Birds Beware: The praying Mantis Wants Your Brain

Natalie Angier, New York Times September 22, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/science/praying-mantis-eating-birds.html?mwrsm=Facebook

accessed September 23, 2017

螳螂吃蜂鳥

螳螂吃蜂鳥!!

也吃更大的鳥!
科學家已收集了147個實例,遍佈6大洲,只差南極洲。
其中有兩例是母螳螂在交配時吃鳥!!
母螳螂食量巨大,因為要攝取足夠蛋白質製造螳螂卵。她身體一半重量都是卵,多達400個。
當蛋白攝取不足時,交配完就把老公下肚。如此可轉化為60新卵,或增加20%卵。
螳螂是唯一頭可以轉動的昆蟲,也是眼睛是3-D 的昆蟲。

林中斌摘譯 2017.9.29

 

 

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The Democrats’ Dilemma

accessed September 28, 2017

 

川普總統可能連任,如果民主黨無法自我整合。目前,民主黨是分裂的。時代雜誌2017.10.2 pp.28-33.
"
撥雲見日"出版前,我考慮再三,決定刪去"川普可能連任"的文字。

林中斌 2017.9.28

 

 

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西裝外套這顆扣子千萬別扣!男人不該犯的10項西裝迷思

http://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/76611

accessed September 27, 2017

 

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何其巧合?

accessed September 22, 2017

 

-- 2017.9.6 太陽射出有記錄以來第8強閃焰。

-- 2017.9.7 墨西哥百年強震。

-- 2011.12.30年在下出版"大災變"。其中引述越來越多的研究,顯示太陽磁爆(包括太陽閃焰)引發地磁風爆,再觸發(trigger)大地震。(pp.235-243)

-- 20134月美國官方的"地質調查所"(USGS)學者Dr. Jeffrey Love"太陽活動和地震無明顯關聯"

-- 2017.9.18 在下交稿給聯合報名人堂拙作"太陽磁爆、大地震並無關聯?”

-- 2017.9.19 墨西哥再度強震,已知死亡逾兩百五十人。

-- 2017.9.21拙作刊出。內容附下。

敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.9.22

 

-- 墨西哥當地時間2017919日發生規模7.1的強震,死亡已確認有217人。(聯合報2017.9.21A1)

-- 拙作 "太陽磁爆、大地震並無關聯?" (聯合報2017.9.21A15)

"太陽磁爆、大地震並無關聯?"

林中斌

名人堂稿件

日期:20170919 本文字數1100 目標字數:1100

 

九月六日中午(UTC世界標準時間,下同),平靜許久的太陽突然射出十二年來最大的閃焰。它等於十億顆氫彈爆炸,面積為地球直徑七倍,強度是X九點三(X9.3),甚至超過十二年前X9的閃焰。

太陽閃焰的強度由下往上訂為ABCMX的等級,每級中又以阿拉伯數字大小表示強弱。

太陽閃焰之後,巨大的電漿火球,以每秒一千公里的速度拋向太空,重十億噸,是電磁粒子混雜了X光和各種致死的放射線,叫做「日冕物質拋射」(簡稱CME)。並非所有的CME都射向地球,而飛向地球的CME,快則十幾小時,慢則三、四天抵達地球。

一般所謂的「太陽磁爆」其實包括太陽閃焰及CME

九月七日深夜,九月六日閃焰拋出的CME到達地球。

七日深夜,墨西哥發生百年來最強的地震,八點二級,死亡至少九十六人。

何其巧合?其實,強烈太陽磁爆後,地球有強震,先例不少。

二○一一年三月九日,有X1.5太陽閃焰。其CME十日抵達地球,十一日爆發日本本州九級大地震。同年二月十五日,有X2太陽閃焰,三日後其CME抵達地球,七日後紐西蘭基督城爆發六點三級強震。

人類於一九九六年開始記錄太陽閃焰強度。今年九月六日之太陽閃焰強度排名第八。排名第一的X28太陽閃焰時間為○三年十一月一日,其CME不只使瑞典斷電,還損壞日本價值美元六點四億的ADEO-2衛星。之後一個月內,發生十三個六級以上的地震。排名第二的X20太陽閃焰時間為○一年四月二日。那年四月,有十一個六級以上的地震。在冠軍及亞軍太陽閃焰之後,大地震密集發生,頻率遠超過統計的正常值。

然而,一三年四月,美國地質調查所(USGS)Dr. Jeffrey Love說太陽活動和地震沒有「統計學上顯著的關聯」。果真如此嗎?

