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喬治梅森大學訪賓

2018118

George Mason University Visitors

January 18, 2018

兩周前我被告知:
I was advised two weeks ago

美國「喬治梅森大學」(George Mason University)安全政策研究中心副主任葉麥克(Michael Hunzeker)率團乙行7人來台訪問。H主任曾於美國防部馬提斯(James Mattis)及國安顧問H.R. McMaster麾下服役。
"訪團此行來臺特別希望可以拜會您,盼與您就我國防安全議題交換意見。"

Professor Michael Hunzeker at George Mason University who will arrive in Taiwan with a team of experts on security issues "wishes to visit you and exchange views on related issues."

他們說今天來此是這幾天來訪問第一次不在台北市區。(我猜:意味第一次到無辦公室的私人家中)

Today they arrived at our residence saying that this was the first time they went out of Metropolitan Taipei on this trip for meeting, which I thought to mean first time in a private home of someone who does not have an office.

今天下午很愉快的交換意見。

We did have a productive and pleasant session.

林中斌 2018.1.18
Chong-Pin Lin January 18, 2018

 

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U.S. No Longer a Global Force for Good

Susan Rice New York Times, December 20, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/20/opinion/susan-rice-america-global-strategy.html

accessed December 21, 2017

 

美國前國家安全顧問(相當於台灣國家安全會秘書長)Susan Rice在紐約時報投書寫道:

●中國沒有非法佔領它的鄰居。它是美國的競爭者(Competitor),不是美國的對手(Opponent)。

●俄羅斯是美國的對手。它佔領過喬治亞和烏克蘭。

  President Trump’s National Security Strategy marks a dramatic departure from the plans of his Republican and Democratic predecessors, painting a dark, almost dystopian portrait of an “extraordinarily dangerous” world characterized by hostile states and lurking threats. There is scant mention of America’s unrivaled political, military, technological and economic strength, or the opportunities to expand prosperity, freedom and security through principled leadership — the foundation of American foreign policy since World War II.

  In Mr. Trump’s estimation, we live in a world where America wins only at others’ expense. There is no common good, no international community, no universal values, only American values. America is no longer “a global force for good,” as in President Obama’s last strategy, or a “shining city on a hill,” as in President Reagan’s vision. The new strategy enshrines a zero-sum mentality: “Protecting American interests requires that we compete continuously within and across these contests, which are being played out in regions around the world.” This is the hallmark of Mr. Trump’s nationalistic, black-and-white “America First” strategy.

  But the world is actually gray, and Mr. Trump’s strategy struggles to draw nuanced distinctions. Throughout, China and Russia are conflated and equated as parallel adversaries. In fact, China is a competitor, not an avowed opponent, and has not illegally occupied its neighbors. Russia, as the strategy allows, aggressively opposes NATO, the European Union, Western values and American global leadership. It brazenly seized Georgian and Ukrainian territory and killed thousands of innocents to save a dictator in Syria. Russia is our adversary, yet Mr. Trump’s strategy stubbornly refuses to acknowledge its most hostile act: directly interfering in the 2016 presidential election to advantage Mr. Trump himself.

  On China and Russia, I suspect the White House realists, to escape the embarrassment of a strategy that ignored Russia’s hostile behavior, agreed to lump China with Russia and almost always mention China first, to placate their nationalist colleagues who hate China but admire Russia. The result is a flawed analysis that may actually drive Russia and China closer together.

  In several respects, including nuclear weapons and arms control, weapons of mass destruction, counterterrorism, intelligence, cyberthreats, space policy, unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual property, the strategy falls within the bipartisan mainstream of United States national security policy, differing little from that of a more traditional Republican president. In other areas, it helpfully corrects this administration’s wavering course, as in its unequivocal embrace of United States allies and partners and reaffirmation of our Article V commitment to defend NATO. The strategy recognizes the threat from pandemics and biohazards and the importance of strengthening global health security. And it maintains at least a nominal commitment to women’s empowerment and providing generous humanitarian assistance.

  But the nationalists around him succeeded in enshrining Mr. Trump’s harsh anti-immigration policies, from the border wall to ending family preferences and limiting refugee admissions. They reprised their paean to bilateral over multi-nation trade agreements and trumpeted the abrogation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would help check China’s economic and strategic expansionism in Asia. The result is an insular, ideological treatment of our complex world, substantially unimpaired by facts and dismissive of United States interests.

  The plan also glaringly omits many traditional American priorities. It fails to mention the words “human rights” or “extreme poverty”; there is no talk of higher education, combating H.I.V.-AIDS or seeking a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Absent, too, is any discussion of people under 30 (who make up over 50 percent of the world’s population), of civil society or of the value of promoting democracy and universal rights. Gone is “climate change” and its threat to American national security. Neither is there any expression of concern for the rights of the oppressed, especially L.G.B.T. people. These omissions undercut global perceptions of American leadership; worse, they hinder our ability to rally the world to our cause when we blithely dismiss the aspirations of others.

  The plan also contains some true howlers. It heralds diplomacy, yet Mr. Trump and his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, have starved the State Department of resources, talent and relevance. The strategy lauds the “free press,” yet Mr. Trump routinely trashes our most respected news outlets as “fake news,” threatening their personnel and operations. And it claims the United States “rejects bigotry and oppression and seeks a future built on our values as one American people”; yet the president has denigrated women, used race-baiting language and been hesitant to criticize anti-Semitic, neo-Nazi extremists. One wonders how seriously to take a document that so starkly diverges from the president’s own words and deeds.

  These contradictions matter, as does the administration’s enthusiastic embrace of a self-serving, confrontational vision of the world. National security strategies do not always leave an enduring legacy, but they are important articulations of an administration’s priorities — signposts to a world that cares deeply about America’s ambitions and interests.

  The United States’s strength has long rested not only on our unmatched military and economy, but also on the power of our ideals. Relinquishing the nation’s moral authority in these difficult times will only embolden rivals and weaken ourselves. It will make a mockery of the very idea of America first.

 

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Some People Want Nothing to Do with Retirement

Claudia Dreifus New York Times, December 16, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/business/asked-about-retiring-they-have-a-simple-answer-why.html

accessed December 21, 2017

Jack Weinstein 5:30起床運動。

●7點,汽車接他去紐約市布魯克林Cadman Plaza。他和同僚喝咖非閒話生活。

●9點,他審理案件,判決被告。

●下午,他審判案件。

●他這一切無什特別。只是,他今年96歲。

林中斌摘譯 2017.12.29

  On most mornings, Jack B. Weinstein rises at 5:30 to exercise.

  At 7, a car takes him from his home in Great Neck to Cadman Plaza in Brooklyn, where he is a senior Federal District Court judge for the Eastern District of New York.

  Once at the courthouse, Judge Weinstein has coffee and gossips with colleagues. By 9, he’s at work hearing motions, reviewing filings, sentencing defendants. In the afternoon, he tries cases.

  None of that is so unusual. But Judge Weinstein is 96 — decades past the age when most Americans choose to stop working.

  “Retire? I’ve never thought of retiring,” he declares. Judge Weinstein was first appointed to the bench more than 50 years ago and is still in the thick of hot-button issues in the courts. “I’m a better judge, in some respects, than when I was younger. I don’t remember names. But I listen more. And I’m more compassionate. I see things from more angles. If you are doing interesting work, you want to continue.”

  Judge Weinstein is one of the more than 1.5 million Americans over the age of 75, who are still in the paid work force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  While the study does not list their specific jobs, many work at occupations in which skill and brainpower count more than brawn and endurance. Some are self-employed and aren’t subject to mandatory retirement rules. Others are stars in their fields — no one has ever suggested that Warren Buffett, 87, quit investing. And there are others, a growing cohort, who remain at their posts because of financial necessity.

  “The crash of 2008, debt burdens, decreasing income replacement rates and the demise of employer pensions are a few of the trends” that have pushed the number of non-retirees to record levels, said Susan K. Weinstock, vice president for financial resilience at AARP.

  Ms. Weinstock said she expected that this trend would continue into the next decade. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says the labor force participation rate for those 75 and older rose from 6.4 percent in 2006 to 8.4 percent in 2016 and is likely to reach 10.8 percent by 2026.

