林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

溫家寶在深圳呼籲政治改革的幕後

Behind Wen Jiabao’s Political
Reform Talk in Shenzhen

    2010年8月21日溫家寶在深圳呼籲政治改革，引起國際上廣泛的注意。他說：不改革，現代化無法實現。其實，真正的推手是胡錦濤。而這一波新作為在2009年初已開始。中斌在8月2日登載聯合報的短文「林中斌：胡錦濤最大的敵人」已探討其根源。

    Chinese premier Wen Jiabao on August 21 appealled in Shenzhen on pushing for China’s political reform which has aroused growing domestic and international attention. In fact, the real force behind this wave of movement is China’s top leader Hu Jintao, and the curtain on this new drama had lifted as early as the beginning of 2009. My August 12 oped in Chinese printed in United Daily News entitled “Hu Jingtao’s Greatest Enemy” is translated as follows.

林中斌：胡錦濤最大的敵人

Chong-Pin Lin: Hu Jintao’s Greatest Enemy

【聯合報╱林中斌】 2010.08.12 03:17 am

[United Daily News/Chong-Pin Lin] 2010.08.12 03:17 am

    胡錦濤作為中共黨國最高的領袖，誰是他最大的敵人？美國？台獨？藏獨？疆獨？都不是。因為他們的「威脅」只會團結全國一致對外，進而鞏固胡及他繼承人的權威。

    Who is Chinese paramount leader Hu Jintao’s greatest enemy? The United States? Taiwan? The Tibetan Independence movement? Xinjian separatists? Actually, none of these. The threat they pose only serves to unite China to face the outside world, further consolidating the power of Hu and his successors.

    胡錦濤最大的敵人是地方貪腐官員。若不遏止，民怨上升，結合領袖間的政治鬥爭，將亡黨亡國。

    Hu Jintao’s greatest enemy is corrupt local officials. Left unchecked, local corruption will inflame public anger, and together with political infighting among the leadership will lead to the demise of the Chinese Communist Party and even to China itself.

    但這些人關係盤根錯節，後台老闆可能在政治局，就坐在胡錦濤身旁。胡投鼠忌器，只能先鞏固自身權力，等時機，找代理人徐圖之。

    These people network widely and their "Godfathers" may sit near Hu Jintao in the Party Politburo, the highest ruling body in China. That complicates the situation. Hu must first strengthen his own power, find his hatchet men, and wait.

    官員貪腐和國家缺乏民主有關。然而過度民主又可能全國大亂。

    Official corruptions stem from the lack of democracy; yet excessive democracy could lead to national chaos.

    胡若不謹慎，將步他恩人胡耀邦後塵，被鬥下台，含冤而亡。

    Unless he proceeds cautiously, Hu could very well follow the footsteps of his mentor, Hu Yaobang, who fell in a power struggle and died ignomiously.

    中共零八年奧運成功，零九年亮麗度過金融危機，四月國際海上閱兵，十月國慶大閱兵，十一月美國總統謙虛進京求見。於是，胡固權成熟，開始動作。

    In 2008 China successfully hosted the Olympics extravaganza, and in 2009 the country weathered the financial crisis and came out shining. Hu presided over an international naval parade in April 2009, and in October the grand military parades to celebrate the founding of the PRC. Later in November, he received in Beijing the visiting US president, who came to humbly seeking audience. By then, Hu had fully solidified his hold on power and begun to take action.

    以下事件，若無胡支持，不可能發生。但胡多隱而不見，這是他行事的商標。

    The following events would have been impossible without Hu’s support, but his trademark has been to stay out of the limelight and execute from behind the scenes.

    零九年初，官方媒體受指示可報導國內壞消息。春節央視大樓失火，報導不是路透、美聯社，而是新華社。

    At the opening of 2009, the official media received indications that reporting on negative domestic stories would be allowed. The news of the fire during the Spring Festival at the new CCTV building in Beijing was covered not by Reuters or AP but by Xinhua.

    二月，中共中央編譯局副局長俞可平在官方刊物《半月談》呼籲民主。

    In February, deputy director of the Central Compilation and Translation Bureau Yu Keping called for democracy in China Comment, an official publication.

    三月，國家行政學院教授汪玉凱在半官方媒體《新民周刊》唱和。

    In February, China National School of Administration professor Wang Yukai did the same in the official Xinmin Weekly.

    五月底，《趙紫陽回憶錄》香港出版，前中國新聞出版署署長杜導正公開承認協助出版，至今仍自由。

    At the end of May, the former head of China’s General Administration of Press and Publications, Du Daozheng, publicly admitted that he helped with the publication in Hong Kong of Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang, yet he remains free.