一九六七年,美國阿克倫大學地質學者Dr. John F. Simpson發表過論文「太陽活動是引發地震的機制」。○六年,義大利拿波里斯大學科學家L. de Arcangelis比較九二至○二年美國南加州地震和太陽閃焰。發現兩者非常類似,可以說太陽閃焰相當於太陽上的地震。他甚至婉轉的說,「驅動兩者的機制可能是同一個來源」。

○七年印度太空部科學家R. Jain發表研究:每一個地震之前十到一百小時一定有一個太陽閃焰,但是每一個太陽閃焰之後十到一百小時,不一定有個四級以上的地震。而太陽閃焰愈強,之後地震發生的時間就愈快。

同年,俄羅斯科學院的S. D. Odintsov教授發現:在太陽黑子活動起伏的十一年週期裡,在高峰後第二年,地球上地震的能量釋放的最多。太陽活動和地震發生有明顯關連。

○八年,奧地利因斯布魯克的國際科學院副院長Elchin N. Khalilov率領保加利亞科學院學者教授V.E.Khain發表論文「關於太陽活動可能對地震及火山的影響」。他們發現太陽活動和地球上地震及火山活動的確有關連。

一四年二月亞塞拜然首都巴庫天文台台長 Namig Jalilov說:「從統計數據看,地震強度和太陽活動有直接的關聯。」

保守的USGS看法,遲早會被新的證據和研究所超越。

作者為《大災變》作者、曾任美國Manville公司資深地質師、華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授、及國防部副部長

 

 

 

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林彪曾向蔣輸誠

宋秉忠 旺報 2017年9月21

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170921000744-260309

accessed September 25, 2017

●此文誤指美國人Peter Hannam為「前蘇聯特工」。他之前是美國期刊”U.S. News & World Report”(1980-1990年代)記者。

1985年左右在下在喬治城大學以博士生身份教「中國軍事理論與實踐(Chinese Military Theory and Practice)」曾請林邁可(Sir Michael Lindsay)來班上客座。林邁可是世襲英國貴族,曾協助延安毛澤東設立無線電,娶中共女士為妻。

●Peter Hannam與林邁可孫女Susan Lawrence交往。在下因此得以與Hannam談到他對林彪死亡之研究。

當時蘇聯解體,負責林彪墜機之軍官與前赴俄羅斯或蒙古旅行之Peter Hannam談到林彪飛機殘骸及林彪屍骨X-ray照片等。

在下建議Hannam與我國前軍情局局長張式琦將軍聯絡,因在下好友已故之廖文中先生曾告訴在下有關林彪託人給蔣公之私函。

廖協助Hannam與旅居美國西岸之張式琦將軍見面。

●20136月在下受邀在澳洲雪梨大學演講(Sidney Ideas系列演講)時,Hannam前往並在演講後上前致意。

林中斌 2017.9.25

 

 

Peter Hannam, Environment Editor at The Sydney Morning Herald. He covers broad environmental issues ranging from climate change to renewable energy for Fairfax Media.

 

Susan V. Lawrence is a specialist in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service (CRS), a division of the Library of Congress created to provide the US Congress with authoritative, non-partisan research and analysis. Her work focuses on US-China relations, Chinese domestic politics, Chinese foreign policy, and Mongolia. Lawrence joined CRS after a career spent largely in journalism. She worked as a staff reporter in Beijing and in Washington, DC for the Far Eastern Economic Review, The Wall Street Journal, and U.S. News & World Report.