  For Adolfo Calovini, 82, a New York City high school teacher, the need to earn income is part of his motivation.

  Mr. Calovini married late in life and has a son, 14, and a daughter, 20. The approximately $110,000 annual salary he earns as an English as a Second Language instructor at Park West High School in Manhattan is a necessity. For additional income, he teaches in the summer.

  His job isn’t easy — nor is his daily commute from New Hyde Park on Long Island. At school, his assignment is to instruct teenagers from countries including Haiti and Mexico in English literature and composition and prepare them for college. Each day, he teaches four classes — and then spends two hours on individual coaching.

  As a self-taught linguist who can converse in six languages, Mr. Calovini has skills that make him an asset to his school. When an immigrant teen registers at Park West, Mr. Calovini is usually able to connect with the student in his or her native tongue.

  “I’m an immigrant myself,” the Italian-born teacher said. “In class, I try to make them understand that they are as good as anyone else and have a good life if they’ll improve their English. I say, ‘If I can teach myself all these languages, you can learn English and get into college!’”

 

  Occasionally, one of Mr. Calovini’s younger colleagues will ask if he’s ready to retire.

  He shakes his head. “To me, teaching is about life. This is what I do. I can’t see a time when I wouldn’t.”

  The Nobel Prize-winning neuroscientist Eric R. Kandel agrees — he works for the sheer joy of it.

  At 88, Dr. Kandel heads his own research laboratory at Columbia University. “I like what I do,” he said. “Keeping engaged keeps you intellectually alive. I wouldn’t be surprised if it enhanced longevity.”

  Every day, Dr. Kandel interacts with much younger scientists, supervising their investigations, teaching and mentoring them. At the laboratory, he says, “people don’t ever speak to me about my age. I think they are surprised that I am 88.”

  As Dr. Kandel has grown older, his research has focused on the neuroscience of aging.

  In one project, he’s been trying to determine if aged-related memory loss might be an early sign of Alzheimer’s disease. “We have very compelling evidence that it is an independent entity,” he said.

  Dr. Kandel, a trained psychiatrist, offers this advice to other non-retirees: “If you are healthy and enjoy your work, continue. At the very least, it gives you additional income. Even if you don’t need it, the money can be for your kids and grandchildren.”

  Dr. Laura Popper, 71, a Manhattan pediatrician, works because her profession is central to her identity.

  “I wanted to be a doctor since I was 4 — why would I give that up?” she said. “If you’re a surgeon and you reach a certain age, you have to stop. With pediatricians, as long as you have your marbles, there’s no reason to.”

  In fact, there’s something about Dr. Popper’s specialization — tending to the health of children — that invigorates her.

  “The wonderful thing about pediatrics,” she said, “is that it’s always about renewal and the future. I hang out with babies, toddlers, young parents and they are always looking forward. Getting old is about a shrinking future, but I don’t spend my days thinking about that because I’m in a different place.”

  Dr. Popper has been able to continue well beyond the age when most of her peers have retired, partly because she’s self-employed. Dr. Popper is the co-owner of her medical practice, and owns her office space. That autonomy gives her the freedom to adjust her working conditions when necessary.

  Over time she’s allowed her patient load to contract. Instead of examining 35 patients in a day, she now sees somewhere between 10 and 20. Her practice partner, who is 25 years younger, has taken up the slack.

  Still, even with the lighter load, Popper puts in a full week, phoning patients in the evenings and being on call for emergencies one weekend a month.

  All of that earns her about $200,000 a year, which, she said, was “less than what it used to be. But my kids are grown. I don’t need as much.”

  Dr. Popper’s husband of 46 years, Edward Shain, 73, retired from his sales and marketing consultancy three years ago. He spends joyful hours exercising their Doberman pinscher, Elizabeth Bennett, in Central Park and blogging. She claims he’d like her to join him.

  However, whenever he raises the subject, “I tell him, ‘You’d have to take me to a psychiatric hospital the next day.’ There’s no part of me that wants to retire. If you have something you love, there’s nothing else.”

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Dalai Lama: Our Future Is Very Much in Our Hands

When we’re angry, our judgment is one-sided, as we aren’t able to take all aspects of the situation into account. With a calm mind, we can reach a fuller view of whatever circumstances we face.

憤怒讓我們誤判。因為憤怒下 ,我們看不到所有相關方面。

Compassion enhances our calm and self-confidence, allowing our marvelous human intelligence to function unhindered. Empathy is hard-wired in our genes — studies have shown that babies as young as 4 months experience it.

不關心別人,我們不會快樂。因為我們基因裡已有關心他人的遺傳。科學家證明4個月的嬰兒已經呈現如此特質。

林中斌試簡譯文句 2017.12.13

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/opinion/dalai-lama-despair-future.html?referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com.tw%2F

 

  This is an article from Turning Points, a magazine that explores what critical moments from this year might mean for the year ahead.

 

  A crack in a floating ice shelf in Antarctica reached its breaking point and calved a huge iceberg, setting it afloat in the seas. It’s a fitting image for a world that feels under pressure and on the verge of, well, everything — ready to break off and set itself free. The global political temperature is on the rise, the future of truth is under debate and the specter of nuclear conflict hovers. We asked His Holiness the Dalai Lama for his thoughts on how to cope.

 

  We are facing a time of great uncertainty and upheaval in many corners of our planet. When it comes to making the world a better place, concern for others is tantamount.

 

  Our future is very much in our hands. Within each of us exists the potential to contribute positively to society. Although one individual among so many on this planet may seem too insignificant to have much of an effect on the course of humanity, it is our personal efforts that will determine the direction our society is heading.

 

  Wherever I go, I consider myself just one of 7 billion human beings alive today. We share a fundamental wish: We all want to live a happy life, and that is our birthright. There is no formality when we’re born, and none when we die. In between, we should treat each other as brother and sister because we share this commonality — a desire for peace and contentment.

 

 

  TENZIN CHOEJOR / OFFICE OF HIS HOLINESS THE DALAI LAMA

  Sadly, we face all sorts of problems, many of them of our own making. Why? Because we are swayed by emotions like selfishness, anger and fear.

 

  One of the most effective remedies for dealing with such destructive patterns of thought is to cultivate “loving-kindness” by thinking about the oneness of all the world’s 7 billion humans. If we consider the ways in which we are all the same, the barriers between us will diminish.

 

  Compassion enhances our calm and self-confidence, allowing our marvelous human intelligence to function unhindered. Empathy is hard-wired in our genes — studies have shown that babies as young as 4 months experience it. Research has shown again and again that compassion leads to a successful and fulfilling life. Why, then, do we not focus more on cultivating it into adulthood? When we’re angry, our judgment is one-sided, as we aren’t able to take all aspects of the situation into account. With a calm mind, we can reach a fuller view of whatever circumstances we face.

 

  Humanity is rich in the diversity that naturally arose from the wide expanse of our world, from the variety of languages and ways of writing to our different societal norms and customs. However, when we overemphasize race, nationality, faith, or income or education level, we forget our many similarities. We want a roof over our heads and food in our bellies, to feel safe and secure, and for our children to grow and be strong. As we seek to preserve our own culture and identity, we must also remember that we are one in being human, and work to maintain our warmheartedness toward all.

 

 

  In the last century, the inclination to solve problems through the use of force was invariably destructive and perpetuated conflict. If we are to make this century a period of peace, we must resolve problems through dialogue and diplomacy. Since our lives are so intertwined, the interests of others are also our own. I believe that adopting divisive attitudes runs counter to those interests.

 

  Our interdependence comes with advantages and pitfalls. Although we benefit from a global economy and an ability to communicate and know what is happening worldwide instantaneously, we also face problems that threaten us all. Climate change in particular is a challenge that calls us more than ever to make a common effort to defend the common good.

 

  For those who feel helpless in the face of insurmountable suffering, we are still in the early years of the 21st century. There is time for us to create a better, happier world, but we can’t sit back and expect a miracle. We each have actions we must take, by living our lives meaningfully and in service to our fellow human beings — helping others whenever we can and making every effort to do them no harm.

