目前日期文章:201602 (27)

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中評深度專訪:林中斌剖析蔡英文兩岸政策

Feb 26, 2016 

http://www.zhgpl.com/doc/1041/3/5/2/104135259.html?coluid=93&kindid=2910&docid=104135259&mdate=0226001712 

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20160122 “Overlapped Ambitions: Exploring Tsai-Xi Cross-strait Rapprochement”

Jan 22, 2016

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i-nwdLrn8I

l  This is the talk delivered at University of Macau, a week after Taiwan’s presidential election. Its basic assumption is that both Xi and Tsai hold unspoken personal ambitions that overlap over the coming cross-strait interactions.

l  這是2016122日在澳門大學的英文演講,敬請賜教。

overlapped ambitions    

 

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20151210 “先強後韌:習近平對外風格下的兩岸前景

Dec 10, 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eMgKlGjIO0

l  This is a keynote delivered at the Far East Groups annual conference for its high-level managers about one month before Taiwan’s presidential election on January 16, 2016.

l  這是遠東集團高階主管年會的主題演說內容。時間在台灣總統大選之前一個月。敬請指正。

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中客自由行 年輕女性最多

2016/02/14 自由時報

http://m.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/957857

  

 

l   這不是聯合或中時或旺報,而是自由時報的報導!“中國自由行旅客...禮貌與文明程度甚至還優於臺灣人..."

馬政府開放中國旅客自由行,根據調查,來台灣自由行的中客以女性居多,偏愛軟性景點,不少人事先還做足功課,深入了解台灣的程度,接觸過的人都印象深刻。

中國從二○一一年六月開放第一批自由行中國旅客來台,根據陸委會統計,目前已達三二六.五萬人次,以廿歲到四十歲的比例最多,呈現逐年增加趨勢。

其中,女性的比例又高於男性,她們對於台灣的軟性景點,包括美食、民宿、具人文特色的景點特別偏好。

一般來說,自由行的中國旅客,喜歡規劃深度旅遊與精緻路線。調查顯示,最愛的地點包括誠品書店、九份山城、平溪天燈、北投溫泉等地;最愛的台灣伴手禮是鳳梨酥、牛軋糖及面膜。

有民宿業者指出,曾接待過來自中國的自由行旅客,幾個女生結伴遊台,令人印象深刻的是,她們對於台灣有相當深入的了解,顯然事先做足功課,例如當地老街的歷史淵源,竟然比當地人還要如數家珍。

業者坦言,中國自由行旅客素質普遍比團客高出許多,禮貌與文明程度甚至還優於台灣人,他們旅遊過程中細細品味台灣的各地點滴,不時仔細詢問當地風土民情,這也讓他們印象深刻。

陸委會方面指出,隨著中國自由行旅客人數逐年增加,安全維護與旅遊品質成為重要課題,已建立緊急事件的政府相關單位橫向聯繫機制;至於少數中客所伴隨而來的治安問題,相關機關已進一步強化安全管理配套機制與措施,並將依實際實施情形,隨時進行檢討。

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“Anchors away”

Economist Feb 20th 2016

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21693269-criticism-government-being-airbrushed-out-news-shows-anchors-away

“As China’s Economic Picture Turns Uglier, Beijing Applies Airbrush”

EDWARD WONG and NEIL GOUGH FEB. 25, 2016

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/business/international/china-data-slowing-economy.html?_r=0

accessed FEB 25, 2016

l  人類進入21世紀壹拾年代。民主的日本和非民主的中國都在縮緊對媒體的管制。怎麼啦?是人類整體退步了嗎?還是媒體在國家人民整體利益下應該管訓?

l  Mankind has entered the second decade of the 21th century. Yet, both the democratic Japan and the undemocratic China are tightening control of the media. What has happened? Is it that mankind has retrogressed? Or, under the total interest of a country and its people, media ought to be controlled?

20160220 Anchors away

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"蔡英文:最紮實的花瓶"

2016/1/28 多維 p.88-90

   accessed Feb 19, 2016

 

  • 這料敵尚且須從實,何況料非敵?
  • 偏藍、偏綠、偏紅皆非大錯。
  • 誤判才是大錯。
  • 讓情慾、偏好、仇恨、厭惡影響判斷,不讓新的事實修正之前的判斷,小則誤己,大則誤國。

林中斌 2016.2.19

 

20160128 蔡英文 最扎實的花瓶 - 1.jpg

20160128 蔡英文 最扎實的花瓶 - 2.jpg

20160128 蔡英文 最扎實的花瓶 - 3.jpg

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南海衝突升溫?