 

林邁可(Sir Michael Lindsay)於延安協助毛澤東設立無線電,全名「麥可·弗朗西斯·莫里斯·林賽,貝克爾的林賽男爵二世」(Michael Francis Morris Lindsay, 2nd Baron Lindsay of Birker 1909224-1994213日),是一位英國貴族、學者、中國抗日戰爭的參加者,作家。

 

林邁可(Sir Michael Lindsay)及其妻子結婚照

 

1971913日,毛澤東指定接班人林彪和他的妻子葉群及兒子林立果搭機外逃,但在蒙古溫都爾汗附近的貝爾赫礦區南10公里處墜機;據前蘇聯特工彼得.漢那姆(Peter Hannam)的調查,林彪的飛機起飛後,首先是向東南方、台灣的方向,而證諸林彪早在196611月就託人帶親筆信向在台灣的蔣介石輸誠,他有可能是想飛往台灣。

 

漢那姆在〈SolvedThe Mystery Of Lin Biao's Death〉(解開林彪死亡之謎)一文披露,196611月,一名來自大陸的信使蕭正義親手把信交給住在香港的原後勤司令周由,蕭告訴周這封信是林彪(中共中央副主席)和陶鑄(中共中央政治局常委)寫的。周由和林彪都是黃埔四期生,在校時睡同一張床,周上鋪、林下鋪,兩人關係甚好,周認得林的筆跡,而且信中提到只有林周兩人才知道的戰場瑣事,因此,斷定信是林彪親筆所寫。

 

提戰場瑣事 斷定身分

 

隨後,周的兒子將此信交給時任國防部情報局長張式琦,張將信交給時任國防部長蔣經國,蔣經國把信交給蔣介石。

 

林彪的信只有兩頁,重點包括由於毛疑心重,他和陶的地位危險,並請求免除過去的罪責。經過周密討論,蔣介石決定叫人回信給林彪,由張式琦轉告周由要寫的內容,並將回信轉交給蕭,而蕭於19671月回大陸。之後,蕭從上海又送了第2封信,表示林彪已經知道信的內容了,並且「想法還和以前一樣」。

 

2封信發出後,從大陸來的消息就停止,但國民黨仍然相信他們在北京最高層裡有個盟友。

 

文革動盪 林怕被打倒

 

但令人不解的是,1966年,正是林彪和毛澤東的蜜月期,為什麼他還要冒險寫一封可能暴露的信?漢那姆認為,可能的答案是權傾一時的陶鑄被打倒,陶是林的盟友,他被打倒,讓林明白在動盪的文化大革命中,沒有誰的地位是穩固的。

 

而且,早在1966年初毛寫信給他的妻子江青,懷疑林的忠誠;巧的是,這封信曾由周恩來轉交給陶鑄去複印,而陶一定會提醒林。

 

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Could Improved Ties between Singapore and Beijing Bring An End to City State’s Military Links with Taiwan?

Minnie Chan South China Morning Post 2017/09/14

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2112278/could-improved-ties-between-singapore-and-beijing-bring

accessed September 23, 2017

南華早報九月廿一日報導:有關李顯龍在訪問北京之下,台灣新光計劃之前景。值得注意的有兩點:

1.接近北京軍方人士說:結束(termination)新光計劃不可能。但是暫停(suspension)是可能的。

2.新加坡已經與五個國家安排借用他們場地訓練新加坡軍隊: 澳洲、Brunei文萊?、德國、印度、及美國。新加坡去年已與澳洲簽約付出22.5億元美金獲得在Queensland 軍事訓練的場地。

另外,報導提到在下的回應(可以預期的):

"如果您所問的發展屬實,那就是再一次北京對台灣國際空間的緊縮。"

林中斌摘要 2017.9.23

 

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  • Sep 25 Mon 2017 12:23
  • 緣份

緣份

accessed September 23, 2017

 

超過一年等待規劃才得和蘇冠群相聚。然而又再一次偶然與巧合的和Ivy 登山相遇。兩項緣份交會於七星山!!人生的奇妙!!

