目前分類:學術論文/journal papers (11)

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The dividing of America

 The Economist, July 16, 2016

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21702188-donald-trumps-nomination-cleveland-will-put-thriving-country-risk-great

accessed July 16, 2016

  • 2045年後美國白人將成少數。
  • 美國選民兩極化,中間重合將會變少。
  • 目前美國人賭川普會贏的是10人中有3,正合英國脫歐公投前賭會脫歐的比例一樣。
  • 根據美國選舉歷史,即使川普這次敗選,他的主張將成為未來共合黨的主張,如1964共和黨的Barry Goldwater1972民主黨的George McGovern

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225m reasons for China’s leader to worry

 The Economist, July 9, 2016

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701760-communist-party-tied-its-fortunes-mass-affluence-may-now-threaten-its-survival-225m

accessed July 9, 2016

 

  • 中國的中產階級在1990年代不存在。20005百萬,2016225百萬。她們2000年的收入式一年$11,500-$43,000
  • 很少中國中產階級的人想要民主,尤其在英國脫歐公投的「鬧劇」演出之後。
  • 中國群眾運動(抗議遊行)2010年有180,000,平均每天有493件。多年以前,每天只有300件。

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Economy Takes Command

Chong-Pin Lin, The International Economy, Summer 2015

 這篇拙作登在今年夏天的國際經濟季刊中與捷克、奧地利中央銀行行長、耶魯大學管理學院榮譽教授等經濟專家近二十人為伍。討論主題是西方先進國家的經濟財務政策是否應該翻修了? 實指的是美國對世界銀行、IMF缺陷遲之不改進導致中國亞投行興起的失誤。

國際經濟為歐美金融界領袖所閱讀,包括美前Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Alan GreenspanPaul Volcker等。

紐約時報、華盛頓郵報讚此季刊總站在趨勢的前端。

敬請賜教

林中斌 2015.9.21

Cover1  

Cover2  

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY - 1

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY - 2

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY - 4  

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19880600 Nuclear Strategy and Tradition - China's Nuclear Weapons: Tradition within Evolution



Chong-Pin Lin,“ Nuclear Strategy and Tradition” ,China's Nuclear Weapons: Tradition within Evolution (Lexington, Mass Lexington Book: 1998), p.272.

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20090400 Melting the Ice:


Beijing's Emerging Taiwan

Policy -  Ostasien

Geostrategischer

Schwerpunkt der Welt



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China may overtake the U.S. economy sooner than expected.

Can China Become the World’s Engine for Growth?






CHONG-PIN LIN

Former Deputy Defense Minister, Taiwan, and Professor, Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University in Taipei.

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China may overtake the U.S. economy
sooner than expected.




CHONG-PIN LIN
Former Deputy Defense Minister, Taiwan, and Professor,
Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic
Studies, Tamkang University in Taipei


Since the end of the 1990s, China’s economy has continued to outperform pessimistic forecasts. Several factors favoring the country’s resilient growth have been under-appreciated. First, for an expanding economy, China’s is the largest in scale in human history. Rules in textbooks based on past observations of comparatively smaller economies do not apply. For example, while the global financial crisis in late 2008 hit China’s export-oriented coastal provinces, the inland provinces were hardly affected by the economic downturn of the outside world. The latter then worked as a cushion for the slowdown of China’s economy which began to rebound by mid-2009.

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April 11, 2006

 

National and Capodistrian University of Athens
 


CHINA’S CROSS-STRAIT GO GAME

 




Please click here

for downloading





                       

 

 

Taiwan was once considered an unequivocal success-story in achieving speedy and smooth democratization that both Americans and Taiwanese prided themselves on. Now, the island is encountering multiple challenges, none more severe than those from across the Taiwan Strait. And, democracy to Taiwan’s national security is both assets and liabilities.

 

 

 

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BEIJING’S AGILE TACTICS ON TAIWAN

♣Conference on “The Political and Economic Reforms of Mainland China in a Changing Global Society”

♣College of Social Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei April 26, 2002


 

Chong-Pin Lin

☻This is a draft. Citation or quotation requires the author’s approval.

The views expressed here are purely personal, and do not represent the ROC government, or any agency thereof.

 

On March 15, 2000, People’s Republic of China Premier Zhu Rongi put on an unforgettable performance at a press conference in Beijing.




Download link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzSUZrV2o2bktuQXM
 

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MORE CARROT THAN STICK:


Beijing’s Emerging Taiwan Policy

 

Chong-Pin Lin

President, Foundation on International and Cross-strait Studies

Professor, Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies,


 
TamkangUniversity


檔案下載請按此

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