目前日期文章:201706 (20)

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Trump claims ‘national security victory’ after Supreme Court allows travel ban

June 27, 2017

https://www.ft.com/content/2f518fa2-5a87-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b

accessed June 27, 2017

 

● 美國最高法院居然全數通過支持川普對6個回教國家旅客禁止入境的政策,之前美國地方法院數次推動川普之禁令.

● 此外,6月20日美國眾議院 “特別選舉”(Special House election) 喬治亞州及南卡羅來納州的共和黨候選人 Karen Handel及Ralph Norman都贏得選舉

● 美國經濟復甦仍然在持續,川普當選後大家所憂慮的 “川普震盪”(Trump bump)並未發生

● 川普雖然民調支持度低,但很可能做完四年不被彈劾而下台.

● 如果在2020年,美國經濟過得去,(不見得是很好),川普不無可能連任做8年的總統

 

林中斌 2017.6.27

 


The US Supreme Court handed Donald Trump a partial but significant victory on Monday, allowing his controversial ban on travellers from six Muslim-majority nations to take effect for people who lack a “bona fide relationship” in the US.

In practice, the unanimous decision will allow into the US only individuals with a “close familial relationship” to a US citizen or a formal tie to an American company or organisation, the court said.

The president welcomed the ruling as “a clear victory for our national security”, saying it would allow him to “use an important tool for protecting our nation’s homeland” from threats from “six terror-prone countries”. 

“As president, I cannot allow people into our country who want to do us harm,” Mr Trump said. “I want people who can love the United States and all of its citizens, and who will be hardworking and productive.”

Mr Trump’s attempts to restrict entry into the US, which began just a week after his inauguration, ignited the first big controversy of his presidency. Protests snarled airports and lawsuits quickly erupted in multiple federal courts.

Monday’s ruling represented his first legal win after a series of sharp defeats, but sets up a potential showdown over presidential power. 

“The most significant aspect of this is that it’s unanimous, that all the justices agreed the lower courts made a big mistake,” said Josh Blackman, a professor at the South Texas College of Law. 

The ruling effectively suspended the lower courts’ decisions while the Supreme Court itself can hear arguments on the merits of the case. Acting on the final day of their annual term, the justices will not provide a full hearing in the case until they reconvene in October, leaving much of Mr Trump’s ban in place for at least three months.

Opponents of the ban warned that the ruling could spur a wave of new legal challenges as travellers attempt to prove they should be allowed into the US.

The court’s decision is likely to spawn “chaos at the border and new lawsuits as foreign nationals and refugees argue that they are entitled to enter the United States,” said Stephen Yale-Loehr, a Cornell University Law School professor. 

Two federal appeals courts — in cases involving refugee groups, US citizens with foreign relatives and the state of Hawaii — have blocked the administration’s second attempt at a temporary travel ban since it was issued on March 6.

Judges in both cases cited Mr Trump’s campaign trail calls for a ban on Muslims entering the US as proof that his order was motivated by unconstitutional religious animus rather than national security concerns. 
Mr Trump’s travel order would have halted for 90 days all arrivals from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen to permit a study of foreign governments’ security vetting procedures. The order also would have barred new refugee arrivals for 120 days and capped the annual total of such admissions at 50,000.

Republican Handel Wins Georgia House Election, GOP Keeps Seat

 

By Arit John

2017621 上午10:25 [台北] 2017621 下午6:36 [台北]

  • Former Georgia Secretary of State Handel defeats Ossoff
  • Democrats hoped to capitalize on Trump’s low approval ratings

GOP's Handel Wins Close Race for Georgia House Seat

Sen. Cardin Says Trump Travel Ban Creates Confusion

Trump Scheduled to Meet With Putin During G-20 Summit

GOP's Handel Wins Close Race for Georgia House Seat

Republican Karen Handel defeated a well-funded opponent in a special election for a U.S. House seat in Georgia, a setback for Democrats who hoped President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings would help them win congressional races.

Handel, 55, won in a suburban Atlanta district held by the GOP since 1979 despite raising far less money than Democrat Jon Ossoff, 30, in the most expensive House race in U.S. history. Handel will fill a seat vacated by Tom Price, who was appointed by Trump as Health and Human Services secretary.

Handel won 51.9 percent of votes to Ossoff’s 48.1 percent with all precincts reporting, according to the Associated Press.

Handel thanked the president while addressing supporters Tuesday night, prompting chants of “Trump, Trump, Trump” from the crowd. “Tonight, I stand before you extraordinarily humbled and honored at the tremendous privilege and high responsibility that you and the people across the sixth district have given to me to represent you in the United States House of Representatives,” she said.

Citing the June 14 shooting at a congressional Republican baseball practice that left House Majority Whip Steve Scalise injured, Handel urged a “more civil way to deal with our disagreements.” 

“In these United States of America, no one, no one should ever feel their life threatened over their political beliefs and positions,” she said.

 

Trump Cheers

The result of Tuesday’s election likely will embolden Trump and his legislative push to dismantle Obamacare and overhaul taxes. The president raised money for Handel and repeatedly tweeted in support of her candidacy. 

