目前日期文章:201508 (17)

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Chong-Pin Lin, “Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Struggle without Breaking”

Asian Survey May/June 2015 pp. 478 -501

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2CA5YyEY_eVZGJERl8zTTdTc0k/view?pli=1

  accessed August 14, 2015

 

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This May/June 2015 Asian Survey article entitled "Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Strugggle without Breaking" is an invited contribution by Asian Survey based on a keynote speech at the September 2012 U.C. Berkeley conference on South China Sea. The article was published on August 8, 2015, about three years after the speech was delivered.

The non-mainstream views presented in 2012 -- such as " struggle without breaking", "toughness abroad draws domestic applause", that a Sino-Japan Diaoyus/Senkakus conflict won’t happen, the two-faced US policy in East Asia, the budding/rising accommodation school in the U.S., the hedging of China's neighbors, the Bo Xilai link to China's post-2009 rising assertiveness -- have remained largely non-mainstream today. However, they have survived the test of three years of time.

The article contains 72 footnotes (usually 40 footnotes as stipulated by Asian Survey), over 10,000 words (usually 8,000/9,000 words for AS).

Chong-Pin Lin August 11, 2015

 

這一篇柏克萊大學出版的Asian Survey 期刊在 20155/6月期登載的拙文 "與中國在東亞上升的海事爭端真相: 鬥而不破" 在今年88日出版。那是根據20129月在加州柏克萊大學的學術會議裡的主題演說,由Asian Survey 邀稿。

文中呈現2012年許多非主流的看法如 -- 鬥而不破、對外強硬對內收割、中日釣島戰不會爆發,美國在東亞的兩面性、美國調適派的萌芽和崛起、中國鄰國的兩面下注、2009年後中國開始的對外強硬和薄熙來的因素-- 如今仍為非主流。但已經過三年時間的考驗。

此文含72腳註(通常Asian Survey 限定40, 而作者初稿原有過百的腳註), 1萬多字(通常限定8/9千字)

敬請賜教。林中斌2015.8.11

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U.S.A, land of limitations?

Nicholas Kristof, The New York Times, August 9, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/opinion/sunday/nicholas-kristof-usa-land-of-limitations.html

 accessed August 14 , 2015

20150810 U.S.A., land of limitations ok  

 

在美國,社會低層20%的小孩一生能爬至上層20%的人只有4%,在英國,有12%可上爬至上層20%,美國這大國的弱點是社會問題。    林中斌 2015.8.10

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習近平破獲第二次政變的內幕

2015/08/07 大紀元 大陸政治 林銳

http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/15/8/6/n4497160.htm

   Accessed August 14, 2015

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這是值的參考的"小道消息"。請注意第一次政變的18人名單。

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Stock Markets Vex China's Leaders

YASHENG HUANG, The New York Times, August 6, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/07/opinion/yasheng-huang-stock-markets-vex-chinas-leaders.html?_r=0

 accessed August 14, 2015

20150807 Stock markets vex China's leaders ok   

 

 

什麼力量使習李2013所提之新常態在股災時被推翻? 黃亞生是MIT的教授及商學院副院長。大陸留美學者。無明確政治立場,此篇分析明晰,但勾出上述的疑問。

This is an in-depth, unbiased analysis of China's stock market disaster. The question I have after reading it is why Xi and Li, already having pronounced a policy of "new normal" (i.e. pursuing qualitative rather than quantitative economic growth) back in 2013, still allowed the government to wrongly encourage the boosting of stock market growth?

Is it because Xi and Li were ignorant economically, ill-advised? Or, is it because some "forces" were at work to sabotage the economic balance?

