習近平對台兩手策略

accessed January 25, 2018

 

●以下是 經濟學人(Economist)"榕樹" (Banyan)專欄記者 Dominic Ziegler 2018116日電話訪問之後於118日所發表的英文文字,以及123ETtoday新聞雲所摘譯發表之中文報導。中文報導在前,英文專欄文字隨後。

●所附圖一為經濟學人(Economist)"榕樹" (Banyan)專欄。

●所附圖二為117日在下於Assurex 主題演講中圖片之一(習對台之軟硬兩手策略:Xi's Two-pronged Taiwan Tactics),曾事先寄給記者參考。

敬請卓參指教。

林中斌 2018.1.25

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經濟學人:陸對台青年釋利多 新招「軟硬兼施」改變看法

ETtoday新聞雲 2018012317:17

https://www.ettoday.net/news/20180123/1098694.htm 下載2018.1.25

國際中心/綜合報導

最新一期《經濟學人》(The Economist)雜誌撰文評論,認為中方對台灣採取軟硬兼施的態度,雖然一方面對外資企業施壓,又片面啟用M503航線,但另一方面,又願意給予台灣年輕人高薪、創業基金,甚至是住房補助,扭轉了不少年輕人對中國大陸的看法。

文中首先指出,中方近來對台動作頻頻,像是要求有航班飛往中國大陸的航空公司「更正」將台灣列為國家的網頁,甚至關閉全球最大的連鎖飯店集團之一的萬豪酒店的中文網站,作為萬豪酒店在問卷中將台灣列為國家的懲戒。

除了害怕影響生意,這些外資企業更怕觸犯中國大陸的網路與國家安全法規。萬豪酒店多次公開道歉,連CEO也寫信致歉,「我們絕不支持任何損害中國主權和領土完整的任何分裂組織」達美航空公司則為了傷害人民感情道歉,ZARA甚至承諾願意「自我審查」。

文章也寫道,中方的做法是要壓縮台灣的外交空間,同時對台施加心理壓力。雖然台灣總統蔡英文上台時,做出不會破壞兩岸關係的承諾,但對中方而言還不夠,並對蔡英文不承認九二共識感到不滿。

習近平雖然沒在十九大上展現對台更強硬的政策,但對台毫不妥協的言論,也讓他贏得比起其他議題更長的掌聲。文中指出,中方將會持續施壓,在外交方面,自從巴拿馬去年跟台灣斷交後,邦交國只剩下20個,可能會繼續減少,宏都拉斯、帛琉和聖露西亞都有可能是下一個。在國防方面也有動作,除了啟用M503航道,2016年起中方軍機也開始「繞台」巡邏,先前在朱日和的閱兵,還出現與台灣總統府相似的建築物。

然而這些都不是新招,經濟學人認為,習近平的創新之處在於對台灣年輕人釋出利多,像是為大學教授提供比在台灣更高的薪資、各省成立研究中心鎖定招攬台灣年輕人,甚至在南部的東莞市,台灣科技企業家可免費獲得創業資金及免費的辦公室。

文末引用了前國防部副部長林中斌(Chong-Pin Lin)的話指出,這是習近平「軟硬兼施」的做法,在某些方面似乎正在改變台灣人對中國大陸的看法。文中也提到,蔡英文曾承諾要給年輕人更多的機會,但一直沒有太多進展,「台灣的經濟持續低迷,年輕人認為老一輩佔走了資源,在兩岸關係上,蔡英文得到的指責比習近平還多。」最近一個民調甚至顯示,台灣人民對習近平的好感度高於蔡英文,雖然他們並不欣賞對岸的政治文化,但中方正在馴化台灣年輕人,讓他們未來不會反咬自己一口。

 

Banyan

China is getting tougher on Taiwan

It is also luring its people

Economist Jan 18th 2018

https://www.economist.com/…/21735075-it-also-luring-its-peo…

accessed January 25, 2018

 

WHEN is a country with its own territory, laws, elected government and army not a country? Answer: when China deems it so. In recent days Chinese officials have ordered foreign businesses, including airlines operating flights to China, to “correct” websites that list Taiwan as a country, as well as remove images of the island-state’s flag. Censors even shut down the Chinese website of Marriott, one of the world’s biggest hotel chains, for a week as punishment for categorising Taiwan as a country in a customer questionnaire (the firm caused additional offence by putting Hong Kong, Macau and Tibet in the same category, which—to be fair to China—they are not).