林中斌 2017.9.23

 

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Optimism over China

Keith Bradsher, International New York Times, September 13, 2017

accessed September 13, 2017

陸多項指標衰退

梁世煌 旺報 2017915

https://ctee.com.tw/News/Content.aspx?id=837287&yyyymmdd=20170915&h=76e777813df49eba605aaccd339dbc2b

accessed September 15, 2017

 

●中國經濟轉好。原來唱衰中國經濟言論轉向。

●表面原因是:1.人民幣強勢,匯率升值。

              2.股票市場上升。

●深層原因是:1.北京嚴格限制金錢外流。

              2.北京嚴打中國菁英在國際上浪費金錢購買公司、房地產等。

●外交效應:川普原先指責北京故意壓低人民幣對美金匯率,但因人民幣升值,此指責則失去力度。

林中斌 2017.9.15

 

”...Some vocal naysayers say the country has found ways to contain its problems.”

”Maybe China is the black swan and everything we know does not apply to China,” said Zhu Ning, a Tsinghua University economist who published a book last year critical of how the government has managed rising bank debt.

Chong-Pin Lin September 15, 2017

 

NYT唱旺中國經濟,北京自己唱衰中國經濟。為何?「能而示之不能」?

林中斌 2017.9.15

 

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Spies Like Us: To Understand Britain, Read Its Spy Novels

Economist, September 9, 2017

https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21728650-nature-establishment-agonies-decline-complicated-tug-patriotism-spy

accessed September 9, 2017

 

●英國間諜小說之大師作者如007的佛萊明(Ian Flemming)和《鍋匠、裁縫、士兵、間諜》的勒卡雷(John Le Carré)都實際上做過間諜。

20世紀英國文學大師也多做過間諜:如毛姆(William Somerset Maugham),格林(Graham Greene)

●最妙的是1992-96主持英國情報組織M15的女爵士雷明頓(Stella Rimington)退休後也開始寫間諜小說。

林中斌 摘錄 2017.9.15

 

Not only Ian Flemming of James Bond’s fame and John Le Carré who created George Smiley had been actual spies.

But also, great literature figures such as Somerset Maugham and Graham Greene had worked as spies.

Even Dame Stella Rimington, head of M15 in 1992-96, has taken to writing spy novels in retirement.

Chong-Pin Lin September 15, 2017

Ian Lancaster Fleming (28 May 1908 – 12 August 1964). As handsome as James Bond. He was in real life a womanizer, having a mistress in each of the big city. He died at 56.

 

David John Moore Cornwell, alias John le Carré (born 19 October 1931) is a British author of espionage novels. During the 1950s and the 1960s, he worked for both the Security Service and the Secret Intelligence Service, and began writing novels under his pen name.

 

William Somerset Maugham (25 January 1874 – 16 December 1965), better known as W. Somerset Maugham, was a British playwright, novelist and short story writer. He was among the most popular writers of his era and reputedly the highest-paid author during the 1930s.

 

Henry Graham Greene (2 October 1904 – 3 April 1991), better known by his pen name Graham Greene, was an English novelist regarded by many as one of the great writers of the 20th century. He was shortlisted, in 1966 and 1967, for the Nobel Prize for Literature.

 

Dame Stella Rimington  Dame Stella Rimington (born 13 May 1935) is a British author and former Director General of MI5, a position she held from 1992 to 1996.

 

        FEW countries have dominated any industry as Britain has dominated the industry of producing fictional spies. Britain invented the spy novel with Rudyard Kipling’s dissection of the Great Game in “Kim” and John Buchan’s adventure stories. It consolidated its lead with Somerset Maugham’s Ashenden stories and Graham Greene’s invention of “Greeneland”. It then produced the world’s two most famous spooks: James Bond, the dashing womaniser, and George Smiley, the cerebral cuckold, who reappears this week in a new book.

 

        What accounts for this success? One reason is the revolving door between the secret establishment and the literary establishment. Some of the lions of British literature worked as spies. Maugham was sent to Switzerland to spy for Britain under cover of pursuing his career as a writer. Greene worked for the intelligence services. Both Ian Fleming, the creator of Bond, and John le Carré, the creator of Smiley, earned their living as spies. Dame Stella Rimington, head of MI5 in 1992-96, has taken to writing spy novels in retirement. It is as if the secret services are not so much arms of the state as creative-writing schools.

