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誰是飛虎隊中方代表 - Part 2

accessed April 22, 2019


◆ 此事,乃抗日戰爭中的歷史要事之一。 但可惜被 攬功者 ,特意抹煞了中國人,從開始協助(不會說中文的陳納德等老美“) 建立飛虎隊,到美國募捐飛機,招攬美國華僑(說粵語,英文,大多不會說 普通話“ )在舊金山訓練,回國參戰 ( 粵語溝通!安排起居,教課),研判情報 (中,英,法,德,俄,日文),聯繫英美使館,協助建立機場 (... 芷江,作戰 ) ,支援遠征軍...等等貢獻。
◆為證明其事,南京中山陵管理局,特派梅處長及鄢主任,專程到北京,陪我們一同拜訪當年由清華大學梅貽琦校長,特薦到昆明飛虎隊,機要秘書室 (清華大學畢業的林文奎校友主持) 服務,的外文系高材生許淵沖。
◆ 許淵沖當年曾出任家父林文奎之 機要秘書室 (40人的大編制, 有參謀4人,翻譯官4人,吉普車1輛,腳踏車2輛!)主任之翻譯官兼助理,幫忙翻譯情報室“ (林文奎兼任主任 ) 研判之日軍在越南和雲南一帶的中日文情報,給陳納德參考,做為對日空軍戰鬥,派遣飛機佈陣攻防之用。許淵沖曾因協助破譯日軍飛機將襲昆明,導致飛虎隊1941.12.20預伏昆明上空,一舉全殲 
日本9架轟炸機!(當場擊落3架,所擊傷6架,後均墜毀於逃返河內途中)史稱中華民國抗日以來,空軍首次 9:0 之大捷!!因榮獲陳納德頒贈金質飛虎勛章。此事見於許淵沖教授西南聯大歲月回憶錄。
◆ 熟悉當年的飛虎隊中方參謀本部的歷史,97歲的中國翻譯學大師,許淵沖教授是有發言權碩果僅存,而且頭腦清析的唯一一位。所以我們 (自美飛北京),爭取時間,預約2018.10.12拜訪,剛開刀出院不久,尚在家臥床休養的許淵沖教授,並作錄像錄音,以記錄此一飛虎隊歷史要事。
◆許淵沖告訴我,他受到家父的感召,於1945也投考空軍官校,獲取。正準備學飛行,升空抗日。結果日本無條件投降。清華大學梅貽琦校長乃勸他辭軍。他因為家父當年留學考察意,德,法,英,勤習外語,學以致用。所以他決定學家父,出國深造。後來成為中國翻譯第一大家,起因於此! 我們當時聽了,都大吃一驚!! (去年1012) 他還很得意地 告訴我,他剛達到出版120本中,英,法,翻譯,論說,寫作的書! (上月底,在鎮江開會。聽北大外文系學者說,許老現在已達到出版130冊 云云! )
◆去年111日,是聯大80年校慶。所以電視台特別訪問這些 碩果僅存老聯大。 他說 (10.12),楊振寧和他,準備要返校唱西南聯大校歌。我笑著說: 您可知道,西南聯大校歌,詞和曲是誰寫的? 老先生說: 我唱了 近80年,但不清楚是誰寫的。 我說 曲是我二舅張清常寫的。詞嗎,不是馮友蘭文學院長,而是羅庸中文系主任寫的。記事見於 西南聯大校史,我的三姨,張寄謙(北大歷史系)主編的。這次,輪到他 大吃一驚。哈哈。 讓97歲的老聯大大吃一驚 ! 那可是不容易的事。 
😉
/林中明記。2019.4.18 (1: 林中明持許淵沖教授贈書四冊之一,鄢增華站後,與許淵沖教授合影。梅處長幫忙錄像。黃雅純攝影。圖2:林中明向許淵沖教授請教他所譯《論語》和《老子》中的 義譯 問題。許老毫不含糊,獅子搏兔,亦據理力解!真大學者風範也。2018.10.12 11AM, 北京大學,暢春園教授宿舍)

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飛虎隊中方代表

accessed April 22, 2019

舍弟林中明去年1012日前赴北京拜訪97歲的北京大學教授翻譯大師許淵沖。抗戰時期,許當時是西南聯大學生被聘請在飛虎隊竊讀日軍電報。許淵沖口說:先父林文奎(中校)乃飛虎隊與美方代表陳納德合作的中方代表。
林中斌 2019.4.19

"....然美國正義之士,傾力援華,與中方聯合組建飛虎隊,隊長為美利堅人,中文名陳納德,系美方代表,而中方代表則是林文奎。陳納德與妻陳香梅回憶錄中,對林氏隻字未提,故世人知之甚少。直至今日,中明兄赴北京,拜訪耄耋之年的北大教授、著名翻譯家許淵沖,一番深談,才知中方代表即其父,真相乃大白於天下。"

