Reef Knots

在南海爭議上升時，中國已在推動新的睦鄰外交。  林中斌 2015.11.23

「amidst the rising tensions in the Spratly, Beijing has begun a new wave of charm offensives.」  Chong-Pin Lin Nov.23.2015

$441.6 Billion

Rising Sino-U.S. economic interdependent   Chong-Pin Lin

林中斌:兩岸整合巨輪 滾動後就很難停了

http://udn.com/news/story/8946/1294249-%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%9A%E5%85%A9%E5%B2%B8%E6%95%B4%E5%90%88%E5%B7%A8%E8%BC%AA-%E6%BB%BE%E5%8B%95%E5%BE%8C%E5%B0%B1%E5%BE%88%E9%9B%A3%E5%81%9C%E4%BA%86

Abe’s Avoidance of the Past

HOWARD W. FRENCH, New York Times, Aug 18, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/opinion/howard-french-shinzo-abes-avoidance-of-the-past.html  accessed Nov 2, 2015

l  這是一篇難得的全面而客觀的分析，作者是美國哥倫比亞大學教授。他說安倍使中日情況惡化，但北京濫用民族主義也有責任。文革死亡三、四千萬人遠超過日軍殺的中國人。安倍曾嘗試友中，也在今年4月為日本二戰行為表示懺悔。但他錯在「勉強認錯」。

Who will fight the next war?

The Economist, Oct 24, 2015

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21676778-failures-iraq-and-afghanistan-have-widened-gulf-between-most-americans-and-armed  accessed Nov 2, 2015

l  美國兵源困難，只有1%願意當兵。當兵的人教育低，窮，大部分為黑人。

Ted Koppel

Michael Scherer, TIME, Oct 22, 2015

http://time.com/4082932/9-questions-with-ted-koppel/  accessed Nov 2, 2015

l  美國媒體兩極化(其實政治也是)。中立客觀媒體無法生存。

儒家遇上馬列 大陸掀國學熱

2015/10/24 旺報 記者陳君碩

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20151024000921-260301   accessed Nov 2, 2015

l   今年7月中央黨校也辦首屆「領導幹部國學論壇」。習近平右手抓改革(含精神文明之復興)，左手抓維穩(含馬列主義之學習)。

《華府觀察》只能跑獨家的台灣媒體

2015/10/05 自由時報 曹郁芬

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/920987   accessed October 12, 2015

l   這是久駐華府的自由時報記者之感言，值得反思和參考。

林中斌2015.10.12

“就在過去五、六年，中國派駐華府的記者顯著成長，且活躍於各種採訪場合。現在國務院批評中國政府，可能會被中國記者反嗆……。還記得剛出道做小記者時，曾在香港蘭桂坊聽香港記者抱怨，他們在台灣念新聞，但回到這個只關注跑馬、緋聞和社會新聞的彈丸之地，充滿有志難伸的鬱悶。看著華府新聞界的變化，我忽然回憶起那一夜在蘭桂坊喝的苦酒加咖啡了。”

The Most Important Thing, and It’s Almost a Secret

NICHOLAS KRISTOF, International New York Times,

October 1, 2015

(Extreme poverty in retreat, October 2, 2015)

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/01/opinion/nicholas-kristof-the-most-important-thing-and-its-almost-a-secret.html?_r=0   accessed Oct. 12, 2015

l  The New Age predicted by the great Swedish scientist/ defense minister Emmanuel Swedenborg (1688-1772) seems to be approaching.

Chong-Pin Lin Oct.12, 2015

Is Libya Headed for Another Qaddafi?

FREDERIC WEHREY, International New York Times,

Oct. 1, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/02/opinion/is-libya-headed-for-another-qaddafi.html

accessed Oct. 12, 2015

l  2011年茉莉花革命推翻格達費，帶來動亂，演變成2015年來另一位”格達費”之崛起。

林中斌 2015.10.12

Is Vladimir Putin Trying to Teach the West a Lesson in Syria?

IVAN KRASTEV, The New York Times, Oct. 7, 2015

(Is Putin trying to teach us a lesson? Oct. 8, 2015)

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/08/opinion/ivan-krastev-is-putin-trying-to-teach-us-a-lesson.html 

accessed Oct. 12, 2015

1.普丁似乎教訓美國:不要又鼓勵別國人民革命推翻政府，出了問題，又不能協助革命份子，也不能帶來穩定和繁榮。要不然說到做到，要不然就閉嘴。

2.今日莫斯科書店裏歷史書把1917革命定位為:政變，而非革命。政變後面的黑手是

A.德國參謀本部,或

B.英國情報組織

“Most of the popular history books on the Bolshevik revolution of 1917 you can find in Moscow bookstores today tell the story of Lenin and his comrades not as a popular uprising, but as a coup d’état, engineered by — and here you have a choice — the German general staff or British intelligence agents. Any time and any place when people demand power, the situation gets worse.”

