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金習會的潛因

★這篇花了10(4/14/10)才定稿。第11天刊出。

★資料太多,如何篩選?

要寫的淺見不少,如何取捨?

有價值也有爭議的訊息,如何處理?

★是學習的機會。

原來不知道金正恩啟動朝鮮經濟改革備受元老阻礙,必須秘密推動。

原來不知道金正恩經改斐然有成,倫敦經濟學人看好朝鮮將成亞洲最快成長的經濟體。

 

敬請賜正。

林中斌 2018.4.11

金習會的潛因

林中斌

名人堂稿件

日期:20180401/5/10 本文字數:1100 目標字數:1100

 

金正恩再度震撼全球。

之前,他頻繁試爆核彈,成功試射可轟美國本土的洲際飛彈。他曾罵中國 “千年宿敵”(今年一月底)及 “妨礙統一的無恥國家”。三月廿七日,他竟然笑容滿面在北京握住習近平的手宣布支持「朝鮮半島無核化」。

頓時,朝鮮上空的核戰烏雲豁然散去。同時,專家們迅速修正北京被兩韓二月以來熱絡互動邊緣化的看法。

金習會雖意外,其來也有自。

●金炫核武以救經濟:陪伴金成長的御廚藤本健二回憶:幼年的金同情窮苦國民,主張向中國學習改革開放提升經濟。一三年四月脫北者張振成在《紐約時報》透露:北韓農村改革已有成,地下經濟蓬勃。同年五月,南韓國民大學俄籍教授Andrei Lankov出書The Real North Korea說金氏王朝雖獨裁卻極端理性,長於製造危機以獲取外交讓步和經濟利益。一六年四月, 藤本又見金氏,轉述他坦言無意發動戰爭,但美國對他粗暴,他才不斷發射飛彈想證實北韓不是好欺負的。核武是金保障朝鮮生存和提升經濟的籌碼。

●北京轉挺兩韓統一:之前態度模糊的北京在習上台後開始轉變。考量可能有三:兩韓統一將削弱美國駐軍東北亞的正當性。因為一九五○年六月北韓侵入南韓引發美軍介入以至於今。一四年底在首爾,中國國防大學鹿音上校表示,中國希望看到兩韓統一,「這符合中國的利益…可避免來自外部(指美國?)的威脅。」此外,北京支持兩韓統一可免除與它主張兩岸統一之矛盾。再者,統一韓國更依重中國,因經濟將被北韓拖累十年(兩德統一經驗)。有別於美國,北京挺半島統一,有利它斡旋兩韓。

●中朝密洽半島非核:表面上,雙方關係緊繃,其實不全然。去年十一月十九日金氏甚至拒見習近平特使宋濤。但金氏在金習會前數月已開始鋪陳見習的條件。核爆共六次的朝鮮在去年九月三日後嘎然而止。金氏去年密集試射飛彈十六次,二月至八月每月一至三次,而中共舉行十九的十月前後,他停止飛彈試射三個月整,直至十一月廿八日再射一次後也全停。金習會前,他已「禁核」近四個月。去年九月十一日,北京在國際壓力下參與聯合國制裁朝鮮的決議,但設法減輕懲罰力度。之後,北京極可能啟動自己軟硬兩手的制金措施,一方面保證捍衛朝鮮主權領土的完整、促進其經貿發展、二方面要求朝鮮不必立即放棄核武但要保持克制,否則將針對朝鮮領導及相關家族成員實施懲罰應對措施(有爭議但符合北京思維的外洩密件)。中朝雙方在今年二月前應已獲共識:朝鮮克制核武發展,北京支持兩韓統一。

 

合理的推測是:

●去年十二月十五日,南韓總統文在寅訪華見習近平時談及他與朝鮮互動之意願。文不說習也會問,因為文祖籍朝鮮,他政治導師盧武鉉致力與朝鮮和解。習應告文,中國支持兩韓統一。

●今年二月平昌冬季奧運,兩韓友好互動。全球反應熱烈,而北京出奇安靜。因為南北韓已各自私下照會中國。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長

 

 

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金正恩要求見習近平

 

-- 金習會是金採取主動的。這與金自2017.9.3金正日最後一次核爆後便努力以自我克制的行為鋪陳見習之條件是一致的。
-- 金正恩26日在北京對習近平致答詞:"...欣然接收朝方訪華建議..."(請見所貼的剪報)
--
之前主流看法:"北京在南北韓二月熱烈互動後被邊緣化,於是主動邀金訪中"是誤判。
-- 以下剪報來自 江迅,"美朝峰會北京角色"亞洲週刊 2018.4.1522

林中斌 2018.4.12

 

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十九大後習近平對台:軟手為攻,硬手為守,意在「改變台灣民意」

林中斌口述 辜樹仁整理 March 30, 2018

https://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/70/article/6740

accessed March 30, 2018

這是三月初向天下雜誌口述的淺見,並經天下資深研究員辜樹仁先生潤色後的文字。敬請賜教。

林中斌 2018.4.1

談到中共對台工作,「兩手策略」是自2004年胡錦濤時期至今日習近平主政不變的方式。2005130日《自由時報》登載在下所說:北京對台「對官方更硬、對民間更軟」。之後,「軟的更軟,硬的更硬」說法開始流行。

2008年馬英九就任台灣總統,北京兩手策略調為「軟多於硬」。2016年蔡英文就任總統,北京停止與台北官方互動,其兩手策略轉為「硬多於軟」。去年10月十九大後,北京兩手策略一度是軟硬同時加強,但是今年春年節前修改為「軟手為主,硬手為輔」。這方式挾帶北京原有思維「軟手促統,硬手防獨」,將成為此後北京對台策略的特色:「軟手為攻,硬手為守」。

時至今日,北京考量的是硬手效用已經飽和,再多反而適得其反;而軟手效用開始在台灣民調中浮現,方興未艾,大有可為。未來,硬的一手不會消失,但成為底線;而軟的一手力度會提昇,方式多樣化,手腕更靈活。軟手可以在阻力最小的方式下達到北京統一的目的,而硬手不能。大約在2006年後,北京已意識到「買台灣比打台灣便宜」。習近平所瞄準最後目標應該是:「心靈契合」式兩岸的整合。

多樣化的軟手策略

軟手多樣化到什麼程度?舉例來說,一位導遊朋友今年2月告訴我,從去年12月開始,在台北、宜蘭與桃園都出現穿著制服的中國大陸小學生團隊。他們來台灣不僅觀光,也和台灣的小學生交流。

如果對岸計畫性地送小學生來交流,那就有趣了。他們推動兩岸學生交流,已經從大學生做到中學生,又再向下擴展到小學生。如果來台交流的是小學五年級的兒童,到了2049年中華人民共和國建國百年,他們就是40歲出頭的中壯年,有可能是政府,或是其他領域的中階領導幹部。他們的「老朋友」在台灣也漸露頭角。北京在兩岸工作上,想得何其長遠!