林中明獎學金誕生記

林中明者,民國飛將軍林文奎之子也。國人知文奎者少,然言飛虎隊則世人皆知。八十年前,日本軍國勢力彌漫,裕仁天皇與德意志希特勒,義大利墨索里尼結盟,稱軸心國,意欲三分天下。時日本視吾國貧弱,肆意侵略,國民政府剛組建之空軍毀壞怠盡,然美國正義之士,傾力援華,與中方聯合組建飛虎隊,隊長為美利堅人,中文名陳納德,系美方代表,而中方代表則是林文奎。陳納德與妻陳香梅回憶錄中,對林氏隻字未提,故世人知之甚少。直至今日,中明兄赴北京,拜訪耄耋之年的清華教授、著名翻譯家許淵沖,一番深談,才知中方代表即其父,真相乃大白於天下。
林中明夫婦此次隨北美華人作家江南采風團,相約螃蟹節,邂逅固城湖。其時,吾正在井岡山學習,以增鈣質,堅強鬥志。同行中有紀念館同事、展覽部主任鄢氏,名增華,言回寧後欲赴高淳一行,接中明夫婦到抗日航空烈士紀念館,其捐贈的日本軍刀正在館內展出,欲去觀瞻,以慰平生。吾聞之大喜,蓋因沈家蟹塘塘主、青年實業家沈廣龍兄,半月前邀我參加接待美國作家高淳采風團,並附有來華作者名單,共一十三人,當時視之良久,亦無熟悉之人。沒曾想,熟人就在采風團裡,真是踏破鐵鞋無覓處,得來全不費工夫。余於是謂鄢曰,不必舟車勞頓,吾本欲會之,活動結束就陪同回甯,鄢氏亦喜,將中明夫婦聯繫方式告知。
自井岡山回寧翌日,天濛濛亮,餘急不可待,一路風馳電掣,正點趕至下榻之地花澗堂,作家們正在辦退房,拿行李登車。余見一對夫婦攜手而出,丈夫溫文爾雅,風度翩翩,妻子小鳥依人,外秀慧中。憑直覺,這對伉儷就是所找之人,於是疾步趨前,問曰,汝乃林教授乎?對方答,是。順利接頭,開始噓寒問暖。其實三年之前,本有機會相識。那時余在文物部門,林中明教授與其兄林中斌合議,欲將其父林文奎將軍接受日軍代表臺灣受降時所贈軍刀兩把,轉贈給孫中山紀念館,吾因忙於向國家文物局彙報美齡宮申報全國十佳文物保護工程事項,遂請同事菊萍代勞,與對方接洽,待美齡宮申報成功,捐贈軍刀一事亦已完成,此乃乙未年中山陵兩大幸事。然未能親晤林氏兄弟,略顯遺憾。
有緣人終會相聚,只是沒曾想這麼快,既是巧合,更相信是天意。余謂中明夫婦,特意授局長所托,來接二位嘉賓,林教授言活動結束,皆由我定,悉聽安排。團長呂紅女士恰坐旁邊,靜心聆聽吾等交流,甚是嚮往中山陵之雄,明孝陵之偉,美齡宮之秀,於是邀其一同前往。高淳采風期間,同遊漆橋老街,共抓沈家螃蟹,體會漫城生活,一路上相談甚歡,其樂融融,雖素未謀面,但神交已久。
林教授主攻晶片,系理工男,但文學造詣很深,尤其通《文心雕龍》。亦是因單位曾組織《文心雕龍》研討會,菊萍始與林教授結緣。林教授夫人黃雅純,筆名玄黃,亦是北美著名作家,贈一本《南寧舊事》,甘之如飴。十年來,紀念館與林教授夫婦緣份越結越深,曾舉辦《林文奎先生生平史跡展》,並計畫出版《林文奎傳》。
團隊活動結束,余攜呂紅團長、中明夫婦,同到掛職的固城鎮振興村。察看中山陵幫扶項目核桃林,南京曉莊學院幫扶項目竹林種植大球蓋菇。在村委座談時,桌上正有一份《高淳扶貧簡報》,內有介紹吾之專題。林教授饒有興趣,與村支書交流時,談及吾在振興村之幫扶活動眾多,頗多感動,蓋因所幫扶事項,多系自身人脈所為,發動自家親友捐款。吾笑言,若教授想幫扶,吾亦有一好項目,可以教授之名,在固城中心小學設立獎學金,資金不必在多,有份愛心即行。林教授沒有半分猶豫,立即表態,與眾親友一視同仁,盡點綿薄之力,幫扶貧困兒童。計畫投三千美金,在固城中心小學設立林中明獎學金。余當即電話小學校長荀愛花,想當面一見,詳談獎學金發放之事。荀校長隆重邀請,於是簡單午餐後,趨車至固城小學,荀校長亦是有教育情懷之人,堪稱女中英傑,自漆橋小學調入後,大刀闊斧,深化改革,以信立校,以德育人,以文養情。呂團長、林教授夫婦參觀之後,對荀校長辦學理念大加讚賞,林教授當即開具支票,一切後續事宜托餘辦理。

林中明獎學金之設,將北美華人作家高淳采風活動推向高潮,亦將余高淳掛職鍛煉畫一圓滿句號。感恩林中明先生、黃雅純夫婦之家國情懷,故為之記。
聞慧斌
一八年十一月六日晨于高淳

以信立校
北美牡丹詩會。林中明會長。讚 高淳四寶之一的 白牡丹
小學生上體操課中

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Ranakpur Jain Temple and our hotel

accessed April 8, 2019

The most famous Temple of Jainism, which lies in the Aravalli hills. Dating between 14-15th century, the ornate temple is supported by 1,444 carved marble pillars none of which is similar to another.

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民主是最好的制度嗎?

accessed April 8, 2019

●2014318, 林中斌,"民主病了!" 聯合報 A15
●2014
124,布萊爾(前英國首相)Tony Blair, "民主已死?Is Democracy Dead?" 紐約時報 New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/…/…/tony-blair-is-democracy-dead.html)
●2015
年朝日新聞出版日文《民主是最好的制度嗎?》
●20186月台灣暖暖書屋文化事業股份有限公司出版郭書妤翻譯《民主是最好的制度嗎?》

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"如是我聞"摘錄

accessed Feb 18, 2019

"...又如敵人,我們習慣以為是外在的,而沒想到是來自內心的嗔恨,所以當有人說摧毀敵人多困難,這是由於不能瞭解敵我是由嗔恨心相對而生的;..."
(宗薩蔣揚欽哲仁波切 1988.10.17-25訪問,如是我聞,頁236)
他是"高山上足球賽"電影的導演
林中斌摘錄 2019.1.29

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The Optimist 樂觀者

accessed Feb 18, 2019

Cicely Tyson Actor(actress) 94
瑟絲麗泰森演員(也是模特兒,歌星 導演 得奧斯卡 金球獎 無數) 今日年齡 94 (此為近照)
Time February 18, 2019 pp.84&85

時代雜誌 2019.2.18 84-85

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“Hear the notes. See the notes. Be the notes.”

Corina Da Fonseca-Wollheim, New York Times January 19, 2019

Accessed Jan 21 , 2019

-- 結合古典音樂和靜坐開闢新的天地。
-- 普林斯頓大學宗教生活院地院長 Matthew Weiner 說:"佛教提倡的靜坐並不是指舌頭不動的安靜,而是淡化內心的活動,以除去阻礙我們如實的活在當下。"

 