林中斌:中美「鬥而不破」

2016/02/17 蘋果日報 林中斌

http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/international/20160217/797831/%E5%8D%97%E6%B5%B7%E8%A1%9D%E7%AA%81%E5%8D%87%E6%BA%AB%EF%BC%9F%E3%80%80%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E3%80%8C%E9%AC%A5%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E7%A0%B4%E3%80%8D

  accessed Feb 20, 2016

 

  • 林中斌:中美「鬥而不破」

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Beijing’s nonnavy boats in South China Sea stoke concern of U.S. 7th Fleet commander

The Japan Times, Feb 16, 2016

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/02/16/asia-pacific/beijings-non-navy-boats-south-china-sea-stoke-concern-u-s-7th-fleet-commander/#.VsWxA4F-XqD

  accessed Feb 18, 2016

  • China seems to be coordinating fishing boats and coast guard vessels on U.S. warships in the Spratlys which has caused Vice Admiral Joseph Aucoin, US 7th Fleet Deputy Commander, much "angst", not knowing what to do about it. This is what I characterized as "extra-military emphasis" in China's strategic tradition in my PhD dissertation-turned book "China's Nuclear Weapons Strategy" published in 1988 by Lexington Books. Chong-Pin Lin Feb 18, 2016
  • 北京似乎在協調漁船和海巡船來對付在南海巡航的美國軍艦。這困擾了美國的7艦隊副司令,不知如何應付是好。這就是我在博士論文轉成的專書"中共核武戰略"(1987)中所稱中國戰略傳統裡的特點之一"超軍事手段優先"2016218

 

China’s increased reliance on nonnaval ships to assert its claims in the South China Sea is complicating U.S. efforts to avoid a clash in the disputed waters, according to 7th Fleet commander Vice Adm. Joseph Aucoin.

While the U.S. and Chinese navies are working more closely under an agreed code for unplanned encounters at sea, the deployment of coast guard and other nonnaval vessels in the area is “a concern of mine,” Aucoin told reporters Monday in Singapore. He plans to take the USS Blue Ridge, the command ship of the 7th Fleet, to China later in the summer.

We have all types of senior level engagements with the Chinese PLAN, that we meet pretty routinely,” Aucoin said, referring to the People’s Liberation Army Navy. He said he had a “greater fear” about other actors, “whether it’s coast guard or what we refer to as white shipping or cabbage ships, not sure about their professionalism.”

Aucoin’s comments came ahead of a two-day summit in California between President Barack Obama and leaders from Southeast Asian nations, as the U.S. seeks to build a unified approach to China’s growing military clout. Southeast Asian countries generally welcome China’s investment and economic muscle, even as some have expressed concern about its expanding naval reach.

China claims more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, putting it at odds with fellow claimants including Vietnam and the Philippines in a body of water that annually hosts $5 trillion in shipping. In the past two years, China has reclaimed more than 1,200 hectares (3,000 acres) in the sea and is building military facilities there. It has also made greater use of fishing and maritime surveillance boats to warn off other vessels in the area, blurring the lines between its navy and coast guard.

Last month the U.S. sent a warship into waters contested by China, Vietnam and Taiwan to challenge the “excessive” maritime claims of all three. It was the second time in less than six months the U.S. has challenged China with a so-called freedom-of-navigation operation. During the first operation by the USS Lassen, where it passed within 12 nautical miles (22 km) of Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands chain, it was shadowed and warned by Chinese boats — including nonnaval vessels.

During the Lassen one it was apparent that they were being controlled, that they weren’t operating independently, and that is something that is in our calculus now,” Aucoin said of the Chinese boats. “How do we approach that when it is not gray hull versus another gray hull, it’s other types of ships. I think we’ll see more of that in the future.”

Chinese navy commander Adm. Wu Shengli said in January that China had no plans to militarize the South China Sea. Still, the country would “never be defenseless,” Wu said. The degree of defensive facilities depends on how much China is under threat, he said.

The U.S.’s 7th Fleet has patrolled Asia’s waters since World War II. Its coverage area extends from Japan to India.