Chong-Pin Lin Oct.12, 2015

     林中斌 2015年10月12日

The world doesn't have to fear Japan

Ian Bremmer, Time, Oct 5, 2015

http://time.com/4047863/the-world-doesnt-have-to-fear-japan/

 accessed Oct 5, 2015

l  It appears that Bremmer read my May/June 2015 Asian survey article “Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tension with China: Struggle without Breaking”

Chong-Pin Lin Oct 5, 2015

The U.S. war against ISIS is going nowhere

Mark Thompson, Time, Oct 5, 2015

http://time.com/4047857/the-u-s-war-against-isis-is-going-nowhere/

  accessed Oct 5, 2015

l  U.S. primacy on the military power does not work and may backfire eventually.

Chong-Pin Lin Oct 5, 2015

From schoolboy to survivor

Chris Buckley and Didi Kirsten Tatlow, The New York Times, Sep 25, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/25/world/asia/xi-jinping-china-cultural-revolution.html

 accessed May 24, 2015

l  Note the story now Xi Jinpine was struggled against during the cultural revolution while his own mother denounced him. This has not been told before.

Chong-Pin Lin Oct.5,2015

Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle Offers Cold Shoulder to Western Officials

Edward Wong, The New York Times, Sep 25, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/26/world/asia/xi-jinping-china-president-inner-circle-western-officials.html

accessed Sep 25, 2015

 l  Xi relies mainly on his own knowledge and instincts in making decisions. Under Mr. Xi, there is no equivalent of Dai Bingguo, the chief foreign policy oficial of the Hu administration who met with White House officials. Yang Jiechi holds the same title.

哥倫比亞半世紀內戰終結

2015/09/25 中國時報 尹德瀚

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20150925000493-260102

   accessed Sep 25, 2015

US Freedom of Navigation Operation

Eddie Linczer, American Enterprise Institute, Sep 25, 2015

http://www.aei.org/publication/walking-the-walk-in-the-south-china-sea/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=linczerscs

accessed Sep 25, 2015

歐習會成果超出預期

2015/09/27 中國時報 林中斌

http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20150927001135-260401?from=fb_share_mobile

   accessed Sep 25, 2015

 l   這是2015年9月25日坐在登七星山東峰的石階上用手機口述給中國時報記者由她撰成的評論。筆並非親筆所寫，無法如慣例的修改十次以上才發表。敬請包涵與賜正。

教宗出馬太福音 籲援助難民

2015/09/25 聯合報 賴昭穎

http://udn.com/news/story/7582/1209115-%E6%95%99%E5%AE%97%E6%8F%90%E5%87%BA%E9%A6%AC%E5%A4%AA%E7%A6%8F%E9%9F%B3-%E7%B1%B2%E6%8F%B4%E5%8A%A9%E9%9B%A3%E6%B0%91

l   教宗昨日在美國國會演講所提到四位代表美國人民的人物。其中一位是我注意數十年的Thomas Merton , a Trappist monk (1915-1968). 他前往泰國等地研究佛教，後來用英文介紹佛教及道教。家中架上便有三本他的著作。

林中斌 2015.9.25

l   I am happy to read that Pope Francis mentioned Thomas Merton (1915-1968) in his speech to the US Congress yesterday. Merton was a pioneer in inter-religious dialogue. He went to study Buddhism in the Orient for years , and introduced Buddhism as well as Taoism to the West.

Chong-Pin Lin, 2015.9.25

歐習峰會 –合作將多於鬥爭

2015/09/17 天下雜誌 林中斌

http://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/70/article/3307#st_refDomain=www.facebook.com&st_refQuery=/

   accessed Sep 17, 2015

9月25日歐習峰會國內外專家多不看好，包括

2015.9.17 美前亞太助卿坎貝爾「美中關係：緊張」

2015.9.15 美外交關係委員會亞洲部主任Elizabeth Economy「歐習雙方都得不到所需」

但是9.21新聞：國際首例，美中協議管制網軍攻擊