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經濟復甦將了 川普連任難料

accessed Aug 15, 2019

 

●這篇1,100字的文稿寫了5(8/7 - 8/12)。交稿後又改了四次,在交稿後第三天(8/15)登出。

●交稿後一天(8/13),川普宣佈暫緩加徵3,000億美金中國進口貨品中一部份(1,600億美金,請見下方貼圖3)10%關稅。正是拙文稿所寫他將面臨的兩難選擇:要打贏對中貿易戰,亦或要成功連任?魚與熊掌不可得兼。

●正好今日《旺報》登載(請見下方貼圖2)美國商會主席Tom Donohue 日前對CNBC訪問時說:川普顧慮明年大選期間經濟衰退不利選情所以原定9月生效的新關稅部分將移至12月。

●在下淺見:這可能是川習較勁的轉折點。川普暴露出他的軟肋:連任才是他最高目標。連任若與打贏貿易戰有衝突,他會在貿易戰上妥協。

 

敬請賜教

林中斌 2019.8.15 16:00

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2019.8.13 4份台灣紙本媒體國際新聞比較

accessed Aug 13, 2019

兩點觀察,一點申論:

 

唯一報導:《自由時報》〈人民幣中間價連3天貶破7:不甩被列入匯率操縱國〉是唯一整體報導的。《聯合報》《中國時報》沒有。《旺報》部份報導IMF不同意美國稱中國為匯率操縱國。

 

●獨立論點:《自由時報》稱:「中國不太可能面臨被美國貼上匯率操縱國標籤的嚴重後果」。但這說法與《自由時報》同頁下方的評論〈就是匯率操縱國〉相反。也可說,《自由時報》這篇國際新聞論點與《自由時報》政治立場(反中挺美)相反。

 

●潛流浮現:《自由時報》以本土起家。當初其國際新聞遠不如其他競爭者。時代轉換,歷史無情。今日情況已翻轉。《自由時報》國內新聞及論點絕大部分依然如既往,以本土為主,但國際新聞已大幅提高其含金量,經常出現其他紙本媒體所無的項目。此外科學的、自然的、非政治的新聞含量《自由時報》也超過其競爭者。

-- 趨勢觀察的要點是:大量資料的收集、去使命化的篩選等原則。破除既往的成見,冷血的觀察,擱置情緒好惡在一邊。

-- 依過去的觀點看現在及未來有誤判的可能。主帥如此料敵有敗兵亡國之危險。

 

-- 歷史上成功的將領,從不情緒化的對待周邊狀況,依個人使命好惡裁決情資。甚至尊重詳讀對手的一切。

 

 

個人淺見,敬請賜教

林中斌 2019.8.13

 

20190813 人民幣中間價 連三天貶破七.jpg

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澳洲拉攏失敗 巴紐2475億債務找中國融資

accessed Aug 11, 2019

這篇報導登載特色有二:

1. 其他台灣主要媒體紙本似乎未觸及同一事件。(此以本土優先起家的媒體,今日其國際報導含金量不亞於其他主要媒體,甚至呈超越之勢)

2. 此事件意涵北京對巴紐外交加分,澳洲對巴紐外交受挫。演伸的政治意涵與此報政治立場相悖。(長他人志氣,滅自己威風)(此媒體在國際新聞 報導上已呈現自信,不避諱"政治不正確"的新聞)

 

20190808 澳洲拉攏失敗 巴紐2475億債務找中國融資.jpg

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When will a recession hit the U.S.?

美國何時經濟衰退?

accessed Aug 6, 2019

 

●美國「全國商業經濟學家協會」281位參與今年1/30-2/8舉行的意見調查的會員中

-- 42趴認為2020(川普2020.11月面臨連任大選)

-- 25趴認為2021

-- 10趴認為2019年。

也就是說:

42+10=52 (超過半數)認為2020年美國經濟將衰退,結束了1890年以來美國歷史上最長的經濟擴展或經濟復甦。

 

A survey among 281 members of the National Association of Business Economist conducted between January 30 and February 8 showed that

--- 42% of the members think a recession will hit the U.S. in 2020,

--- 25 % think in 2021, and only

--- 10% think in 2019.

