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                                                                                                林中斌 2012.12.30 印度
 
北京將與達賴恢復接觸。”這是我在2012年10月31日聯合報名人堂“習近平與佛教”中所寫。但是我當時並不知道5天前印度報紙已登載習近平已在8月26日派人去德蘭沙拉見達賴。以下是那篇印度的報導。報導中蕭武南與大寶法王照片,來自蕭武南自己部落格,是他回北京後貼的。據進一步查證,蕭當時並不一定帶了習近平的信,但是他在德蘭沙拉時,口氣友善、樂觀、但不自誇,只是想瞭解德蘭沙拉方面的想法。這點與其他不少來自北京號稱代表某某領導的訪客完全不一樣。他應該是真正北京派來的人物。                                  
      “Beijing will resume contact with Dalai Lama” so wrote I in the October 31, 2012 oped entitled “Xi Jinping and Buddhism” in United Daily News. I, at the time, did not know that 5 days ago, an Indian news source had already published a report (see the following posting)revealing that Xi Jinping sent an envoy to Dharamsala to contact Dalai Lama on August 26. My further investigation suggests: Mr. Xiao Wunan might not have carried a letter from Xi Jinping to Dalai Lama, but he was courteous, optimistic, somewhat vague, intent on learning what Dharamsala’s thinking was, and did not claim to represent anyone important in Beijing which set him apart from many other namedropping visitors from Beijing who claimed to represent certain VIPs in Beijing. That made him look more like the real emissary.    
                                              
                                              Chong-Pin Lin Dec. 30, 2012 India

                                                                           
A concerned dragon: China fresh overture to Tibetans
 
Jayadeva Ranade | Agency: DNA | Friday, October 26, 2012

 
      As China prepares to usher in a new leadership at the 18th Party Congress scheduled to open in Beijing on November 8, there is mounting concern in senior echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the rising resentment in the ethnic Tibetan minority.

      Particularly worrying would have been the self-immolation on October 15, by the grandfather of the 10-year old Beijing-recognised VIIth Gungthang Rinpoche, which highlights the strained relationship between Tibetans and Communist authorities. A new feature is that recently thousands of Tibetans, disregarding heavy armed police presence, assemble at sites of the self-immolations to pray for the deceased and mark the spot.

                                                                   In a recent apparent bid to ease these tensions, Chinese authorities quietly sent an emissary and contacted Tibetan leaders in Dharamsala. Thinly cloaked as a venture of ‘Asia Pacific Exchange and Cooperation Foundation’ (APECF), a Chinese government-sponsored NGO manned by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) cadres, the initiative seeks to revive plans to consolidate and expand China’s presence in Nepal and ingress India and its border regions, ostensibly by encouraging Buddhist tourism in Lumbini in Nepal. At least one executive director of APECF has links to China’s military establishment.

      Xiao Wunan, a senior CCP cadre and executive vice president of APECF visited India and was received in Dharamsala on August 16 by the Dalai Lama, Lobsang Sangay, then ‘Kalon Tripa’ (prime minister) of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) and Ugyen Thinley Dorjee, who is formally approved by the Dalai Lama and Beijing as the XVIIth Gyalwa Karmapa, or head of the Karma Kargyu sect. Xiao Wunan was accompanied by Gong Tingyu, a Deputy Secretary General of APECF and Simon Kei Shek Ming, reportedly a journalist of the Hong Kong magazine Yazhou Zhoukan.

      During his meeting with the Dalai Lama, Xiao Wunan probably carried a personal message from a senior Chinese leader, possibly Xi Jinping. He could have informed the Dalai Lama that he was welcome to spend his last days in Beijing provided he gave up ‘anti-China’ activities and expressed support for the Communist regime.

      Xiao Wunan’s meeting with Lobsang Sangay, elected head of the CTA, is significant. It suggests Beijing may be willing to talk to its representatives. Lobsang Sangay is also ‘known’ to the UFWD for facilitating contacts between Chinese academics and the Dalai Lama. Coincidentally, within a month of the meeting the designation of the Head of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) was changed from ‘Kalon Tripa’ (or prime minister) to the less controversial — from Beijing’s perspective —’Sikyong’ (or political leader).

      Xiao Wunan’s meeting with Ugyen Thinley Dorjee reportedly ended abruptly when the monk took offence at the tenor of his questions. Xiao Wunan’s photograph with Ugyen Thinley Dorjee is, however, posted on APECF’s website.
 
     Xiao Wunan also visited Nalanda when he met officials of the proposed university and assured financial assistance. In Delhi he met officials in the Ministries of Culture and Tourism. Returning to Kathmandu, Xiao Wunan disingenuously announced that APECF now has the support of the Government of India and would be organising three and four-day package tours for Buddhist pilgrims travelling from Lumbini to India
.
      Interestingly, Xiao Wunan separated from an official Chinese delegation visiting Kathmandu to visit India. The Chinese delegation included Zou Lanming, vice general manager of the Lanzhou-based China Railway 21st Bureau. Xiao Wunan’s presence could suggest China plans to extend the railway from Xigaze to possibly Lumbini, on the border with India. A month later Xiao Wunan announced that APECF had signed an MoU with UK’s Vertical Theme Park (VTP) Group for a Lumbini Cloud Tower project, with the Nepal Government’s approval.
Nepal’s My Republica on October 11, reported the Nepal Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation’s denial that it was aware of any deal to develop Lumbini as an ‘international peace city’. Prachanda, leader of the Unified Communist Party-Marxist Leninist (UCP-ML), however, continues to be a vice president of APECF.