Aucoin said there were no formal talks to bring coast guards under the code for unplanned encounters at sea. “I know I am asking our coast guard to become more involved, to help us with these types of operations because it’s not simply gray hulls anymore,” he said. “I think having a code of conduct that would cover them would be a good thing.”

China has nearly finished a giant coast guard ship and will probably deploy it armed with machine guns and shells in the South China Sea, the Global Times reported in January, dubbing the vessel “The Beast.” China Coast Guard vessel 3901, with a 12,000-ton displacement, will carry 76 mm rapid fire guns, two auxiliary guns and two anti-aircraft machine guns, the paper reported.

China’s so-called white-hulled fleet previously involved ships armed at most with water canon and sirens. The ship now under construction is larger than some of the U.S. naval vessels that patrol the area.

It will be the second of China’s mega-cutters, which are the largest coast guard vessels in the world, according to the Global Times. A similar boat entered service last year in the East China Sea, where China is separately involved in a territorial dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, which Beijing calls the Diaoyus.

The country also said in January it had successfully completed test flights of civilian aircraft to a new airfield on Fiery Cross Reef, drawing protests from countries including Vietnam. Aucoin said flying fighter aircraft out of the area would have a destabilizing effect and could prompt a U.S. response. (Aucoin misjudged.  It was intended for expanded tourism to deal with U.S. warships.  CPL Feb. 21, 2016)

They do have an operational airfield but I don’t know when they will start flying fighter-type aircraft out of there,” Aucoin said. “We will fly, sail and operate wherever international law permits, and that includes flying over that airspace.”

He called for greater transparency from China on its intentions generally in the South China Sea. “I think that would relieve some of the angst that we are now seeing, that we are unsure where they are taking this,” Aucoin said. “What has made China powerful, great, is being able to operate through these waters. We just want them to respect those rights so that we can all continue to prosper.” (Aucoin unintentionally revealed that he was perplexed.   CPL  Feb 21, 2016)

 

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The Renaissance of Spiritualism

Feb 18, 2016

https://youtu.be/WYB3doeJiFk

  • This is one of the four keynote speeches presented at the “Asia-Pacific Religious Freedom Forum” held 25 sunrise golf & Country Club, Yangmei District, Taoyuan City.
  • 這是亞太宗教自由會議的四個主題演講之一,時間在2016218日,地點:桃園市楊梅區揚昇球場。此國際會議有一百二十人參與。

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心靈的文藝復興 新紀元 新價值

2015/12/13 林中斌

https://youtu.be/ufG2B3GE_DM

  • 這是2015年12月13日在”神奇的腦、心、靈與氣”會議裡的演講。地點在台北市榮民總醫院介壽堂。

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Uruguay’s Quiet Democratic Miracle

UKI GOÑI, The New York Times, Feb 9, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/opinion/uruguays-quiet-democratic-miracle.html?_r=0

  accessed Feb 15, 2016

  • Uruguay with only 3.3 million inhabitant is one of the world’s “full democratic”, ahead even, by one place, of the United State. Uruguay scores perfect 10s on the indexes of civil liberties and electoral process, Uruguay has avoided excessive nationalism to maintain social harmony, Uruguay has avoided religious influence on the society, a feat equaled only by Norway and New Zealand.
  • 烏拉圭人口僅330萬是世界上20個完全民主國家之一,甚至比美國更民主。其人民的自由和選舉過程被評為世界最高分(10)只有挪威和紐西蘭跟它一樣,避免民族主義撕裂社會,避免宗教影響政治。201595%能源都是可以再生的。

 

20160210 A quiet democratic miracle in Uruguay - ok.jpg

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Exploring running injuries

Gretchen Reynolds, International New York Times

accessed Feb 17, 2016

  • 科學加選了249有經驗的女性長跑者,她們跑時都以後跟先著地。觀察她們兩年。很多人認為後跟先著地會引起運動傷害。但是發現兩年下來,100為有需就醫之傷害,40為有輕微傷害,而其它109位沒有傷害。
  • A Study has found that runners who strike the ground with their heel, first get less injuries, contrary to what is commonly believed.