 

https://files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/286fb75e-4f63-46ac-b351-7f6e78c57f67.pdf

accessed August 6, 2019

 

●《紐約時報》2019.7.30 一篇分析舉出4個預測經濟衰退的因素。認為一晴三陰:

-- 失業率低 (Unemployment rate):晴

-- 公債殖利率倒掛 (The Yield Curve):雷雨警訊

-- 製造業指數下滑 (Manufacturing Index):大部份陰

-- 消費者心情 (Consumer Sentiment):局部陰

 

●《倫敦經濟學人》2019.713封面專題舉出三項新的因素可能觸發美國經濟衰退:

-- 中美貿易戰

-- 美國私有經濟(家庭及公司)負債上升

-- 美國國內政策

 

雖然《倫敦經濟學人》深度探討美國經濟擴展/復甦的長度近幾十年來不斷破紀錄的延長。但是美國經濟衰退遲早來臨。可能性與日俱增。

 

林中斌摘譯

敬請賜教

2019.8.6

 

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白邦瑞說:川普不視中國為敵人

The New York Times Aug 1, 2019

accessed Aug 4, 2019

 

2019.8.1紐約時報:

-- 白邦瑞說:"川普不視中國為敵人。...其實,他對中國顯示相當的克制。"

-- 美國兩黨國會議員都公開質疑川普為何遲遲不進行答應賣給台灣80億美元的F-16V 戰機。他們懷疑川普用此做與中國貿易談判的籌碼。這將是台北最大的噩夢。

 

20190801 White House is accused of delaying arms sales to Taiwan.jpg

20190728 阻陸崛起 美不惜退出貿易談判.jpg

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Trump's Trade War is Breeding Patriots in China

International New York Times Aug 12, 2019 pp. 9 & 11

accessed Aug 14, 2019

 

出生大陸的美國MIT教授黃亞生從美國國家利益角度批評川普打壓華為的錯誤。文筆犀利,舉證豐富,論點生動。

效果不彰:今年頭六個月華為銷售量比去年時期猛增23%
強化中國人民內聚力:打擊中國親美的自由派。削減中國人民長年對美國的好感。
華為非北京政府寵兒,中興才是真正的國營企業:川普封殺華為,卻放過中興。華為赴歐洲發展正因為在國內受政府的箝制。北京政府在華為海外成功後才對它重視。

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/09/opinion/china-trade-huawei.html

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Parlez-vous Anglais? Yes, of course.

The New York Times  Aug 12, 2019 pp.10

accessed Aug 14, 2019

美國人太自滿了,只講英文。
很多歐洲人已經能說比美國人更洗鍊的英文了。
俄國人寫的英文極道地。2016通俄門醜聞發生,俄國青年所寫的假信,讓美國人信以為真。
將來美國人去歐洲學英文,包括來回機票,都比在美國便宜。
全球冒出各式英文,有學者在研究。新加坡英文、印度英文、法國英文、阿拉伯英文等等。

 

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雙語可活化大腦、延緩失智/洪蘭

《聯合報》A132019813

accessed Aug 13, 2019

在一個學術研討會的歡迎晚宴上,我聽到一個年輕的大陸企業家對一群人說,他對大家一窩蜂送孩子學英文很不以為然,他認為再過十年,大陸會是世界第一貿易強國,那時各國商人都會來中國做生意,因為大陸的人口眾多,就像可口可樂公司的老闆說的,每個中國人買一罐可樂,那就是十四億罐的可樂,商機無限,屆時,中文會變成世界貿易的語言。他的孩子只要會講中文就可以了,因為貿易用的是強者的語言。

我聽了有點驚訝,對貿易我不懂,但是我知道多學一種語言對大腦是有好處的,多語言會改變大腦的結構,防止或延緩失智症的產生。

研究者發現雙語者在用一個語言時,他的另外一個語言也同時活化起來,這時他掌管注意和抑制功能的前腦額葉背側區(DLPFC,前腦叫總裁腦,負責計畫、策略、情緒控制等認知功能)會大量活化起來,使不說錯話。因為每天要說話,所以那個區域就會不斷的被活化,就強化了注意和控制的機制,從而改變大腦各區域的連接。當神經迴路的臨界點比較低時,比較容易觸類旁通、舉一反三。雙語者一般比較「機智」和「急智」,對當下的反應比較快,比較會隨機應變。

