目前日期文章:201603 (13)

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林中斌:520後,兩岸整體關係並不悲觀

2016/03/04 天下雜誌 林中斌

http://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/70/article/3957#st_refDomain=www.facebook.com&st_refQuery=/  

accessed Mar 05, 2016

我想對習近平主席說:蔡英文不斷提出善意的說法,甚至有人認為她「和對岸溝通、溝通、再溝通」的說詞,是在乞求北京。在這樣的情況下,您若仍然拒她於千里之外,要如何解釋您可以接見並未完全友中的安倍,但不能接受蔡英文這種狀況?何況蔡英文還是您所認為的中國人。

在蔡英文方面,很多民進黨領導人都認為,她不會接受九二共識,因為一旦接受,台灣15%的深綠選票就會離她而去。也許這是事實,但我想請問蔡總統:您所欣賞的德國總理梅克爾剛就任時的理念是聯美反中。但20079月接見達賴喇嘛後,北京斷絕與柏林互動四個月,德國商業利益受損。於是梅克爾開始改善與北京關係。在金融危機時,她甚至與中國一起批評美國不負責任。近年來中德關係穩定,同時梅克爾政治智慧享譽國際。您為何不能為台灣整體實際的利益調整您最早的政治理念?

20160305 林中斌:520後,兩岸整體關係並不悲觀.jpg

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漁船遊艇對軍艦

2016/03/08 聯合報 名人堂 林中斌

http://udn.com/news/story/7340/1548175-%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%8F%E6%BC%81%E8%88%B9%E9%81%8A%E8%89%87%E5%B0%8D%E8%BB%8D%E8%89%A6

超軍事手段優先 (Extra-military Emphasis)

這份2016.3.3日我交給聯合報名人堂的稿件,於2016.3.8日刊出。在這段期間,兩項新聞出現,似乎呼應了拙作所提之研判。感謝提供寶貴資料的同學及提醒這兩項新聞的名暉。

第一份新聞來自2016.3.4 CNN(“U.S. aircraft carrier patrols South China Sea as Beijing keeps watch” http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/politics/aircraft-carrier-patrols-south-china-sea/)

第二份新聞來自2016.3.6央廣網(永興島機場或年內通航 三沙將逐步開放旅遊)

http://war.163.com/16/0306/09/BHFDHQL100014OVF.html

■ “超軍事手段優先這個詞彙來自1988年拙作(Chong-Pin Lin, China’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy, pp.22-25)。其定義是 超越軍事但不排除軍事的手段” (原文是 transcending but not excluding the military)

■ “二元整合” (integrated dualism) 這個詞彙也來自1988年拙作(Chong-Pin Lin, China’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy, pp.25-28)

 

20160308 超軍事手段優先.jpg

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Japan Is a Disturbing Cautionary Tale for America and the World

Rana Foroohar, Time Magazine, MAR 7, 2016

http://time.com/4233654/japan-economy-interest-rates/

 accessed Mar 7, 2016

l   日本負利率並未達到預想之效果。安倍並未改革經濟結構。日本經濟前景不樂觀。

20160307 Japan is a disturbing cautionary tale for America and the rest of the world.jpg

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The Beast Is Us

Timothy Eagan, The New York Times, MAR 4, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/04/opinion/campaign-stops/the-beast-is-us.html?_r=0 

accessed Mar 7, 2016

l  作者認為川普的崛起是美國人民的選擇,這和美國人民的水準有關。

20160307 The beast is us.jpg

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Bracing for a President Trump

Nicholas Kristof, The New York Times, MAR 2, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/opinion/after-super-tuesday-bracing-for-a-president-trump.html

  accessed Mar 4, 2016

l 「作者:你怎麼可以支持一位煽情的政客,他行政經驗比任何一位美國總統都少?

 川普支持者:你們自以為聰明的媒體人,講話這麼看不起人!川普有的是重要的經驗、他會賺很多錢。無論如何,有經驗的政治人物給我們帶來了什麼?一個腐敗而不靈光的制度。讓我們試試另外一條路吧至少川普有話直說。」

l   作者訪問過支持川普的選民。以上是他和川普支持者典型的問答。

  更多的請看全文。

20160304 Bracing for a President Trump.jpg

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Who Is the Biggest Aggressor in the South China Sea?