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For as long as I can remember, I have loved the silences of the concert hall almost as much as the sounds. The expectant hush that falls on an auditorium when the oboe’s A pierces through the hum of voices and the lights dim. The way a spellbound audience can wrap a protective silence around a pianissimo ending. But on a recent afternoon in Richardson Auditorium at Princeton University here, silence became an equal partner to the music. I was in the hall for a series called Live Music Meditation. (The next event, on March 28, features the violinist Patricia Kopatchinskaja.) For the first 20 minutes, while listeners quietly filed in, I sat motionless with my eyes closed, noting the sounds of footsteps and the rustle of coats. Gradually, the calm deepened, broken now and then by a male voice inviting us to focus on our breath, relax our shoulders and clear our minds. From inside this stillness, the sound of a gong rang out like a bright explosion, followed by waves of amber overtones that seemed to dance with each other in space. Then more silence, long minutes of nothing to hear but the breathing of strangers. When the first notes of a clarinet threaded their way into my consciousness, they seemed to come from inside me. For the next half-hour, as a piano joined the clarinet, music wound its way through me as sound turned pure sensation. Eventually the last note settled back into silence. Then one more time the gong, followed by that male voice, sounding a little sheepish: “Some people would find it appropriate to clap now.” The applause, when it came, did seem out of place. And the performers, the clarinetist Martin Frost and the pianist Henrik Mawe, didn’t bow. In an onstage discussion after the unusual concert, they professed to being somewhat overwhelmed. “We were so aware of you listening to us so intensely that we started to listen to ourselves even more intensely, too,” Mr. Mawe said. An audience member told the musicians that, for him, “the most special thing was the silence before and after you played. There was anticipation without expectation.” The series, which is free to the public, was conceived by Dasha Koltunyuk, a pianist and a longtime member of a meditation group led by Matthew Weiner, a dean in the office of religious life at the university. By combining guided meditation with live music, she hoped to create a space in which, she said in a statement, “our tendency toward passivity or judgment while hearing music disperses into a pure, perceptive and receptive state of intense, present listening.” Composers have long played with silence. In the 20th century, they began to dissolve the border between scripted silence inside the music — the rests — and the ambient silence of a given acoustic space. Ligeti’s “Lux Aeterna” fades into seven bars of rest at the end. John Cage’s “4’33”” consists entirely of notated silence. These days, more presenters are experimenting with ways to make the audience aware of its role in creating the silence out of which music grows. When the artist Marina Abramovic presented the pianist Igor Levit in Bach’s “Goldberg” Variations at the Park Avenue Armory in 2015, listeners were relieved of their cellphones and outfitted with noise-dampening headphones that helped them sink into deep quiet for 30 minutes before the first notes of Bach. Concerts inside the Moab Music Festival’s red rock grotto in Utah begin with an invitation to take in the stillness of the natural setting. A twominute “celebration of silence” is at the center of Chatter in Albuquerque, N.M., and Gather NYC at SubCulture in Manhattan, both Sunday morning series combining classical music and storytelling. In a telephone interview, the violinist and conductor David Felberg, who runs Chatter, said that most audience members close their eyes for that period. “They’re either meditating or trying to listen to the sounds that exist naturally around them,” he said. “For us, it’s a bit of a palate cleanser. It’s almost like you’re fresh and ready to listen to the music.” Mr. Weiner, the Princeton dean, who led the guided meditation, said in an interview that he thinks of the quality created in the room not so much as silence but as sensitivity. In Buddhism, he said, that “doesn’t just mean verbal silence with your tongue. It means softening the constructions in your mind that get in the way of experiencing what’s in front of you.” As a critic normally tasked with shaping those constructions into written words, I was keenly aware of that softening. And as a diligent but novice meditator, I caught a glimpse, through the music, of what it means to let thoughts bubble up without engaging with them — through applause or judgment. Here was music not as a text to be read nor a recreational drug to be consumed for mood management, but as an audible process of coming into being and fading away. And, for a short while, listening turned into a state of pure receptivity: beginner’s ear.

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"While China rose, a distracted America atrophied."

 Accessed Dec 24 , 2018

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"俄羅斯宣布2019年起大學聯考要考中文"

https://chinaqna.com/a/49601?fbclid=IwAR3VTCVnkuJuunwDi9v8rgFtA2ngBZsUO2EBR-LikeWWwkNtSGWiYF_ieCQ

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

 

-- 聽說普丁決定與中國長期合作。因為其內部研究結論是對抗不符合俄羅斯長遠的利益。

-- 貝加爾湖淡水前幾年已公佈提供給中國。可灌溉黃土高原,減輕穀類種植缺水的問題。

-- 中俄在低調商討莫斯科歸還滿清被帝俄所佔領的領土。因此唐努烏梁海是否為中國領土目前高度敏感。中國法院回答人民:此屬國家機密無法回答。

敬請賜正

林中斌 2018.12.2

 

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"Trump Considers Firing Air Force Chief Over Space Force Pushback"/

"What are your thoughts on US president Donald Trump's proposed Space Force"

Foreign Policy October 04, 2018

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/04/trump-considers-ousting-air-force-head-over-space-force-pushback/

accessed October 22, 2018

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●對川普總統建立太空軍之政策,美國國會兩黨議員反映由質疑到觀望。

●共和黨Neb.參議員Deb Fisher"我想從國防部直接聽到他們如何建立太空軍的計畫,以及從哪裡找得到太空部的人員。"(尚未得到)

●共和黨Texax參議員John Cornyn"傳統上,太空任務是空軍負責。至今我尚未聽到令我信服的說法解釋為何我們要成立另一軍種。"

2018.08.27 Defcense News 

"What are your thoughts on US president Donald Trump's proposed Space Force"


 

20180827 What are your thoughts on US president Donald Trump%5Cs proposed Space Force.jpg

林中斌 試摘譯 敬請賜教 2018.10.22

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光彩金山  

Golden City Shine

accessed Sep 10, 2018

http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/7956925

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北京專權 窒息創新 前景看衰?

accessed June 1, 2018

名人堂的耕耘

 

花了兩天看資料,手寫9頁筆記,埋首筆電三天斟酌1,100字,於61日交稿,62日交修正稿,65日刊出。

卅多年前國外念博士時,教授說到「八十/二十」的原則。收尋到有關資料中,可用到寫出來的只有20%。其他80%無法在文字中呈現,但有助研究者了解大圖像,存入背景資料庫。

如今更覺自己不足,「八十/二十」的原則演化成「九十五/零五」的原則。

 

敬請賜教

林中斌 2018.6.5

 

北京專權 窒息創新 前景看衰?

林中斌

名人堂稿件

日期:20180601 本文字數: 1100 目標字數:1100

 

四月,美國總統川普制裁「中興通訊」。斷料、停工,在一月中它損失三億多美金,此錢可買三架先進蘇-35 戰機。

世界第二大經濟體中國,竟然不堪一擊原因顯然是:缺乏創新。

連帶論述是:北京限制自由,封閉資訊,窒息創新,抄襲甚至偷竊先進技術。無怪乎,中國成長已減緩,資金外逃,國債高築,前景看衰。

實際清況呢?

