經濟掛帥:世界的新現實

《國際經濟》2015年夏季刊,頁14-15

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

林中斌

台灣前國防部副部長,現任國防大學兼任教授

字數:1779

 

邀稿提問:

 

《國際經濟》總編輯及創辦人大衛˙斯密克(David M. Smick)2015年春天向數十位國際觀察家邀300-500字的英文稿回答以下的問題:

 

全球先進工業化國家的經濟和金融策略是否該重新評估並且調整?

 

二次大戰之後所成立的國際經濟和金融機構,包括國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)、世界銀行(World Bank)、國際清算銀行(Bank of International Settlements)、各地區的發展銀行,其目的在於提供全球合作的平台。但是這些機構現在陷入可信賴度的危機。像七大工業組織(G-7) 和二十國集團(G-20)之類的組織對於全球金融市場來說也看來愈來愈無關緊要。

 

舉歐洲為例。對付希臘的經濟危機,歐洲聯盟委員會(EU Commission)、歐洲中央銀行(European Central Bank)、歐盟理事會(EU Council)、歐盟理事會(EU Parliament)、歐洲議會(EU Commission)以及財務部長的歐洲集團(Eurogroup of finance ministers)都連帶遭受了名譽損失。由於國際貨幣基金組織參與了處理希臘危機的「三頭馬車」(還包括歐洲聯盟委員會、歐洲中央銀行),對於希臘勞工家庭來說,「三頭馬車」與無情的樽節成為同義字。

 

在世界的另一邊,有些分析師相信中國新成立的亞洲基礎建設投資銀行 (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)有潛力成為世界銀行強勁的競爭者。

 

以上所提西方國際經濟和金融機構可信任程度的損失是否誇大了?如果不是,西方國際經濟和金融策略聲譽的損失可以彌補嗎?如何彌補?

 

以下為約廿位國際政策戰略家專家提供他們的看法。

 

作者回答

 

經濟掛帥。雖然目前尚不明顯,這是世界上逐漸成形的現實。自從千禧年後,各國之間經濟互相依賴的程度衝破以往的紀錄。這趨勢帶來了幾項意涵。

 

第一,對主要大國來說,軍事原本是外交工具之一,但是價碼愈來愈高,令許多使用者的財力負擔不起,不只如此,使用軍事做外交工具其反效果愈來愈嚴重。21世紀的大國們如有爭議,打對手一拳,自己反而痛;捅對手一刀,自己卻流血。

 

第二,在國際關係裡,不流血的工具比流血的工具可用性更高。其中經濟工具的重要性愈發突出。

 

第三,上升強權與在位強權的軍事衝突不再是無法避免。「修昔底德陷阱」的理論的效用要打折扣。

 

第四,為了國家長期的利益,與其他國家合作會比與其他國家抗爭更有吸引力。

 

第五,世界上,愈來愈多的戰爭是內戰,或大國打小國,而不是大國之間的戰爭。

 

總之,世界上大國之間的運作,用間接的方式得益多,而用直接、對抗的方式得益少。

 

近年來,美國在地緣政治上的失利—如攻打阿富汗、伊拉克深陷泥淖—

多半和忽略了上述的趨勢有關。因為美國全球戰略以軍事為主,輕易用兵,並且為了維護美國國際的優勢不擇手段。一個鮮明的實例是它對北京成立「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」處理方式所遭遇的挫折。20153月,中國宣佈成立「亞投行」。美國批評「亞投行」機制不週延,質疑其目的不光明,並反對美國盟友參加。然而美國最堅強的盟英國友不顧美國反對宣佈參加,連帶了拉進美國在西歐其他的盟友¬¬¬—德國、法國、義大利。

 

之前,201312月,英國首相,大衛˙卡梅倫帶領英國有史以來最大的海外參訪商團前赴北京。他宣稱:「英國將成為西方對中國最堅強的支持者。」在之前的18個月,中國對英國投資總量超國了過去卅年的總合。所以,20153月,卡梅倫子不過兌現了他事先的許諾,而那個許諾是北京對倫敦加速下經濟功夫所致。

 

中國對美國其他參與「亞投行」的盟友—德國、法國、義大利、澳洲、南韓 - 也在經濟上下了類似的功夫。

 