 

其他的軟手段,台灣的媒體都有報導。例如吸引台灣年輕學者到中國大陸的大學任教。去年10月,福建省就傳出計畫在3年內引進1,000名台灣的大學教師到福建任教。12月,還宣稱要提供首次登陸到福建的台灣人每人3,000人民幣補貼,到福建的台灣創業團隊則提供百萬人民幣獎勵金。

 

再早些,還有中國國務院在2015年宣布的「大眾創業、萬眾創新」計畫,成立400億人民幣規模的國家級創業基金,以及在各省市設立青創基地,其中一部份是要吸引740萬台灣年輕人到中國大陸創業。2016年底,已有入駐台資1,200家,6,000台灣青年在當地就業。

 

這計畫,很可能是在2014年台灣發生太陽花學運後,北京檢討對台工作之後做出的決定。

 

另外還有開放台灣人出任中國大陸的公職。將來可能會在已開放12個省市台灣居民可在大專院校和公立醫院等事業單位就業的基礎上,全面開放31個省市。

 

十九大時,習近平宣佈要提供台灣人「與大陸同胞同等的待遇」,和「分享大陸發展的機遇」。到了228日,國台辦就宣佈了「31項惠台措施」,提供赴大陸工作投資的台灣人在31個領域中的發展機會和同等待遇。

這些都是北京對台工作中軟的那一手。在十九大以後,快速推出。

台灣民意已經出現改變徵兆

那麼,北京對台「軟手為主」的目的何在?很清楚,就是要改變台灣的基本盤:民意。因為台灣是民主政體,若民意改變不斷擴大,政府目前保守的兩岸政策不調整也很難。若人民選擇赴對岸就業求學,政府若禁止也不易。

 

近來台灣內部的民調顯示:我們長期對兩岸關係的民意趨勢,已經開始逆轉,雖然尚未到達臨界點,但是不容忽視。

 

在《天下雜誌》今年12日公佈的國情調查中,回答自己是「台灣人」的比例,雖然仍遠高於其他身份認同,但卻創2014年以來的新低,從59.4%下降到56.4%。回答自己是「台灣人,也是中國人」的比例,從2015年的28.2%上升到今年的34.1%,同樣是2014年以來的新高。

 

在統獨傾向方面,回答「在一定條件下統一」的比例,創近10年來新高,達到13.8%,比前一年增加5.6%。回答「台灣獨立,但與大陸維持和平關係」及「不管如何台灣盡快獨立」,則從上一次調查的37.2%降到32%。

 

去年1120日《聯合報》的民調結果類似。主張「永遠維持現狀」的比例,從47%上升到49%,仍是主流。但主張急獨和緩獨的比例,卻從去年31%大幅下降到24%,創2010年以來最低。緩統和急統比例,則從去年17%,上升到20%。

 

《遠見雜誌》今年212日發表的民調結果顯示,贊成獨立的比例創10年新低,支持統一的比例,則是10年新高。

 

還有一些更發人深省的民調,是由前民進黨官員游盈隆博士成立的「台灣民意基金會」所做的。去年1231日,他公佈的領導人「感情溫度計」民調(請問您對他/她有無好感?)結果顯示:中共總書記習近平的分數51.5%,竟然比自家總統蔡英文的46.9%高近5個百分點。

 

台灣民意基金會所做其他的民調,在綠營中也引起震撼。去年814日公布的民調顯示,台灣人認同和20165月調查比較,下降了8.8個百分點到72%,中國人認同上升2.5個百分點,雙重認同也上升了4.5個百分點。今年319日公布民調結果顯示:支持台灣獨立的人從2016年的51.2%,一路下滑到20183月的38.3%,減少了12.9個百分點。

 

另外一項未獲廣泛注意的改變是,過去親綠的媒體或學者,常批評他們眼中的統媒民調,認為有偏見。但對近數月的民調,他們沒批評,反而重視且憂心。這是嶄新的現象。這裡舉兩個例子:

 

《自由時報》20171122日社論中,有幾句話是該報前所未有的論調。例如「……本國的民主自由人權,無助於企業對外開拓……」,不同於過去認為民主自由戰勝一切的看法。此外,「令人遺憾是,當台灣人民以融入普世價值為榮之際,先進國家卻已琵琶別抱中國的市場與工廠……」。最後一段,「……本土政權執政,台灣人認同反顯衰退……」。

 

《自由時報》去年116日,美國伊利諾州立大學教授、北美台灣人教授協會會長李中志的投書,比較西班牙加泰隆尼亞地區去年的獨立運動和台灣面臨的困境,有幾句話值得咀嚼。例如,「……台灣的國族論述已漸漸被維持現狀的『政治正確』與『兩岸一家親』的鹹濕口水淹沒……可能讓我們對台灣人的認同其實尚未鞏固的事實,失去警覺……純粹的台灣人認同自2014年達到高點以來,3年之間已經掉了4個百分點,而雙重認同則增加了4個百分點,這不是警訊嗎?」顯示綠營菁英已經正視最近民意的變化。

 

還有最後一句,「加獨不只是一齣鬧劇,它還是一面鏡子,如果漸漸地多數的台灣人希望成為中國的自治區,那麼也只能這樣了。」這是以前在《自由時報》從沒看過的論調。

 

我們正在看到一個台灣人民對兩岸看法快速演變的學習曲線,台灣民意正在朝向現實方向演變。我曾說過,台灣內部因為學習曲線還未走完,所以很難形成內部共識。現在出現變化了。

 

這個變化趨勢,北京可能早就掌握。

 

中國大陸一所成立於1980年初期的台灣研究機構,我曾經問它的創辦人:「您如何對每次台灣總統選舉結果都掌握如此精準?」他告訴我,他們在台灣廣結善緣,而且長期隔海峽打電話用閩南語和國語對台灣做民調。習近平上台兩年後,就開始零星的試點推出對台灣軟手策略,效果如何?北京應透過這台灣研究機構早已掌握到。

 

過去半年,台灣自己民調公佈兩岸指標的逆轉,進一步讓北京驗證他們之前探試性的小規模軟手策略是有效的。料想中,他們在十九大之前應已著手規劃大規模、全方位、多樣化的軟手策略。雖然今年2月才推出「31項惠台措施」,其內部決策和規劃早應已開始,而於十九大之後全力推動。

 

北京目前對台兩手策略的特徵為何?