China’s rabidly nationalist netizens have even called for a boycott of Marriott. But more than losing business, foreign operators in China fear running foul of sweeping new cyber- and national-security laws. Among much else, these prohibit anything deemed to “damage national unity”. The apologies issued by some operators were party-speak. Marriott said, “We absolutely will not support any separatist organisation that will undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Delta airlines apologised for hurting the feelings of the Chinese people. Zara, a European fashion chain, even promised a “self-examination”.

For Taiwanese, it is more proof that China is out to squeeze them until the pips squeak. The Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, but considers it a sacred mission to bring the island under its control. China threatens force should Taiwan formally declare that it will remain independent for ever. The party views even “peaceful separation” as an abomination.

China mixes bullying with blandishments. The bullying, of which the move against foreign websites is part, is meant to shrink Taiwan’s diplomatic space and exert psychological pressure. Since Tsai Ing-wen became the island’s president in May 2016, China has shut down high-level contacts across the Taiwan Strait that had burgeoned under her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou. Unlike his Kuomintang (KMT) party, with its historical roots in China, Ms Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party aspires in its charter to formal independence. The president herself, a pragmatist, has made plain her goodwill, by promising from the start that she will not rock the cross-strait boat. The independence clause lies dormant. She blocked attempts to expand a new referendum law to allow plebiscites on matters of sovereignty, including on Taiwan’s official name (the Republic of China).

But for China none of this is good enough. It views the referendum law as a step towards a vote on independence. It has even attacked laudable new legislation aimed at redressing human-rights abuses that occurred during the years of KMT dictatorship. China sees the bill as an attempt to erase all sense of a Chinese identity among Taiwanese: in those days, the KMT was proud of its Chinese nationalism, even though it hated the Communists. Above all, China is furious with Ms Tsai for refusing to acknowledge the “1992 consensus” between the two sides: that both Taiwan and the mainland belong to a single China, and that they agree to disagree what exactly China means.

So Taiwan is in the doghouse. Some policymakers were relieved that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, did not suggest he would get even tougher with it when he spoke at a big party gathering in October. Even so, his uncompromising remarks about Taiwan drew the longest applause of anything he said. Soon after that meeting, he told President Donald Trump that Taiwan (not North Korea’s nukes) was the most critical issue in Sino-American relations. Mr Xi talks of China’s “great rejuvenation” by 2049. That surely implies the return of Taiwan to the fold by that date.

The pressure continues, then. On the diplomatic front, the 20-strong band of countries that recognise Taiwan is bound to be whittled down further, following Panama’s switch to China last year—Honduras, Palau and St Lucia could be next. Earlier this month China reneged on an agreement with Taiwan by announcing four new commercial air routes that run either close to the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait or close to Taiwan’s main offshore islands. Taiwan described this unilateral move as a threat to air safety and to the island’s security. But it is powerless. Taiwan is not a member of the International Civil Aviation Organisation, whose Chinese head previously ran the civil-aviation authority that declared the opening of the air corridors.

China has been flexing military muscle, too. Since 2016 its warplanes have carried out “island-encircling” patrols. China’s state media have published images of these, with Taiwan’s mountains in the background. A recent exercise in northern China involved storming a full-sized mock-up of Taiwan’s presidential palace.

Come on over sometime

All this is out of the old playbook. Mr Xi’s innovation is to single out young Taiwanese and to pile on the blandishments. Colleges offer Taiwanese teachers better pay than they could get in Taiwan. Chinese provinces are opening research centres aimed at young Taiwanese. In the southern city of Dongguan, Taiwanese tech entrepreneurs can get free startup-money and subsidised flats. Over 400,000 Taiwanese now work in China. The young in particular are crossing the strait in droves.

Lin Chong-pin, a Taiwanese scholar and former senior official, calls this Mr Xi’s “soft prong”. In some respects it seems to be reshaping attitudes towards China. It does not help Ms Tsai that she has failed to make much progress on her promise to create more opportunities for the young. Taiwan’s economy remains sluggish. The young think older generations get the better deal. But she gets the blame for tricky cross-strait relations more than Mr Xi does. A recent poll even shows Taiwanese feeling more warmly towards Mr Xi than to Ms Tsai. They do not admire China’s political culture. But Mr Xi may be nurturing a reluctance among young Taiwanese to bite the hand that feeds them.

 

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline "Hard prong, soft prong"

 

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