今年四月,中國科學家潘健偉被《時代》雜誌選入一八年世界百大人物,因為他領軍研發量子通訊在一六年「墨子號」衛星升空後已取得全球領先地位。而量子通訊可保密,有潛力打破美國以互聯網主導全球通訊的優勢。

根據去年十一月十六日Defense News報導,Google 母公司Alphabet總裁也是五角大廈「國防創新委員會」主席Eric Schmidt說:「到二廿年,中國將趕上美國。廿五年,他們將超越我們。卅年,他們將主宰AI。」

同月,每年兩次的「全球超級電腦五百強」TOP500比賽發佈排名。中國的「太湖之光」連續兩年四次居榜首,「天河二號」為亞軍,瑞士第三,日本第四,美國Titan第五。Titan速度僅為「太湖之光」的五分之一,曾攬冠軍多年直至一三年六月被「天河」取代。之後,「天河」連續六次盤居霸位。但它晶片購自美國英特爾,一五年受美國以國安理由鉗制。於是逼迫中國造出核心及晶片皆自製的「太湖之光」,一鳴驚人雄佔鰲頭。回顧八年時,中國尚無法擠入前一百名。九年來進步,何人料到?

「中興通訊」當年急於攻佔市場,懶於研發晶片。如今遭此挫敗,焉知非福?

其實,類似制裁「中興通訊」對中國經濟衝擊已不如前。中國七年對美國出口占中國那年GDP高達九點一趴;而一七年只占三點九趴,下降至約四成。十年以來,向美出口對中國經濟成長的重要性已大幅減低。

去年七月, IMF三度向上修改中國GDP 成長至六點七趴。根據的是:一六年起出口增加、人民幣強勢、股票市場上揚、外匯存底回升至三兆美元以上。今年一月北京公佈一七年GDP 成長為六點九趴,更勝於IMF預估,為七年來首度回升。

根據今年四月廿一日Economist分析,中國經濟比一五年大為改善,因為政府已開始正面迎戰根深蒂固的結構問題。於是,國債佔GDP的比率已穩定。資金外逃已受嚴控。人民收入成長已高於GDP成長。國家經濟漸趨成熟,服務業從廿年前佔GDP三成上升至一半。大投資項目如高速鐵路已開始賺錢。地方債務幾乎都花在橋梁、公路等基本建設而非空屋住宅。

今年三月廿八日《紐約時報》登載歐巴馬總統財政部顧問Steve Rattner評論:「過去四年,中國減少了三十二趴某種空汙微粒。同樣的成就,美國在一九七年通過Clean Air Act法案之後花費十二年才做到。北京治理模式在最短時間內把最多的人民拔離貧窮。人類歷史從未得有。」

「歐亞集團」總裁Ian Bremmer在去年十一月十三日《時代》雜誌發表專文「北京國家主導經濟體未來將勝出」說:「中國,非美國,是全球經濟最強的角色」。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長

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林中斌/報導者訪問

accessed May 17, 2016

剛翻出兩年前的訪問。

"...兩岸穩定的關鍵又繫於蔡英文的執政和治理能力。

若蔡英文的執政治理能力強,...民調維持高支持度,那麼內部深綠對蔡中間路線的反對和不安就不會輕易傾瀉而出...否則蔡將重蹈覆轍走上阿扁之路。"

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北京對台施壓極大化至何時?

June 8, 2018

 

●目前北京對台擴大操之在他的惠台措施,同時持續多做少說的心理施壓極大化。

●北京十九大後強化軟硬兩手策略,而不擔心失去台灣民心比爭取台灣民心更多。為何?

●北京考量是:希望在今年年底台灣縣市長選舉產生他樂見的效果,促使執政黨調整目前的兩岸政策。

●北京根據是:台灣民意對統獨、族群認同、跨海工作求學意願、對習近平好感度等已表現出有利北京的趨勢變化。變化夠多嗎?尚未。但其反轉數十年來趨勢的走向已浮出。

●北京的資料來自台灣公開的民調、北京暗中委託台灣機構所做的台灣民調、也可能包括廈門大學台研院以閩南語所做的民調。

●但是,年底選舉結果不見得對執政黨產生強達臨界點的衝擊。雖然執政者支持度下滑,但執政黨的對手仍然不夠強。

●另一項促使執政黨調整兩岸政策的可能是年底選舉前美、日對台支持發生足夠的、或關鍵性的變化。這項可能,在長遠的未來不能排除,但目前仍看不出來。

●無論如何,北京在年底台灣選舉後應會整體評估目前對台全面施壓的戰術。

●換言之,北京對台持續心理施壓極大化至少持續到年底選舉。

以上淺見,敬請賜教

林中斌 2018.6.8

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Katie Hunt, “China's ramping up pressure on Taiwan”

CNN May 29, 2018

 

●這報導中所引用在下淺見是根據昨天早上CNN記者電話的訪問。

●記者問的很詳細,寫的很謹慎。沒有加油添醬,沒有斷章取義。

●中斌回國廿三年,幾乎已忘卻之前在國外所習慣的記者訪問風格。

敬請賜教

林中斌 2018.5.29

Chong-Pin Lin, a former deputy defense minister in Taiwan, said he believes reunification is still a long-term goal for Xi. For now, he says, Beijing is focused on deterring Taiwan from making a declaration of independence -- something that would be a huge embarrassment for Xi.

"Beijing is skillful at applying psychological pressure on Taiwan," he says.

 

Although Tsai has been "very prudent" since being elected in 2016 and tried to restrain the more radical wing of her party, says Lin, Beijing may feel that she will look to appeal to her base as mid-term elections near.

 

However, in Taiwan, some analysts fear that an erratic and unpredictable President Trump may use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions in his dealings with China on North Korea or trade.

"Taiwan-US relations are pretty good right now, but we don't know what the future holds," said Lin.