 

  Tackling destructive emotions and practicing loving-kindness isn’t something we should be doing with the next life, heaven or nirvana in mind, but how we should live in the here and now. I am convinced we can become happier individuals, happier communities and a happier humanity by cultivating a warm heart, allowing our better selves to prevail.

 

  The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, is the spiritual leader of Tibet and a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since 1959 he has lived in exile in Dharamsala, in northern India.

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中國想不戰而主東亞

2017/11/6 明鏡專訪

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=febHZITu-6A&feature=share

 

●少有的1小時訪問。希望能避免淺碟式的內容。敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.11.6

 

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林中斌:小國的智慧──務實、柔軟,才有

繁榮、自由與尊嚴

2017/11/6 天下雜誌

http://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/70/article/6307

 

●感謝天下雜誌的資深辜樹仁先進追問我兩年"何時再投獨立評論?"
●今年8/23新書"撥雲見日"問世後,終於再請辜先生及同仁,如以往,由我口述,他們文字潤色。
● 芬蘭也是在非民主、非自由經濟的蘇聯虎視下保留自由民主和自由經濟的另一小國。但編輯因字數限制決定刪去。有興趣的請參閱撥雲見日
11/4日出版。
●敬請賜教。
● 在下必須承認不甚明白為何插圖像是大國的廟堂(其實是台灣的國家音樂廳)

 

林中斌 2017.11.4

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自由時報在調整嗎?

accessed November 6, 2017

"我們也許能看到加泰隆尼亞獨立運動的無奈,但我們沒有看到自己,我們自認聰明高喊兩地不同,恐怕只是自我安慰。...如果漸漸地多數台灣人希望成為中國的自治區,那麼也只能這樣了。"(李中志/美國伊利諾州立大學教授、北美台灣人教授協會會長,自由時報 2017.11.6 A14)
"政府高層透露...雖說現在多明尼加是穩住了,但也是暫時的,'老實說,如果對方出重手,我們根本沒辦法。'" (鍾麗華/台北報導,自由時報 2017.11.5 A2)
以上兩段摘錄自 連續兩天的自由時報 言論版及第二版。如此"台獨悲觀"論,及"長他人威風,滅自己志氣"的言論,似乎以前沒有出現於自由時報。

林中斌2017.11.6

 

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探討「蔡習會」:蔡的克制和善意 北京讀到  

https://udn.com/news/story/6656/2761265

accessed October 20, 2017

 

●以下是《聯合晚報》記者周佑政在週一2017年10月16日傍晚對在下所作之訪問。於週二10月17日10:28登載上網。
●下一段文字,在10月18日上午習近平唸完十八大報告後,應已證實。他沒有提統一時間表,也沒有提武統:
『「林中斌表示,部分美國與中國大陸學者認為,19大後中共對台政策將「更嚴」,甚至會有「統一時間表」,他不太贊同這種看法。因為即使是「討論式」的統一時間表,也讓中共不光彩,「沒能力做到,為何要訂時間表?」至於「武統」大陸官方現已很少提及,依習近平過去的行事風格,「要是做得到就直接做了,根本不用講。」』
●下一段文字,與在下原意稍有出入:「第三,蔡英文自2015年之後,對兩岸不斷累積善意、謹慎與零意外。第四,北京對蔡英文的作為不會沒有感受,因此會累積蔡在兩岸上的政治資本。」
●「北京對蔡英文的作為不會沒有感受」。此語氣弱了些,似乎暗示在下主觀臆測。其實,在下所說有剪報憑據。包括兩類:
●一,蔡「善意、謹慎、零意外、不挑釁」的實例。二、北京感受到蔡「善意、謹慎、零意外、不挑釁」的實例。敬請參考以下所貼的簡報圖片。
●此外,《新華澳(門)報》主筆富權在2017.10.6社論「十九大後兩岸新模式」中點出習近平報對蔡英文「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」感受到,而北京對蔡也留有餘地。以下為摘錄:
“--從目前情況看,蔡英文一方面拒絕承認「九二共識」,另一方面卻又實行「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」策略,不象陳水扁那樣是個「麻煩製造者」。
--其實從一定角度看,就在蔡英文上台後的這段時間內,習近平要面對的困難不少,包括內部的軍改、打貪,應對幾隻能量極大的「大老虎」;對外的南海仲裁、釣魚島、朝核等問題。蔡英文實行「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」,沒有給對岸增添麻煩,使得北京高層可以中精力處理各種問題。因此,「武統論」一出來,很快就銷聲匿跡。
--而且,直到現在,包括習近平在內的高層,尚未有直接點名批評蔡英文,陸委會也是在台灣當局所有公權力機關中,唯一沒有被大陸官方報導中打上「引號」的機構。這似是要保留一個迴旋空間。”

林中斌 2017.10.20

 

 

林中斌:陸對台將採兩手策略 未來「蔡習會」有可能

2017-10-17 10:28聯合報 記者周佑政╱即時報導
https://udn.com/news/story/6656/2761265 下載 2017.10.20

中共19大明天登場,對於19大後大陸對台政策的走向,曾任國防部副部長的學者林中斌表示,中共將對台採取「兩手策略」,「硬」的部分包括軍機軍艦繞台、減少我邦交國數目,「軟」的方面將持續以「買台」與「窮台」牽制台灣。林中斌也提及7大因素,表示未來「蔡習會」可能成真。

林中斌表示,部分美國與中國大陸學者認為,19大後中共對台政策將「更嚴」,甚至會有「統一時間表」,他不太贊同這種看法。因為即使是「討論式」的統一時間表,也讓中共不光彩,「沒能力做到,為何要訂時間表?」至於「武統」大陸官方現已很少提及,依習近平過去的行事風格,「要是做得到就直接做了,根本不用講。」

林中斌說,中共19大後將對台採取「兩手策略」,「硬」的部分包括軍機軍艦繞台、減少我邦交國數目,陸方不會公開承認對台有不友善企圖,「而是會讓台灣自己感受」。「軟」的方面將持續以「買台」與「窮台」牽制台灣。

他指出,買台是透過一些作為,讓台灣某些政黨在大陸有生意的金主,告訴台灣政治人物,勿將兩岸關係搞得太壞,「因此會看到某個時期,台灣政治人物跳出來比賽,要友中、親中、知中、和中」。窮台則是透過優渥條件,吸引台灣年輕人、企業家與技術人才赴陸。

林中斌更認為,有7大因素,讓未來「蔡習會」成為可能,首先習近平萬丈雄心,絕不允許2022年之前,在兩岸成績上交白卷。其次19大後習的權力鞏固,內部已少有掣肘因素,可以拿出對台更大開大闔的做法。第三,蔡英文自2015年之後,對兩岸不斷累積善意、謹慎與零意外。第四,北京對蔡英文的作為不會沒有感受,因此會累積蔡在兩岸上的政治資本。

此外是美國因素,林中斌指出,美國總統川普比起過去的政府,更依賴習近平,主因是習近平對限制北韓有實際作為,美國即使心裡不願見到兩岸政治磋商,但也沒能力從中作梗。最後則是大陸與鄰近亞洲國家,有許多外交突破,情勢在轉變,「蔡英文一定也看到了」。

前國防部副部長林中斌。圖/聯合報系資料照

 

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As U.S. Confronts Internet’s Disruptions, China Feels Vindicated

Steven Lee Myers and Sui-Lee Wee The New York Times, October 16, 2017

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/16/world/asia/china-internet-cyber-control.html

accessed October 19, 2017

紐約時報報導(不是人民日報報導):
美國現在束手無策。面對假新聞、駭客、外國滲透網路干擾選舉(指俄羅斯),不知如何應付。
中國一向嚴格控制網路,還被西方指責。 它現在覺得雪冤了。
紐約時報,自由派大報,以前是批評中國言論不自由最力的媒體。 現在怎麼啦?
1. 被北京買了?
2.
觀察到以前沒注意的角度?
3.
其他.....

林中斌 試節譯 2017.10.19



HULUNBUIR, China — In the United States, some of the world’s most powerful technology companies face rising pressure to do more to fight false information and stop foreign infiltration.

