How to Win Over Your Reader
2008.4.21- 5.2/revision 2010.3.29
China may overtake the U.S. economy
sooner than expected.
Former Deputy Defense Minister, Taiwan, and Professor,
Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic
Studies, Tamkang University in Taipei
Since the end of the 1990s, China’s economy has continued to outperform pessimistic forecasts. Several factors favoring the country’s resilient growth have been under-appreciated. First, for an expanding economy, China’s is the largest in scale in human history. Rules in textbooks based on past observations of comparatively smaller economies do not apply. For example, while the global financial crisis in late 2008 hit China’s export-oriented coastal provinces, the inland provinces were hardly affected by the economic downturn of the outside world. The latter then worked as a cushion for the slowdown of China’s economy which began to rebound by mid-2009.
林中斌：崛起經濟 規模空前 課本失靈
標題: Don't Break the Engagement.
作者： Economy, Elizabeth, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, May/Jun2004, 卷 83, 刊號 3
Don't Break the Engagement
STAYING THE COURSE ON CHINA
AFTER ALMOST three years of calm, the American debate over China policy is set to heat up again. Like Bill Clinton, George W. Bush came into office pushing for a tougher approach to Beijing. And like his predecessor, Bush soon changed his tune. But if the Clinton administration's shift reflected a deep-rooted embrace of the logic of engagement, the Bush administration's shift has appeared more tactical, reflecting a realist appreciation for alliances of convenience during times of crisis. Now that the initial and most urgent phases of the war on terrorism have passed, China policy is likely to find its way back onto the agenda of hard-liners who consider the country a strategic competitor. They are likely to be joined by those who think that tough talk about trade deficits and China's human rights violations makes for good campaign politics. With the bilateral trade deficit now at $120 billion, Beijing's reported backsliding on human rights, and its heavy-handed diplomacy with Hong Kong and Taiwan, 2004 could be a banner year for the critics of engagement. Yet a return to China bashing and to a strategy of containment would be a mistake. The past 30 years have demonstrated that engagement works--if not exactly in the way its advocates predicted
標題: China's Search for Stability With America.
作者： Wang Jisi, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Sep/Oct2005, 卷 84, 刊號 5
China's Search for Stability With America
THE UNITED STATES is currently the only country with the capacity and the ambition to exercise global primacy, and it will remain so for a long time to come. This means that the United States is the country that can exert the greatest strategic pressure on China. Although in recent years Beijing has refrained from identifying Washington as an adversary or criticizing its "hegemonism"--a pejorative Chinese code word for U.S. dominance--many Chinese still view the United States as a major threat to their nation's security and domestic stability.
標題: China's New Diplomacy.
作者： Medeiros, Evan S., Fravel, M. Taylor, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Nov/Dec2003, 卷 82, 刊號
China's New Diplomacy
THIS SUMMER, as the nuclear crisis in North Korea intensified, most eyes were focused on the adversaries in Washington and Pyongyang.
Less noticed, but no less important, was the role of a third player: Beijing. China, long reticent on matters of foreign policy, had boldly stepped into the fray, suspending crucial oil shipments to North Korea, sending high-level envoys to Pyongyang, and shifting troops around the Sino-Korean border. It was China that arranged the tripartite talks held in Beijing in April. And China has not let up the pressure since.
標題: China Takes Off.
作者： Hale, David, Hughes Hale, Lyric, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Nov/Dec2003, 卷 82, 刊號 6
China Takes Off
FEW NATIONS have changed as fast--or as dramatically--as China has since the 1970s. The world's most populous nation has radically liberalized its economy and gone from producing low-quality and simple exports to sophisticated high-technology goods, while nurturing a vibrant private sector and attracting nearly $500 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI). The country has turned into a formidable exporting machine: China's total exports grew eightfold--to over $380 billion--between 1990 and 2003; and its exports in the electronics industry now account for 30 percent of Asia's total in that sector. China's share of global exports will reach 6 percent in 2003, compared to 3.9 percent in 2000. Last year, China accounted for 16 percent of the growth in the world economy, ranking second only to the United States.
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標題: The New New World Order.
作者： Drezner, Daniel W., Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Mar/Apr2007, 卷 86, 刊號 2HTML 全文
The New New World Order
RISING AND FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE twentieth century, the list of the world's great powers was predictably short: the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, and northwestern Europe. The twenty-first century will be different. China and India are emerging as economic and political heavyweights: China holds over a trillion dollars in hard currency reserves, India's high-tech sector is growing by leaps and bounds, and both countries, already recognized nuclear powers, are developing blue-water navies. The National Intelligence Council, a U.S. government think tank, projects that by 2025, China and India will have the world's second- and fourth-largest economies, respectively. Such growth is opening the way for a multipolar era in world politics.
回應2010-02-11 18:59:00 台灣醒報
林怡舟 孫吳比較 - 將相合
April 11, 2006
National and Capodistrian University of Athens
CHINA’S CROSS-STRAIT GO GAME
Taiwan was once considered an unequivocal success-story in achieving speedy and smooth democratization that both Americans and Taiwanese prided themselves on. Now, the island is encountering multiple challenges, none more severe than those from across the Taiwan Strait. And, democracy to Taiwan’s national security is both assets and liabilities.
BEIJING’S AGILE TACTICS ON TAIWAN
♣Conference on “The Political and Economic Reforms of Mainland China in a Changing Global Society”
♣College of Social Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei April 26, 2002
☻This is a draft. Citation or quotation requires the author’s approval.
The views expressed here are purely personal, and do not represent the ROC government, or any agency thereof.
On March 15, 2000, People’s Republic of China Premier Zhu Rongi put on an unforgettable performance at a press conference in Beijing.
Download link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzSUZrV2o2bktuQXM