 

CNN專文 中國升高對台灣施壓

中央廣播電台

黃啟霖

2018529 下午5:47

美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)今天(29)以「中國升高對台施壓(China's ramping up pressure on Taiwan)」為題,大篇幅報導北京正意圖加速孤立台灣,在過去一個月中,讓台灣數量已不多的邦交國再少掉兩國。

 

報導指出,台灣不僅在外交上受到中國打壓,跨國公司要如何稱呼台灣也承受中國的壓力。此外,中國軍方在台灣海峽大秀肌肉的情形也日漸普遍。

 

報導指出,中國和擁有民主制度、自己治理的台灣之間升高緊張,為華府在處理與北京關係時,增加了另一項隱憂,因為美國總統川普(Donald Trump)的政府已和中國在貿易、北韓以及南海問題上意見不合。

 

CNN指出,華府則對台灣表達更密切的支持,並將在6月間,美國事實上的駐台大使館落成之際,高調展現與台灣站在一起。

 

美國的新大使館是原來使館的3倍大。

 

◎中國如何持續對台施壓

 

多年來,北京一步步的縮減台灣有限的外交盟邦,但在一個月內先後挖走多明尼加共和國和布吉納法索,仍然是前所未見。

 

台灣指控北京施展「金錢外交」,也就是以金錢誘使友邦改投中國懷抱的策略。對越來越富裕、口袋越來越深的中國而言,此種戰略變得更為容易。

 

中國民用航空局最近警告44家外國航空公司,要在30日內將官網上的台灣標示列為中國領土。凡是未配合變更的公司,都受到北京的注意。但美國在55日直言批評,中國此舉為「歐威爾式的胡言亂語」(Orwellian nonsense)

 

不僅如此,日本知名連鎖零售商無印良品(Muji)在上海的分店,就因為把產品的產地標示為台灣,而遭到中國罰款。

 

此外,報導還指出,中國也連續第二年不讓台灣參加世界衛生組織(WHO)的年會,即使以觀察員資格出席都不允許,使得台灣2,300萬人被排除在全球防疫體系之外,無法取得有助於全球疾病疫情的相關訊息。

 

◎中國的目的

 

CNN指出,中國和台灣儘管有共同的文化,並同樣以中文為官方語言,但從1949年至今雙方一直處於分治狀態。

 

把台灣拉回中國,是過去70年來,中國統治者無法達成的夢想,如果習近平能夠做到,將成為他的巨大成就,而習近平現在有可能終身統治。

 

CNN引述台灣前國防部副部長林中斌表示,他相信,統一依然是習近平的長期目標;而現在,北京的注意力集中在嚇阻台灣不要宣布獨立,否則將令習近平非常難堪。

 

林中斌表示,北京很擅於對台灣施加心理壓力。

 

CNN指出,現任總統蔡英文所屬的民進黨,傳統上傾向支持正式獨立。而儘管蔡英文在2016年當選總統後一直非常謹慎,極力限制民進黨內的激進派系,但林中斌表示,北京或許覺得,蔡英文只是為了今年的期中選舉考慮。

 

不過,北京不是只有棒子,也有胡蘿蔔。今年2月,北京發布31項對台措施,讓台灣人更方便到中國大陸工作、做生意和讀書,其中包括老師和醫生。

 

◎美國的角色

 

CNN指出,台灣與美國的關係儘管屬非官方性質,但雙方關係顯然穩固。美國依據台灣關係法提供防衛武器。

 

美國國會不理會來自中國的壓力,通過台灣旅行法,並在3月間由川普簽署成為法律。這項法律的目的,在讓美國官員更方便訪台,也方便台灣官員訪問美國。

 

此外,共和黨聯邦參議員賈德納(Cory Gardner),以及和民主黨聯邦參議員馬基(Edward Markey),在25日共同提出跨黨派的「2018台灣國際參與法案」(TIPA),以確保台灣在國際舞台的空間,不會遭到進一步限縮。

 

這兩位參議員說:「這項跨黨派法案將協助確保主要國際組織,不會因為中國施展霸凌手段,就對我們的盟友台灣視而不見。」

 

不過,台灣部份分析家擔心,川普不穩定又難以預測,可能會利用台灣,作為與中國處理北韓和貿易問題時,迫使中國讓步的籌碼。

 

林中斌表示:「台美關係目前相當好,但我們不知道未來的情況會如何。」

 

China's ramping up pressure on Taiwan

 

Hong Kong (CNN) - Beijing's push to isolate Taiwan is gathering pace, with two of the island's few remaining allies switching allegiance to China in the past month.

Taiwan isn't just taking heat from China diplomatically. Multi-national companies are being pressured over how they describe Taiwan, with Beijing insisting they follow its line that the island is an integral part of China. Shows of force by the Chinese military in the Taiwan Strait, the narrow strip of water that divides the two, are also becoming more commonplace.

This ratcheting up of tensions between China and the self-governed, democratic island opens up another fault line for Washington in its dealings with Beijing, with the Trump administration already at odds with China over trade, North Korea and the South China Sea.

Washington has signaled closer support for Taiwan and a high-profile demonstration of solidarity comes in June when the United States opens a new complex to house its de facto embassy in Taipei that's three times the size of the original building.

Here's what you need to know about the potential flashpoint.

 

How has China been piling on the pressure?

 

While Beijing has been chipping away at Taiwan's shallow bench of diplomatic allies for years, the loss of two -- Burkina Faso and the Dominican Republic -- in the space of a month is unprecedented.

Taiwan accuses Beijing of "dollar diplomacy," enticing countries to switch allegiance with cash or other incentives -- a strategy that's become easier as China's grown richer and its pockets deeper.

Beijing has also focused its attention on companies that don't toe its line on Taiwan. Some 44 airlines were recently warned not to list Taiwan separately from China on their websites and given a deadline to comply, a move the US government has described on May 5 as "Orwellian nonsense."

Most recently, Japanese retailer Muji has been fined for coat-hanger packaging that described Taiwan as a country.

China has also prevented Taiwan from attending, even as an observer, the annual meeting of the World Health Organization's decision making body for two consecutive years, a move that excludes the island's 23 million people from information that helps prevent outbreak of global diseases.

No target is too small. In the small Australian town of Rockhampton, tiny fish-shaped Taiwan flags featured on a children's art project displayed in public were painted over, reportedly at the behest of Beijing.

 

What's China's goal?

 

China and Taiwan -- officially the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China, respectively -- separated in 1949 following the Communist victory in a civil war that saw the Nationalists flee to the island.

The two sides have been governed separately since, though a shared cultural and linguistic heritage mostly endures -- with Mandarin spoken as the official language in both places.

Bringing Taiwan back to the fold has eluded China's Communist leaders for nearly seven decades and would be a huge achievement for President Xi Jinping, who now has the option to rule for life.

Chong-Pin Lin, a former deputy defense minister in Taiwan, said he believes reunification is still a long-term goal for Xi. For now, he says, Beijing is focused on deterring Taiwan from making a declaration of independence -- something that would be a huge embarrassment for Xi.

"Beijing is skillful at applying psychological pressure on Taiwan," he says.

President Tsai Ing-wen's Democratic Progressive Party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China, compared to Taiwan's other main political party, the Kuomintang, as the Nationalists are known locally.