北京遵循了孫子兵法所說的「不戰而屈人之兵,善之善者也」。所以,廿一世紀中國的大戰略是「不戰而主東亞」甚至「不戰而主歐亞」。北京所用的方針是「超軍事手段優先」。「超軍事手段」包括沒有硝煙也不流血的工具例如經濟、文化、外交、媒體等等。如果華府繼續遵循西方兵法家克勞塞維茨所說的「戰爭就是是暴力推到極致」-- 也就是說沒有暴力就不算戰爭,沒有戰爭就沒有勝利,華府將來還會面臨事先沒想到的挑戰,而被動因應。

 

「世界銀行」是美國在二次大戰後成立的,但是進入廿一世紀,其功能已無法照顧發展中國家的需求。然而,華府對於改革「世界銀行」一直沒採取行動。於是北京就獲得了道義正當性和實際理由來成立「亞投行」以協助發展中國家。可是,201310月中國國家主席習近平宣布將成立「亞投行」時,華府並沒有太當一回事。然而,成為強烈對比的是,英國財政大臣喬治˙奧斯本在兩周內便趕到北京進一步瞭解亞投行的計劃。

 

今年7月中,世界銀行行長金墉(Jim Yong Kim)訪問北京拜訪亞投行秘書長金立群商討合作的可能性。這應該是未來的趨勢。

 

作者三年後追述

 

希臘於2008年破產,GDP成長於2011年為負9.1%。中國於2010年介入,大量投資並輔助希臘基本建設。其GDP2017年已正成長1.4%

 

Economy takes command

This is the emerging reality of the world

Chong-Pin Lin

Word count of text: 505

Date: July 23, 2015

 

Economy takes command. Though not yet obvious, this is the emerging reality in the world. Since the millennium, economic interdependence among nations has reached a magnitude unprecedented in human history. Several implications follow.

First, the military tool has become inhibitingly costly and growingly counterproductive among major powers. In the new century, hitting a rival, one feels the pain oneself, and stabbing him, one bleeds. Second, non-bloody tools in international relations become more viable than bloody ones. Among the former, economy has risen in importance. Third, a clash between a rising power and an established power is no longer inevitable. The Thucidides traps loses its validity. Fourth, cooperation will gradually tops contention for the long-term self-interest of each nation. Fifth, wars occur within one nation, between unequal powers, but no longer among major powers.

In short, among major powers, an indirect approach in statecraft wins and a direct and confrontational approach loses.

Failure to heed these new trends has led to recent geostrategic setbacks of Washington as it has so far predicated its global strategy on the primacy of the military force, and on its supremacy maintenance at all cost. Washington’s frustration during the emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank devised by Beijing was a case in point. In March 2015, Britain betrayed its most trusting ally the U.S. by joining AIIB – the integrity and intention of which Washington had questioned --taking other American allies along with it like falling dominoes.

In December 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron led the historically largest oversea trade mission to Beijing, and announced, “Britain will act as China's strongest advocate in the west”. By then, China had invested in his country during the previous 18 months more than what China did in the previous 30 years. In March 2015, Cameron merely lived up to his words which resulted from Beijing’s accelerated economic endeavor targeted at London.

China had applied similar economic tactics to woo other U.S. allies that ended up joining the AIIB -- Germany, France, Italy, Australia and South Korea.

Beijing has observed the adage of Sun Zi that “winning without fighting” is the best way to achieve victory, therefore China’s grand strategy is dominating East Asia or even Eurasia without war but with “extra-military instruments” such as economy, culture, diplomacy, and media. If Washington continues to follow the teaching of Clausewtiz that “war is an act of violence pushed to its utmost bounds”, it may become increasingly reactionary to challenges of unexpected nature.

Washington’s long inaction to reform the inadequate World Bank actually provided Beijing both the moral and the practical justification to establish the AIIB. Yet when Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced the formation of the bank in October 2013, Washington paid scant attention. In contrast, Britain’s Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne rushed to Beijing in two weeks.

In mid-July this year, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim visited Beijing and talked with AIIB Secretary General Jin Liqun to explore options for cooperation. This should be the way to go in the future.

 

Dr. Chong-Pin Lin, a former Deputy Defense Minister of Taiwan, now teaches at its National Defense University

 

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