核磁共振的腦造影研究顯示,雙語者在兩個語言中間轉換說話時,它會啟動大腦很多其他部位的活化,包括控制認知功能的左下額葉迴(L-IFG)。這是重要認知功能的執行區。雙語增強這個執行功能的好處並不限於語言而已,在其他認知功能方面都有益,假設在安靜的環境中聽一個聲音,比如說/da/,單語者和雙語者大腦腦幹對聲音的反應是一樣的,但是環境吵雜時,雙語者腦幹神經元活化的程度就比較強,聽得比較清楚。而會兩種語言以上的多語者的反應又更優於雙語者,腦造影圖片顯示他們左腦下頂葉的灰質(神經元)和白質(神經纖維)都比較多。

這個雙語益處在嬰兒七個月大時就可以觀察到了,實驗者給嬰兒聽一個聲音,然後一個布偶就出現在螢幕的一端,嬰兒會轉頭去看。當實驗進行到一半時,布偶改在另一端出現,實驗者發現雙語嬰兒比較快學會規則改變了,會去適應新的需求。

多學一個語言不但改變大腦神經元處理訊息的方式,也改變大腦的結構,研究發現雙語者學習新知的效果比較好,他們學第三語言的速度比單語者學第二語言時來得快,也輕鬆些。

語言是最重要的認知功能之一,大腦是環境和基因互動的產物,趁年輕時多用大腦多學習,儲存些認知老本(Cognitive Reserve),老時即使得到阿茲海默症,發病期也晚些。一項二百個失智老人的實驗顯示雙語者病徵初出現年齡為七十七.七歲,而單語者為七十二.六歲,確診平均年齡雙語者八十.八歲,單語者七十六.五歲。人活著不是只有做生意賺錢而已,最主要還是把自己的理想和抱負發展出來,這兩者需要大腦的認知功能去完成它。

(作者為中央大學認知神經科學研究所講座教授)

 

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How to Stop Trumps Trade War Madness?

The New York Times Aug 15, 2019

accessed Aug 15, 2019

 

美國華府喬治城大學法學院教授,也是國務院重要諮詢機構和外交事務的出版機構 Council on Foreign Affairs資深研究員的Jennifer Hilman指出美國國會有憲法裡規定的權力限制川普總統輕率的中國貿易戰政策。

她點出國會可採取三項步驟停止這"貿易戰瘋狂"

 

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忍辱訣

Accessed July 15, 2019

忍辱訣

林中斌 2019715

 

不鑽胯下過,焉登拜將台 (1)

不嚐吳王穢,焉雪越國恥 (2)

不服圮(pi3)上叱,焉建留侯功 (3)

不忍辱中辱,焉為人上人。

 

緣起:

數日前,一位在下敬重但他選擇匿名的智者有所感而在臉書上分享他的經驗:

「…我年輕時也不太聽別人的意見。

如今,閱歷漸多,發現不論對年輕人或中老年人,真正有用的意見,都不好聽,有時甚至很刺耳。

所謂忠言逆耳,大多數人都聽不進去。

網路上很多人講過,受學生歡迎的大學教師,是會講笑話聊八卦,跟學生打成一片的老師。真正認真教學、訂出標準、要求學生的老師,反而被幹譙。

高度智慧的人,懂得從別人的經驗學習;

退而求其次的聰明人,懂得從自己的經驗學習;

至於大多數普通人,則是連自己的錯誤經驗,都得不到教訓,甚至別人再三提醒,還是不肯面對真正的問題。」

 

明知,不會討好,在下還是決定提供自己的經驗給年輕朋友們參考。

林中斌

 