 

        Another reason is that British reality has often been stranger than fiction. The story of the “Cambridge spies”—Kim Philby, Anthony Blunt, Guy Burgess and the rest—is as far-fetched as it gets. One Soviet mole at the top of MI6 (Philby, who also worked for The Economist in Beirut); another even looking after the queen’s pictures (Blunt); a cover-up; a dash to the safety of the Soviet Union; larger-than-life characters such as the compulsively promiscuous and permanently sozzled Burgess.

There is also a more profound reason for Britain’s success. The spy novel is the quintessential British fictional form in the same way that the Western is quintessentially American. Britain’s best spy novelists are so good precisely because they use the genre to explore what it is that makes Britain British: the obsession with secrecy, the nature of the establishment, the agonies of imperial decline and the complicated tug of patriotism.

 

        Britain is honeycombed with secretive institutions, particularly public schools and Oxbridge colleges, which have their own private languages. At Eton, for example, where Fleming was educated and Mr le Carré taught for a while, boys dress in tailcoats and call their teachers “beaks” and their terms “halves”. Walter Bagehot argued (approvingly) that Britain weaves duplicity into its statecraft. The constitution rests on a distinction between an “efficient” branch which governs behind the scenes, and a “dignified” branch which puts on a show for the people.

 

        The British habitually wear masks to conceal their true selves. They put on different costumes for different roles in Bagehot’s theatre of state, and keep stiff upper lips to conceal their emotions. Mr le Carré (whose real name is David Cornwell) learned to put on a brave face at school because he was so embarrassed by his father, who was a professional confidence trickster. Greene learned the spymaster’s art when, as a pupil at Berkhamsted School, he acted as an informer for his father, the headmaster.

 

        The British establishment is not only a perfect machine for producing secrets and lies. It also produces the mavericks and misfits who thrive in the secret world. Establishment types seem to come in two varieties: smooth conformists who do everything by the rules, and mavericks who break every rule but are nevertheless tolerated because they are members of the club. The first type is sent into the Foreign Office and the second into MI6. The best spy novels are like distorting mirrors in fairgrounds: by exaggerating this or that feature of Establishment Man, they allow the reader to understand the ideal form.

 

        The other great theme in British spy novels is geopolitical decline. How can people who were “trained to Empire, trained to rule the waves”, as one of Mr le Carré’s characters puts it, bear to live in a world in which the waves are ruled by other powers and statecraft is reduced to providing fuel for the welfare state? Fleming’s novels are full of laments about Britain’s “crumbling empire” and its dependency-producing state. “You have not only lost a great empire,” Tiger Tanaka, a Japanese spy, tells Bond, “you have seemed almost anxious to throw it away with both hands.” Mr le Carré once described Britain as a country where “failed socialism is being replaced by failed capitalism”. The Circus, as he called the secret service’s headquarters, is a physical manifestation of decline: cramped, shoddy, reeking of rising damp, just one hasty repair away from collapse.

 

        Nobody does it better

        Why remain loyal to a country that has made such a mess of things and to an establishment soaked in hypocrisy? Mr le Carré’s traitors (like the Cambridge spies who inspired them) betray their country not for money but because they have transferred their patriotism to the Soviet Union. But what makes Britain’s best spy novels so good is that they toy with disillusionment only to reject it. For all its faults, they say, Britain is the best of a bad lot. Bond is so besotted with his country that he boasts that “British food is the best in the world”. For all his professed Europeanness in the new novel, Smiley is the model of a British gentleman.

 

        And spying provides Britain with a way of reclaiming its greatness, by excelling in the most sophisticated form of foreign policy. The Americans have the money and the bluster, but the British have the brains to spend it wisely and restrain the Americans from going over the top. Felix Leiter, Bond’s opposite number in the CIA, admits that Bond is playing “in a bigger league” than he is. Smiley is more subtle than his “cousins” in America. The secret at the heart of the British spy novel is that Britain is much better than it seems. The writers agonise over decline and hypocrisy, only to conclude that the British are cleverer and more civilised than anybody else. A comforting illusion wrapped in a tale of disillusionment: you can’t get more British than that.