China, however, has watchdogs like Zhao Jinxu.

From his small town on the windswept grasslands of the Inner Mongolia region of China, Mr. Zhao, 27, scours the internet for fake news, pornography and calls to violence. He is one of a battalion of online “supervisors” whom Weibo, one of China’s biggest social media platforms, announced last month it would hire to help enforce China’s stringent limits on online content.

For years, the United States and others saw this sort of heavy-handed censorship as a sign of political vulnerability and a barrier to China’s economic development. But as countries in the West discuss potential internet restrictions and wring their hands over fake news, hacking and foreign meddling, some in China see a powerful affirmation of the country’s vision for the internet.

“This kind of thing would not happen here,” Mr. Zhao said of the controversy over Russia’s influence in the American presidential election last year.

Besides Communist Party loyalists, few would argue that China’s internet control serves as a model for democratic societies. China squelches online dissent and imprisons many of those who practice it. It blocks foreign news and information, including the website of The New York Times, and promotes homegrown technology companies while banning global services like Facebook and Twitter.

At the same time, China anticipated many of the questions now flummoxing governments from the United States to Germany to Indonesia. Where the Russians have turned the internet into a political weapon, China has used it as a shield.

In fact, when it comes to technology, China has prospered. It has a booming technology culture. Its internet companies rival Facebook and Amazon in heft. To other countries, China may offer an enticing top-down model that suggests that technology can thrive even under the government’s thumb.

 

 

“It doesn’t matter how efficient the internet is,” said Zhu Wei, deputy director of the Communications Law Research Center at the China University of Political Science and Law, which advises the government on internet laws. “It won’t work without security.”

China is not resting on its laurels.

In the weeks leading up to the major party congress that opens in Beijing on Wednesday, the country’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has issued a raft of new regulations.

One, which took effect last week, holds the creators of online forums or group chats responsible for their users’ comments.

Another bans anonymous users, a blow at the bots and deceptive accounts — like those on Facebook and Twitter — that distributed false stories aimed at American voters.

“If our party cannot traverse the hurdle presented by the internet, it cannot traverse the hurdle of remaining in power,” a department of the cyberspace administration wrote in a top party journal last month.

The article was in keeping with President Xi Jinping’s early recognition of the power of the internet. Mr. Xi created and empowered the cyberspace administration, which has subsumed many of the overlapping agencies that once governed content in cyberspace.

The administration is now seen as an institution as important as the defense ministry. Since last year, it has been led by Xu Lin, 54, a party technocrat and former propaganda official, who, like other influential officials who previously worked beside Mr. Xi in Shanghai, has soared through the ranks.

Samm Sacks, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the cyberspace administration was a core part of Mr. Xi’s vow to make China a cyber superpower, on par with the United States.

“There’s a recognition that technology has advanced more quickly than the government’s ability to control it,” Ms. Sacks said. Russia’s interference with Facebook, to cite only one example, was “justification for exactly what they are doing here.”

China’s homegrown internet companies are key to its top-down approach. Tech firms are expected to keep content on file for 60 days and report to the police any forbidden content. The government is acquiring small equity stakes in some tech companies in exchange for board seats, giving it a direct role in the governance of new internet titans.

The tech firms also face tight penalties if they fail to keep users in line. In September, the cybersecurity administration imposed fines on social media platforms owned wholly or in part by three of China’s biggest internet companies — Tencent Holdings, the Alibaba Group and Baidu — for failing to stop the circulation of fabricated rumors, violence and pornography. (Companies can be fined up to $76,000 per offense, and have their business licenses canceled, if they cannot prevent the transmission of banned content.)

Human rights observers worry that the crackdown may have a chilling effect on political speech that is already tightly curbed. Last month, for example, the police raided the home of a university professor, Liu Pengfei, who had hosted a current-affairs forum on Tencent’s WeChat software, one of the world’s most popular messaging apps.

In exchange for accepting tight controls, China internet companies have been allowed to grow while their foreign rivals were shut out of the country. They can now claim their own technology successes. Tencent’s WeChat has transformed social life in China: People use it to chat, pay bills, transfer money, book cabs and hook up romantically.

China is now embarking on an ambitious project to dominate fields like artificial intelligence, and some say China could be at an advantage. It has more than 700 million internet users, and it doesn’t have a robust legal framework to deal with data privacy intrusions. That makes it easier for companies to harness user data — which is core to developing A.I. technology.

Still, China’s advantage could be double-edged. Chinese internet companies have struggled to expand abroad, which experts say stems in part from their dependence on their government.

“To a large extent, the competitive advantage is the political relationship they have with the government there and that’s not something you can carry across borders,” said Lokman Tsui, an assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Moreover, not all of the new restrictions have been welcomed here. Some of the companies — and internet users — balked at tightened enforcement of rules requiring users of social media platforms to provide their real identities to the companies (although they may still use online pseudonyms). Weibo’s announcement that it was seeking 1,000 recruits to become supervisors to report illegal content online — the definitions of which can be expansive — was met by derision on its own site.

“Online and offline, Big Brother is watching,” wrote one user, who used the handle mingxinjianxing.

But when it comes to the controversy over Russia’s intervention, there has been little discussion here. Among the few who are discussing it on Weibo, some expressed shock that the United States does not censor information shared on social media platforms.

Mr. Zhao, the young volunteer on Weibo, is typical of those here who believe government control is justified.

In a restaurant called Europa, Mr. Zhao — who declined to disclose details of where and how he works — described China’s system not as “Big Brother” so much as a younger brother, which he is, protecting children, like those of his sister, from harmful material.

“Even though the internet is virtual, it is still part of society,” he added. “So in any space I feel no one should create pornographic, illegal or violent posts.”

In his new capacity, he scours Weibo in search of the lurid and illicit. Some posts, he explained, are thinly veiled solicitations for pornography or prostitution, including one message he reported to the police the other day for using what he said was a euphemism for selling sex.

When he reports abuse, it is the police who follow up. He excitedly displayed his smartphone to show the latest of his more than 3,000 followers on Weibo: the division of the Beijing police that monitors the internet.

“Normally, if you don’t do bad things, you don’t get followed by the police,” he said. “I think this — for someone who has been online for so many years — is really special.”

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中國為啥不打?真相終於曝光!舉國沸騰!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX6XbsHXlCo&feature=share

accessed October 15, 2017

 

為何不會打台灣?
為何中日不會不免一戰?
為何中美打不起來?
為何一帶一路走得通?
為何蔡習會有可能?

敬請卓參。

林中斌 2017.10.15

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連蜘蛛蟑螂都不殺,要殺魔嗎?

accessed October 15, 2017

佛陀教導我們:
不要摧毀魔,而要催伏魔/降伏魔,或破壞魔的怨氣,誘導魔離開魔的業力。
這種精神與「善惡鬥爭,你死我活,絕不干休,永無止境」是不同的。

●「降伏魔眾永離其業」(八十華嚴/卷廿四/頁755)
金剛幢菩薩所說十迴向中之第二迴向

●「出大光明名能壞魔怨」(八十華嚴/卷卅九/頁1162)
金剛藏菩薩告解脫雲菩薩有關第十地菩薩即法雲地菩薩並受到職位的修為

●「演說大法摧伏魔怨」(八十華嚴/卷卅九/頁1168)
金剛藏菩薩告解脫雲菩薩有關第十地菩薩即法雲地菩薩的修為
來源:八十華嚴:《大方廣佛華嚴經》 (台北:佛陀教育基金會2014年出版)

以上為恭讀華嚴經心得。
敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.10.15

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義救恩師的普丁

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxngs6BmQ9s&app=desktop

accessed October 14, 2017

原來如此!!!
普丁在俄羅斯石油危機經濟拮据下仍獲85%以上人民支持(西方在俄羅斯內所做之民調)
對國家領袖也是自己老闆的忠,與對過去恩師的義,而兩人是政敵,如何兩全
普丁曾不惜自己性命及政治前途義救恩師。
今日世界寡情的政治人物中居然有這號人物!!!
內容精彩,電影情節。
鄭重推薦!!!!
感謝林中明提供。