   六月，刺官烈女鄧玉嬌在網民聲援下無罪釋放。重慶黨委書記薄熙來開始掃黑，之後逮捕一千人，判罪八十七位官員中有前司法局長文強，其中四位已處決。廿九日，胡錦濤呼籲：「積極推進黨內民主」。
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    In June, pleas from China’s netizens helped win a “not guilty” verdict and the release of “martyr” Deng Yuqiao, a woman who stabbed a local official (in self-defense). CPC Chongqing Committee Secretary Bo Xilai launched an anti-corruption campaign, resulting in 1,000 arrests. Among the 87 officials convicted was former director of the Chongqing Municipal Judicial Bureau Wen Qiang, one of four who have been put to death. On June 29, Hu Jintao called for the “active advancement of democracy within the Party.”

    九月，黨的四中全會決議官員需申報財產，可能借鏡台灣實施十多年的政策。

    In September, possibly borrowing from a policy already in effect in Taiwan for over 10 years, it was resolved at the fourth plenary session of the Central Committee that high-ranking Party officials must report their assets.

    十一月，國營媒體揭露國營企業五礦集團汙染。

    In November, the state-run media exposed pollution caused by the state-owned China Minmetals Corporation.

    十二月，重慶市決定為五百七十三位文革犧牲者修墓並立碑紀念。

    In December, the city of Chongqing decided to repair the graves of 573 victims of the Cultural Revolution and erect a memorial stele.

    年底回顧，全年十七位省部級高官貪腐被捕判刑，創改革開放卅年來紀錄。

Looking back over the entire year, 17 minister- and governor-level officials were arrested and sentenced for corruption, the highest number in the 30 years since the beginning of China’s reforms and opening policy.

    今年三月，第二號國家領導吳邦國在人大報告時罕見提及文革的禁忌話題。

    In March of this year, Wu Bangguo, China’s second-in-command, raised the rarely-mentioned taboo subject of the Cultural Revolution in his report to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.

四月中，胡耀邦辭世廿一週年，總理溫家寶在人民日報發表長文悼念。

    In April, Premier Wen Jiaobao published a long remembrance of Hu Yaobang in the People’s Daily on the 21st anniversary of Hu’s death.

  七月底至八月初，有四起記者揭露社會黑幕而遭官商掛鉤勢力攻擊事件，但記者都得到國家新聞出版總署支持而勝出。

 

    At the end of July and into the beginning of August, reporters sprung up from every direction to expose society’s dark side, and suffered attacks from closely-tied officials and business interests. The journalists won out in the end, however, thanks to the support of China’s General Administration of Press and Publications.

    實施以上開明作法的同時，北京仍然嚴厲對待異議份子，如重判揭發川震豆腐渣校舍的譚作人。可是，北京的保守措施是舊聞，而開明措施才是新聞。

    While pursuing such enlightened approaches, Beijing nevertheless took a hard line against dissidents. For example, Tan Zuoren, who exposed the shoddy construction of schools and dormitories that compounded the destruction caused by the Sichaun earthquake, received a harsh sentence. But Beijing’s conservative measures are old news; the enlightened measures, on the other hand, are a new story.

   大陸目前的特殊狀況是：最高層的胡錦濤和溫家寶站在最下層窮苦人民那邊，對付中間貪腐的地方官員。

    The special situation on the Mainland today is this: Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao at the highest level are standing with the poor and downtrodden at the lowest level, facing off against corruption among mid-level local officials.

   多年來，大家常提的問題是：「兩岸相峙，時間站在哪邊？」其實，時間站在兩岸人民那邊。因為，政府是暫時的，人民才是永久的。

    For many years now, the question often heard has been: “In the standoff across the Taiwan Strait, which side does time favor?” In fact, time favors the peoples of both sides, because while governments are transient. the people are eternal.

    兩岸人民關切的都一樣：少年的教育，中年的房貸，老年的醫療。兩岸政府，誰能站在兩岸人民那邊，誰贏。如果雙方都站在人民那邊，雙贏。

    Concerns are the same for peoples on both sides: education for the young, mortgages for the middle aged, health care for the elderly. Whoever stands on the side of the two peoples will be the winner. If both sides stand with the peoples, then both sides will win.

    台灣六十年來做了政治、經濟、社會改革的實驗，規模小，風險低。大陸規模大，改革風險高。我們改革的心得可提供，好的如官員申報財產可參考，壞的如國會打架可避免。

    Taiwan’s 60-year experiment with political, economic and social reforms is small in scale and low in risk. The scale on the mainland is large, and the attendant risks are high. We can provide lessons learned from our reforms, good examples for China to study like asset-reporting requirements for public officials, and bad examples like brawling in the legislature as mistakes to avoid.

    台灣的大陸政策應兼顧交往和嚇阻。交往可幫助大陸人民提升生活品質，贏得好感，最後對台灣是利多。嚇阻是為了保護台灣這可貴的實驗室以繼續發揮它對大陸良性催化的作用。（作者為淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所教授）

    Taiwan’s mainland policy should incorporate both engagement and deterrence. Engagement will help the people of the mainland raise their quality of life, cultivate their goodwill toward us, and ultimately benefitting Taiwan. Deterrence is aimed at protecting the precious laboratory that is Taiwan, so that we may continue to act as a positive catalyst for the mainland. (The author, a former ROC Deputy Defense Minister, is a professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University)

【2010/08/12 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/