Although Tsai has been "very prudent" since being elected in 2016 and tried to restrain the more radical wing of her party, says Lin, Beijing may feel that she will look to appeal to her base as mid-term elections near.

However, it's not just about the stick for Beijing. China has also been encouraging integration. In February, China's Taiwan Affairs Officer revealed 31 new measures to promote exchange and cooperate with Taipei, many of which make it easier for those from Taiwan to work, do business and study in mainland China, including teachers and doctors.

 

How does the US fit in?

 

Despite their unofficial nature, Taiwan's ties with the US, which provides arms to the island under the Taiwan Relations Act, appear strong.

Defying strong pressure from China, Congress passed the Taiwan Travel Act, which US President Donald Trump signed into law in March, by unanimous vote in both houses. It aims to make it easier for US officials to visit the island and Taiwan officials to visit the US.

Another bi-partisan bill aimed at ensuring Taiwan's space in the world stage isn't diminished further was launched on Friday by Republican Sen. Core Gardner and Democratic Sen. Edward Markey.

"This bipartisan legislation will help ensure that major international organizations do not turn a blind eye to our ally Taiwan simply because of China's bullying tactics," the senators said.

And when the Trump administration opens the new American Institute in Taiwan, as the unofficial embassy is called, on June 12, it's possible that high-ranking members of the Trump administration will attend.

However, in Taiwan, some analysts fear that an erratic and unpredictable President Trump may use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions in his dealings with China on North Korea or trade.

"Taiwan-US relations are pretty good right now, but we don't know what the future holds," said Lin.

 

What's Taiwan doing about it?

 

Taiwan has long been used to operating in China's shadow.

In 1971, the Republic of China was forced to withdraw from the United Nations after a motion was passed recognizing the People's Republic as the only lawful representative of China to the UN. Many other countries followed suit, including the United States, which switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing 1979 but has maintained unofficial ties with Taipei.

Its unofficial relationships, especially with the United States, ultimately carry greater weight than its smaller, formal allies. Taiwan has representative offices, which act as de facto embassies, in more than 100 cities and a passport issued in Taiwan allows visa-free access to 148 countries, compared to 70 for China.

Many people in Taiwan barely bat an eyelid when a diplomatic ally is lost -- seeing the money the government spends on maintaining and cultivating these small countries as a waste.

What will be key is if Beijing's pressure has an impact on the island's more powerful allies, like the US, EU or Japan or on the companies that do business there.

As Beijing has ramped up pressure, Taiwan's government has been more vocal in calling out Beijing's tactics.

It has publicly criticized some companies who have bowed to Beijing's pressure. And Tsai warned of a red line in a statement issued last week in the wake of Burkina Faso's decision to ditch Taiwan.

"China's efforts to undermine our national sovereignty are already challenging Taiwan society's bottom line. This we will no longer tolerate," said President Tsai.

"We will simply redouble our resolve and continue to engage with the world."

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Rob Schmitz, “Taiwan Loses 2 More Allies To China And Scrambles Jets To Track Chinese Bomber Drills”

National Public Radio May 25, 2018

 

"War of paralysis"

 

But Taiwan's former deputy defense minister, Chong-pin Lin, disagrees that China would launch such an aggressive military attack of Taiwan. "If Beijing really wants to use military options, it would be a war of paralysis," says Lin.

 

Taiwan Loses 2 More Allies To China And Scrambles Jets To Track Chinese Bomber Drills

It's not easy being in charge of foreign relations of a country most of the world refuses to recognize.

 

Taiwan lost another ally on Thursday. The West African country Burkina Faso became the latest country to cut ties with the island. After the Dominican Republic, that's two in less than one month. And like other countries, including the United States, that for decades have broken diplomatic relations with Taiwan, they did so for one reason: to please China.

 

The Chinese government refuses to maintain diplomatic relations with any nation that recognizes Taiwan and has long pressured countries to sever ties with the island.

 

For Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, it's hard not to feel cornered.

 

"When we look at the rest of the world, every other country has the right to enter into diplomatic relations with other countries," Wu says in an NPR interview. "They have every right to participate in international activities or international organizations. But Taiwan is in a situation that it is being blocked by China to do all those things."

 

Despite the fact that Taiwan has its own democratically elected government, its own military and its own flag, the Chinese government regards the island as a renegade province that belongs to China. Today, fewer than 20 countries have formal ties with the island, down from about 30 in the 1990s.

 

Yet while China has long used diplomatic and commercial might to isolate Taiwan, it has also recently displayed its military strategy. Last month, China conducted a live-fire drill in the Taiwan Strait for the first time in two years. That was soon followed by bombers, surveillance aircraft and fighter jets from China's air force that have been circling Taiwan on a semiregular basis in recent weeks.

 

China's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang was quoted by the Global Times tabloid as saying the purpose of the drills was "to reaffirm that we have strong determination, confidence and capability to destroy any type of 'Taiwan independence' scheme in order to safeguard the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

 

But military experts offer different takes on what it may mean: Some view the drills as routine exercises, but others say this could be a glimpse of future plans for invasion.

 

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was angered by China's latest moves, including its poaching of Burkina Faso, one of Taiwan's last allies in Africa and the fourth country to ditch Taiwan since the president took office in 2016.

 

"The series of outrageous maneuvers from China intended to diminish Taiwan's sovereignty has crossed a red line for Taiwanese society," Tsai told reporters.

 

On Friday, Taiwan's Defense Ministry said it dispatched fighter jets to shadow Chinese bombers carrying out a drill around Taiwan.

 

If nonviolent means don't work

 

Capt. James Fanell, a former deputy intelligence head for the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet, says none of Beijing's military displays surprise him.

 

"The things that I was seeing in the classified world and the things that I saw in my job all indicated that timelines had been given to the People's Liberation Army to be prepared to have the capacity to take Taiwan by military force if need be starting in 2020," says Fanell.

 

Beijing's goal is to ensure that Taiwan is unified with China by 2049, the centennial of what the Communist Party calls its liberation of China, Fanell says.

 

"They prefer not to use force," he says, "but they've also planned to use force and they bought and purchased and developed military capability to use just in case the nonviolent means doesn't work."

 

Fanell, who is now a fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, believes China will try to take Taiwan peacefully over the next decade, using economic incentives and pressure. If that doesn't work, he believes a military invasion is likely by 2030.

 

"If you can mentally take pictures of what we've seen in Syria in recent weeks, with towns destroyed by missile strikes, think about that in a place like Taipei," Fanell says of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan's capital city.