林中斌 2017.10.14

 

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  2017823日《撥雲見日》新書發表會簡報敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.8.22

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台灣缺乏大戰略指導下的尷尬處境:《撥雲見日》選摘(1

林中斌、亓樂義, 風傳媒, August 10 2017

http://www.storm.mg/article/311574

accessed August 14, 2017

前言:

1478年,義大利北部城邦翡冷翠(Firenze, 佛羅倫斯)與羅馬教廷交惡。教皇組織聯盟大軍壓境,翡冷翠危在旦夕。

孤立無援的翡冷翠君主羅倫佐(Lorenzo de Medici, 144992),年僅29。深沉的外表,掩飾這位君主的年少。大敵當前,他簡從厚禮,前赴教廷盟友之一的城邦拿玻里(Napoli),折衝3個月,成功說服其國王費蘭德(Ferrante, 142394)退出羅馬聯盟,引發骨牌效應,羅馬被迫撤軍。

羅倫佐解除危機後聲名大噪,但他沒有得意忘形,更是小心翼翼經營義大利北部城邦間的和平政策,與鄰近的奧圖曼帝國保持良好關係,甚至捐棄前嫌,派家人進入羅馬,服伺教廷。

30年後,他的2個兒子先後當選為羅馬教皇,史稱里奧十世(Leo X))與克里門七世(Clement VII)。翡冷翠不但未被羅馬消滅,反而經由積極參與和侍奉羅馬,反而成了教廷的主人。

羅倫佐一手經略和平環境,一手大倡歐洲失傳已久的古希臘經典文化,宮廷裡古典學者穿梭不止。他還重振比薩大學為世界頂尖學府,鼓勵新穎的科學發明,達文西(Leonardo da Vinci, 14521519)和米開蘭基羅(Michelangelo Buonarroti, 14751564)均受恩於他,從而開創輝煌的文藝復興,由翡冷翠擴散至義大利,再至歐洲,廣傳四海,帶動人類文明,進而改變世界。

翡冷翠是大戰略的典範

作為一個小國寡民的統治者,羅倫佐的大戰略無非是要生存與發展,以確保家族永續的統治地位。為達此戰略目標,他運用外交、經濟、金融、地緣乃至文化上的所有資源和手段,並在目標和手段之間做出合理安排,在堅持與妥協之間做出通盤考慮。過與不及,都可能使翡冷翠遭到滅頂之災。

費蘭德以殘暴出名,曾殺來使並製成木乃伊點綴餐廳。羅倫佐前往求見,除了膽識過人,還能洞見拿玻裡是拆解教皇聯盟的突破口,故而以身試險;3個月的談判,不可能只談權謀政治。羅倫佐成長於當時歐洲最有名望之一的麥迪奇(Medici)家族,父親熱心於藝術贊助和收藏,母親是業餘詩人。他允文允武,不只19歲比武贏得冠軍,又熱愛藝術和哲學,並慷慨贊助不少學者、藝術家和詩人。從小父親就委派他去羅馬會見教皇或參加重要宗教和政治活動,其外交才能在天賦之外又加薰陶歷練。

羅倫佐能打動費蘭德及其皇后的心,除了個人魅力和學養,以及他雄厚的家族資源,也必定在費蘭德心中留下「保住翡冷翠,就是保住自己」的深刻戰略認知。

當然,像羅倫佐這般天縱英明的統治者,歷來少見。作為一個現代民主國家,台灣不能寄望於12位所謂的聖君賢相,而應該並且有條件組成一個廉能高效的政府,群策群力把台灣帶往一個民主、繁榮、均富的國家之林。

大戰略超越軍事,涵蓋政治、經濟、外交、社會、文化、心理,乃至環境生態等非傳統安全領域,涉及國家總體生存與發展等各層面。沒有大戰略觀,政府將手忙腳亂,頭痛醫頭,腳痛醫腳。一個國家通常所追求的目標,不外乎政治尊嚴、經濟發展與國防安全,3項同時做到最好,但那往往只出現在歷史上少數強國的特定時空,絕大多數的情況是有所取捨;孰先孰後,如何在目標和手段之間求取平衡,考驗執政者的智慧和能力。這就是大戰略的功能之一。

美國總統柯林頓(William J. Clinton)上台時,首要之務是減少赤字,刺激經濟,促進繁榮。因此他在外交上就自由、民主、人權的政治立場上妥協,給予非民主的中國最惠國待遇,卸任時他真的做到赤字歸零。到了小布希(George W. Bush)執政,他把自由民主人權列為首要,猛批中共,雙邊關係鬧得很僵。「911」恐怖攻擊發生後,安全反恐列為優先,美中關係轉緩。因此有北京學者稱,恐怖攻擊基本扭轉了911之前中美關係惡化的趨勢。

再來看台灣。李登輝總統主政初期,開啟辜汪會談,和大陸保持穩定關係。從19957月至963月發生兩岸飛彈危機後,李登輝對台商在大陸投資改採「戒急用忍」政策,引起工商界對「國家安全和商業利益」如何取得平衡的激辯。各界毀譽參半,評價兩極。但有一點可以確定,從1997年起台灣經濟成長下滑,台塑集團董事長王永慶為此發表《正視台灣經濟處境,採取必要對應措施》萬言書,送交新上任總統陳水扁,痛批李登輝12年執政把台灣經濟帶入慘境。又稱鎖國政策。

大戰略是一個有機的整體。政治、經濟、軍事、外交、社會、文化、心理乃至環境生態等,相輔相成又相互制約,任何片面的觀點和做法均不足取,需要從總體上審時度勢。尊嚴、繁榮和安全,從空間上看,涉及兩岸和區域安全與經貿整合,有輕重緩急;時間上需有中短期規劃,能一以貫之。從陳水扁到馬英九執政,大戰略的優先順序不明,看不出中短期規劃,各部會凡事請示,事後又難以自圓其說,在在說明缺乏大戰略指導下的尷尬處境。

一般而言,各國大戰略實施的路徑和手段,基於不同國情、國力和所處的地緣環境與威脅而互有差異。台灣既處於博弈的大國之間,又在兩岸關係亦敵亦友,國內認同嚴重分歧的交互運作下,情況異常複雜,歷史少有先例。《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》僅以事態分析,不做理論探討,盡可能不受政治立場的牽絆,進而闡明台灣為求生存與發展應有的戰略思考與作為。

《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》共分3篇,依序是「中國的前景」、「美國的變局」與「台灣的抉擇」。中國崛起勢不可擋,對台灣的影響最為直接,故以首篇開局;美國國力下滑,新任總統帶來變數,但仍主導世界與亞太格局,失察攸關台灣生存發展,繼以中篇;作為中美兩強的戰略前沿,台灣只有看清中美動向,撥雲見日,才能做出正確抉擇,作為結尾。

*作者林中斌為前國防部副部長、前陸委會副主委;亓樂義為資深媒體人。本文選自兩人合著之《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》前言。

 

 

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中國因應美軍 鬥而不破:《撥雲見日》選摘(2

林中斌、亓樂義, 風傳媒, August 11 2017

http://www.storm.mg/article/311593

accessed August 14, 2017

「美艦將闖陸造礁12浬,恐起戰端。」

這是20151013日《旺報》標題。背景是:10月初,美國宣布派遣「拉森號」(Lassen)驅逐艦巡弋南中國海,將通過中國人工島礁附近,以挑戰北京號稱的領海。中國外交部發言人華春瑩9日表示:「中方……絕不允許任何國家以『維護航行和飛越自由』為名侵犯中國在南沙群島的領海和領空。」情勢緊張。

1個上升的強權(中國)和另1個在位的強權(美國)真的不免一戰嗎?美國在20159月習近平訪美所謂「失敗」後對中國戰略轉硬嗎?台灣聯合美、日對抗中國的機會真的來臨了嗎?