Greg Austin, The Diplomat, June 18, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/who-is-the-biggest-aggressor-in-the-south-china-sea/

  accessed March 1, 2016

l  2015513日,美國國防部助理部長施大偉對國會作證時說:1996年越南在南海有4個島礁,中國有9個。2015年越南增為48個,而中國減為8個。而最近六年越南增加尤其快速,由30增至48。施大偉也說,作證時,中國尚未造飛機跑道。他說,這個背景讓我們了解,中國軍事領袖為何說他們曾經展現"高度的自我克制"

林中斌摘譯 2016.3.1.

In 1996, Vietnam occupied 24 features in the Spratly Islands (source). At that time, according to the same source, China occupied nine. By 2015, according to the United States government, Vietnam occupied 48 features, and China occupied eight. On May 13, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, David Shear, said this to the Senate Foreign relations Committee: “Vietnam has 48 outposts; the Philippines, 8; China, 8; Malaysia, 5, and Taiwan, 1.”
The Vietnamese occupations appear to have increased from 30 to 48 in the last six years.
Shear also pointed out that as of his speech, China did not have an airfield as other claimants did.
Shear specifically said that between 2009 and 2014, Vietnam had been the most active. This helps us understand what Chinese military leaders mean when they say China has shown “great restraint.”

963

 

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林中斌:雙方只要有善意,「何患無詞」?

http://www.gvm.com.tw/Boardcontent_30187.html

2015/12 遠見雜誌 陳虹瑾

陸提憲法一中 92共識或解套

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160227000863-260301

2016/2/27 旺報

   accessed February 28, 2016

l   Englsih comments follow the Chinese ones.
1.
再一度,習近平對台的突破性作法繞過台辦。由外交部王毅擔綱。(之前有:M503由交通部、柯P兩次新華社等專訪2015.3.30及2015.8.3由中宣部、台胞卡由公安部)
2.之前,台辦官方及大部分對岸涉台學者所堅持的"蔡英文必須承認九二共識,否則......",現在看來並中南海的最高視野。
3. 鄙人2015.12.6 遠見訪問"如果雙方有意願,何患無辭"似乎很幸運沾到2016.2.27的新聞。其實文字的糾葛一向不是癥結所在。雙方領袖不方便公開說的"個人利益/企圖心/使命感"才是。
4.鄙人"蔡習重疊的企圖心"已數次公開場合發表。最近的是2015.12.15 遠東集團演講 "先強後韌",2016.1.22 澳門大學演講"Overlapped Ambitions"。PPT 均已上貼臉書和部落格,敬請賜教。
5.尚無法證明的淺見是:蔡亮麗周到處理柯建明未讓他擔任立法院長而無怨,與2013秋馬處理立法院長王金平的焦頭爛額,成強烈對比。加上蔡"一介文秀女輩書生"在草莽黨內竄起,已鎮住各派。加上明快處理民進黨立委蠢動國父遺像一事。以贏得習近平之尊敬,認為蔡是未來兩岸打交道的對手。這些不無是習近平令王毅華府對九二共識解套的背後因素。
6.蔡習會可能性雖然渺茫但不可排除。
林中斌 2016.2.28

1. Once again, Xi circumvented TAO to launch yet another "breakthrough" on Taiwan. PRC foreign minister Wang Yi at CSIS in DC let go the "92 consensus" insistence hitherto held on tightly by TAO and most PRC scholars on Taiwan affairs. The previous cases include M509 air route/ Commuincation Ministry, two Beijing Xinhua's interview withTaipei Mayor Ke March 30 and August 3, 2015/Party's Propaganda Department, Taiwan compatriot ID card/ Public Security Ministry.
2. The previous insistence on the "92 consensus" by TAO and most PRC scholars on Taiwan affairs apparently amounted to merely tactical maneuvers and could not be equated with the strategic vision of Zhongnanhai.
3. My humble interview with the Taiwan journal "yuanjian" published on Dec. 6, 2015 was entitled "No worry about finding the right term if both sides want a breakthrough" luckily was not far off the front page headline on Feb 27 Want Daily.
4. My view on the "overlapped ambitions" between Tsai and Xi on 2020 had been publicly presented several times before Wang Yi's statement at CSIS. Please check the postings of my December 15, 2015 talk at the Far East Group as well as that of the Jan 22, 2016 talk at the University of Macau.
5. Tsai's skillfull handing of the head of Legislature, her impressive rise in the DPP, and her decisive dismissal of the controversial proposal of Sun Yatsen portrait have probably won sufficient respect from Xi jining who might be thinking that she is the one to deal with on cross-strait future if Xi wanted things done.
6. The prospect of a "Tsai-Xi Meeting", admittedly remote , cannot not be totally ruled out.
Chong-Pin Lin February 28, 2016