Democrats also lost a special election Tuesday for a House seat in South Carolina vacated by White House budget director Mick Mulvaney. In that race, Republican Ralph Norman had been heavily favored to defeat the Democrat, former Goldman Sachs tax expert Archie Parnell.

Overall, the special House elections held since Trump’s inauguration have been closer than Republicans would’ve expected in the traditionally right-leaning districts.

“Well, the Special Elections are over and those that want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN are 5 and O!” Trump said in a tweet after the results were announced. “All the Fake News, all the money spent = 0.”

 

Arm’s Length

Handel sought to keep the president at arm’s length, although her platform included priorities similar to Trump’s. Ossoff avoided attacking Trump in an effort to appeal to voters in the Republican district, focusing his campaign on reducing the deficit, cutting government spending and bringing high-tech jobs to the area. Polls in advance of the election had shown the race virtually tied, within the margins of error.

The president’s approval rating was 37 percent in a Gallup poll taken June 17-19 as the Federal Bureau of Investigation and congressional committees investigate possible Trump campaign ties to Russia and whether the president obstructed the FBI’s probe.

Handel, a former Georgia secretary of state, raised $4.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Ossoff, a former congressional staffer, raised $23.6 million.

Despite Ossoff’s fundraising advantage, Handel was boosted by $18.2 million in outside spending, including $6.5 million from the House leadership-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super-PAC and $6.7 million from the National Republican Congressional Committee, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group. 

“Democrats from coast to coast threw everything they had at this race, and Karen would not be defeated,” Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin said in a statement.

Ossoff benefited from just under $8 million in outside spending, including $5 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. 

“This is not the outcome any of us hoped for, but this is the beginning of something much bigger than us,” Ossoff told supporters Tuesday night.

In spite of Ossoff’s loss, Democrats say they have a better chance of winning dozens of Republican-held seats in next year’s midterm election. Democrats are seeking to take control of the House, dominated 238-193 by Republicans before Tuesday’s vote.

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朱成虎答中評:兩岸軍事交流曾被美國叫停

JUNE 26, 2017

http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1047/2/3/3/104723318.html?coluid=1&kindid=0&docid=104723318&mdate=0626093923

accessed June 30, 2017

● 朱不經意反映 -- 蔡有別於獨派。蔡不會宣佈台獨 。甚至影射:蔡受獨夾持。
"朱成虎對兩岸關係總體上表示樂觀,'不是說兩岸關係不會出問題,而是我認為蔡英文不會宣佈台獨,蔡英文不想把兩岸關係搞壞,但是民進黨內有急獨派,蔡英文沒有辦法掌控這部分力量。'”
其實,區別獨與蔡已是對岸台辦以外的官員私下常表達的看法。進一步可稍誇張的說,這種含蓄體諒蔡的看法與台灣藍營對蔡的批判成為有趣的對比。 
今年三月7日兩會期間,旺報報導:有不具名的日本記者對北京官員提到--"習近平批台獨時,並沒有點蔡英文,這跟過去把台獨與陳水扁劃上等號不同。"

● 朱提及動武,但未鼓吹武統,有別於王洪光等武統的主張。

 

林中斌 2017.6.30

 

中評社北京6月26日電(中評社報道組)“

 

   馬英九當了台灣的領導人之後,曾經提出來要派四位軍人來大陸談兩岸的軍事互信問題,我們也準備了四個軍人,準備到台灣去。但是美國就劃了五條紅線,阻止了這次交流,這就使得兩岸關係一直到今天都是半死不活。”中國國防大學的戰略研究教授朱成虎少將昨日在第六屆世界和平論壇上回答中評記者提問時說。 

   朱成虎表示,在台灣問題上美國人早就劃了幾條紅線:第一,兩岸不能建立軍事互信;第二,兩岸在南海問題上不能聯合起來對付其他的聲索國;第三,兩岸在釣魚島問題上不能聯合起來對付日本;第四,兩岸不能就軍事技術進行交流;第五,兩岸退役將領的交流不能機制化。這五條紅線嚴重阻礙了兩岸的交流。 

   朱成虎對中評社表示,在中美關係中,台灣問題永遠是一個問題。美國在兩岸關係上的政策有幾個方面需要注意:第一,美國絕對不會支持中國統一,因為統一之後的中國是一個更加難以對付的對手;第二,美國不願意在兩岸關係中被邊緣化,這一點大陸也非常明確;第三,台灣問題是美國掌握在手中能夠給大陸製造麻煩的一個軟肋。 

 

  “如果中美關係出現問題,台灣問題會更加突出。即使中美關係不出現問題,以中國高速發展的態勢,眼看要取代美國成為世界霸主了,美國也會用台灣問題來制約中國,不會讓中國順順當當發展。”朱成虎說。 

   朱成虎對兩岸關係總體上表示樂觀,“不是說兩岸關係不會出問題,而是我認為蔡英文不會宣佈台獨,蔡英文不想把兩岸關係搞壞,但是民進黨內有急獨派,蔡英文沒有辦法掌控這部分力量。” 

   朱成虎對中評社表示,作為大陸人,要準備以各種方式解決台灣問題,“解決台灣問題就是實現祖國的統一。”朱成虎說,“一個分裂的中國就不能算世界的強國。” 