 

"War of paralysis"

 

But Taiwan's former deputy defense minister, Chong-pin Lin, disagrees that China would launch such an aggressive military attack of Taiwan. "If Beijing really wants to use military options, it would be a war of paralysis," says Lin.

 

If it attacks Taiwan at all, Lin predicts Beijing would more likely use electromagnetic pulse weaponry — much of it currently believed to be in a prototype stage in China — that emits bursts that disrupt computers, Internet signals and radio communications.

 

Yet Lin questions the need for Beijing to take Taiwan in this manner. China's leaders would prefer to use diplomacy, psychological warfare and economic influence to gradually unify Taiwan with mainland China, he says.

 

In a speech in March, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said it is the "shared aspiration of all Chinese people" to realize China's complete reunification, threatening those who tried to stand in the way with the "punishment of history."

 

But it was what happened right before this speech — the elimination of presidential term limits for Xi — that gives Taiwanese Foreign Minister Wu a clue that invading Taiwan may not be high on the leader's agenda. "What we see is that Xi Jinping seems to be accumulating more and more power for himself," Wu observes, "and it reflects just one thing: that is that he doesn't have enough sense of security."

 

Economic pressure

 

Wu thinks Xi's power grab shows a leader who is not confident with his control over China's own problems — issues that will distract him from Taiwan. But Wen-Cheng Lin, a former senior adviser to Taiwan's National Security Council, says China is using other ways to pressure Taiwan. "China wants to drain Taiwan's finances and talent," he says. "Taiwanese companies are allowed to be listed in the mainland. Young Taiwanese talent is encouraged and incentivized to work in the mainland."

 

And China's government has put restrictions on mainland tourists going to Taiwan to put the squeeze on the island, too.

 

At Taipei's popular Palace Museum, a tour guide who only gives her surname, Lai, for fear of retribution for criticizing her government, says Taiwan's tourism industry has tanked since China began putting economic pressure on the island.

 

"Our government has been asking us to learn Thai and Vietnamese to cater to Southeast Asian tourists instead, but these tourists can't boost our economy."

 

Nobody, says Lai, can impact Taiwan's economy like China can.

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名作家期勉哈佛生

accessed June 6, 2018

成名的作家阿迪契說:"承認自己是以憤怒來掩飾內心受傷,不是一件容易的事。"

20180606 名作家期勉哈佛生:保持誠實.jpg

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Ruchir Sharma, “The Millionaires Are Fleeing”

New York Times June 3, 2018

*2017年,12%百萬富翁離開土耳其,16%離開委內瑞拉,2%離開印度,2%離開俄羅斯。3,000(以前吸引百萬富翁)離開英國。4,000(201612,000離開,更多)離開法國。

*0.2%百萬富翁,9,000移民美國。川普效應?

 

The Millionaires Are Fleeing. Maybe You Should, Too.

 

Tracking the rich has become a voyeuristic global industry, a form of celebrity worship. But it can also provide serious clues about where countries are headed.

 

When a country begins to fall into economic and political difficulty, wealthy people are often the first to ship their money to safer havens abroad. The rich don’t always emigrate along with their money, but when they do, it is an even more telling sign of trouble.

 

Since 2013, New World Wealth, a research outfit based in South Africa, has been tracking millionaire migrations by culling property records, visa programs, news media reports and information from travel agents and others who cater to the wealthy. In a global population of 15 million people each worth more than $1 million in net assets, nearly 100,000 changed their country of residence last year.

 

In most countries it is fair to assume that any millionaire exodus is composed mainly of locals, and not foreign investors, because the wealthy classes will be dominated by citizens or longtime residents. In 2017, the largest exoduses came out of Turkey (where a stunning 12 percent of the millionaire population emigrated) and Venezuela. As if on cue, the Turkish lira is now in a free fall. There were also significant migrations out of India under the tightening grip of its overzealous tax authorities, and from Britain under the cloud of Brexit.

 

On the flip side, slowing outflows can be a welcome sign, and in 2017 the biggest shift for the better came in that caldron of anti-rich hostility, France.

 

Equally surprising was the lack of change in the United States, where the arrival of a billionaire president did not seem to attract or repel millionaires. A net total of 9,000 millionaires migrated to the United States last year, but they represent a drop in the ocean of five million American millionaires.

 

Just like the less wealthy, millionaires seemed unsure of America’s direction under an unpredictable president who offers tax cuts and deregulation for the rich, but also bashes foreigners and occasionally talks like a pitchfork-waving populist.

 

Britain and France appeared to be trading places as magnets for wealth. For decades the rich had been drawn to Britain by circumspect banks, loose regulations and the comforts of London. Until 2016, Britain had a sizable influx of millionaires every year, but the flow suddenly reversed last year with a net exodus of 3,000, amid fears that as Britain exits the European Union, London will fade as a financial capital. It did not help that in 2017 the government raised taxes on foreigners who buy property.

 

France had long been seen as the anti-Britain, a left-leaning bastion of prying bureaucrats and high taxes that scared off the wealthy, despite the charms of Paris. But the growing exodus of millionaires peaked in 2016 with a net outflow of 12,000, then slowed sharply to just 4,000 last year. The most likely reason: the May election of Emmanuel Macron, the youngest president in French history, who promised a lighter-touch bureaucracy less hostile to business and lowered wealth and capital gains taxes.

 

Granted, displaced millionaires get little if any sympathy, but no country gains by losing the talent and capital of its wealthiest residents, particularly not emerging countries like India. Stunningly, India in 2017 suffered a net loss of 7,000 members, or 2 percent, of its millionaire population. That exodus came despite global optimism about India’s growth prospects and matched the flight from the stagnant and sanction-battered economy of Russia, which also lost 2 percent of its millionaire population.

 

This unusual flight from India’s high-growth economy may be driven by the elite’s growing concerns about an official anticorruption drive and “tax terrorism” — unlimited authority given to tax officials to target the rich. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the government has lately begun catering to the nation’s deep socialist streak, wielding state power to flush out and tax hidden pockets of wealth.

 

In the worst cases, bouts of capital flight can gain momentum until the value of the currency collapses, plunging the nation into crisis. Balance of payments records show that 10 of the last 12 major currency crises, dating back to the Mexican peso meltdown of 1994, began when residents started sending money abroad, which was typically two years before the currency collapsed. Often politicians blamed “evil” and “immoral” foreign speculators for these crises, but it was the locals who first saw trouble coming.