軟手措施完全操之在北京,其目的在「促統」。其作法擺脫了胡錦濤時代透過台灣官員施惠給台灣果農、漁民等對象的作法,也免除了養肥兩岸「買辦」人士而台灣人民無感的弊病。吸引交往台灣未來主人翁(青少年兒童),並爭取他們的認同;禮遇在台灣受挫的族群,如軍公教人員等;優惠台灣高科技創業青年;僑外辦積極協助海外遇險遭難的台灣人民;主動以海上力量支援受他國驅趕的台灣漁船。

 

硬手措施以無言的行動施壓台灣,避免誇張式恫嚇,北京甚至可否認施壓意圖,讓台灣「啞子吃黃蓮」般的感受追求獨立的困難。其「防獨」目的是舊的,但做法是新的。例如:

 

.軍機軍艦繞台,北京說是例行性演練,不針對任何一方。

 

.去年6月北京與巴拿馬建交,北京可說是被動接受巴國等待已久的請求。

 

.北京官員儀式性的反獨申明,是延續多年的例行性操作。

 

.杯葛台灣國際場合活動空間,和限縮台灣與非邦交國交往的措施,自2016年蔡總統就任後已明顯加強,但不是十九大後新的做法。前者有2017後封殺台灣參與世界衛生大會。後者包括最近客委會到模里西斯舉辦美食展遭打壓,中華民國駐巴布亞紐幾內亞商務代表團被迫改名、外交車牌被收回。

 

.針對性攻台軍事演習雖然曾於20157月遠離台海,在內陸朱日和訓練基地舉行。但蔡總統就任後此類演習未曾舉行。

 

北京對台策略在十九大後一度軟硬同時加強。但到了今年農曆春節前,硬的一手在媒體上轉為低調。軍機軍艦繞台,並未停止,但解放軍發言人不提。

 

中南海應已經曉得,硬手效用已達飽和,其邊際效用開始遞減,而且施壓蔡英文承認「九二共識」沒用。

 

中南海高層感激蔡英文?重批獨,少批蔡

何以見得?

 

2016321日蔡英文就任總統前,有立委透露,國安單位研判北京對台灣將是「重批獨,少批蔡」。從2016年到現在,北京應已了解,蔡英文並非自草根基層崛起的本土政治人物,她在派系林立的民進黨裡不能夠一言九鼎。她在兩岸關係上謀求穩定的言行,已經是她的最大的政治極限。超過極限等於政治自殺。北京應該已感受到蔡英文的確沒有給他們製造麻煩。

 

2017106日,澳門的《新華澳報》兩岸問題資深記者林昶在評論中寫道,「……就在蔡英文上台後的這段時間內,習近平要面對的困難不少,包括內部的軍改、打貪,應對幾隻能量極大的大老虎;對外的南海仲裁、釣魚島、朝核等問題。蔡英文實行『不挑釁、不刺激、零意外』,沒有給對岸增添麻煩,使得北京高層可以中精力處理各種問題……直到現在,包括習近平在內的高層,尚未有直接點名批評蔡英文……」林昶曾私下對我說,習近平對蔡英文,「甚至是感激的」。

 

所謂沒添麻煩,包括了20172月,美國國防部長表示釣魚台適用《美日安保條約》,17日當時外交部長李大維公開說,「釣魚台是中華民國的領土。」這是重視台灣和日本關係的民進黨政府從未表達過的立場。322日,前陸委會主委張小月在立法院答詢時表示,根據大法官會議解釋:「兩岸協議非國際協定。」原屬國民黨政府的李大維和張小月都是蔡英文力排眾議任命的閣員,他們敏感性的發言不可能沒有蔡授權。

 

325日,台日斷交後最高層日本官員總務副大臣赤間二郎(相當於台灣內政部副部長)訪台,但蔡英文迴避接見。對於是否允許達賴喇嘛訪台,總統府也很低調。這些點點滴滴的事例,就是林昶所說的蔡英文「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」。

 

當然,中南海之下,國台辦、某些涉台學者、退休將領,有時會論調強硬。但這些論調不代表中南海高層的長遠戰略思維,而是作為戰術上遏抑台獨與內部宣傳的作用。

 

北京目前的企圖已很明顯,就是耕耘民主台灣的基本盤:用軟的一手,改變台灣的民意。在台灣這邊,從蔡英文今年春節後調整外交、國安與兩岸人事佈局也可看出,兩岸政策應該會轉向務實。

 

蔡政府調整國安兩岸人事 政策更趨務實?

最重要的是陳明通教授接任陸委會主委。陳水扁執政前,他已去過中國大陸30多次,和對岸涉台學者來往頻繁。我們20002004年在陸委會共事。他曾私下對我表示:未來兩岸最終整合的趨勢很難阻擋。他沒說的是:台灣應該在此大勢之下,爭取最好的地位與安排。

 

另外,外交經驗豐富的李大維調任國安會秘書長,比之前外交部長任內更接近蔡英文總統,讓她更能掌握國際局勢。國際新局勢是什麼?淺見是,整個東亞的權力重心正在向北京轉移。原因是川普總統強調「美國優先」,其實是美國國內優先,盟友如日本已感到要未雨綢繆了。這對中國大陸有利。

 

最明顯的就是美國盟友菲律賓和2011年歐巴馬總統訪問後親美的緬甸,現在都明顯倒向北京。過去幾年在南海爭議上批評過北京的新加坡,20179月總理李顯龍訪問北京後,又回到了和過去一樣在中美之間維持平衡的地位。南韓新總統上任後,積極和北京改善關係,修補美軍部署薩德飛彈後的緊張關係。

 

甚至,最挺美的日本首相安倍晉三,原來杯葛「一帶一路」,也在去年6月後改口表示,日本可以對「一帶一路」戰略有所貢獻。在南亞,印度總理莫迪去年8月下令在中印邊境與中國部隊對峙的駐軍往後撤,隨後以鴿派女性內政部長接替撤換鷹派國防部長,還指示邊防部隊官兵要學會5060句中文。新國防部長在去年108日甚至親自到中印邊境向解放軍合什祝福。

 

這些東亞權力重心轉移的跡象,蔡英文身邊關注國際局勢的專人,應已向她匯報。從1999年李登輝時代規劃「兩國論」的國安會諮詢委員蔡英文,到現在身為總統的近廿年間,我相信她的國際、兩岸、戰略的視野已大為不同。

 

蔡總統應會同意陳明通主委的認知,就是要在不可抗拒的大趨勢下,給台灣謀求最好的地位與待遇,儘管這些想法都不方便公開講。

 

如果這個假設是正確的,兩岸關係的未來,並不悲觀。甚至如果蔡英文成功連任總統,蔡習會很有可能會發生。

 

台灣更該注意北京的「超軍事手段」 而不是軍事威脅

最後我想強調的是,我們關注兩岸趨勢,切勿忽略北京的「超軍事手段」,也就是前面所說的各種意在改變台灣民意的軟手策略。如果我們只注意北京軍機、軍艦繞台等心理威脅,對台灣長遠的安全幸福沒太大幫助。因為北京沒必要採取代價極高的下策用軍事奪取台灣。它有豐富資源支持經濟、文化、外交等「超軍事手段」達到「不戰統台」的目的。此外,國際趨勢也對北京有利。

 

我們應該多花時間思考如何因應對北京來勢洶洶、而且操之在他的軟手策略。否則,我政府在民主制度下,將如何避免與民意相左,而落於被動?