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Robert Conquest, Historian Who Documented Soviet Horrors, Dies at 98

WILLIAM GRIMES, The New York Times, August 4, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/arts/international/robert-conquest-historian-who-documented-soviet-horrors-dies-at-98.html?_r=0

  accessed August 14, 2015

 

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他出身英國上層社會,詩人、科幻迷,牛津畢業後參加共產黨。二次大戰從軍,負責情報,發現史大林屠殺兩千萬人民。之後成為蘇聯研究權威、歷史大師、極端反共。常常依據和別人一樣的資料做出與人不同的正確判斷。

他認為史大林的殘暴是列寧的延續,只不過變本加厲。也就是說,史大林並非特例或變種。

以上照片攝於2010年,他93歲。

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Robert Conquest, Historian Who Documented Soviet Horrors, Dies at 98
WILLIAM GRIMES, The New York Times, August 4, 2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/arts/international/robert-conquest-historian-who-documented-soviet-horrors-dies-at-98.html?_r=0
  Accessed August 14, 2015

155cd902f8b5c1  

他出身英國上層社會,詩人、科幻迷,牛津畢業後參加共產黨。二次大戰從軍,負責情報,發現史大林屠殺兩千萬人民。之後成為蘇聯研究權威、歷史大師、極端反共。常常依據和別人一樣的資料做出與人不同的正確判斷。
他認為史大林的殘暴是列寧的延續,只不過變本加厲。也就是說,史大林並非特例或變種。
以上照片攝於2010年,他93歲。

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數字台灣:謝金河專訪

2015/07/30 壹電視 林中斌

 謝金河專訪 - 1

謝金河專訪 - 2  

 

財金文化董事長謝金河訪問前國防部副部長林中斌與淡江大學中國大陸研究所所長暨專任副教授張五岳,

 

專訪影片連結:

Youtube  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfDAwEkgf1s

壹電視http://www.nexttv.com.tw/news/realtime/finance/11367381/%E6%95%B8%E5%AD%97%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E3%80%8BPART1

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魔鬼沒了

寬恕融化了業力

True Forgiveness Melts Karma Away

(G.Renard, Love Has Forgotten No One p.168)

林中斌

2015.8.4 光中心新店會館 (中央七街7) 19:00 – 21:20

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這是讀者心得報告,談不上修行。

林中斌 2015.8.4

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New Bishop in China Signals Hope for Relations With Vatican

MICHAEL FORSYTHE, The New York Times, AUGUST 5, 2015

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/06/world/asia/china-ordains-bishop-joseph-zhang-yinlin.html?_r=2&referrer  accessed August 07, 2015

 06China-web-articleLarge  

這是北京與梵蒂岡建交之前兆,由紐約時報報導更值得重視。

林中斌 2015.8.7

This NYT report augurs well for a possible unprecedented break-through for Beijing-Vatican diplomatic relation. We should remember that in May 2013, Xi Jinping received the Russian orthodox bishop which was unprecedented for an atheist Chinese Communist Party.

Chong-Pin Lin  Aug. 7 2015

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Can China stand on its own?

-A History of Competence Sets China Apart

DAVID DOLLAR, The New York Times, JULY 27, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/07/27/can-china-stand-on-its-own/a-history-of-competence-sets-china-apart  accessed August 07, 2015

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世界銀行之前負責中國投資之官員 David Dollar 的看法值得重視。他強調中國有效管理和歷史上經濟之潛力。

林中斌 2015.8.7

This is an unusual view of a former World Bank official who had worked inside China for 20 years.

Chong-Pin Lin  Aug. 7 2015

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中日軍機空域行動規範曝光

2015/07/26 亞洲週刊

accessed August 7, 2015

     

一般被媒體忽視的中日官方/半官方安全對話已在進行。

林中斌 2015.8.7

 

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Confucius says, Xi does

The Economist, JULY 25, 2015

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21659753-communist-party-turns-ancient-philosophy-support-confucius-says-xi-does  accessed August 07, 2015

20150725 Confucius says, Xi does 1  

20150725 Confucius says, Xi does 2  

 

西方媒體終於注意到我在今年春天心靈的文藝復興”PPT演講所提到之習近平已公開三次提倡孔、孟之學。

林中斌 2015.8.7

 Western media has finally taken note of how Xi Jinping had publicly promoted the teachings of Confucius, Mencius, etc.