20151027日,拉森號接近中國人工島礁最近達7海浬。前後10天內,中國飛彈驅逐艦「蘭州號」、「台州號」尾隨在其後。中方不但沒動武,而且水兵還用英文與美方水兵話家常,離開時說:「祝你們有個愉快的旅程,期待下次再相逢。」

之前,1022日,雖然美艦已航向中國南海島礁,中國海軍司令員吳勝利仍說:「當今中、美海軍關係進入歷史上最好時刻。」因為中、美海軍交流空前頻繁。2月初,中國海軍艦長30人赴美進行1周的訪問,是中國有史以來首次派大規模一線指揮官赴美交流。1013日,中國「鄭和號」訓練艦赴夏威夷珍珠港訪問。1019日,中國航空母艦「遼寧號」讓來訪的美國海軍艦艇長27人登上參觀,是首次對外國一線指揮官開放。

 之後,117日,中國第20批亞丁灣護航艦隊6艦艇,進入大西洋到達美國東部佛羅里達州外海,與美國海軍舉行聯合演習。此為中、美海軍首次握手於大西洋。

 1116日,美國闖南海的拉森號姊妹艦「史塔森號」(Stethem)抵達上海,停泊於北面吳淞軍港,進行5天訪問。這是首次美國軍艦停泊中國軍港。

美方如何看拉森號南海巡航?

 1028日《紐約時報》說:拉森號低調的航經中國人工島礁後,「迅速而安靜的離開。」被澳洲學者修.懷特(Hugh White)認為是懦弱(timid)的行為。之後,美國官員對拉森號闖中國人工島礁細節一律封口不提。即使在野黨參議員馬侃(John S. McCain III119日寫信質問美國國防部長:拉森號當時有無打開雷達和火炮?如果是關的,等於美國默認中國人工島礁的12浬領海。但是未得答覆。

對中國南海人工島礁號稱的領海,為何美國高調挑戰但低調動作?

 因為歐巴馬被在野黨抓住機會大肆批評他對中國軟弱,妨礙他施政,他姿態不得不硬。但美國經濟依賴中國日深,他動作不得不軟。2015年頭9個月,中美貿易總額為4,416億美元,使得中國超越加拿大首次躍昇為美國最大貿易夥伴。

 何況2004年萌芽的美國「調適派」現已成型。20157月,美國亞洲協會(Asian Society)美中關係主任夏偉(Orville Schell)主張承認南海是中國勢力範圍,就像加勒比海是美國勢力範圍一樣。同時,美前國務院亞太副助卿柯慶生(Thomas Christensen)出書說,不應遏止中國崛起 

 中國海軍為何增加與美國海軍善意交流?北京深知美軍強大要避免攖其鋒,最好善用「超軍事」的手段如經濟、外交、文化、媒體、心理等「不戰而主東亞」。等待美國力有未逮自動退出西太平洋。那才符合孫子兵法「不戰而屈人之兵」。更重要的是,中國經濟長期依存美國,因為美國也是中國多年來的頭號貿易夥伴。

中、美雙方在南海「鬥而不破」,有2個因素。第1個是中、美雙方共有的。第2個是中國獨有的。

 ●對外強硬,對內表態。中、美各自都有內部考量,不能對外軟弱。中、美各自對外強硬,可對內加分、也可對內減壓。

 ●超軍事手段優先(extra-military emphasis)。這是中國外交戰略的特色。它與美國外交戰略特色「軍事手段優先」成為強烈的對比。「超軍事手段優先」有很深的中國戰略文化根源,2,000多年以前就開始了。它包含在今日北京對美所倡議的「新型大國關係」外交政策裡。它也是2004年左右開始浮現的北京大戰略。

*作者林中斌為前國防部副部長、前陸委會副主委;亓樂義為資深媒體人。本文選自兩人合著之《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》。

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台灣還需要國防的原因,你不能不知道:《撥雲見日》選摘(3

林中斌、亓樂義, 風傳媒, August 12 2017

http://www.storm.mg/article/311620

accessed August 14, 2017

幾年前,兩岸情勢緩和,台灣經濟疲軟,政府預算拮据。有人質疑:台灣還需要國防嗎?其實,台灣需要國防至少有4個原因:

●嚇阻共軍犯台:台灣備有國防能量,使北京若以武力犯台必付出代價。若北京內部鷹派主張對台動武,北京內部穩重派將以武力對台代價太高,說服鷹派放棄對台動武。

●兩岸談判的後盾:如果將來兩岸展開談判,台灣若無國防做後盾,將陷入予取予求之劣勢。即使在兩岸和平時期,台灣的軍力不可或缺。正如歐洲中立國瑞士(1815之後)和之前的瑞典(1812-1995),都有精良的武力做後盾的道理是一樣的。

●護漁護島:台灣與菲律賓、日本等鄰國常有漁事糾紛。台灣漁船常遭扣留。在可能情形下,台灣海軍至少能馳援保護漁民。台灣在南沙太平島的疆域更需要軍力護衛。台灣的國防軍力不只是對付共軍的威脅而已。

●救災:世界進入21世紀,「非傳統安全」的威脅上升。全球天然和人為災害頻仍。雪災、森林火災、地震、火山爆發、海嘯、海盜劫船、恐怖攻擊、傳染病變多。包括中國在內的世界大國,都更重視發展「戰爭以外的軍事行動」能力,台灣如何能例外?台灣加強此種能力,可因應國內災變,也可參與國際救援。

解除台灣國防桎梏:戰略防守、戰術攻擊、多重嚇阻、聚散自如

台灣國防最明顯而具體的困境有2。一是經濟疲軟,購買昂貴的高科技武器,錢從哪兒來?二是即使有錢買,賣主(美國)願意出售給台灣嗎?例如,台灣多年來對美要求購買F16 -C&D戰機,但一直無法如願。雖然韓國都從美獲得F16- C&D戰機,台灣就是不能。

若台灣寄望於性格善變、團隊多事的川普總統大力軍援台灣,實際嗎?解放軍已快速現代化,多核彈頭的東風-41洲際飛彈可打擊全美。共軍專打航母戰鬥群的東風-21D及東風-26,還有自潛艇發射的巡弋飛彈,都可讓馳援台海的美軍躊躇不前。199596年台海危機時,美軍派2艘航母戰鬥群前來嚇阻共軍的場面不再可能出現。

美軍不到,國軍抵擋共軍即使數周,最後也無力固守。嚇阻共軍登台最有效的選項,無法靠軍力,必需靠心理。

因此,台灣必須放棄傳統思維,另找國防的出路。出路有2:一是重訂國防指導原則,由文字累贅、語意軟弱的「防衛固守、有效嚇阻」,調整為「戰略防守、戰術攻擊、多重嚇阻、聚散自如」,減縮版為「戰略防守、多重嚇阻」,為20094月筆者中斌所提出之建議  。二是培養廉價制敵的「水泥叢林的游擊戰」能力。

原來國防指導原則中的「防衛」與「固守」意義重疊,單說「防衛」已足夠,多說「固守」有壯膽之嫌。單說「嚇阻」已足夠,多說「有效」,反而引人聯想「難道有無效之可能?」,不免沾了「此地無銀三百兩」之嫌。

又,「防衛固守」語氣比「戰略防守」被動。因為「防衛固守」只是守勢而已,但「戰略防守」包含了「戰術攻擊」的意涵。其全文是「戰略防守、戰術攻擊」。在減縮版中只提「戰略防守」也是「藏鋒」之意,有助於兩岸和諧氣氛的培養。

戰略特色是時間長、空間大、面向多(軍事/政治/經濟/社會/外交等等)。戰術是時間短、空間小、面向少(軍事而已)。台灣在戰略高度是防守,無意攻擊對岸。而在戰術階層是攻擊。意指萬一被共軍侵犯,台灣要有精良的殲敵能力。

「多重嚇阻」意為台灣把有限的經費,聰明的分配到不同層次的武力上,以消除北京動武攻台的意願。不同層次的武力由高科技到中科技到低科技,由昂貴到低廉、由少量到多量。例如15%昂貴的高科技武力、25%次昂貴的中科技武力、60%相對起來低廉的低科技武力。3者的比例依序可為30%30%40%,或其他組合,由國防部深入研究後決定。