 20151200 林中斌:雙方只要有善意,「何患無詞」?

20160227 陸提憲法一中 92共識或解套    

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Experts warn minister not to abuse her power over broadcasting

Shuichi Yutska, The Asahi Shimbun, March 3, 2016

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201603030050

  accessed March 3, 2016

l  日本,亞洲民主的資優生面臨民主的考驗。民選的領袖覺得言論自由礙手礙腳。這是台灣追求民主的遠景嗎?

Experts warn minister not to abuse her power over broadcasting

Law, politics and other experts blasted communications minister Sanae Takaichi over her threat to shut down broadcasters if the government judges them as biased.

Five leaders in their respective fields, including Yoichi Higuchi, professor emeritus of the Constitution at the University of Tokyo, said at a news conference in Tokyo on March 2 that it is unconstitutional to take such a move based on the Broadcast Law’s Article 4 that stipulates political neutrality.

 

1234

 

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A run a day keeps the tumour at bay

The Economist, February 27, 2016

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21693419-active-life-protects-against-cancer-researchers-now-understand-why-run-day

  accessed February 27, 2016

 

l  運動可壓制癌細胞生長

 

20160227 A run a day keeps the tumour at bay

 

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Trump’s Il Duce routine

Roger Cohen , International New York Times, February 29, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/opinion/donald-trumps-il-duce-routine.html?_r=0 

accessed February 29, 2016

l  歐洲各國領袖及媒體對美共和黨總統候選人川普極端排斥。為什麼?因為歐洲經歷多次〝民主自我毀滅〞的慘劇:墨索里尼(別號公爵 Il Duce)、德國希特勒、義大利和南斯拉夫解體後的米洛舍維奇。都是合法民選的領袖後轉為獨裁者,還不提古希臘和羅馬的經驗。

臺灣一心追求民主的未來會是如此嗎?

林中斌 2016.03.06

l  Europe knows that democracies can collapse.

l  after lost wars, in times of fear and anger and economic hardship, when the pouting demagogue appears with his pageantry and promises.

l  Trump has emerged from a political system corrupted by money, locked in an echo chamber of insults

Trump has shown contempt for the press, a taste for violence, a consistent inhumanity, a devouring ego and an above-the-law swagger. As Europe knows, democracies do die. Often, they are the midwives of their own demise. Once lost, the cost of recovery is high.

 

20160301Trump

 

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美國太空總署量子科學家布萊登Gregg Braden博士論證心念的強大力量

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YCUTO2dxuU

  accessed February 26, 2016

Gregg-Braden-Post  

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Harvard Studied People For 75 Years & Found That Happiness Comes From One Thing…

Mindvalley Academy Blog

http://blog.mindvalleyacademy.com/people-skills-and-social-life/harvard-happiness-study?utm_source=cm-blog&utm_medium=facebook-share&utm_campaign=mvablog-share 

accessed February 24, 2016

l  哈佛大學75年持續的研究發現,人生最重要的是

 

擷取

 

 

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《王毅提憲法》林中斌:未來四年 習近平不希望兩岸白紙一張

2016/02/27 自由時報 蘇永耀  

http://m.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/962368

   accessed February 27, 2016

l   自由時報只提我說習近平對2020的企圖心。中評社只提我說蔡英文對2020的企圖心。各取一半。2016.1.22我在澳門大學的英文演講"Overlapped Ambitions"講的就是蔡習對2020的企圖心,都不公開承認,但有重合之處。這才是目前蔡習漸近的幕後動力。
林中斌 2016.2.27

 

 

20160227 未來四年 習近平不希望兩岸白紙一張

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