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The two sides of the mountain

Economist p.39-40 December 23, 2017

https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21732851-maldives-nepal-and-sri-lanka-are-no-longer-meek-they-used-be-india-faces-growing

China has expanded its influence in India’s neighbors including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan in recent years with economic and diplomatic (extra-military) instrument.

This fits the pattern I have characterized since 2004; “dominating East Asia/Eurasia without war”.

北京近年來加強與印度鄰居的關係,包掛斯里蘭卡、尼泊爾、馬爾地夫和不丹。所用的都是超軍事工具

這趨勢正是在下自從2004年起便描寫的北京大戰略:「不戰而主東亞」(現在甚至可稱「不戰而主歐亞」)

China is competing fiercely with India for influence in the subcontinent

 

EARLIER in December Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, said his country "disapproves" of spheres of influence in international affairs. He was speaking in Delhi, India's capital, a fact that underscored a point China is making increasingly clear by other, less diplomatic means: the thing it really disapproves of is India maintaining a sphere of influence.

 

Separated from the rest of Asia by the world's biggest mountains, India is the elephant on its own subcontinent. Leaving aside perennially hostile Pakistan, it has effortlessly dominated smaller neighbours much in the way that America does in the Caribbean: they may grumble and resent their sometimes clumsy big brother, but they have learned to stay out of its way. Lately, however, China's increasingly bold advances are challenging India's sway.

 

Consider the past few weeks. On December 9th Sri Lanka granted a 99-year lease of a strategic port on its southern coast to a company controlled by the Chinese government. The same week an alliance of two communist parties swept parliamentary polls in Nepal; they had campaigned for closer ties with China and more distant ones with India. At the end of November, after a hasty "emergency" session of parliament with no opposition members present, the Maldives became the second South Asian country after Pakistan to ratify a free-trade agreement with China. The low-lying archipelago in the Indian Ocean, which sits beside trade routes along which an estimated 60,000 ships pass every year, has also leased an island to one Chinese firm and awarded big infrastructure projects to others.

 

India has faced challenges in its traditional sphere before, says Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution, an American think-tank. What is different is the scale and speed of China's incursion. Until 2011, for instance, China did not even have an embassy in the Maldivian capital, Male. But after a state visit to the island republic by Xi Jinping, China's president, in 2014--the first by a Chinese leader--military, diplomatic and economic ties have strengthened rapidly. China now holds some 75% of the Maldives' debt, reckons Mohamed Nasheed, an exiled former president.

 

Atoll costs

 

Following the Maldives' sudden free-trade deal with China, India's foreign ministry could only drily intone, "It is our expectation that as a close and friendly neighbour, [the] Maldives will be sensitive to our concerns, in keeping with its 'India First' policy." Rather than reaffirm its commitment to upholding Indian interests, however, the Maldivian government abruptly suspended three local councillors for the sin of meeting with the Indian ambassador without seeking prior permission. In the past the Maldives, with its 400,000 people, would not have dared snub its neighbour of 1.3bn so blatantly. The affront is all the more glaring given that a muscular foreign policy is one of the electoral planks of India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, whose party just won a hard-fought election in his home state of Gujarat.

 

In Nepal, too, the Chinese dragon has advanced swiftly. As long ago as the 1950s its rulers had reached out to China in a bid to counterbalance India, which controlled nearly all access to the landlocked kingdom--as it was then--and was pressing the royal family to allow some democracy. "But all it took to manage Nepal then was a few boxes of whisky," says Constantino Xavier of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, another think-tank.

 

Decades later, when Nepal's king again made overtures to China, India mounted an 18-month economic blockade that ultimately persuaded him not only to shun his northern neighbour but also to allow multiparty elections. When Nepalese Maoists, briefly in government in 2008 following a ten-year civil war, went to China seeking aid, they came away empty-handed. "They were told a mountain has two sides; know which one you are on," says Mr Xavier. In other words, Nepal should recognise Indian dominance.

 

Nepal, now a republic, issued a new constitution in 2015. India saw it as unfair to lowland regions that lie along its border, and so again showed its muscle. But rather than crumple in the face of a new blockade (which was imposed by Nepalese protesters but tacitly backed by India, which still controls nearly all road access), Nepal's wobbly government held its ground. To assert its independence it signed several deals with China. In the just-completed elections this policy paid off handsomely for Nepal's communists, who were able to promise giant Chinese investments in hydropower, roads and the country's first railway. This will run not downhill from Kathmandu, the Nepalese capital, to India, but over the mountains to China.

 

Nepal's ties to India remain extremely strong. Millions of Nepalese work there; it is Nepal's biggest trading partner; and the two countries' armies have historically been tightly bound. But whereas India has counted on this legacy to sustain its influence, China has busied itself with funding scholarships, think-tanks and junkets to China for Nepalese journalists and academics. Back in the 1960s, a Nepalese delegation met Mao Zedong, recalls Mr Xavier. "He told them that only in 50 years, when a train reached from Tibet to Kathmandu, could China match India's influence."

 

India has met China's push with consternation, and the occasional pushback. Quite literally so: over the summer Indian troops crossed onto territory claimed by another small country in India's orbit, Bhutan, to block a road-building incursion by Chinese forces. The intervention did stop China, but has tested India's relations with a country that relies heavily on Indian aid and is such a close ally that it has yet to establish diplomatic relations with its only other neighbour, China. This may have been the intention. China has long been quietly offering to resolve its border disputes with Bhutan through an exchange of territory. India has blocked the idea, for fear that it would strengthen China at a point of military vulnerability for India.

 

In that particular contest India may be a match for China, in determination if not in strength. India's foreign-policy establishment is well aware of its other weaknesses in relation to its northern neighbour and has worked hard to address them. It used to rely on the sheer immensity and harshness of the Himalayas to act as a barrier, and deliberately built no roads that a Chinese invader might use. That has changed: India is furiously struggling to catch up with China's burgeoning and impressive border infrastructure.

