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 Deciphering The East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone
11 April 2014 by Chong-Pin Lin
 
這是澳洲雪梨大學網站上貼的中文拙作"東海防空識別區解碼"(聯合報2014年1月13日)的英文翻譯，敬請賜正。
 
My article "Deciphering the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone" posted on Sydney University website:

http://www.chinastudiescentre.com.au/securitydefence/deciphering-the-east-china-sea-air-defense-identification-zone/
 
11 April 2014 by Chong-Pin Lin
Translated by Sam Hall
 
On 12 November 2013, a huge package of 60 reforms was announced at the 3rd Plenum of the 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress. On the 23rd, the People’s Liberation Army suddenly declared the “East China Sea Air Defense Identfication Zone (ADIZ)”.  There was fierce backlash from Asia-Pacific countries who then intentionally dispatched aeroplanes to pass though the zone. Nothing happened. Beijing’s image was damaged and it was half a month before the commotion calmed down.
 
What does this event signify for China, Japan, and the world?

First – China: Xi Jinping’s dual “spear” and “shield” reform moves.

During the 80s, the vanguard of CCP reform, Hu Yaobang, was crippled into defeat. The reason was that though he charged ahead with “spear” in hand, he had no “shield” cards with which to defend himself and so was crushed by anti-reform forces.

In view of this, Xi Jinping has likely adopted a dual offensive and defensive reform strategy so as to avoid making the same disastrous mistake. The scope of Xi’s reforms is unprecedented, vested interests are being challenged everywhere and, as one can imagine, resistance is enormous. The reforms include diminishing the realm of State Owned Enterprise, separating local administrative and judiciary powers –the players can no longer double as the referees, continuously pulling down high level corrupt officials from their posts, and anti-corruption measures have even gone to taking down the ‘tigers’– former Politburo Standing Committee Member Zhou Yongkang and Central Military Commissioner Xu Caihou have already lost their freedom of action and are being investigated. Additionally, at the beginning of November announcement was made to strictly prohibit the use of public money in the purchase, printing or mailing of greeting cards. At the end of December, smoking was banned throughout all Party and government organisations. Xi has also adopted three conservative, patriotic measures to defend against anti-reformers who may find some pretext to attack Xi’s reforms. A series of moves to strengthen the military have been revealed including: establishment of the ADIZ, the Liaoning aircraft carrier’s journey South, two test firings of the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, the unveiling of Zh-20 military helicopters, and the Chang’e moon landing. High profile commemoration on Mao Zedong’s 120th birthday. Strict control of liberal opinion. Whoever opposes Xi must be unpatriotic and must be anti-Party!

Second –Japan: Either accidental sparking of conflict or acceptance of the current situation.

The “East China Sea ADIZ” contains the Japanese occupied Diaoyu [or Senkaku] Islands, overlapping with the “ADIZ” previously declared by Japan. Beijing’s hidden agenda is to force Japan to unilaterally spark off war and thereby lose grounds from which to insist on its position. Consequently, an America with an economy heavily reliant on China has no choice but to place added pressure on Tokyo to accept Beijing’s demands –acknowledge dispute exists over the Diaoyu Islands and agree to negotiate with Beijing. So far, Japan is yet to acknowledge there is dispute over the Diaoyu Islands. Moreover, China is also America’s largest creditor. If Japan avoids sparking off war, over time, it will have implicitly accepted China’s “East China Sea ADIZ” as fait accompli. In 2012, the PLA proposed the planning of an “ADIZ”. Xi Jinping delayed stamping his seal approval until July 2013, making clear his intention that the ADIZ and reforms were a coherent set by assigning its announcement to after the Third Plenum. However, the PLA obviously lacked sufficient coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Beijing should have fully informed other countries of its intentions so as to lessen their protests and thereby isolate Japan as the only country that will backlash. Yet Beijing has not done this, only notifying America half an hour before announcement. This flaw in execution has probably occurred in the transitional gap between new and old policy decision mechanisms. Originally the “Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group” was to come to a stop, while the “National Security Commission” just announced for establishment at the Third Plenum was not yet in operation. Soon after, Xi probably personally jumped down to take the reins and speedily resolve the awkward situation.

Third – the World: Bringing America to collective discussions on air traffic regulations.

In 1950, when America first announced the establishment of an “ADIZ” it thus became the initiator of this thorny practise. Japan followed suit in 1970, as did other American allies. These countries never consulted other countries. After Beijing established the “East China Sea ADIZ”, America responded, stating that infringement on “the right to legally and freely navigate in international air space and international waters” could not be tolerated. Ironically, in 1982 the United Nations already had this type of regulation as part of the Convention on the Law of the Sea, yet America was the only major country that has not signed! 166 of the 199 countries in the United Nations had already signed. After 1980, the number of aircraft in the air worldwide doubled every 15 years and will continue to do so in the future. If every country in the world rose to copy unilateral declaration of “ADIZs” and define their own flight regulations, the future would be one of “great chaos in the skies” (paraphrasing a Chinese phrase “great chaos under the heaven”). Civil aviation worldwide would become exceptionally arduous. Although the CCP declaration of the “East China Sea ADIZ” has lead to a momentary dispute, it will however greatly assist the world in an unexpected way. This is because such a move will trigger off each major country (including America) to collectively negotiate universal flight regulations in order to look after their own people’s flight safety. This is a noteworthy observation from Kishore Mahbubani, a former ranking diplomat to America from Washington’s good friend Singapore.

Chong-Pin Lin is former Deputy Defense Minister of Taiwan who held the Sun Yat-sen Chair at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service

〔translated by Sam Hall from an op-ed in Chinese published by the United Daily News (Taipei) 13 January 2014   http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/71931719〕
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