下,台灣人民無感,甚至反感。而軟手策略下,台灣民意逆轉,突破了過去廿多年來北京對台工作的瓶頸。台灣的民主政府若禁止人民西向移動,困難重重。台灣民意若持續改變,政府抗拒調整兩岸政策會異常艱辛。

北京目前對台是:硬手防獨,軟手促統。未來可能是:硬手為虛,軟手為實。

因為硬手對促統無效,只是分散我注意力,消耗我有限資源購買昂貴武器以防共軍登台。而我真正需要的武器,賣主卻不斷拖拉。

北京對台軟手,一向被我忽略。北京認為「買台灣比打台灣便宜」的拙見一直未成我主流思維。情形有如:我部署重兵於西岸,而敵於東岸登陸,如入無人之境。

正視此挑戰是時候了。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長,甫發表新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》

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學者:汪洋將貫徹對台兩手策略

鍾麗華 自由時報 March 15, 2018

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1184000

accessed March 15, 2018

●"未來中國促統力度更大、範圍更廣、方式更多,'從反獨的守式,轉為促統的攻勢'...。"

●昨天聯合報名人堂登載拙作"北京對台,軟手為實,硬手為虛"之後,自由時報來電訪問。此篇為訪問之結果。

●記者文字掌握中肯。

林中斌 2018.3.15

〔記者鍾麗華/台北報導〕中共政治局常委汪洋接任政協第十三屆全國委員會主席,並兼任中共中央對台工作領導小組副組長。陸委會前副主委林中斌認為,汪洋一向給人的印象是非常靈活、務實,相信汪會貫徹中共總書記習近平對台的兩手策略,並加強促統的力道;在中國祭出惠台三十一項措施後,台灣政府須正視北京「買台灣比打台灣便宜」的思維。

 

靈活、務實強化促統力道

林中斌指出,他從很多訊息管道聽到,習對於過去涉台工作硬邦邦、「寧左勿右」的做法很不滿意,相信汪洋未來在對台上會展現更靈活的執行方式,不會像過去那麼僵化;雖然中國對台基本立場不會改,但汪洋一定會包裝得不是那麼「霸氣」,以隱藏背後的促統動機。

 

林中斌強調,北京目前對台是「硬手防獨、軟手促統」,未來可能是「硬手為虛、軟手為實」,他們知道硬手對促統無效,只會引起台灣人民無感、甚至反感,因此才高規格推出三十一項惠台措施。未來也會看到中國促統力度更大、範圍更廣、方式更多,「從『反獨』的守勢,轉為『促統』的攻勢」,台灣面臨的挑戰超乎現在。

 

淡江大學中國大陸研究所副教授張五岳分析,汪洋在國務院副總理任內,是中美經濟安全對話的中方負責人,而即將接任國台辦主任的劉結一曾任中國常駐聯合國代表,過去國台辦主任沒人有駐美經驗,「這是北京有史以來最瞭解美國的涉台團隊」。對北京而言,在兩岸現今沒有政治互信與溝通管道下,利用對美工作、透過美國來管控兩岸關係。

 

不過張五岳認為,中國對台政策是要看習的理念、意志與布局,其他人都是執行者、貫徹者。在十九大後的四個月,中國祭出三十一項惠台措施,橫跨三十一個部委,若不是習的意志,以國台辦的層級很難去協調。雖然卸任與新任的涉台團隊,都是在執行習的政策,但在十九大後的開局之年,面對新情勢與新格局,以及中美關係、區域局勢的變化,習對涉台團隊的要求也會隨之調整。

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