 

But retaining an Indian "sphere of influence" remains a tricky task. Aside from the fact that India's economy is only a fifth of China's in size, and that its messy democracy makes policymaking slow and cumbersome, India suffers important institutional constraints. Its entire corps of diplomats amounts to just 770 professionals, compared, for example, with America's 13,500 foreign-service officers. Indian aid to its neighbours has suffered from poor delivery through inefficient public-sector companies. And until recently India has shied away from working with other countries that are equally concerned by China's expansionism. All of this is changing, however. The Indian elephant may be slow to learn, but it is hard to budge.

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西哈努克港市是第二個澳門

亞洲週刊 梁東屏 December 31, 2017

http://www.yzzk.com/cfm/blogger3.cfm?id=1513741210284&author=%E6%A2%81%E6%9D%B1%E5%B1%8F

 

This is another gain of China’s extra-military strategy

這是北京超軍事手段的另一項收穫

西哈努克港市是第二個澳門

20171230日 第3152

中國承諾在柬埔寨投資七十億美元,並大舉開發第二大城市西哈努克港市,要將之建設成「第二個澳門」。中國在柬投資額是美國的三十倍。

 

西哈努克港市:中國發揮巨大影響力

 

在柬埔寨總理洪森的示意下,該國最高法院十一月解散了力量最強大的反對黨「救國黨」。這個舉動引起包括美國在內的西方國家一片撻伐,美國及歐盟都揚言可能對柬埔寨進行制裁,美國也已經發布對柬國高層人員的旅行禁令。只不過柬國並不以為意,洪森甚至高調揚言歡迎美國制裁,因為「美國的援助只是在幫助反對人士進行叛國」,而且「我們有中國的援助,根本就不需要美國」。

 

洪森講的並非氣話,因為他說過那些話之後就去中國訪問了,結果獲得中方七十億美元的投資承諾,為柬埔寨興建高速公路、首都金邊市近郊的衛星城市以及多項教育、娛樂、金融計劃。

 

中國對柬埔寨的投資,具體展現在該國第二大城西哈努克港市。這個曾經一度破敗的城市現在已經開始翻身,迅速發展成為柬埔寨的新經濟中心,甚至於被稱做有望發展成「第二個澳門」。有不少前往投資的中國人都表示西哈努克市就像二十年前的中國,有龐大的商機。

 

西哈努克市是柬國在上世紀六十年代從叢林開發建成,以前任國王西哈努克為名,是柬埔寨第一大港口城市,擁有全國唯一的深水港。西哈努克市曾是柬埔寨精英階層的遊憩樂園,但在紅高棉大屠殺以及七十與八十年代的衝突爆發後逐漸沒落,之後更因為價廉而成為西方背包客青睞的旅遊目的地。

 

然而在中國提出「一帶一路」倡議後,發展商以西哈努克是一帶一路沿線「第一個停靠港」為賣點,當地政府也積極吸引中國投資者而突飛猛進。

 

西哈努克省長永明(Yun Min)曾任軍區司令員,也是洪森的親信,他多次訪問中國,邀請中國投資者前往,並承諾為他們提供保護。他告訴路透社:「我們希望有更多中國人來這裏,我估計西哈努克市的房地產有一半都被中國人租去了,這使得我們大有獲利。」

 

如今,這個人口約二十五萬的城市居住著成千上萬的中國人。市內隨處可見以中文書寫的標誌,當地超級市場也出售大量中國製造的貨品,柬國當地的貨品可能只剩啤酒及瓶裝水了。而且,未來應該還會有更多中國人湧入。

 

從前十分寧靜的獨立海灘,僅僅幾個月內就出現了許多水泥大樓,很多都是賭場、酒店及高級公寓。該市新的藍灣公寓項目負責人形容,西哈努克是「第二個澳門」。這項耗資兩億美元的公寓項目樓高三十八層,至少有七百個單位,當中約百分之二十已售出,售價從十二萬五千美元至五十萬美元不等。

 

當地還不斷有新的高樓大廈建成,未來還將出現更多賭場、酒店以及數以千計的住宅單位。西哈努克國際機場也將擴建,目前百分之七十的國際航線都飛往中國。中國也計劃建造一條從西哈努克至金邊的四線道高速公路,當地鐵路也將在一帶一路計劃下獲得改善。

 

從西哈努克港驅車,很快就能來到西哈努克港經濟特區,這裏現有的一百一十家企業中有百分之九十是中資企業,它們都享有進出口免稅及公司稅假期優惠。

 

美國學者索法爾.埃爾指出,中國在柬埔寨的投資還在持續與擴大。他說:「我們說的是超越其他任何人的訂單規模。他們正在憑藉龐大的數量與規模,擠出其他投資者。」

 

雖然中國目前的投資重點是在西哈努克市,但不可因此而忽略了它對柬國的整體投資。舉例來說,中國到達柬埔寨的遊客居於全球之冠,今年的頭七個月內,共有六十三萬五千人到訪,是到訪總人數的五分之一。柬國希望到二零二零年,每年能有兩百萬中國遊客到訪。

 

中國在二零一二年至一六年對柬投資為四十億美元,是美國的三十倍。去年的對柬投資為兩億六千五百萬美元,是日本的兩倍,美國的四倍。柬國的全國電力幾乎都由中國水壩供電,三分之一的外銷成衣廠是中資。不過,柬國的五十八億美元外債,其中半數是欠中國。

 

柬國也欠中國不少「政治債」。洪森政府早前逮捕反對黨救國黨領袖並解散該黨,為明年大選清除障礙,引起西方國家一致譴責,中國卻對柬埔寨採取行動維持國內秩序的做法表示支持。柬埔寨則投桃報李,在區域議題上支持中方,協助中國在東南亞擴大影響力。中國公司在柬國所擁有的特許,也讓它們控制了三分之一以上的柬國海岸線。

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川金峰會 (紐約時報2018.4.2)

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中美貿易戰

--川普向中國拉開貿易戰序幕: 叫罵示威。

-- 倫敦經濟學人雜誌冷眼看穿。

林中斌 2018.4.3

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僥倖言中
五個月前戰況失利,五個月後情勢逆轉

●20171013日 《聯合報》名人堂 林中斌「王岐山十九大應會留任」
●20171026日中共十九大落幕
●20171028日《聯合報》:「前國防部長林中斌(10)命中率零林中斌曾預估,習近平最依重的王岐山應會留任….
(“中國新核心 調查局猜中一半 國安會狀況外?《聯合報》 20171028)
●2018
317日《中時電子報》: 「習近平全票連任國家主席王岐山當選副主席」