台灣第一重嚇阻是兩岸交往。第二重嚇阻是高科技和中科技戰力。第三重嚇阻是水泥叢林游擊戰。但不是硬碰硬慘烈的城鎮戰,如二戰中的史達林格勒之役。

「重層嚇阻」是台灣國防部20173月初揭櫫的戰略指導。參謀本部作戰與計畫次長姜振中被立委問到:「多重嚇阻」,和「重層嚇阻」有何差別?他說「是一樣的」。既然「多重嚇阻」是筆者中斌自20094月起便多次發表的建言,故在此書中仍然沿用。

因為共軍學習美軍高科技戰爭的打法,我們要學習讓美軍灰頭土臉的伊拉克游擊隊的打法。何況,台灣從南至北都是水泥樓房,掩體比伊拉克黃土一片好太多。共軍一旦發動攻台,遲早會登陸。台灣平日就要展示能力:共軍登台容易,但結束戰事困難。因為化整為零的獨立狙擊手神出鬼沒,今天放2槍,後天打4槍,除之不盡。下決定攻台的北京領袖便會遭內部政敵責難和挑戰,甚至面臨奪權的威脅。這種可能性,便會嚇阻最初決定軍事攻台的領袖。因而一開始,他便不隨意下令攻台。

如果北京領袖避免軍事攻台,而採取軍事以外的手段統一台灣,台灣國防部的任務已大致完成。處理其他兩岸的挑戰,便可交給國防部以外的部會。

這種「水泥叢林的游擊戰」能力要經常展示,以無言的方式嚇阻北京領導切勿武力攻台。

狙擊手可獨立作業,萬一國軍指揮系統被共軍打斷。打斷國軍指揮系統的「電磁脈衝」彈頭共軍已擁有多年,而且不需要引爆小型核彈產生「電磁脈衝」效應。它可破壞我方電子通訊系統,而無人傷亡。此種彈頭可配在各式飛彈上,可由戰機空中扔擲,亦可裝在背包裡由單人攜帶濳入我方引爆。

「水泥叢林的游擊戰」不是慘烈、玉石俱焚像史達林格勒一般的正規戰、城鎮戰。它應該是像毛澤東所說的「敵來我退,敵駐我擾,敵疲我打」的游擊戰。

台灣獲得昂貴的高科技戰力,操之在人。但培養低科技戰力,操之在我。後者即是「不對稱戰爭」:台灣以「水泥叢林的游擊戰」對付共軍戰機、軍艦、飛彈的高科技戰爭,達到嚇阻的目的。

19631975年間,來台參與「明德專案」的德軍將領奧斯卡.孟澤爾(Oskar Munzel 1899-1992)、庫爾特.考夫曼(Kurt Kauffmann)等早已建議:對抗共軍,台灣以寡擊眾、節約物資應為國軍建軍採取的方向,包括組建山地部隊,加強台灣防衛作戰。可惜歷時3年的谷關山訓和實驗,因陸軍總司令于豪章視察演習墜機重傷後而「人損政息」,谷關山地實驗營最終付諸東流,當初成立山地旅的構想也就不了了之。孟澤爾是身經一次及二次大戰,並曾在閃擊戰名將古德林(Heinz Guderian 1888-1954)麾下歷練的老將。其眼光反映出戰場出生入死務實的經驗,並非標新立異之學說。當時台灣都市化尚未普及,望眼皆為天野和山地。如今台灣,高樓大廈比比皆是。以前以山地為掩體的游擊戰觀念,在今日自然延伸適用於以「水泥叢林」為掩體的另類游擊戰。

有人說台灣青年生活舒適、體力低落、缺乏鬥志,不適合打「水泥叢林的游擊戰」。我要反問:有沒有任何戰爭適合生活舒適、體力低落、缺乏鬥志的青年打?難道我們打按鈕式的高科技戰爭會更有把握拒敵於境外嗎?而且,購買昂貴的高科技武器的經費從哪來?

此外,生活舒適、體力低落、缺乏鬥志更像台灣北部青年。中南部青年不盡如此。

何況,伊拉克游擊隊成員估計為3,0007,000人,占全伊拉克3,700萬人口萬分之一至萬分之二。對照台灣2,300萬人口,所需游擊隊員為2,0004,000人,占2015年國軍志願役人數14萬的1/702/70。也就是說,在國軍志願役70人中找12人。會很困難嗎?

「水泥叢林的游擊戰」嚴格說並非城鎮戰,但與城鎮戰有類似之處。前者更注重機動單兵的獨立作戰。其相應的準備,眼下至少有3項可以進行。一、恢復我特戰部隊並提升其配備及演訓。二、全民國防配合特戰,演訓後勤醫護。三、國防大學廣收近來以弱對強非對稱作戰的戰例,並派人實地勘查。

*作者林中斌為前國防部副部長、前陸委會副主委;亓樂義為資深媒體人。本文選自兩人合著之《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局

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不要說不可能,「蔡習會」探索:《撥雲見日》選摘(4

林中斌、亓樂義, 風傳媒, August 13 2017

http://www.storm.mg/article/311642

accessed August 14, 2017

2017年3月6日,中共開兩會期間,有日本記者觀察到「習近平批台獨時,並未點名蔡英文。」在兩岸官方互動冷凍的情況下,這現象耐人尋味。令人想起1年之前,2016年3月20日,台灣國安局長楊國強在立法院答詢時說北京「重批獨,少批蔡」。無論原因為「蔡習間有默契」或「習仍未放棄與蔡互動」,這兩事件構成的軌跡值得我們向後回顧以尋求其來源,也值得我們向前探索其未來的發展。

 

2015年春天,筆者中斌曾數次警告:如果民進黨總統候選人蔡英文不調整帶「兩國論」色彩的兩岸關係說法,一旦她當選總統,台灣可能面臨「雪崩式的斷交」。2015年4月12日,蔡英文向中間調整,說兩岸是「政府與政府的關係」,沒有說是「國與國的關係」,同時提出爭議最少的「維持現狀」兩岸政策。

之後,一直到2016116日蔡英文當選總統,她打破了過去民進黨的巢臼,不斷的表達對北京及習近平的善意。●201567日,蔡英文在舊金山被問到她之前曾經否認的「九二共識」時說:「九二共識的精神就是求同存異」。蔡間接肯定了九二共識。●2015615日,蔡英文在華府稱讚習近平是「最了解台灣的大陸領導人」、「非常堅定有決心」,而且她喜歡習近平的「反腐運動」。這與陳水扁總統批評中共領導人胡錦濤軟弱成為強烈對比。●2015922日,在蔡英文主持的民進黨黨慶酒會上,中華民國的國旗首次在主席台上出現。她展示了自己與民進黨傳統上憧憬「台灣共和國」的距離。●2015924日,蔡英文表示如果她當選,不排除「蔡習會」。●20151225日,蔡英文進一步說,她沒有否認1992年兩岸會談的歷史事實。●2016118日,當選後2天,蔡英文說,選舉期間,對岸非常克制,她感受到他們善意。

201725日,海基會舉辦大陸台商春節聯誼,全國台企聯榮譽會長郭山輝轉述,蔡英文透露下半年可能會視時機宣示新的兩岸政策  。這時間點是習近平人馬已進駐上海,習在各省市部署人事接近完成的半個月之後。20173月中共兩會期間,如前所述,高層「和平統一」的論調已取代了1年來「武力統一」的聲勢。

進入2017年,蔡英文原先個人對統獨議題的謹慎姿態開始擴大。不只是謹慎,台北言行甚至逐漸接近北京調整過並退一步的要求。那就是:如果蔡英文說出「九二共識」有(內部)困難,只要台北表達兩岸並非兩國,北京對台北冷凍的做法可以緩解。