   朱成虎先後畢業於中國人民解放軍國際關係學院和國防大學。曾作為高級訪問學者在美、英等國客座研究,曾任國防大學戰略研究所副所長,國防大學外訓系主任,台灣問題研究中心領導小組成員,現任國防大學防務學院院長。曾多次主持或參加重大研究課題,著有《中美關係的發展變化及趨勢》、《當代美國軍事》等多部學術專著。

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Plitvicka Jezera, Croatia 16湖國家公園,克羅埃西亞

June 16, 2017

克羅埃西亞的16湖國家公園。像台階般的湖泊,節節下降。從下望上,瀑布水有如來自16層天上。湖水清澈見底。石灰岩硬度3(玻璃硬度7,銅板硬度5),易溶於水,為大自然雕工提供絕佳石材。景色寧靜,很難想像科沃內戰時,公園裡還埋下地雷。和平轉變了一切。德國的遊客說,如今他的鄰居、朋友都來克羅埃西亞遊玩、就業。近5、6年,全世界的遊客都蜂擁而來。韓國人、印度人、澳洲人、美國人、中國人、台灣人.....。

 

林中斌 2017.6.17

http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/5645394

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Trogir and Zadar, Croatia

June 18, 2017

Ancient cities established by the Greek colonists in the 4th and 3rd century B.C. respectively.

 

Chong-Pin Lin

http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/5645367

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Trogir, Croatia

June 19/20, 2017

The charming little island of a fortress city was colonized and ruled consecutively by the Greeks, the Romans, the Dukedom of Venice, Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Yugoslavia Kingdom as well as The Socialist Republic of Yugoslavia. The current city population is slightly more than 10,000. People are nice, cars always stop for the pedestrians, and owner of our apartment would bring cake to us upon arrival, crepes next morning, and a bottle a wine the day of departure.

 

Chong-Pin Lin

http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/5645340

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Mostar and Modugorje, Bosnia Herzegovina

June 21, 2017

Mostar which means "the old bridge" is a historical city identified by UNICEF today. It is currently the most popular tourist attraction of the country, yet was the city of the most intense fighting during the civil war of 1992 - 1996. Bullet holes left on building walls testify that horrible episode.

Not too far from Mostar is the sacred hill where the apparition of Our Lady was witnessed by a few children in 1981, as promised by Our Lady in Fatima in 1914 that She would return.

In Mostar today, Catholics (2/3)and Muslims (1/3) live peacefullly,

 

Chong-Pin Lin June 22, 2017

http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/5645304

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Perast & Kotor, Montenegro

June 22&23, 2017

● “人間天堂”!英國文豪蕭伯納造訪今日黑山共合國的Perast後,不禁如此感歎。藏在安德列海灣中的海灣裡,Perast 像是童話故事裡的仙境。有城堡、清澈見底的湖水、挺拔的山壁。非常值得身歷其境一遊。

林中斌 2017.6.25

"Pearl of the Adriatic", Perast is how Lord Byron referred to it. He also described to be the most beautiful enconter between the mountains and the sea. "Paradise on earth" is George Bernard Shaw's term for Perast. In fact, such stunning scenery can hardly be reduced to mere words. Hidden inside complicated bay within a bay, Perast just like taken from a fairy tale, is easily forgotten by the outside world. Kotor, nearby, used to be a palace constructed in the 10th century by the Venetians with a church perched high up on the mountainn within the fortress wall.

Two small islands off Perast are situated in the center of the waters, one being a monastery and the other a castle. The water is so clean that one can see fish swimming busily as one enjoys breakfast outdoors by the water as the refreshing breeze caressed our face from the lake-like sea. Behind Perast and Kotor is a steep limestone cliff that takes 25 switchbacks to drive up to the top of the mountians at Lovcen where an Alpine landform opens up.

 

Chong-Pin Lin

http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/5645235

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Dubrovnik, Croatia

June 24/25, 2017

● 杜伯尼克2010年後竄起成為世界旅遊的新熱點。曾於1990至1991遭到7個月內戰中圍城敵軍砲火的每日轟擊。之後重建,醜陋的灰色屋瓦換新成亮麗的橘紅。如今笙歌歡樂熱鬧繁榮,不可同日而語。

Dubrovnik has been a hot touristic attraction since about 2010 after surviving a nasty civil war. It rose from the destruction under constant bombardments by the Serbian and Montenegro forces during a seven months siege between the end of 1990 to mid-1991.

● 杜伯尼克是古時航海貿易發達的拉古薩共和國(1358-1808)的首都。拉古薩無強大軍力,卻以高超的外交在周圍強權威脅之下,生存繁榮,保有自由和尊嚴,直至今日仍為歷史學者好奇研究的對象。它當時奉為信念的名言是:"自由無價,無論對方出多少金子,我們都不賣。" (英文Liberty is not sold for all the gold. 拉丁文 Non bene pro toto libertas venditur auro.)
拉古薩的歷史實例有台灣可借鏡之處嗎?

The city was constructed around the 12th century. From 1358 to 1808, it was the capital of the maritime Republic of Ragusa, which achieved a high level of development, particularly during the 15th and 16th centuries, as it became notable for its wealth and skilled diplomacy.