Chong-Pin Lin  Aug. 7, 2015

 心靈的文藝復興”PPT演講連結:

http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/90114501

 

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Arctic Sea Ice Rebounded—But the Melting Hasn’t Stopped

JUSTIN WORLAND, Times, JULY 21, 2015

http://time.com/3965996/arctic-sea-ice-melting/  accessed August 07, 2015

20150803 Arctic sea ice temporarily rebounds - but the hear is still on 1  

 

北極冰連續兩個夏天2013&2014面積增加,科學家有些困惑。全球溫度不是持續上升嗎?

林中斌 2015.8.7

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香花
Incense Flower
August 3, 2015

 

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201583清晨5:30 – 6:30 August 3, 2015 5:30-6:30am

全心全意感恩祈禱。兩周來帶著身內障礙,完成每日課業。終於過去了。林中斌 2015.8.3

心感動的電磁波是腦活動電磁波的5,000倍,在身旁數英尺的人都感覺的到!今晨應是此現象。

Wholeheartedly praying, and wholeheartedly being grateful. The challenge was finally overtwo weeks of fighting discomfort inside the body while carrying out my daily spiritual exercise. Chong-Pin Lin Aug. 3/1/15

The electro-magnetic force of the heart being moved is 5,000 times that of the brain. The phenomenon this morning could be a manifestation of this force.

在桂林感染厲害的感冒,當時不知道。返台後整夜發燒失眠(兩周前今天),數日毫無胃口,"七竅感染"! 同時趕International Economy 的邀稿,準備天下雜誌開會演講,爆發一生首次的24小時眼痛(原來是 "急性青光眼",自己孤陋寡聞)

I apparently contracted some ferocius flu traveling in Guilin. It triggered the acute glaucoma of which I was ignorant. The virus attacked my inner ear and affected my sense of balance. All the while, trying to meet the deadline of an International Economy article, and preparing my speech at the Commonwelath conference did not help the body to recover.

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香花
Incense Flower
August 3, 2015

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9-2.jpg

9-3.jpg

 

201583清晨5:30 – 6:30 August 3, 2015 5:30-6:30am

全心全意感恩祈禱。兩周來帶著身內障礙,完成每日課業。終於過去了。林中斌 2015.8.3

心感動的電磁波是腦活動電磁波的5,000倍,在身旁數英尺的人都感覺的到!今晨應是此現象。

 

Wholeheartedly praying, and wholeheartedly being grateful. The challenge was finally overtwo weeks of fighting discomfort inside the body while carrying out my daily spiritual exercise. Chong-Pin Lin Aug. 3/1/15

The electro-magnetic force of the heart being moved is 5,000 times that of the brain. The phenomenon this morning could be a manifestation of this force.

 

在桂林感染厲害的感冒,當時不知道。返台後整夜發燒失眠(兩周前今天),數日毫無胃口,"七竅感染"! 同時趕International Economy 的邀稿,準備天下雜誌開會演講,爆發一生首次的24小時眼痛(原來是 "急性青光眼",自己孤陋寡聞)

 

I apparently contracted some ferocius flu traveling in Guilin. It triggered the acute glaucoma of which I was ignorant. The virus attacked my inner ear and affected my sense of balance. All the while, trying to meet the deadline of an International Economy article, and preparing my speech at the Commonwelath conference did not help the body to recover.

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香花
Incense Flower
July 22, 2015

 

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2015年7月22日 July 22, 2015

眼睛痛,衷心懺悔,完成每日課業。

Eye sore, finishing my daily prayer, thinking of my own karma.

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林中斌:中美角力,已出現「黃金交叉」

2015/07/23 天下雜誌 林中斌

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5069480#   accessed Aug 5, 2015

 

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不能說已經"黃金交叉",只能說開始"黃金交叉"。兩個大國國勢的關鍵變化不是隔夜可以完成的。

林中斌 2015.08.07

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