蔡英文的執政團隊開始表現出這種新的趨勢。她有關國家安全的閣員—外交、兩岸、國防—逐漸偏離民進黨傳統帶台獨色彩的立場。在217日,外交部長李大維說:「釣魚台是中華民國的領土。」這是重視台灣和日本關係的民進黨政府從未表達過的立場。322日,李大維說:「兩岸不是外交關係。」同日,陸委會主委張小月說:「兩岸協議非國際協定。」更早,在32日,國防部長馮世寬公開排除美國在台灣部署薩德飛彈的可能。在台灣部署薩德會討好華府但得罪北京,應該是傳統民進黨樂見的政策,但被馮部長公開否定了。325日,台日斷交後最高層日本官員總務副大臣赤間二郎(相當於台灣內政部副部長)訪台,但遭蔡英文迴避接見。

20173月,武統論在中國大陸受高層駁斥而趨於寂靜之後,北京在4月對台啟動了官方智庫和涉台學者來台交流。這是2016520日蔡英文就職總統後,北京緊縮冷凍雙方交流後的新局面。其中最顯眼的是國台辦前發言人李維一,以學者身分20175月底率32人學術交流團來台參加學術會議。而這些官方智庫和涉台學者來台參加的會議中,多有台灣陸委會和外交部的官員出席。雙方接觸已打破過去1年來的限制。

2017年春向前展望,雖然表面看來機率尚渺茫,但不能排除的是「蔡習會」的苗頭其實已萌芽。理由有4

●習近平固權比2016年初大幅進展。他在大陸各省市部署人馬大致完成。在以往,大陸內部鞏固,北京對台彈性。201741日,習近平甚至同時撤換四個省的第一把手,包括海南、甘肅、山東、黑龍江等。有評論說,此舉使江澤民勢力「潰不成軍」。

2017年底中共十九大的前景比過去樂觀。若依習近平的規劃順利完成,處理內政問題大幅進展之後,他將有餘力專注台灣問題,謀求突破。企圖心旺盛的他,不會允許自己任內對台問題交白卷。

20174月川普與習近平歷史性會晤後,雙方對於限制北韓核武發展的合作超過原先的預期。川普重視利益的交換而不受政策傳統或政治原則的約束。華府歷來對台灣的保證可能動搖。川習關係加強後,北京「經美制台」將比以往更為徹底。

●蔡英文在台灣內政上遭遇瓶頸,民調低迷。若她在兩岸方面有所進展,將有助於她2020年總統連任的選舉。

*作者林中斌為前國防部副部長、前陸委會副主委;亓樂義為資深媒體人。本文選自兩人合著之《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》。本系列結束。

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撥雲見日》新書發表會

accessed August 11, 2017

 

2017年8月23日星期三下午13:00至15:00在陸軍聯誼社

(台北市中正區南昌路一段136號 02 2321 6910)

63年前(1954),先父林文奎時以空軍上校出任陸軍總司令孫立人麾下的陸軍中將二署署長。孫立人奉命去職,74日在此,其官邸,宴請新任總司令黃杰及一級主管 。孫臨時赴總統府陪見外賓,敬酒後離席。

先父起身說:「我不幹了。」宴席不歡而散。

 

林中斌 2017.8.11

 

 

《孫立人傳 》作者,沈克勤大使,2015.8.19, 親贈大作,並與孫立人將軍侄孫,孫善維合影於其矽谷住所。沈克勤大使再度告訴我:...當年宴會席上,一堆馬屁精,諂媚新主,迎合蔣家父子,爭相表態,詆毀孫將軍。令尊大怒,拍桌而起,大聲說 「我不幹了。」一座皆驚 !!沈大使說此往事,記憶猶新,眉飛色舞。大讚家父正直剛毅。感懷不已。

/林中明附照記事。佐證補充家兄所引書中,口述歷史文字。

 林中明2017.8.11

 

 

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A Broken U.S. economy, in one simple chart

David Leonhardt, The New York Times, August 7, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/opinion/leonhardt-income-inequality.html?_r=0

accessed August 11, 2017

●這一張圖說盡美國34年來社會上收入不公平惡化的嚴重。1980年,每年收入增加最多的是最窮的5%的人。而2014年,每年收入增加最多的是最富有的0.001%的人。這才是美國最嚴重的問題。川普不是。他是結果,不是原因。

林中斌 2017.8.11

Many Americans can’t remember anything other than an economy with skyrocketing inequality, in which living standards for most Americans are stagnating and the rich are pulling away. It feels inevitable.

But it’s not.

A well-known team of inequality researchers — Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman — has been getting some attention recently for a chart it produced. It shows the change in income between 1980 and 2014 for every point on the distribution, and it neatly summarizes the recent soaring of inequality.

The line on the chart (which we have recreated as the red line above) resembles a classic hockey-stick graph. It’s mostly flat and close to zero, before spiking upward at the end. That spike shows that the very affluent, and only the very affluent, have received significant raises in recent decades.

This line captures the rise in inequality better than any other chart or simple summary that I’ve seen. So I went to the economists with a request: Could they produce versions of their chart for years before 1980, to capture the income trends following World War II? You are looking at the result here.

The gray line in the chart above, labeled "1980," shows the change in income from 1946 to 1980. Below, you can watch the change across every 34-year period starting with 1946-1980 and ending with 1980-2014. Each line is labeled with the final year in the period:

    The message is straightforward. Only a few decades ago, the middle class and the poor weren’t just receiving healthy raises. Their take-home pay was rising even more rapidly, in percentage terms, than the pay of the rich.

    The post-inflation, after-tax raises that were typical for the middle class during the pre-1980 period — about 2 percent a year — translate into rapid gains in living standards. At that rate, a household’s income almost doubles every 34 years. (The economists used 34-year windows to stay consistent with their original chart, which covered 1980 through 2014.)

    In recent decades, by contrast, only very affluent families — those in roughly the top 1/40th of the income distribution — have received such large raises. Yes, the upper-middle class has done better than the middle class or the poor, but the huge gaps are between the super-rich and everyone else.

    The basic problem is that most families used to receive something approaching their fair share of economic growth, and they don’t anymore.

     It’s true that the country can’t magically return to the 1950s and 1960s (nor would we want to, all things considered). Economic growth was faster in those decades than we can reasonably expect today. Yet there is nothing natural about the distribution of today’s growth — the fact that our economic bounty flows overwhelmingly to a small share of the population.

    Different policies could produce a different outcome. My list would start with a tax code that does less to favor the affluent, a better-functioning education system, more bargaining power for workers and less tolerance for corporate consolidation.

    Remarkably, President Trump and the Republican leaders in Congress are trying to go in the other direction. They spent months trying to take away health insurance from millions of middle-class and poor families. Their initial tax-reform planswould reduce taxes for the rich much more than for everyone else. And they want to cut spending on schools, even though education is the single best way to improve middle-class living standards over the long term.

   Most Americans would look at these charts and conclude that inequality is out of control. The president, on the other hand, seems to think that inequality isn’t big enough.

 

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Eulogy for Milton Liao

accessed August 9, 2017

●昨晚交出最後一次的書稿大樣修改。編輯今日把全書定稿送至印刷廠。終於我可清理多年來累積雜亂的書桌。

2008年在故好友廖文中告別式上的追悼詞於是浮出在眼前。

2007年12月7日的照片中,廖坐在前排右手。後排右邊第二位是當時的淡江大學研究生今日中正大學的林穎佑教授。

●時間飛逝。後之看今,如今之看昔。

 

林中斌 2017.8.9

 

As I finally could clean up my desk after having submitted the third and last galley proof of the book manuscript, the eulogy for my late dear friend Milton Liao came to sight. The photo was taken December 12, 2007. Milton is first on the right at the front. Dr. Ocean Lin was the second from right on the back. Milton passed away February 2008.

Chong-Pin Lin August 9, 2017

 

廖文中先生,文武全才。2003年,才見了兩面,忽然以 軍事計劃,展開行動, 代籌《斌心雕龍》一書的編輯,打字,封面設計,強推學生書局,重商輕士的鮑經理,出版此書。果然應了劉臺柱先生2002年,驚人預言的第一步。事後看來,廖劉兩位高士,可能都是應運(應劫)而來,智行過人的奇人。他們功成驟去,令人感傷,但也讓我們對不可見的手,起更大的敬畏。 因借舊聯,復輓之曰:七海縱橫猶執信。六藝傳承豈忘仁。 敬禮!

林中明 2017.8.9

 

 

 


 

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