It has impressed and even puzzled historians to this day how a state without military might retained freedom for centuries among the great powers. The Republic of Ragusa was the vassal state of the following different giants in different times:
- Kingdom of Hungary (1358-1458)
-Ottoman Empire (1458-1806)
-Hapsburg Austria (1684-1806)
-French Empire and Kingdom of Italy (1806-1808)

At one time, the Republic of Ragusa was simultaneously submissive to both Ottoman Empire to the east and Hapsburg Austria to the north, serving as a bridge between the muslim Ottoman Empire and the Christian European markets.

Something to learn for the survival and freedom of Taiwan?

● 拉古薩共和國生存之道或許在於:
1. 避免與強權對抗。願意做為強權的屬國,而保留自己的制度。
2. 甚至願意同時作為兩個對抗強權的屬國。遊走敵對兩方,成為雙方的橋梁,和經貿的通道。如鄂圖曼帝國 和 奧地利大公國。

拉古薩共和國在不同時期座椅向強權地屬國:
- 匈牙利王國 (1358-1458)
- 鄂圖曼帝國 (1458-1806)
- 奧地利大公國 (1684-1806)
- 法蘭西帝國(拿破崙)和其下的義大利王國 (1806-1808)

杜伯尼克早在1272年已擁有自己的法典,而與當時其他的法典相近,包括了羅馬的慣律及當地的傳統。那法典也包括了城市規劃及傳染病隔離的準則。與其他鄰近地區比較,杜伯尼克的法制及規劃是相對地先進的,其中以下的例子最為突出:
• - 在1301年引入醫療服務
• - 在1317年已有第一所的藥房,至今仍如常運作
• - 在1347年開設老人收容所
• - 在1377年開設傳染病隔離醫院(拉丁語為Lazarete)
• - 在1418年廢除奴隸貿易
• - 在1432年開設孤兒院
• - 在1436年建設20公里長的供水系統
杜伯尼克是由貴族統治,統治機構為兩市的議會(Vije
ć
e)。

In 1979, it joined the UNESCO list of World Heritage Sites. We were impressed by the abundance of nice swimming sites characterized by clear bluish green water devoid of choppy waves. The civil war brought an opportunity to rebuild the citiy with bright orange roof tiles replacing the ugly and dirty greyish brown one. People are now merrily enjoying their lives with the booming tourism.

Chong-Pin Lin June 29, 2017

林中斌 2017.6.30

http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/5645130

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唵嘛呢叭咪吽的涵義

The Meaning of Om Mani Padme Hum

April 28, 2013

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywwJr8A9IRM

accessed June 4, 2017

● 這是達賴喇嘛用英文對某信徒的回答:
唸咒很好,但光唸咒不夠。要運用我們的智力把我們從痛苦中拔而進入永恆的快樂。
“唵”唸“
A,U,M ”。組成的三個音指"身、口、意"。三者中若有不淨,就是我們痛苦的來源。(不淨應指五毒:貪、嗔、癡、驕慢、嫉妒)
“嘛呢”
(mani)是“利他”或“慈悲”。
“叭咪”(
peme padme)是“智慧”。
“吽”
(haum)是以上兩者之結合而達到淨化。

林中斌 2017.6.4

 

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Why 'Dress for Success' Still Matters (Perhaps More Than Ever)

Ari Zoldan, Inc.com, May 30, 2017

https://www.inc.com/ari-zoldan/why-dress-for-success-still-matters-perhaps-more-than-ever.html

accessed June 6, 2017

● 鬆懈隨便的衣著,如果養成習慣,最後導至鬆懈隨便的言行舉止,鬆懈隨便的道德操守,和鬆懈隨便的生產力。"Continually relaxed dress ultimately leads to relaxed manners, relaxed morals and relaxed productivity."

林中斌 2017.6.6

馬習會外一章:政治衣裝
林中斌
1. 名人堂稿件
20151112文稿 本文字數: 1200 目標字數:1200

習近平的西裝「沉穩大氣,服貼不動」。
馬習會後,長久關注形象穿著的台大外文系教授張小虹在評「馬英九的西裝」文中如此描寫。引發網路上熱烈的討論。可說:無對比,不注意。並肩站,眾評議。
習近平西裝講究在那裡?中共領導人穿著如何演進?為何領導人要重視穿著?穿西裝應注意什麼?理由為何?
 
依拙見,這次會面,與馬對比,習西裝明顯的講究有三:
一、出芽。西裝袖內白襯衫袖口適度外露。二、酒窩。領帶上方近領結處凹下小坑。三、服貼。他舉手時西裝後領未翹離白襯衫後領。
改革開放之初,鄧小平接見外賓的圖象傳為全世界笑柄:除了在茶几前置放令人聯想起東亞病夫的痰盂之外,鄧穿黑皮鞋居然配如中學生般的白線襪(西方外交禮儀要求黑鞋黑襪)
 