 

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拉古薩:自由繁榮和平的小國

林中斌 聯合報 201796A15

https://udn.com/news/story/7340/2684904

accessed September 7, 2017

 

●碧海、藍天、紅瓦、白崖。

    南歐巴爾幹半島的古堡港都杜伯尼克(Dubrovnik)是近年世界旅遊熱點。各國人士,像潮水般的穿梭於光滑的白玉大道,進出王宮高牆,笙歌達旦。九○年初南斯拉夫內戰的彈孔和燒焦的樑棟已成褪色的記憶遠去。和平繁榮真是美好!

    這獲得「亞得里亞海之珠」美稱的渡假勝地曾是「拉古薩共和國」(Republic of Ragusa 以下簡稱拉古薩)所在地。其歷史(一三五八至一八○八)長達四百五十年,壽命超過了漢朝(四二二年)、唐朝(二八九年)、宋朝(三一九年)、明朝(二七六年)、清朝(二六八年)

    拉古薩靠航海貿易立國,不靠武力,但在周邊強權覬覦下維持獨立,享有自由、和平與繁榮。它立國的格言遍示於國門和船隊國旗上¬:「天下金買,自由不賣。」它屹立不搖的秘訣何在?

●謙遜中立的外交: 拉古薩建國之前曾是當時海上強權威尼斯的領土,但人民渴望自由,日益不滿。一三五八年,威尼斯敗於陸上強權匈牙利。拉古薩的貴族們在匈牙利的保護下獨立建國,拉古薩名義上是匈牙利的屬國,向匈牙利進貢,但實際上充分自主。

    一四五八年,匈牙利敗於鄂圖曼帝國。於是,信奉天主教的拉古薩成為信奉伊斯蘭教的鄂圖曼帝國的屬國。雖然每年進貢,拉古薩依然自主,商船掛自己國旗,可任意與他國簽約。此外,拉古薩商船在鄂圖曼帝國勢力範圍內航行無阻,享有關稅全免等優待。同時,拉古薩成為西歐天主教國家與鄂圖曼帝國貨物交流的橋樑。雙方都因為拉古薩自由港而獲益。

    十六世紀末期,海上強權西班牙帝國崛起。拉古薩把商船置於西班牙帝國的保護下。條件是,拉古薩參與西班牙帝國的海上軍事行動不能抵觸鄂圖曼帝國的利益。

    一六八三年,鄂圖曼帝國敗於奧地利帝國。從次年起,拉古薩成為鄂圖曼帝國和奧地利帝國的雙屬國,依然保持自主,並嚴守中立,歷經一七五六至六三「七年之戰」等都不變。一八○八年,拿破崙席捲歐陸,精彩的拉古薩共和國才結束。

●開明先進的內政:拉古薩由貴族統治但一四一八年便廢除奴隸制,高度尊重自由。一三○一年引入醫療服務。一三四七年開設老人收容所。一三七七年開設傳染病隔離醫院。一四三二年開設孤兒院。這些社會措施都走在時代前端。

●融合互助的族群: 拉古薩原分互相敵視的拉丁和斯拉夫族群,十二世紀前分住城市的兩側,中間有沼澤相隔。後來,雙方言和,填起窪地變成城市中心的廣場。相互往來,不再分彼此。

●活躍國際的公民:一四九七年,拉古薩與興起的法國簽約通商。兩國文武人才頻繁的交流。許多拉古薩貴族活躍於巴黎大學(Sorbonne)。一六八三年,鄂圖曼帝國敗於奧地利帝國。為奧地利帝國打敗鄂圖曼帝國的野戰元帥竟然是拉古薩貴族袞杜利區(Frano Đivo Gundulić)。一八○○年,拉古薩在國際上八十多城市及海港駐有外交官。

    對也是小國的台灣而言,以上歷史難道毫無啟發?

    作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長,甫發表新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》

 

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