附註

1.秦末,韓信微時,受欺於流氓,有生命危險。韓審度情勢,屈從流氓指示,鑽其跨下而過。後受劉邦築高台拜將,所向無敵,為漢高祖定天下,成就不世之功勳。

2. 越王勾踐,敗於吳王夫差,國滅受俘。勾踐以下奴身份伺奉新主,必恭必敬,以消其疑惑。甚至親嚐吳王糞便,協助御醫治癒吳王之疾。吳王終於信任勾踐,縱其歸越。勾踐臥薪嘗膽,十年生聚,十年教訓,舉兵伐吳。夫差兵敗自刎而亡。勾踐一雪滅國之恥。

3. 秦始皇滅六國統一天下。張良為韓國宰相之子,密謀以力士擲重錐刺殺秦始皇,事敗隱姓埋名以避追捕。一日在下邳過橋時,有老者故意拋其鞋於橋下,呵叱張良下橋撿起,又令張良服侍穿上。之後,此圮上老人令張良數日後清晨來橋上。數次晚到之後,張良才早到等候。圮上老人秘傳其兵書,教導之。張良日後運籌帷幄輔佐劉邦建立漢朝數百年之基業。其他功臣遭忌,被斬被關,惟張良全身而退,被封留侯,安享天年,祿傳子孫。

 

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Stay the Course on China: An Open Letter to President Trump

Journal of Political Risk  July 18, 2019

Accessed July 19, 2019

Stay the Course on China: An Open Letter to President Trump

Journal of Political Risk July 18, 2019

http://www.jpolrisk.com/stay-the-course-on-china-an-open-letter-to-president-trump/

針對上週華盛頓郵報彙集100位美國的中國事物的學者、外交官建議川普勿把中國當敵人,這份名單提醒川普勿改變目前以中國為威脅的政策。

-- 這份名單裡大多數是美國軍人、情報專家、之前所謂“藍隊”的反中挺台美國學者、少數的民運和宗教人士。

-- 後者包括好友June Dryer 金德芳教授,35年前在 華府喬治城大學的學生現在名教授Toshi Yoshihara,敬重的臺大教授明居正等。

-- 可以說,美國的中國專家對華政策呈現分裂態勢。尚不能說美國兩黨一致反中。學術界、外交界、企業界不贊成以中國為永久敵人。軍情界及研究軍事、少數民族、宗教問題的學者不贊成川普改變目抗中政策。

 

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"China is Not an Enemy" 

Washington Post July 3, 2019

Accessed July 4, 2019

"China is Not an Enemy" Washington Post July 3, 2019

●簽名的百位學者幾乎是美國研究中國的學者和擔任中國政策的文武官員和企業界顧問的「人物大全」名人冊。

The list of signatures at the end of the seven-point petitions is almost "Who is who" of scholars, government officials (both foreign service and defense department officers), and business world consultants in the U.S.

●在下數十年接觸的美方中國問題所有關鍵人物幾乎都在內。官員包括如共和黨的Douglas Paal 民主黨的Richard Bush。軍方的Dennis Blasko, 商界的Ian Bremmer

●明顯不在內的有友台的Kurt Campbell 他在 20183月的Foreign Affairs發起質疑數十年華府已交往為主的中國政策的大辯論。他的博士似乎屬國際關係而非中國研究。還有長年駐北京的洛杉磯時報名記者Jim Mann。當然還有現在為川普總統依重的Michael Pillsbury白邦瑞。三位在下都認識,後二者可稱是好友。

 

-- Knowledgeable China experts in the U.S. do not support the zero-sum China policy under president Trump.

-- The popular notion in the U.S. that both Republican and Democratic parties are joined by China-bashing may not be blanketedly accurate.

 

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一項新聞 兩篇報導

《自由時報》2019726A8

《聯合報》2019726A14

Accessed July 26, 2019

一項新聞 兩種報導

 

一項新聞,兩家媒體,報導內容,一疏一密。時代推進,特質轉換,歷史寡情,悲嘆何用?