進入廿一世紀,中共領袖正式穿著已大有改進。胡錦濤注意到袖口「出芽」。
習近平之前在東南沿海任職時,被國際媒體描寫為「鄉巴佬」
(bumpkin)。曾幾何時,由於習的好學加上夫人彭麗媛的調教,今非昔比。他與英國女王晚宴時,穿著看來單調的深藍中山裝。但中排扣遮邊有同色的渦旋花紋(paisley),左胸配有同色的「袋巾」(pocket square)。莊重而細緻,極有創意。
一位在英國攻讀國際法博士的年輕朋友,最近對我致謝。我曾教他的西裝衣著要點,派上用場了。階級意識深厚的英國教授對他穿著當面讚賞。刮目相待之餘,破格提拔,屢賜良機,如任教、出國開會等。
注意西裝衣著可以為一位留學青年打開機會之門,何況在國際上為國打拼的政治領袖?在外交戰場上,西裝就是盔甲。在心理戰場上,衣著就是軍容。豈能等閒視之?
根據許多隱藏相機的調查,同一個人,衣著隨便或用心,別人的反應可大不同。如果出世修行,另當別論。既然要入世打拼,衣著技巧不得不注意。
這套觀念已經過時了嗎?現在科技新貴的時尚不都是T恤、牛仔褲、跑鞋嗎?誠然,但是一旦他們登上國際舞台,還不都西服革履?臉書的祖克伯、微軟的蓋茲、阿里巴巴的馬雲不都是嗎?何況肩負國家命運的官員?
一九七五年,美國人
John T. Molloy 根據訪談和調查出版暢銷書Dress for Success(成功穿衣術)至今已售一百萬本。兩年後再為女士們出版Women’s Dress for Success Book。兩本書於是塑造了power dressing(強勢衣著)的觀念。基本衣著原則可參閱此二書。
衣著有品味不等於衣服昂貴。有眼光的窮學生,依然可以檢二手貨搭配出體面的衣著。權貴穿了名牌絲質西裝,但袖子有如馬褂般淹過襯衫袖口,領帶長過腰帶。他若銜命進出國際場合,別人無言中已扣他分數。在關鍵時刻,他會得不到對方來自內心尊重的助力。
翻閱民初至遷台間的歷史照片,會發現當年領袖、學者著西裝的講究。國父便是典型。可惜,數十年來,台灣與國際禮儀脫節,影響如今大多數人正式服裝的穿著。
以下為野人獻曝的數點建議,敬請卓參:
▉西裝袖口和領口的出芽。依美學對比原則,令人眼睛一亮,看來有精神。▉領帶的酒窩,有如希臘神殿石柱上的凹槽,打破圓柱的呆版。▉西裝服貼於襯衫上,呈現內外配合的一體感。▉在座談的場合,黑襪長度應上達至脛,以免露出腿肉。▉在演講或晚宴場合,配袋巾以突出形象。

請光臨部落格相簿 查看圖片
http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/1157737

林中斌 2017.6.6

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Princesses of the Blood: Sex, Royalty and War

Economist, June 3, 2017

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21722877-european-history-answer-queens-especially-married-ones-who-gets-more-wars-kings

accessed June 3, 2017

● 歷史學家發現---從1480年到1913年歐洲國家統治者中皇后發動戰爭的次數比國王高27%

林中斌2017.6.3

  WOMEN were less likely than men to support the Vietnam war, the Gulf war, or the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. They commit far fewer murders. They are less likely to favour drone strikes. For scholars such as Steven Pinker, a psychologist, and Francis Fukuyama, a political scientist, these are grounds for thinking that a world run by women would be more peaceful.

  But European history suggests otherwise, according to a working paper by political scientists Oeindrila Dube, of the University of Chicago, and S. P. Harish, of McGill University. They studied how often European rulers went to war between 1480 and 1913. Over 193 reigns, they found that states ruled by queens were 27% more likely to wage war than those ruled by kings.

  This was not all the queens’ fault: men, seeing them as soft targets, tended to attack them. After Mary Tudor became queen of England in 1553, the Protestant reformer John Knox declared “the Monstrous Regiment of Women” unfit to rule: “nature...doth paint them forth to be weak, frail, impatient, feeble, and foolish.” Echoing that sentiment, Frederick the Great of Prussia declared: “No woman should ever be allowed to govern anything.” Within months of reaching the throne in 1740, he fell upon the newly crowned Archduchess of Austria, Maria Theresa, and seized Silesia, her empire’s richest province. Despite years of war, she never recovered it. Indeed, unmarried queens were attacked more often than any other monarchs. Think of Elizabeth I, the historical figure with whom Theresa May most identifies, fending off the Spanish Armada.

  But perceived weakness is not the whole story. Queens, the researchers found, were more likely to gain new territory. After overthrowing her husband, Catherine the Great (pictured) expanded her empire by some 200,000 square miles (518,000 sq km), which is a lot of territory, even for Russia. (She was the first, though not the last, Russian ruler to annex Crimea.) And married queens were more aggressive than single queens or kings, whether single or married.

  The authors suggest several reasons for this. First, married queens may have been able to forge more military alliances, emboldening them to pick fights. While female martial leadership remained taboo, male spouses had often served in the army before they married, and were well placed to cement military ties between their homelands and their wives’ states.

  Second, unlike most kings, queens often gave their spouses a lot of power, sometimes putting them in charge of foreign policy or the economy. Ferdinand II, who ruled Aragon and Castile with Isabella I between 1479 and 1504, led the expulsion of the Moors from Granada. During the 1740s Maria Theresa’s husband, Francis I, overhauled the Austrian economy and raised money for the armed forces while his wife ruled much of central Europe. Prince Albert was Queen Victoria’s most trusted adviser, shaping her foreign policy until his death in 1861. This division of labour, the authors suggest, freed up time for queens to pursue more aggressive policies.