敬請賜教
林中斌 2018.3.17

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南北韓統一潛流逐漸浮現

當南北韓意外的開始正面互動時,全世界都熱鬧的反應時,北京卻出奇的安靜。
當時在下私下與朋友表示: 北京應已知曉南北韓將接觸。文在寅訪中時已告訴習近平與北韓互動之苗頭;而北韓雖表面慍中,私下應已照會北京與南韓接觸之苗頭。
兩三年前有山東某蘇姓?教授公開建議習: 應樂見南北韓統一,否則自我矛盾。。因為南北韓統一與兩岸統一的道理相通。
--201410月底在首爾國際會議中有中國國防大學戰略研究所副研究員鹿音上校表示,中國希望看到同屬一國的、幸福的南北韓國民。(王崑義教授觀察2014.11.4旺報)
在下竊以為尚有其他考量。
兩韓若統一,則美國失去在東亞部署軍力之立場。1950625日北韓侵略南韓,引動美軍介入,以至於今。
也有人說:若南北韓統一,強勁的南韓經濟會被拖累,約有10年。那是根據東西德統一後的經驗。於是,統一後的韓國會更依賴中國,對北京有利。在下以為:這是短視的想法,不足為取。長遠對北京有利的做法應令韓國人樂於與中國為鄰。
以上淺見,敬請賜教。

林中斌 2018.3.27

北韓最高領導人金正恩有可能閃電訪問大陸。日本電視台26日下午拍到抵達北京的北韓列車,這節列車與2011年金正日訪問大陸時搭乘的特別列車極為相似。金正恩此刻若訪北京,被認為是在5月「川金會」前,先與北京進行溝通。

而據丹東當地知情人士透露,金正恩昨下午56點從丹東入境北京,昨丹東火車站及鴨綠江大橋戒備,緊鄰鴨綠江畔的中聯大酒店全部遭到管制,所有入住的旅客全部被清空,飯店緊鄰江邊一側的房間窗戶全部緊閉;金正恩已抵達北京。

以北韓新聞為主的電子媒體《Daily NK Japan26日晚報導,北韓與大陸邊境的丹東被察覺有不尋常動態,丹東車站設置巨大的隔板牆,讓人感受警備森嚴的氣氛,當地人傳說,「北韓黨委員長金正恩來了?」,難道是北京的「特別列車」抵達了嗎?

25日的上午和下午,當地的大陸公安局在車站周邊進行了波紋狀路障的開關演習,到了下午10點還封閉了車站,以及北韓與大陸連接的鴨綠江大橋(道路、鐵路併用橋)。

當地消息人士指出,「從晚間10點起,丹東站就完全關閉,約在20分至40分之間,由21節車廂組成的列車朝瀋陽方向駛去」。

就在這4天前,有人看到似北韓人民軍所屬的船隻在鴨綠江大橋周邊待機。當地消息人士表示,「2011年當時的金正日總書記搭乘的列車經過丹東站時,北韓軍隊也在鴨綠江大橋附近監視。這次的氣氛與當時非常相似。」

金正日2011年訪問大陸8天,便是搭乘火車走從北京出發,經瀋陽、丹東再返回北韓的路線。當時丹東站也是完全封閉,且在鴨綠江大橋周邊也部署了公安和邊防警備隊。

有丹東的市民對這次的情形表示,「聽說因為有北韓高官來,故加強國境的管制」、「25日晚間10點起,警戒更加升級」。至於高官是誰並不清楚,但從北韓出發的特別列車在嚴峻的警戒態勢下的深夜通過,應該是最高層級的高官吧。

在北京也感受到緊張的氣氛。北京的消息人士指出,1周前大陸外交部與駐北京的北韓大使館相關人士舉行罕見的全體會議等,是值得關注的動作。消息人士指,「談的是和以往不同的事,不久之後,應會傳中朝關係改善等好消息。」

如果金正恩訪問大陸的話,與大陸國家主席習近平會談的可能性相當高。

 

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加拿大的川普將竄起政壇

Stephen Marche New York Times March 22, 2018

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/opinion/doug-ford-populism-canada-trump.html

accessed March 22, 2018

加拿大今年67日安大略省選舉極可能出現像川普的新省長Doug Ford。他目前在民調中遙遙領先47% 只有26%的對手。(請見貼在樓上的紐約時報評論 Will Canada Elect a Tin-pot Northern Trump?)

一本心靈書(出版201711月屬系列的第四本)中開悟的老師預言未來世界說:將來會有更多crazy people winning election(p.129)。之前在第一本2002出版書"再見娑婆"(The Disappearance of the Universe )曾說2012.12.21 非世界末日,但會有許多災變。(更重要的是開悟的老師說: 無論發生任何災變,勿忘寬恕:"just be ready to forgive no matter what.")

Toronto — Tell me if you’ve heard this before: The spoiled son of a sprawling business dynasty positions himself as an anti-elite populist. During a pivotal campaign, he brushes off a history of crude remarks as political incorrectness to the delight of his base. Then, running against the establishment of his own party and an evidently more qualified female candidate, he loses the popular vote but manages, by way of an arcane voting system, to take power.

No, I’m not rehashing the victory of President Trump. I’m describing the rise of Canadian politician Doug Ford, who this month was elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, the right-of-center opposition in the country’s most populous province. With his party leading in the polls ahead of a June 7 election, Mr. Ford has a strong chance of becoming premier.

Trumpism, it seems, has migrated north.

Several years before the 2016 United States presidential campaign, Mr. Ford’s brother, the deceased former mayor of Toronto, Rob Ford, more or less invented the politics of boorish, divisive populism the American president has since mastered. Rob Ford figured out as early as 2010 that riding out scandal, while blaming the media and other unspecified “elites,” was a winning political strategy.

Torontonians forgave flaws in his character, appreciated them, even embraced them as signs of authenticity. It didn’t matter to his base that he smoked crack cocaine while in office. The Rob Ford era demonstrated that someone as shameless as Mr. Trump had a shot as a political figure.

Doug Ford is a more serious and self-disciplined version of his bumbling younger brother. He has resisted comparisons between himself and the president, but has also spoken fondly about The Donald. “Absolutely he respects women,” he said of the Republican presidential candidate in 2016. “There’s millions of women that have voted for him. So all those millions of women are dumb? I don’t think so.”

Mr. Ford, while much less addled than his brother was, has also been connected to Toronto’s underbelly, where Rob Ford spent so much of his time as mayor. The Globe and Mail newspaper reported in 2013 that Mr. Ford sold drugs throughout the better part of the 1980s. (He has never been charged and denies the allegations.) Thirty years later, if elected his government would be responsible for implementing Ontario’s new, legal recreational cannabis stores.