     Meanwhile the CCP’s policy governing Tibetans, of combining economic incentives with intense political persuasion, remains unchanged. In an unusually candid interview to the Party mouthpiece People’s Daily on September 21, 2012, Chen Quanguo, party secretary of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), enumerated the economic benefits extended to the people of Tibet. Disclosing measures to ensure ‘social stability’, he listed that 21,804 cadres had been sent to work in 5,451 administrative villages, that the Party had compiled complete sets of files and that 698 police stations had been established. All monasteries and temples now have photographs of the ‘four leaders’ (Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao), the national flag and a copy each of the People’s Daily and Tibet Daily. A project has also been started to ‘cultivate’ 100 senior monks and ‘guide’ Tibetan Buddhism to ‘adapt itself to socialist society’.

The author is a former additional secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India

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20121211中央廣播電台:兩岸風雲會(

 

西藏問題  林中斌:習近平將於任內展現新作為




廣播連結如下:

http://crs.ccdntech.com/rds/rd.htm?file=vod09/radio/news/1_20121211_1800_294_1.wma

http://mediafile.rti.org.tw/sound/selena/央廣兩岸風雲會-專訪林中斌教授2012-1211.mp3

中央廣播電台 尹涵


訪──前陸委會第一副主委、前國防部副部長․林中斌──1210日是諾貝爾和平獎頒獎的日子,也是國際人權日。昨天一天發生了很多事,包括數千名示威者於國際人權日聚集在紐約聯合國總部外,呼籲結束中共對西藏的統治。根據統計,自從2009年以來,已經有90多名藏人引火自焚,抗議北京當局對西藏的統治,其中至少75人傷重不治;而今年以來,自焚案件持續增加,單單11月就有28起。不過大陸外交部仍聲稱,西藏問題與人權、少數民族或宗教無關,並指控藏人自焚是由達賴喇嘛所煽動,強調在中國共產黨統治下,西藏享有史無前例的進步和權益。不過,大陸最高人民法院等機構最近定調藏區發生的自焚案件是「境內外敵對勢力相互勾連」,並對情節嚴重自焚者及教唆、幫助他人自焚者,都論罪處罰。四川警方日前更將1名喇嘛及其侄子,以煽動教唆自焚殺人罪逮捕到案。然而也是在昨天,又116歲的藏族少女在青海省自焚身亡。這也是藏人自焚事件以來,最年輕的自焚女孩。於此同時,在台流亡的西藏人士在中正紀念堂自由廣場舉辦絕食哀悼活動,悼念中共武裝鎮壓下犧牲的西藏同胞,其中有9名西藏青年在自由廣場已經絕食3天。而台聯立法院黨團則在昨天表示,將提案建議立法院邀請諾貝爾和平獎得主,也是西藏精神領袖達賴喇嘛來台,在國會發表演說,並呼籲馬英九總統不應該看北京的臉色不予以簽證。怎麼看中共新任總書記習近平上臺後,對西藏問題是否將有新的作風與思維?


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    “北京將與達賴恢復接觸。從○九年二月至今年十月廿二日自焚抗議的藏民已達五十七人。北京在習主政下較易瞭解:若不和溫和達賴談判,他過世後激進藏青竄起,漢藏仇恨將如以色列巴勒斯坦,無解。"

 

http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/57686118

 

林中斌,"近平與佛教”聯合報 2012.10.31 A4
 



http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/12/12/7/n3746890.htm%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6%E9%AB%98%E5%AE%98%E7%88%86%E4%B8%AD%E5%85%B1%E5%AF%86%E4%BD%BF%E6%99%A4%E8%BE%BE%E8%B5%96-%E5%B8%A6%E5%8E%BB%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%B9%A6%E4%BF%A1.html

 

20121207 印度高官爆中共密使晤達賴 帶去習近平書信

 

    【大紀元20121207日訊】(大紀元記者陳怡蓮綜合報導)近日,印度前高官發文披露,中共一名統戰官員曾在8月份以民間身份秘密造訪了流亡藏人所在地達蘭薩拉,並與達賴喇嘛及流亡政府噶倫赤巴羅桑森格本人進行了會面。據稱,這名官員還帶去了當時即將接棒中共最高權力的習近平的書信。

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20121020日 全球視野:2012美國大選專題報導- 中央社訪問





YouTube Link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9HPLQAHieI

 

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2012116日中共十八大特別報導:傳習中國- 中央社訪問





 

YouTube Link: http://youtu.be/CyuTtsI1MhE

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20121217 林中斌:絕非世界末日



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On December 1, 2012, I was invited to give a keynote speech at an international conference held in Taipei organized by Business and Professional Women International on a theme of “green economy”. In preparation for my presentation, I updated my previous graphs on frequency trends of earthquakes (source: U.S. Geological Survey), and volcanic eruptions (source: Smithsonian Institute) from my book Global Shift: Exploring Roots of Rising Disasters published in December 2011. I checked the latest data on global average temperature trend, and those on the solar cycles (Cycle 24). I added the April 2012 Japanese astronomer’s observation on weakened solar activities and the prospect of a mini-ice age in addition to the three previous forecasts made by astronomers from Russia, the Netherlands, and the U.S.