  In the democratic era, too, female leaders have fought their share of wars: think of Indira Gandhi and Pakistan, Golda Meir and the Yom Kippur war, or Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands. The number of countries led by women has more than doubled since 2000, but there is plenty of room for improvement: the current level of 15 represents less than 10% of the total. A world in which more women wielded power might be more egalitarian. Whether it would be more peaceful is a different question.

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What the Russian Revolution Can Teach Us About Trump: a lot more than you think

Ivan Krastev, New York Time, May 31, 2017

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/opinion/russian-revolution-1917-donald-trump.html

accessed June 5, 2017

"The point that Americans risk missing is that the current revolution in Washington cannot be simply explained by Russia's meddling. It was first and foremost homemade." Ivan Krastev, a scholar in Vienna 
● 一位維也那學者說:今日華府的川普革命,不能用俄國介入來解釋。那最主要是美國國內自己製造的。

林中斌 2017.6.5

Our reading diet these days is filled with anniversaries and scandals. This year, bookstores are being invaded by an army of new books related to the centenary of the Russian Revolution. And on the scandal front, not a day seems to pass without a new disturbing, inflammatory indignity besmirching the Trump administration.

Could the newly published books on the Bolshevik Revolution help us make sense of President Trump’s Russia-centered scandals? You might be surprised.

Many contemporary writings see the 1917 revolution as little more than a German plot. This view is particularly popular now in Russia itself, where “revolution” is considered a dirty word. People are rarely content to explain revolutions by using commonplace political logic. History’s changing events are interpreted as either something inevitable like the work of God or the intervention of a foreign power. And with Communism kaput, many of the popular histories of the Russian Revolution have now focused their attention from the rise of the masses toward espionage narratives that show how the Germans, as Winston Churchill put it, “transported Lenin in a sealed truck like a plague bacillus from Switzerland to Russia.”

Now, as many people see Mr. Trump’s election victory as little more than the effect of a Russian plot, if we understand why the Germans helped the Bolsheviks in 1917 and what happened after, we could get a better grasp on why Moscow might have been tempted to help the Trump campaign in 2016 and what we can expect next.

The 1917 analogy suggests that Russia intervened in American politics because of a Hillary Clinton they loathed rather than a Donald Trump they liked. For sure, the kaiser’s Germany had no sympathy for Vladimir Lenin’s revolutionary dreams. If the maverick Bolshevik had been German, the authorities would have tossed him in jail. But Lenin was Russian, and the German high command saw Russia’s revolution as helpful to Germany in the war. Likewise, it seems that Moscow’s main goal in 2016 was major disruption over all else. To unduly stress ideological or other links between the Kremlin and the American president would be misleading.

Russia’s history also teaches us that for a revolution-minded politician like Lenin, the real enemy is internal. In the way Germany saw the Bolsheviks as instruments for achieving German war aims, Lenin saw Germany as an instrument for achieving his revolution. Something similar is probably true for Mr. Trump. And although it’s unlikely that the president personally conspired with the Russians, he would probably not have objected to others exploiting Russia’s support to win. Mr. Trump’s only other priority aside from “America first” is “electoral victory first.”

This makes me believe that contrary to the fears of many of Mr. Trump’s critics, even if the president and his campaign knowingly or unwittingly collaborated with Moscow during the election, this in no way means the new administration will be friendly to Russia or controlled by it. Among other things, for the Russians to control Mr. Trump, the president would have to have his own degree of self-control — which he doesn’t. Paradoxically, Russia’s alleged interference in the American election in favor of Mr. Trump makes United States-Russia cooperation less likely. The White House’s fear of being perceived as soft on Moscow trumps its willingness to work with Russia. This may indeed become the hallmark of the administration’s foreign policy.

Democrats should especially learn another lesson from 1917 and give up on their impeachment dreams: Exposing Mr. Trump’s alleged Russian connection will not automatically delegitimize the president. The story of Lenin’s path to power via a sealed boxcar was well known to the Russian public — the provisional government even issued an arrest warrant for the leader of the Bolsheviks — but it was not enough to diminish him or the revolution in the eyes of his supporters. In an atmosphere of radical political polarization, leaders are trusted not for who they are but for who their enemies are. And in the eyes of many Republicans, President Trump may have the wrong character but he has the right enemies.

The story of 1917 may be instructive for President Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin as well. Germany’s strategy of helping the revolutionary forces in Russia to achieve German geopolitical goals happened to have an unhappy ending: Revolution in Russia removed the country from World War I, but it spread revolutionary fever all over Europe — and even brought civil war to Germany. Mr. Putin’s Russia faces a similar risk. A recent report by a Kremlin-friendly think tank devoted to the rise of technological populism suggests that the populist wave in vogue throughout Western democracies could soon reach Russia — and become a serious threat to the country’s political order during the next electoral cycle.