Overnight, the election of Mr. Ford crushed the smugness Canadians have been feeling since their prime minister, Justin Trudeau, appointed a cabinet of 50 percent women and became the envy of enlightened progressives the world over. The deep-seated cultural and political alienation at the root of Trump and Brexit is in full force in Canada as well.

Mr. Ford is already a front-runner. One poll has the Progressive Conservatives at 47 percent support and the incumbent Ontario Liberal Party at 26 percent. The latter, having ruled since 2003, has nearly 15 years’ worth of scandal to show for it. Rising inequality across the province, distaste for progressive rhetoric and the sense of a generalized corruption of politics as a whole is fueling, as elsewhere, a populism as inchoate as it is powerful.

And from Italy to the Philippines to Canada, this cannibalizing populism is swallowing traditional Conservatism whole. Mr. Ford snuck through to the leadership on a voting system that ranked ballots. He won neither the popular vote nor the greatest number of constituencies. But the Progressive Conservative machine is behind him already. It operates on inherited loyalties, antipathy against scandal-plagued opponents, time-for-a-change sentiments and basic self-interest.

EDITORS’ PICKS

 

Ideas were probably always somewhat irrelevant, so it hardly matters that the so-called Conservative parties aren’t conservative anymore. Or rather, Conservatism itself has changed. The Conservatism of law and order, of common decency and of fiscal responsibility has been rendered null and void. After the last provincial election, which the Liberals won handily, Mr. Ford, then a Toronto city councilor, prescribed “an enema from top to bottom” for the caucus he just inherited. The effluent is now lapping at his feet.

They may hope to change him. They won’t. Already, Mr. Ford, who has never held a seat in the Legislature, is boasting about a historically large victory in the offing. His bragging has an all-too familiar ring stateside. To stand with Mr. Ford is to express rage — and this rage will take its customary atavistic forms.

The current premier, Kathleen Wynne, the first lesbian elected to the post, introduced a modernized sex-education curriculum to the province’s public school systems. Just days after his election, Mr. Ford pledged to remove it, a policy that has support among some new immigrant communities, who tend to be more socially conservative.

He’s also running the standard Ford playbook. Elites are people who sip “Champagne with their pinkies in the air.” (His family’s label and packaging company is said to make tens of millions in annual sales.)

His infamous brother, when you get right down to it, was only the mayor of Toronto, which is not a very powerful position. Toronto’s “weak mayor” system ensures that its leader only gets one vote on the city council. In Canada, it’s actually the premier of a province who matters. His or her government regulates the schools and the public health care system. Do the people of Ontario really want a tin-pot northern Trump in charge of things that affect their daily lives? Canada’s Constitution calls for “peace, order and good government”; it is hard to imagine anyone who could fulfill that mandate less.

Mr. Ford’s sweep in as quiet and stable a place as Ontario points to a broader global crisis from which apparently there is no escape. Conservatism is no longer a political ideology in the recognized sense, but a repository of loathing and despair. It’s where people thrust their hatred of modernity — of globalism and multiculturalism and technocratic expertise, but also of the democracy that fostered those systems in the first place. By giving high office to buffoons, by choosing thugs as their representatives and by reveling in nastiness for its own sake, the Conservative brand now is principally a marker of contempt for political order itself.

Conservatism has meant many things to many people around the world. Now, just about everywhere, it looks a lot like a raised middle finger; Ford and friends are the latest to salute.

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The Dirty Secret of America Nuclear Arms in Korea

Walter Pincus New York Times March 19, 2018

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/opinion/korea-nuclear-arms-america.html

accessed March 19, 2018

North Korea may be unreliable, but it was America that broke with the Korean armistice by introducing nuclear weapons into South Korea in 1958.
北韓 或許不可靠,然而是美國先破壞 韓戰停戰協定:1958年美國 部署核子武器進南韓。

As President Trump prepares for a possible meeting with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, many Americans are raising warnings that North Korea has walked away from previous arms agreements. But those skeptics should remember that it was the United States, in 1958, that broke the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement, when the Eisenhower administration sent the first atomic weapons into South Korea.

By the mid-1960s, the United States had more than 900 nuclear artillery shells, tactical bombs, surface-to-surface rockets and missiles, antiaircraft missiles and nuclear land mines in South Korea. Even nuclear projectiles for Davy Crockett recoilless rifles were for several years based in South Korea.

The presence of those American weapons probably motivated the North Koreans to accelerate development of their own nuclear weapons. Although all the tactical United States nuclear weapons were removed from South Korea in 1991, the Seoul government still remains under the American nuclear umbrella — and the impetus for Kim Jong-un to have his own remains, as it did for his father and grandfather.

“The danger that U.S. nuclear weapons might be used against the North has been a central principle in its strategic thought and actions ever since,” Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a North Korea expert, wrote in a 2015 paper.

 

The 1953 Korean armistice, which halted three years of bloody fighting, contained a provision that prohibited new types of weapons or ammunition to be introduced into the peninsula by either the United States-led United Nations forces, or the North Korean and Chinese forces. The armistice agreement even set up inspection teams from neutral nations to monitor incoming weapons shipments.

Image

People marched through Pyongyang, North Korea, in July of 1958 demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea.CreditKeystone/Hulton Archive, via Getty Images

However, declassified United States documents describe in detail how the Eisenhower administration, worried about the cost of defending South Korea and the prowess of North Korea’s Chinese-backed military, agreed to send tactical nuclear weapons systems to South Korea. In return, the administration was hoping to get the Joint Chiefs of Staff to support reducing the number of American and South Korean troops on the peninsula that the United States was financing, at a cost of about $650 million a year for the Korean troops alone.

Planning to send the atomic weapons to South Korea began in 1956. A Nov. 28, 1956, meeting involving Defense and State Department officials was titled “Defense proposal to authorize the introduction of ‘Honest John’ and the 280 millimeter gun in Korea,” according to a declassified memorandum.

According to that memorandum, the Pentagon’s general counsel argued that American soldiers in South Korea “should be permitted to have weapons of dual capability” — noting that the Honest John rocket system and the 280-millimeter gun “have both conventional and atomic capability.”

The State Department’s legal adviser, Herman Phleger, responded that the two weapons systems “would be a violation” of the armistice agreement and could not be justified as a matter of “liberal interpretation.” He added that these nuclear-capable weapons “would create an imbalance” which would violate the spirit of the agreement, especially since American officials could not establish that the North Koreans had deployed atomic weapons.