My opening remarks will be followed by the power-point presentation without the verbal comments.

                               Chong-Pin Lin    December 3, 2012

2012121日,中斌被國際婦女會議邀請作主題演講。題目是 全球轉變:災變昇起下的希望曙光。內容有些剛更新的資料:地震頻率在2008年達頂峰後持續下降;火山爆發頻率也如此;世界平均溫度在19982010年達高原後,約略下降;20104月日本天文學家也預測小冰河期的來臨,是5年內第4個國家的天文學者發表類似的看法。

以下有一段演講的開場白,隨後附上全演講的圖片簡報。

敬請賜教。

                              林中斌 2012123

 

GLOBAL SHIFT:

RISING DISASTERS AND DAWNING HOPE

By Chong-Pin Lin

KEYNOTE SPEECH

Asia Pacific Conference, Business and Professional Women International

December 1, 2012, Grand Hotel, Taipei

 

 

 

OPENING REMARKS

 

In 20 days, it will be December 21, 2012, the day where the Mayan astronomical calendar mysteriously ends.

Will that be the end of the world?

Will horrendous calamities descend upon us as depicted in the film “2012?

 President Lu, distinguished BPW speakers and leaders, ladies and gentlemen, my answer is :

No and No.

You may say that this is a safe bet. If there was going to be the end of the world, I would not be around to admit my mistake.

In fact, among others reasons, the geomagnetic poles of the earth never flipped like that in a matter of hours or days in its history.

It took hundreds if not thousands of years to complete the process.

Now, you may wonder what qualifications entitle me, known to be a student of strategic studies and international affairs, to addressing issues like this?

(next slide)

My previous incarnation as a geologist decades before I got involved in the government is one.

(next slide)

A second one is the research I conducted for writing my book, which took two years– almost as long as my PhD dissertation. The book was published at the end of December last year. Its title was “Global Shift: Exploring the Roots of the Rising Disasters”.

(next slide)

This picture shows the trip taken by the geomagnetic north pole around 420,000 years ago. Even the geomagnetic pole moved across the Equator and back after hundreds or even thousands of years, it did not flip.

(next slide)

The second question, out of a total of ten, is:

If the world does not end on December 21, 2012, will the world be inundated by water from melting ice in the Arctic by 2100, and will the world become an oven?

………………………


First download Link(more easy):
http://www.2shared.com/document/ltBoR9zA/20121201_Global_Shift_Rising_D.html



Second download Link :

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzNG5oRndvUloxQWM

 

1.點進連結後,點擊左上角的檔案”(File)

2.再下拉選單中,選擇下載”(Download)

3.解壓縮檔案後,打開20121201 Global Shift Rising Disasters & Dawning Hope的檔案夾, 以瀏覽照片的方式觀看投影片即可。

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Chong-Pin Lin,Chinese Military Modernization: Perceptions,

Progress, and Prospects
”1994



Chong-Pin Lin,“Chinese Military Modernization: Perceptions, Progress, and Prospects” Security Studies, summer 1994 p.742.




Chong-Pin Lin,“Chinese Military Modernization: Perceptions, Progress, and Prospects” Security Studies, summer 1994 pp.718-753.


Download Link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzWnU0VkdQLUZTaFE

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Chong-pin Lin:“The Role of the Peoples Liberation Army in the Process of Reunification: Exploring the Possibilities” 1993

 

Chong-pin Lin:“The Role of the People’s Liberation Army in the Process of Reunification: Exploring the Possibilities” China's Military: The PLA in 1992/1993 (Boulder, Colorado:Westview, 1993)  p.170.

 

Chong-pin Lin:“The Role of the People’s Liberation Army in the Process of Reunification: Exploring the Possibilities” China's Military: The PLA in 1992/1993 (Boulder, Colorado:Westview, 1993) pp.161-179.


Download Link:https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzRklRYndrd2x0V1k

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Chong-Pin Lin,Red Fist:Chinas


Army in Transition
” February 1995




Chong-Pin Lin,''Red Fist:China's Army in Transition'' International Defense Review, February 1995 p.34.



 
Chong-Pin Lin,''Red Fist:China's Army in Transition'' International Defense Review, February 1995  pp.30-34.

Download Link:
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzcVo3Z2xCQjBhaVk

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20121115十八大與胡錦濤裸退-公視訪問





 Youtube Link: http://youtu.be/sC07YOlFykw

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