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Opening Remarks

CHINA’S ATYPICAL RISE
Dominating East Asia Without War

Chong-Pin Lin 

Assurex Global Asia/Pacific Conference,

January 17, 2018, Mandarin Oriental Taipei

 

另類大國崛起:北京不戰而勝而主東亞

2018117 國際企業集團 Assurex Global

亞太年會 主題演講

開場白

Last month, the president of Sri Lanka handed over to China Hambandota, an important port with the potential of becoming a naval base, for $292 million U.S. dollars to the chagrin of India, Japan and the U.S..

Interestingly, he, when elected president in January 2015 had suspended the port project with China, which had been previously launched by his predecessor.

Why did he flip flop?

 In June last year, the flagrantly anti-China prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, indicated his willingness to cooperate with China on its Belt Road Initiative, which Abe had previously resisted doing.

 Why did he shift his anti-China posture?

  At the end of last August, Indian prime minister Narenda Modi suddenly ended the border standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in Daklom that had begun in June.

  He then ordered Indian border troops to learn 50-60 Chinese sentences to avoid future misunderstanding between the two sides.

  Five days later, he appointed a new defense minister in the morning, and then left for China, arriving in Xiamen late in the evening to attend the BRICKS summit, along with leaders from Russia, Brazil and South Africa, which was hosted by Chinese president Xi Jinping.

  A month later, the new defense minister of India greeted the Chinese soldiers on the Sino-Indian border with a “Namaste”, which means “I bow to you”.

  Why did Modi and his defense minister take these actions accommodating China?

 

COMMON DENOMINATOR

       The common denominator of all three cases is China’s economic instrument employed to promote its regional influence.

●Sri Lanka, incapable of paying the mounting debt to China, succumbed to Beijing’s offer for the Hambandota Project .

●Japan’s Abe after US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership under President Donald Trump began to feel cooperating with China economically and 

  otherwise more attractive and even necessary.

● India’s Modi did not want to miss attending the BRICK summit hosted by China for its potentials of economic benefit to India.

 

This is only part of a bigger picture.

 

CONCLUSIONS

1. China’s grand strategy in the 21st century is dominating East Asia without war.

    Aversion to war-fighting, rooted in history, is observed to reduce resistance to China’s rise .

2. China’s rapidly advancing military capabilities serve not at the front but as the backbone of its extra-military instruments.

3. China’s guideline for contending with neighbors is “struggle without breaking”.

4. China’s extra-military instruments include most prominently those of economy, but also of diplomacy, psychology, media, and characteristically culture – professional, popular, and even spiritual culture such as religion.

5. Religion as policy instrument, coming to the fore under Xi Jinping, aims to promote domestic stability, and to enhance Beijing’s international image.

6.  Xi’s two-pronged Taiwan tactics, in the wake of the 19th Party Congress, are eing implemented with new vigor. The objective is to alter Taiwan’s public opinion in favor of cross-strait integration without war.

 

 

 

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How to present your views convincingly without stepping on others' toes? Jack Ma did it.

 

● 請看馬雲如何陳述自己的觀點而不引人反感。值得學習。

https://youtu.be/EPoMc69pQDY

林中斌 2017.1.22

 

 

 

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南海仲裁後 高潮已過,戲演完了

2016715日訪問 2016718日稿 記者 Mr. J

  • 這是某媒體記者J先生於南海仲裁案712日結束發表後三天對在下的訪問。文稿於718日寄出,至今該媒體尚未處理。
  • 美國已派海軍軍令部長John Richardson上將 及國安會顧問(相當於台灣國安會秘書長)Susan Rice 前訪北京。多維725日報導“不再支持仲裁 美國南海立場大轉變”。路透社727日報導:對此案美國姿態已退卻David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick ,U.S. diplomatic strategy on South China Sea appears to founder”。
  • 729日聯合報刊登路透社報導之中文翻譯“南海仲裁沒人挺, 美國硬不起來”。
  • 訪問稿超過10天並未發出,某媒體也許另有考量,目前刊登顯然有所不便。
  • 以下以個人身分呈上該稿原文,敬請賜教。

攝影: Mr. J  2016.7.15

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一帶一路下陸權海權的新活力

2016/7/24

  • 以下是2016724日在台大"一帶一路研討會"演講中在下所提的主題之一。

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一帶一路的大戰略

  • 以下是2016724日在台大"一帶一路研討會"演講所使用之投影片。

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Keynote speaking at Invite Taiwan conference, Kuala Lumpur

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l  On February 26, 2016, SinoPac Securities (永豐金證券) invited me to deliver the only keynote speech on the prospect of cross-strait relation and Taiwan political/Economic development to potential Malaysian investors on May 4 in Kuala Lumpur.

l  My concern was if I could speak independent of any “party line” without any political constraint. They said yes. I then accepted the invitation.

l  My topic was: ”The May 20 speech: Taiwan’s Economic and Political prospect after Tsai Ing-Wen’s Presidential Inauguration”.

l  My opening remarks and the power point presentation are attached.