 

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美情報總監下台 川普鐵粉接班

《聯合報》2019730A12

Accessed July 30, 2019

兩點觀察 Two observations

●川普團隊的外交政策自我扞格。

川普手下的職業軍人和情報官比他自己更務實的觀察國際局勢。例如,他們認為北韓不會自毀核子武器,而他認為北韓將要自毀核子武器。

另外一例,由白邦瑞提出。川普手下很多人認為中國是邪惡的敵人,而川普不認為如此,否則她孫女為何三歲就學中文唱中國歌?當選總統前,川普一心一意要去中國賺大錢。白邦瑞說,川普只是不想看到中國超越美國成世界首強。

The Trump team has exhibited its cognitive dissonance in foreign policy with the professional soldiers and intelligence officers being the more realistic and even more hawkish on one side and the President himself being the less realistic and sometimes the less hawkish on the other side.

For example, the professionals have observed that North Korea will not abandon its nuclear weapons while Trump has indicated that North Korea will do so.

Dr. Michael Pillsbury indicated on July 25 that President Trump did not view China as enemy as many of advisors did. Pillsbury revealed that Trump just was concerned that China might replace the U.S. as the world's leader.

●台灣兩報國際新聞表現又再易位。https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2568702356494498&id=100000642779020

兩家媒體,一項新聞,內容對比,一疏一密。品質翻轉,不過四日。

20190730 美情報總監下台 川普鐵粉接班.jpg

20190730 眼中釘下月離職 川普擇定新情報首長.jpg

20190728 阻陸崛起 美不惜退出貿易談判.jpg

 

 

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Trump Struggles to Achieve 3 Percent Economic Goal as Growth Slows

Washington Post July 26, 2019

Accessed July 28, 2019

美國第二季度GDP 成長2.1%, 由第一季度3.1%下降。這是美國商務部美國時間週五7/26公佈的。

-- 川普要維持2019成長3%現在不確定了。

-- 他原先怪歐巴馬是唯一未達成3%的總統。現在他語氣緩和下來。

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/26/trump-promised-percent-or-better-economy-so-far-its-not-happening/

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The Coming Economic CrashAnd How to Stop It

Elizabeth Warren

Accessed July 24, 2019

2008金融危機之前,美國現任參議員華倫當時是哈佛大學教授, 曾在 2003, 2004, 2005 警告經濟危機將要到來。

 

2019.7.22她發表文章警告:經濟衰退將要在2020年底或2021年到來。

 

目前不利的跡象有三

-- 家庭債務上升

-- 公司債務上升

-- 製造業衰退

 

最近訪問300位企業經濟家,3/4認為經濟衰退將於2021年底前到來,1/2認為2020年底前到來。

 

已經有人批評她如此說是為了減低川普的聲勢,增加民主黨挑戰川普的力度。但她之前預言2008金融危機讓人不得不聽她現在的警告及建議。

 

至少這是個勇敢的賭博。到明年年底,若經濟仍然旺盛 ,她的選舉將垮的很慘; 若經濟果如她所說,她聲勢將大增。

 

The Coming Economic Crash — And How to Stop It

Jul 22, 2019

By Elizabeth Warren

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/the-coming-economic-crash-and-how-to-stop-it-355703da148b

I warned about an economic crash years before the 2008 crisis, but the people in power wouldn’t listen. Now I’m seeing serious warning signs in the economy again — and I’m calling on regulators and Congress to act before another crisis costs America’s families their homes, jobs, and savings.

I’ve spent most of my career getting to the bottom of what’s happening to working families in America. And when I saw the seeds of the 2008 crisis growing, I rang the alarm as loud as I could.

In 2003, I called out subprime lenders for tricking unsuspecting families — especially families of color — into refinancing into overpriced subprime mortgages. In 2004 and 2005, I warned that families were getting deeper into debt and hanging on only by borrowing against their homes, which put them in a vulnerable position if costs rose or a family member lost a job. In2006, I flagged that foreclosure rates were starting to go up, but that the mortgage lenders were still churning out loans because they had passed on the risk of defaults to investors in the form of mortgage-backed securities. Those trends — shady subprime lending, rising household debt, a mortgage market where lenders didn’t bear the risk of their loans — set the stage for the 2008 crisis.

But the people with the power to stop the crisis didn’t listen — not enough of them anyway. Not the banks, not Alan Greenspan or other federal regulators, not Congress. And when the crisis hit in 2008, working families lost it all while the big banks that broke the economy got a fat taxpayer bailout.