20160217 Exploring running injuries.jpg

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How China Sees Russia:

Beijing and Moscow Are Close, but Not Allies

Fu Ying, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2016

  • 北京前駐英、澳大利亞大使,外交部副部長傅瑩居然在美國頂尖的《外交事務》期刊討論對美國而言是極端敏感的問題。她的論述理性不諱言一般人躲避的議題,但呈現北京國家政策符合其國家利益。文字看來沒有強詞奪理的語氣。值得學習。
  • Fu Ying wrote: ”Beijing and Moscow, sometimes they agree; sometimes they do not. But they are able to acknowledge and manage their disagreement while continuing to expand area of consensus. The Chinese-Russian relationship represent a possible model for other state to follow.”
  • Chong-Pin Lin: Fu Ying implies that the Chinese-Russian relationship is a model for the new major-state relationship(新大國關係的典範)

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2016 Jan Feb How China Sees Russia 96.jpg

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氣候怎麼了

2016/02/15 聯合報 名人堂 林中斌

http://udn.com/news/story/7340/1501734-%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%8F%E6%B0%A3%E5%80%99%E6%80%8E%E9%BA%BC%E4%BA%86%EF%BC%9F

accessed Feb 15, 2016

20160215 氣候怎麼了ok  

 

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Welcome to the Age of the Commando

MATT GALLAGHER, International New York Times, JAN 30, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/opinion/sunday/welcome-to-the-age-of-the-commando.html?_r=0

accessed Feb 1, 2016

l  作者是美國退伍的特戰上尉。他說:「使用特種部隊會保證無止境的衝突和暴力,因為不受人民監督。長遠目標?無。」

l  White House officials have taken to what a report in this newspaper recently called “linguistic contortions” to obscure the forces’ combat roles. As the military as a whole downsizes, Special Ops recruitment continues to rise. There are approximately 70,000 Special Ops personnel today, a number that includes soldiers, civilians, National Guard and Reservists, as well. This number is up from 45,600 in 2001 and 61,400 in 2011.

 

 20160201 The age of the commando ok  

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Social Media: Destroyer or Creator?

Thomas L. Friedman, International New York Times, FEB 3, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/opinion/social-media-destroyer-or-creator.html

accessed Feb 3, 2016

 

l  臉書革命從阿拉伯之春,到佔領華爾街到香港佔中的運動並未建立持久的政治秩序。因為新媒體常於解構而拙於建構,可以廣播聲音而無法凝聚共識。

l  發動2011年埃及革命的年輕人Ghonim最近說:「我以前相信網路可以解放社會,但我錯了。」

 

 20160204 Social media - destroyer or creator  

 

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After The Spring

Jared Malsin/Cairo, Time, FEB 8, 2016 p.32

http://time.com/4198092/after-the-spring/

accessed Feb 8, 2016

 

20160208 Five years after Tahrir Square, the Ehyptian state is arguably more repressive  

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Abe’s “stain”

Economist, SEP 26, 2015 p.28

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21667981-chinas-angry-reaction-japans-new-security-laws-echoed-home-abes-stain

accessed Sep 26, 2015

 

l  中國國防經費自20052015年直線上升,由美金300億至1,400億元。日本同期國防經費變化不大,由450億至420億美元。

 

20150926 Abe

 

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The South China Sea: Making a splash

Economist, JAN 30, 2016

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21689633-taiwans-outgoing-president-further-roils-troubled-waters-making-splash

accessed Jan 30, 2016

 

l  美國智庫CSIS:2030年時,南海將成中國湖,有如加勒比海是美國湖一般。」

l  美國派軍艦穿越南海之訊息不明確。到底是「自由航行」(freedom of navigation)以挑戰中國對島礁的主權呢?還是「無害通過」(innocent passage)間接承認了中國對島礁的主權?

 

 

20160130 Making a splash - 1

20160130 Making a splash - 2  

 

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呂秀蓮談蔡英文兩岸路線

2016/02/14 亞洲週刊

http://www.yzzk.com/cfm/content_archive.cfm?id=1454491247348&docissue=2016-07

  accessed Feb 14, 2016

 

l   呂秀蓮過去經常批評蔡英文,被黨內形容有「呂蔡心結」。

l   呂說蔡:「她絕對不是一個簡單的人物,她可以把民進黨所有的派系制服,現在叫英派,其實派系沒有消除,因為她跳出來,派系通通靠攏。」

l   呂:「我剛好上了一個電視節目,我忽然想到世界名畫『蒙娜麗莎的微笑』,我覺得蔡總統很有政治的蒙娜麗莎的味道。」

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