The irony of the current situation is that a century after the Bolshevik Revolution, Moscow risks repeating the same mistake Germany made in 1917: believing that revolutions can be a reliable ally in achieving geopolitical results. The point that Americans risk missing is that the current revolution in Washington cannot be simply explained by Russia’s meddling. It was first and foremost homemade.

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Fighting Words

TIME, June 12, 2017

● 請看民主模範美國標榜的言論自由在美國頂尖學府柏克來大學如何展示給世人:反川普與挺川普惡鬥。混亂,煙霧,仇恨,暴力。

林中斌 2017.6.7

 "A battle in Berkeley over free speech shows how frenzied politics has become."
 "There is a huge faction of the right that is just like the left. They deal in absolutes."(Rich Black, libertarian organizer".
  "At rallies this spring, some protesters have come to Berkeley as if spoiling for a fight."

Time June 12, 2017 pp.32-36

● 以下是尚瑞君(1996-98在中山大學政研所認識的年輕朋友)關於在下所貼美國柏克萊大學學生以言論自由之命暴力對抗事件之感言。敬請卓參。

林中斌 2017.6.9

天使與惡魔
我不知道天使現在在哪裡﹖

但我看到惡魔在滿街亂跑。
你是天使﹖
還是惡魔﹖
他是天使﹖
還是惡魔﹖
我是天使﹖
還是惡魔﹖

很多人在到處喧囂,
更多的人選擇沉默。

福爾摩沙美麗之島,
為什麼陽光顯得如此憂傷﹖
為什麼藍天與綠地,
都變成了爭執的濫觴﹖

為什麼清風不再歡唱﹖﹖
為什麼﹖
鳥不再語!
花不再香!
仇恨、對立、瘋狂與咆哮,
漸漸的掩沒了,
曾經最美麗的風景,
曾經最美麗的人心。

天使們,
請不要再沉默,
天使們,
請出來微微笑,
天使們,
只要你肯變成天使,
惡魔也會,
慢慢消逝。

我們都要,
做別人的天使。

2017.6.7.

 

 

 

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鄭文燦:和中才能保台挺台

甘嘉雯、陳世宗、崔慈悌, 中國時報, June 8, 2017

● 賴清德:親中。林佳龍:知中。鄭文燦:和中。柯文哲:友中。賴與鄭為新潮流。林為正國會。柯非黨員。
Are we going through a "learning curve(學習曲線)?"

Chong-Pin Lin June 8, 2017

● 以下是1996-98在中山大學政研所認識的年輕朋友尚瑞君所寫的感言。敬請卓參。

林中斌 2017.6.9

林老師您好:看您分析直轄市長和中國心的關係,
讓我想起自己幾日前的貼文,跟老師分享。

忽近忽遠的大中華
本初的一顆心,
習慣被動著矛盾的拉扯,
我愛祂卻又怕著祂,
我怕祂卻還是愛著祂。

近鄉情怯;
近情心怯。
欲迎還拒;
欲拒還迎。

身體上奔騰著一脈的血流,
思想上牽扯著文化的臍帶。
看著我們好像一樣,
想著卻真的是不一樣!

我想聽聽,
黃河長江的濤聲,
如何奔放著詩詞歌賦的緣起,
我想看看,
蘇軾周瑜的赤壁,
如何演繹著愛恨情仇的發跡。

情感上的中華明明很近,
形體上的中華確實離得很遠
忽近忽遠的大中華,
讓飄忽不定的靈魂,
幽幽地不知該如何歸依!

 2017.6.5.FB

  台南市長賴清德日前回答質詢說他「親中愛台」,引發爭議,並在政壇發酵。桃園市長鄭文燦昨面對國民黨市議員林政賢質詢說,「愛台及親中我不反對,要兩邊都好」,用「和中愛台」表達立場;他為賴清德緩頰,認為愛台和親中本不衝突;台中市長林佳龍則說,各種「口號」都不能表達完整的兩岸關係,必須「少說多做」,建立彼此信任感,且不管立場都必須「知中」,了解對岸發展。

   綠骨轉性親中 盼堅持下去

 賴神親中 柯P友中

  繼賴清德說「親中」後,台北市長柯文哲回應他是「友中」,昨桃園市長鄭文燦則強調「和中」立場,林佳龍則表明須「知中」,一時間民進黨突然比國民黨變得更傾中。

  鄭文燦表示,以現況說,「和中」才能保台、挺台,如果把和平當成最高價值,「和中愛台」是好方向。

  鄭文燦進一步說,台灣、大陸仍須善意互動,希望推動「兩岸共好」,而所謂「和中愛台」,對台灣發展很重要,其內涵是不媚中、不抗中,這也是較務實的選項,但不能放棄民主底線,仍要堅持彼此尊重前提,追求和平現狀。

  當鄭文燦得知賴清德用「親中」字眼,略顯訝異,但他緩頰說,「賴應只是想表達對大陸沒敵意,我對此不做任何政治解讀。」

林:知中 尊重與互惠

  此外,林佳龍表示,不管立場親中、和中、反中,首先都須「知中」,了解對岸發展,以同理心透過相互尊重、互惠交流,以「不卑不亢」態度,才能建立長久的兩岸關係;若要透過口號或政治領袖搭建關係,兩岸關係就會走不出迷宮,也無法長久。