 

Right now, this forensic accounting offers clear evidence of looming financial difficulty in only one major country: Turkey. Starting early last year, affluent Turks began effectively moving large sums of money out of the country by exchanging their lira bank deposits for dollars and euros, while foreigners continued to buy Turkish assets.

 

The 12 percent decline in Turkey’s millionaire population last year was by far the largest of any major economy, and second only to the 16 percent decline in Venezuela, with its small, hyperinflationary economy. Turkey’s millionaires appear to be fleeing both deteriorating financial conditions marked by very high inflation, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on his critics, including those in business.

 

Millionaire migrations can be a positive sign for a nation’s economy. The losses for India, Russia and Turkey were gains for havens like Canada and Australia, joined lately by the United Arab Emirates. Owing largely to the stability and glitter of the most famous emirate, Dubai, the United Arab Emirates in 2017 had a net inflow of 5,000 millionaires, increasing the size of its affluent population by 6 percent, the largest gain in the world. Britain was among the millionaire havens until 2016, but may continue losing ground until it can resolve the uncertainties raised by Brexit.

 

Savvy locals are also the first to return when a country’s fortunes begin to turn for the better. In seven of the last 12 major currency crises, residents started bringing money back earlier than foreigners.

 

More broadly, economists and politicians might rethink the blame they heap on “immoral” foreigners in periods of capital flight. They assume global money managers are more sophisticated than provincial locals — but those longtime residents are in fact quicker to spot and respond to trouble in their own backyards. They might also assume that residents are more loyal than foreigners. But the drive to protect one’s assets often trumps patriotism.

 

Millionaires move money mainly out of self-interest, to find more rewarding or safer havens. There aren’t a lot of them, but they can tell us a great deal about what is going wrong — and right — in a country’s economic and political ecosystems. Leaders who create the right conditions to keep millionaires home will find that all of their residents — not just the wealthy ones — are richer for it.

20180604 The millionaires are fleeing.jpg

 

 

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習莫強勢 戰將受制 中印和緩

accessed May 11, 2018

●中印和緩尚有另一因素:習近平與莫迪皆為心靈修行者。

20147月兩人首次見面,莫迪提出請求:修護中印邊境之22公里極端危險的乃堆拉山口朝聖道路。

20155月莫迪首次訪中國後不久於622日乃堆拉朝聖新路線正式開通。

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20141023 乃堆拉山口朝聖路線明夏開通.jpg

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林中斌

名人堂稿件

日期:20180510   本文字數:1100    目標字數:1100

「我們相信美國嗎?不大可能」

這是印度退休大使Rajiv DograSunday Times of India報紙二○一一年三月廿日的評論標題。理由是:「美國自我為中心,容易撿起新盟友,也隨意丟棄老朋友。…美國對印度的興趣是我們廣大的市場讓他賺錢,和我們重要的戰略地位,可幫他對付崛起的中國。如此而已。」當時四個月前,美總統歐巴馬剛訪印。

今年四月廿七日,印度總理莫迪二度訪問中國,廿二日才臨時宣布。他與習近平交談六次,其中三次兩人密會。雙方達成加強經濟戰略合作多項共識。莫迪原已計劃六月前往青島參加國際會議時見習近平。為何先多此一舉?此外,印度是去年十一月美國川普總統宣示「亞太戰略」(圍堵中國)美、日、澳、印四民主核心國之一。為何,莫迪向非民主的中國示好?

原因有三。一,如Dogra大使所示,印度對美國的殷勤懷有戒心。二,川普以美國國內為優先,東亞各國開始擔心,而程度不同的轉向北京,印度也不例外。三,更重要是:習莫強勢戰將受制。而且,習贏得莫的信任。

一四年九月十八日,是剛上台的印度總理莫迪生日。他盛情在故鄉家中設晚宴招待來訪的習近平。當日下午,一千名解放軍進駐拉達克中印未定界,一千五百名印軍立即向前對峙,情勢緊張。

宴席中,莫迪調侃的說,謝謝習主席送我的「意外生日禮物」。習只好說將盡速處理,顏面盡失。

根據九月廿三日Forbes Asia報導,雙方領袖顯然都遭遇內部軍人的扯肘。習回京後下令撤軍,訓令將領改進指揮鏈,服從他領導,並取消負責紀律的劉源和張幼俠原定撰昇軍委會副主席的計畫。

一三年五月,剛與習一起上任總理李克強訪問印度。而解放軍四月跨越拉達克未定界實際控制線,造成兩軍對峙近三週,事先破壞李訪印的外交成果。

負責中印邊境的成都軍區與圖謀奪習李政權的薄熙來關係深厚。軍區中的十四集團軍為其父薄一波創建。據說,一二年薄熙來曾策反十四集團軍流產。一六年,習近平趁軍區改戰區時裁撤十四軍。

一七年九月五日印度媒體Hindustan Times報導:一七年夏天,中印軍隊於洞朗對峙七十三日,在八月廿八日雙方達成協議同時後撤。同一天,習近平拔除聯合參謀部參謀長房峰輝。顯見,房峰輝曾阻礙和解,可能想藉由與印度打一仗,拉抬自己聲勢。

一七年十月中共十九大後,習近平對軍隊掌握更上層樓,對控制中印邊境解放軍應更到位。

一般來說,軍人靠打仗立功,不樂見與鄰國和解。中印皆然。

莫迪上任以來,政績斐然。一八年一月民調顯示,他的支持度高達五十三趴。他已是印度獨立以來歷任總理支持度比較下最高的,達廿八趴,遠超過第二位Indira Gandhi的廿趴。

相當於印度陸軍總司令的Bipin Rawat一七年初,號稱可同時進行兩個戰爭。莫迪壓得住鷹派將領,不只在一七年九月三日任命的鴿派女性國防部長,後者十月初尚且親赴中印邊境合什向解放軍祝福問候。

中印和緩序幕拉開了。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長

 

 

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中國的一帶一路是新殖民主義嗎? Is China's Silk Road project the new colonialism? ~ New York Times May 4, 2018

accessed May 9, 2018

*作者華府喬治城大學歷史系教授James Millward說不是。

*巧的是"環遊世界80"作者Jules Verne1893年寫過小說有內容是橫貫歐亞的鐵路直通北京!!(中斌按:他也寫過在下世紀,即廿世紀,美國將在Florida發射太空火箭)

*本文作者說一帶一路是超越國界為他國謀福利,至少比川普的保護主義和西歐排外主義好。

*他又說西方長期在非洲,卻不比中國減少非洲貧窮做得多。

*控訴中國陰險計劃統治世界,太一概而論了。

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