When I look at the economy today, I see a lot to worry about again. I see a manufacturing sector in recession. I see a precarious economy that is built on debt — both household debt and corporate debt — and that is vulnerable to shocks. And I see a number of serious shocks on the horizon that could cause our economy’s shaky foundation to crumble.

Our Precarious Economy

Household debt. A generation of stagnant wages and rising costs for basics like housing, child care, and education have forced American families to take on more debt than ever before. The student debt load has “more than doubled since the financial crisis. American credit card debt matches its 2008 peak. Auto loan debt is the highest it has ever been since we started tracking it nearly 20 years ago, and a record 7 million Americans are behind on their auto loans — many of which have similar abusive characteristics as pre-crash subprime mortgages. 71 million American adults — more than 30% of the adults in the country — already have debts in collection. Families may be able to afford these debt payments now, but an increase in interest rates or a slowdown in income could plunge families over a cliff.

Corporate debt. Corporations are also deeply in debt. Leveraged lending — lending to companies that are already seriously in debt — has jumped by40% since Trump took office, spreading “systemic risk” throughout our financial system. These high-risk loans now make up a quarter of all American business loans, and they look a lot like the pre-2008 subprime mortgages: poorly-underwritten loans with minimal protections that are then packaged and sold to investors. I’ve warned regulators about my concerns — which experts share — but their tepid response shows they haven’t learned the lessons of the last crisis.

Manufacturing recession. Despite Trump’s promises of a manufacturing “renaissance,” the country is now in a manufacturing recession. The Federal Reserve just reported that the manufacturing sector had a second straight quarter of decline, falling below Wall Street’s expectations. And for the first time ever, the average hourly wage for manufacturing workers has dropped below the national average.

The country’s economic foundation is fragile. A single shock could bring it all down. And the Trump Administration’s reckless behavior is increasing the odds of just such a shock.

The administration may breach the debt ceiling in September, leading to economic turmoil that top economists say would be “more catastrophic” than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Trump’s trade war with China threatens American manufacturing and has already hurt American companies that investors think of as “industry bellwethers,” while feedingan all-time economic slowdown in China that could have dramatic ripple effects on the American economy. And Trump is goading the U.K. toward a no-deal Brexit, which even his own administration acknowledges would have “immediate and significant spillover effects” to our economy.

The financial markets agree that there is a serious risk of downturn in the near future. The U.S. Treasury yield curve — a barometer for market confidence — normally slopes upwards because investors demand higher yields for bonds with longer maturities. But this March, it inverted for the first time since 2007, signaling that investors are so worried that things are going to get worse that they’d rather lock in lower rates for the future today than risk long-term rates going even lower. The curve has inverted before each and every recession in the past half century — with only one false signal.

And experts agree. In a recent survey of nearly 300 business economists, three-quarters expect a recession by the end of 2021 — with more than half thinking it’ll come by the end of 2020.

Stopping the Next Downturn

The good news is that we have the chance to head off a crisis — just like we had a chance to head off the 2008 crisis — if we take bold action now to address the underlying problems in the economy:

Reduce household debt: To put our economy — and our families — on firmer ground, it is essential to reduce household debt both by raising people’s wages and by bringing down their costs. That is the heart of my economic agenda. We can raise incomes by increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour, strengthening unions, ensuring that women of color get the wages they deserve, and empowering workers to elect at least 40% of board members at big American corporations. We can reduce costs and slash household debt by cancelling up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 95% of people who have it, bringing down the cost of rent, providing universal affordable child care and early education for all our kids ages 0–5, and making tuition free at every public technical school, two-year college, and four-year college.

Monitor and reduce leveraged corporate lending: In response to the 2008 crisis, Congress created the Financial Stability Oversight Council — made up of the heads of the financial regulatory agencies — to monitor risks that cut across different markets. The risks of leveraged lending are exactly the kind of thing FSOC is supposed to monitor, but the Trump-era FSOC is falling down on the job. It should meet specifically to discuss these risks and announce a plan for addressing them. Federal regulators should also enforce leveraged lending guidance that is intended to stop banks from issuing these risky loans in the first place.