  林佳龍強調,兩岸交流須多點同理心,避免言語刺激,透過實際交流累積信任,存異求同,極大化交流範圍;透過城市交流,也可搭建由下而上的兩岸關係。

  面對兩岸立場,高雄市長陳菊也說,兩岸間要和平交流,促進彼此理解與尊重。陳菊算是民進黨縣市首長與陸較和善一位,曾親自登陸行銷高雄世運、亞太城市高峰會。

府:依民意 致力和平

  面對賴清德「親中」被藍營視為「最狂髮夾彎」,總統府發言人林鶴明昨重申,賴所言與政府立場及社會的共同態度「並沒太大差別」,政府一直都是根據普遍民意及國內共識,致力兩岸關係的和平穩定發展。他說,「你們如果去了解賴清德的完整說法,事實上和我們一直以來的說法是一樣的」。

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川普:雖陷危機 或免彈劾

2017/06/02 聯合報 名人堂 林中斌

https://udn.com/news/story/7340/2498436

 

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China and India Make Big Strides on Climate Change

The Editorial Board, The New York Times, MAY 22, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/opinion/paris-agreement-climate-china-india.html?_r=0

accessed May 23, 2017

● 中國與印度在環保上突飛猛進。而美國從氣候巴黎協定退出。

● 中國 CO2 排放量比預計早 10 年開始下降。

● 印度將於 2020 年從非化石來源(非石油或媒)獲得 40% 之電力。

 2016 年中國充電汽車販賣量上升 70%。

林中斌 2017.6.2

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CNN Fires Kathy Griffin For Her 'Decapitated Trump' Photo

Papri Das, The Quint, MAY 31, 2017 

https://www.thequint.com/social-buzz/2017/05/31/kathy-griffin-angers-social-media-over-joke-on-decapitated-trump

● 原來事事反川普的CNN居然把汙辱川普的主持人革職了!

● 幕後的原因可能是正統猶太人的川普女婿庫什那通過猶太勢力的管道施展影響力。

林中斌 2017.6.2

●  Jared Kushner after being elevated to Trump's most trusted advisor can now tap into the invisible, discreet and powerful Jewish connections behind him to tame the once hostile media toward Trump.

Chong-Pin Lin June 1, 2017

   

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Review: ‘Frantz,’ a Mysterious Frenchman and the Wounds of War

STEPHEN HOLDEN, The New York Times, March 14, 2017

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/movies/frantz-review.html?referer=http%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2F

accessed May 28, 2017

許久未看過如此情節引人如勝又細膩感人的佳片。故事發展至少轉彎七次。背景是一次大戰後的德國法國。劇本根據1932的老電影。我們仍可感受到19世紀20世紀初期那"美好時代"(la belle epoch)歐洲社會的教養,人際互動的內斂。

非常推薦這部難得的佳片。

林中斌 2017.5.29

It is gently and sensitively made. It moved me many times during the course of the showing. What makes it stand out from the similar movies is its intriguing development with at least seven turns of the story. Surprise after surprise and more to come. It is a film that touches my soul in way that has not occurred for a long time.

Chong-Pin Lin May 29, 2017

 

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Macron Erupts On World Stage With Trump Snub and a Bromance (1)

Helene Fouquet, Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg, MAY 27, 2017

http://newscdn.newsrep.net/h5/nrshare.html?r=3&lan=en_WD&pid=14&id=dtd55ad71BI_wd&app_lan&mcc=466&declared_lan=en_WD&pubaccount=ocms_0&referrer=200620&showall=1

  accessed May 28, 2017

Bravo, Manual Macron for standing up to Trump and showing friendship and respect to other leaders.

Chong-Pin Lin May 28, 2017

法國總統馬可宏是唯一敢挑戰川普的國家領袖。但他很技巧。用力捏川普手至讓它發白,跟川普講法文不用英文翻譯,而跟英國首相講英文。突顯川普沒文化。這一且讓川普有苦難言。哈!大快世界人心。

他居然在握手時瞪安倍,兩人互瞪比賽。是因為安倍急切交好川普嗎?

林中斌 2017.5.28

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Analysis: Macron proves why the Trump handshake matters so much

Chris Cillizza, CNN International, MAY 29, 2017

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/29/politics/macron-trump-handshake/index.html?eref=mobiles_republic

accessed May 30, 2017

法國總統馬克宏說:

我跟他(川普)的握手並非無意(純潔)的。這不是政治的花樣,而是表露赤裸事實的一刻。我們必需表示絕不絲毫讓步,甚至象徵性的讓步也不。

林中斌 試譯 2017.5.30

"My handshake with him, it's not innocent," Macron said. "It's not the alpha and the omega of politics, but a moment of truth."

He added: "One must show that we won't make little concessions, even symbolic ones."

馬克宏除了知曉哲學之外,拉小提琴(音樂),寫詩(文學),編演舞台劇(與老師接近蹦出愛情)。當然還有會賺大錢(Goldman Sachs)。

到現在為止,馬克宏尚只是個空頭總統。國會裡連一席都沒有!!他成立的嶄新的黨還沒有參選進國會呢!!! 然而他已在國際舞台上展露他的信念、軟硬皆具的外交手腕。

林中斌 2017.5.31

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