Inside the Kushner channel to China

2017/05/11 The Washington Post

● 2016年11月中,季辛吉與川普和女婿庫士納會面。川請季去北京告訴習近平一切都可談。

● 2016年12月2日,川蔡通電話。同日,季見習。

● 2016年12月6日,季建議庫士納與楊潔篪見面。

● 2016年12月9日,崔天凱和楊赴川普大樓庫士納辦公室與庫士納及其他川普重要幕僚見面。楊要求川普接受"新大國關係" (a new model of great power relations)、    支持一帶一路、互不干涉內政,包括台灣西藏等。

● 2017年2月,習川熱線通話,庫士納建議川普接受"一個中國原則",被採用。

● 庫士納認為與中國關係:一切都可商量談判。

                                                         林中斌 2017.5.7

Inside the Kushner channel to China.JPG

Ahead of Thursday’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Trump administration is engaged in a relatively conventional process involving interagency teams debating the messaging, policies and priorities for the U.S.-China relationship. But separate and above that operation sits a key channel for high-level interactions between the White House and Chinese leadership, run by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

The Kushner channel was established shortly after the election with the help of former secretary of state Henry Kissinger. In a series of meetings with top Chinese officials, Kushner and other Trump aides set the tone and broad agenda for the coming summit, well before the current policy process began. When Trump meets with Xi at Mar-a-Lago, the leaders could codify those early discussions, with huge implications for the United States, China and the Asia-Pacific region.

Kushner’s goal, according to White House and transition officials, is to broaden and improve the relationship, despite several persistent challenges. That drive runs counter to the views of other top officials who want to confront Beijing on various issues, as Trump promised during the campaign.

In mid-November, Kissinger met Kushner, national security adviser designate Michael Flynn and the president-elect at Trump Tower. Trump asked Kissinger to travel to Beijing and deliver a verbal message to Xi saying that everything was on the table in terms of bilateral cooperation. Kissinger met Xi in Beijing on Dec. 2, and Xi sent back a private reply conveying China’s wish to set up an early meeting of the two presidents.

That same day, Trump took a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, prompting a rebuke from the Chinese foreign ministry. But despite public tensions, private wooing between the two sides continued. Kissinger met with top Trump aides, including Kushner, on Dec. 6 and encouraged them to meet with Chinese state councilor Yang Jiechi. Yang and Ambassador Cui Tiankai came to Trump Tower for two meetings with top Trump officials Dec. 9 and Dec. 10, hosted in Kushner’s office.

In the meetings, Yang laid out a list of Chinese requests. China wants the Trump administration to adopt its concept of “a new model of great power relations,” Xi’s proposal to avoid conflict and focus on cooperation. China also wants Trump to endorse Xi’s signature “One Belt, One Road” initiative, China’s massive regional infrastructure and development project. China also seeks U.S. noninterference in issues it considers core interests, including Taiwan, Tibet and its internal affairs.

In exchange, the Chinese are prepared to offer as-yet-unspecified investment proposals to help advance Trump’s domestic agenda of creating jobs. Kushner and Cui have kept in close communication and the Chinese leadership has come to rely on the Kushner channel, which was used to help arrange the coming summit.

Kushner separately met with the leader of the Anbang Insurance Group in mid-November, as his family’s company pursued a real estate investment from the Chinese company. Those negotiations were put on hold last week amid criticism about a potential conflict of interest.

Inside the administration, there’s concern Kushner is too eager to warm relations with China. He is seen as allied in that effort with other top officials, including economic adviser Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Senior officials who want to pursue a tougher, more aggressive China approach include chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon, National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro, policy adviser Stephen Miller and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

One White House official said that Kushner is not reflexively pro-China and is keenly aware that Trump made confronting China on security and trade a pillar of his campaign.

Jared’s view on China is that everything is negotiable; he as a real estate guy thinks there are win-win solutions for everything,” the official said. “He’s also a politically savvy guy and he knows that a lot of these things affect his father-in-law’s political standing.”

Some warming of the relationship is already evident. Kushner was one of many aides who persuaded Trump to back down and reaffirm his commitment to the one-China policy in his February phone call with Xi. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson seemed to mimic Chinese talking points after meeting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing in March.

Observers following the summit will focus on what is sure to be tough language from the president on some specific issues. On North Korea and the South China Sea, the administration is projecting a traditional hawkish Republican security policy. On trade, Trump seems to be sticking to a nationalist America-first economic agenda.

But if Trump also endorses China’s model for the relationship, its regional expansion and by omission its internal repression, that will not only signal a new era for the relationship but also show that Kushner is the most important figure in U.S.-China relations.


林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

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  • 在川蔡电的时候,我给人大代表致信一封,请人大代表提出议案,授予国家主席发起非战争军事行动的权力————就像美国总统有不经国会批准,发起不超过60天的军事打击的权力一样。川蔡电风波虽然平息,但是影响仍在,我依然认为中国国家主席掌握战争权非常必要,可以可以随时对台湾伪政权的。我将继续推动此议的落实。