Strengthen manufacturing: We need policies that reverse the manufacturing job losses of the past twenty years by investing in manufacturing instead of undercutting it. My Green Manufacturing Planwill mobilize our industrial base by making a $2 trillion investment in American green research, manufacturing, and exporting over the next decade. This will create more than a million high-quality jobs and help address the existential threat of climate change.

Limit potential shocks to the economy: With a vulnerable economy, we should be reducing the odds of potential shocks that could push us into a downturn. The Trump Administration should stop pushing for a no-deal Brexit and start planning for how to insulate the American economy if that occurs. It should replace the trade-war-by-tweet with China with a coherent strategy — working with our allies — to respond to China’s trade tactics. We need to invest in strengthening critical American industries, instead of undercutting American companies. And we should take the prospect of breaching the debt ceiling off the table forever by either eliminating it or by automatically raising the ceiling to accommodate spending and revenue decisions authorized by Congress.

Warning lights are flashing. Whether it’s this year or next year, the odds of another economic downturn are high — and growing. Congress and regulators should act immediately to tamp down these threats before it’s too late.

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夫人將軍 (Madame General)

Accessed July 22, 2019

夫人將軍 (Madame General)
《經濟學人》 2019.7.6 27&28
美軍40步兵師成立於1917,歷經百戰,過去31位彪悍師長的傳承至今年629日交給慧秀堅毅的蘿拉耶葛少將。
今年54歲的夫人將軍曾任戰地黑鷹駕駛是美國史上第一位女師長。
少將通常指揮一萬士兵。耶葛少將統御4個四千多人的戰鬥旅,總數超過一萬六。
她出身大學預備軍官,1980年代從軍時,女人不准開坦克車、參加任何戰鬥任務。
●2000年之前,加拿大是唯一准許女人參加戰鬥單位的北約國家。美國要等到2013年歐巴馬總統才批准跟進。
●1973年美軍只有4.2% 女性;2017年比例增加至18.4%
●1997年蘭德公司調查結果是:女性進入軍隊並沒有降低戰備、團結、和士氣。

林中斌 試摘譯 2019.7.22
敬請賜教

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22強國譴責中國 促關新疆集中營

《自由時報》2019712A9版

Accessed July 14, 2019

22強國譴責中國 促關新疆集中營

《自由時報》2019712A9

712日新聞有3特點:

-- 是重要事件,引發後續對立事件(713日,37國聯合發表相反看法的聯合信,亦要求聯合國納入記錄)

-- 此重要事件為自由時報712日紙本報導,其他台灣大報紙本似乎忽略。

-- 自由時報之標題不無反中挺美之語氣,但內容7段中兩段似乎相反。其一轉載挺中環球時報申訴要點。其二報導先前譴責中國的土耳其總統最近挺中言論。

 

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The Hidden Troubles of the F-35

exclusively obtained documents show evidence of a program grappling with serious technical problems

Defense News June 17, 2019

Accessed July 15, 2019

 

The Hidden Troubles of the F-35 exclusively obtained documents show evidence of a program grappling with serious technical problems

國防新聞(Defense News) 2019.6.17 132/33:

"過去幾年,美國防部主管指出對F35戰機各種關切,先是技術問題,然後是價格和維 修成本太高。

但是實際狀況更糟。最近國防新聞所獲資料現示:戰機有嚴重缺陷(category 1-A deficiencies),如果不修正駕駛安全都不保...駕駛艙壓力突變引起耳朵和鼻竇尖銳的刺痛...頭盔及夜視照相機的瑕疵增加降落在航母的困難..."

 

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Supersonic Speeds Could Cause Big Problems for the F-35's Stealth Coating

Defense News June 17, 2019

Accessed July 15, 2019

Supersonic Speeds Could Cause Big Problems for the F-35's Stealth Coating

國防新聞(Defense News) 2019.6.1720:
在極端高度,美國海軍及陸戰隊用的F-35戰機只能在有限時間內飛超音速,否則會傷害機身構造及隱身的塗料。
這項缺陷在201112月測試時已發現。

 

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