 

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莒光園地

2016/01/07 林中斌

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8KNOizIzcU&feature=youtu.be

 

l   這是中斌受邀於2015年12月15日對國防部長率領之國軍重要幹部的演講,節目於2016年1月7日播出。

l   中斌演講從32分35秒開始,敬請賜教。

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遠東集團高階主管年會 開幕專題演講 

Part 1/3  

時間: 2015年12月10日 

地點: 台南遠東國際大飯店

題目: 先強後韌: 習近平對外風格下的兩岸前景

這是遠東集團公司董事長徐旭東第三次邀請我演講。

   

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孫運璿科技講座

國立清華大學科技講座

2015/11/25 林中斌

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GuUjfV8DNY

清大演講 - 4  

介紹:00:03:30

演講”偶爾言中”: 1:13:00

 

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清華大學演講:偶爾言中

2015/11/25

 

影片連結

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GuUjfV8DNY

 

 

 

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魔鬼沒了

寬恕融化了業力

True Forgiveness Melts Karma Away

(G.Renard, Love Has Forgotten No One p.168)

林中斌

2015.8.4 光中心新店會館 (中央七街7) 19:00 – 21:20

2-1 acim_p4.jpg

2-2 renard trilogy.jpg

 

 

這是讀者心得報告,談不上修行。

林中斌 2015.8.4

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 心靈與企業結合

  ("心靈的文藝復興" 主題之一 :4月19日星期天9:55am演講 北投振興醫院)




 
"不論你多麼富有,多麼有權勢,
當生命結束之時,所有的一切都祇能留在世界上,
唯有靈魂跟著你走下一段旅程,

人生不是一場物質的盛宴,而是一次靈魂的修煉,
使它在謝幕之時比開幕之初更為高尚!"



 
稻盛 和夫 (1932--) (1932--) 日本經營之聖, 1959創京都陶瓷時只有8人,10年後成全球大公司。1984創第二電信。


                         


 

 

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 March 25, 2015  Warsaw International Conference
2015
年3月24日 波蘭華沙國際會議
http://www.pism.pl/events/conferences/Conference-East-Asia-Security-Challenges-Vistas-for-Defusing-Tensions#



Participants in the conference"Security Challenges in East Asia: Vistas for Defusing Tensions" generally doubt there will be an open conflict in the region.
 

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 March 25, 2015  Krakow:
Yagiellonian University Seminar
2015年3月25日波蘭卡拉克夫
雅傑龍大學討論會
 
http://www.uj.edu.pl/uniwersytet/aktualnosci/video-foto/-/journal_content/56_INSTANCE_iSE9/10172/83572527

I gave a talk “AIIB and the New Silk roads: Xi Jinping’s Strategic Aspirations” at Yagielloian University, the oldest university in Poland, in Krakow which is the old capital of Poland. The thrust of my talk was Under the New Silk Road proposal, Xi Jinping aspires to break through the U.S.-backed containment of China with the unsaid final objective of counter-contain the U.S.
 
在波蘭古都卡拉克夫全國最老的雅傑龍大學,我對剛發生的大事發表看法“亞投行和一帶一路:習近平戰略的構想”。主要觀點是:在一帶一路表面經濟的構想之下,習進平有地緣戰略的目的,就是從海、路兩線向西突破美國的圍堵,達到反圍堵的最後目的。我們並拜會該校校長。
 
AIIB and the New Silk roads:
Xi Jinping’s Strategic Aspirations
Chong-Pin Lin
March 25, 2015 Krakow Poland
 
England will be the strongest supporter of China in the West”
So proclaimed British Prime Minster David Cameron on December 3, 2013 in Beijing where he led the historically largest business delegation (120 strong) from his country to visit the land of the Opium War which England launched two centuries ago.

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三中全會後內外情勢
2014.02.14 林中斌
 

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Struggle Without Breaking: Behind the rising East Asian maritime tension
Dr Chong-Pin Lin, Adjunct Professor at the Graduate Institute of Strategic Studies at Taiwans National Defense University
 
 


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 Struggle Without Breaking: Behind the rising East Asian maritime tension
Dr Chong-Pin Lin, Adjunct Professor at the Graduate Institute of Strategic Studies at Taiwans National Defense University

 
這是20135月在澳洲雪梨大學的演講錄音。題目是"鬥而不破:東亞海域緊張升高後的真相"。敬請賜教。

This is my talk for Sydney Idea series at Sydney University in May 2013, on which your enlightening comments are solicited and most welcome:

http://sydney.edu.au/sydney_ideas/lectures/2013/dr_chong_pin_lin.shtml

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20130917 與作者有約暨每月一書導讀會

 

書目:大災變你必須面對的全球失序真相

作者:林中斌著

導讀者:林中斌教授

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