EDITORS’ PICKS

Pentagon officials argued that the Joint Chiefs of Staff regarded the introduction of the Honest John and Davy Crockett systems as “essential from a military viewpoint.” In turn they suggested that the North, by obtaining new artillery weapons and high performance aircraft, had violated the agreement and freed the United States “to disregard its restrictions.”

According to notes from a National Security Council meeting on June 13, 1957, Adm. Arthur Radford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that military planning for South Korea could not continue “without being able to count on the use of nuclear weapons.” Eisenhower agreed that jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons should be introduced into the South. But he also noted that if the United States introduced nuclear-capable Honest John rocket systems and 280-millimeter guns to the South, they would be “so conspicuous that you would have to explain their introduction to the whole world.”

On June 21, 1957, the senior official on the United Nations Command of the Military Armistice Commission, Maj. Gen. Homer L. Litzenberg, indicated that, given the North Koreans’ alleged violations, the command would no longer consider itself bound by certain limitations in the armistice agreement. The North Korean representative at the commission described General Litzenberg’s statement as an attempt “to wreck the armistice agreement and turn South Korea into an American base of atomic warfare.”

That day, the abrogation of the weapons prohibition was announced by the United Nations Command. The New York Times reported from Panmunjom, North Korea, that during a United Nations meeting, General Litzenberg had “left the door open for the introduction in South Korea of weapons capable of firing atomic warheads.” General Litzenberg declined to say what type of weapons the organizations planned to bring in.

However, that same day in Washington, the assistant secretary of defense for public affairs, Murray Snyder, told Pentagon reporters that no ground weapons capable of firing atomic warheads would be introduced. That turned out to be untrue.

At an Aug. 8, 1957, National Security Council meeting, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said, according to meeting notes, that ending the Korea arms prohibitions “had been pretty well received throughout the Free World.” Secretary of Defense Charles Erwin Wilson said the plan to put nuclear weapons in South Korea, if adopted, “would be able to bring home approximately 8,000 American military personnel and we could cut out four active South Korean divisions, which would save us approximately $125 million a year.”

It took months to negotiate reduction of four South Korean divisions with Syngman Rhee, the South Korean president. But on Dec. 24, 1957, Army Secretary Wilber Brucker was authorized to introduce into Korea the Honest John and 280-millimeter gun “as soon as is feasible under Army deployment schedules.”

Three days later, the American Embassy in South Korea proposed announcing the arrival of the atomic-capable weapons, saying the news was “bound to become public knowledge.” The United Nations Command agreed, and at a news conference in Seoul on Jan. 28, 1958, the arrival of the atomic-capable weapons was announced. A United States Army spokesman refused to say how many cannons arrived and whether they were accompanied by atomic warheads. It was a two-paragraph story on page 3 of The New York Times.

Since then, Americans have forgotten this history and American politicians have only blamed North Korea for undermining arms agreements. Pyongyang has indeed been unreliable; but its leaders recall what happened in the 1950s, having spent 33 years facing American nuclear weapons just across the border in South Korea.

The United States does not come to any future talks with totally clean hands. Both sides have reasons to adopt Ronald Reagan’s advice: “Trust, but verify.”

 

 

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With option to rule for life, China's Xi sets sights on Taiwan

CNN March 20, 2018

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/20/asia/taiwan-china-xi-jinping-intl/index.html

accessed March 20, 2018

 

感謝CNN 記者Joshua Berlinger ,他是西方記者中少有終於把我英文名字拼對了的。

林中斌 2018.3.20

I wish to congratulate Joshua Berlinger for spelling my name correctly, a badge of high professionalism.

Chong-Pin Lin March 20, 2018

Others spoke of a brain drain, and many see the continued integration as inevitable due to Beijing's growing economic might.
"If the trends continue, the elected government in Taiwan will have to reconsider the direction of cross-strait policy," said Chong-Pin Lin, Taiwan's former deputy minister of national defense and first vice-chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. "I think Beijing knows that very well."
"Soft power may eventually lead to what Beijing or Xi wants, which is integration and unification," said Lin.

Hong Kong (CNN) Xi Jinping began his second term as China's president with a blunt warning for Taiwan, an island it views as a breakaway province.

"All acts and tricks to split the motherland are doomed to failure and will be condemned by the people and punished by history," Xi said Tuesday at the close of the National People's Congress, Beijing's rubber-stamp legislature.

"Every inch of our great motherland's territory cannot be separated from China," he said, drawing loud applause from his audience inside the Great Hall of the People.

The tough talk on Taiwan isn't new. But Xi now has the option to serve as president for life, meaning he can execute strategies that last decades rather than years.

That long leash could give Xi opportunity to focus on achieving something that's eluded Chinese Communist leaders for nearly seven decades since the founding of the People's Republic: regaining control of Taiwan.

"Taiwan is very important and he wants to do it within his lifetime," said Willy Lam, a professor at the Center for China Studies at the Chinese University in Hong Kong.

"If Xi Jinping can pull off this national reunification by so-called liberating Taiwan, then he has something in the history books," Lam said.

 

 

Socialism with Chinese characteristics? Beijing's propaganda explained

The democratic island of Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) is separated from mainland China (the People's Republic) by a thin stretch of water and has been self-governed since a bloody civil war ended in 1949.

Though both Taipei and Beijing view the island as part of China, neither government recognizes the legitimacy of the opposing side, with Beijing warning that it could retake the island by force if necessary.

A renewed focus by Xi on Taiwan would put China on a collision course with the United States, which has diplomatic relations only with Beijing but maintains close unofficial links with Taipei.

Washington also provides arms to the island under the Taiwan Relations Act, and has signaled closer ties with Taiwan after President Donald Trump signed a bill Friday that aims to make it easier for US officials to visit the island and Taiwan officials to visit the US.

 

 

Xi Jinping Fast Facts

Zhang Baohui, a professor of political science at Lingnan University in Hong Kong said that Taiwan could be part of Xi's motive for removing restrictions on term limits but it's not an issue he's likely to move on in the near term.

"His most important priority is domestic politics. Externally, Taiwan is secondary compared to US-Sino relations, the Korean peninsula and boosting China's leadership role in the world."

For now, what he wants is to deter Taiwan from greater independence, Zhang said, but that calculation could change should the balance of power shift between the US and China.

"After 20 years, by 2040, if China's achieved military parity then it may be feasible if they could win at a low cost."

One of China's top military leaders, Han Weiguo, the commander of the Chinese military's ground forces, said last week that Taiwan should be reunited by peaceful means but warned: "That doesn't mean the problem could be postponed indefinitely. It should be solved as quickly as possible," Han said, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

Nationalist fervor

A pillar of Xi's leadership has been his promise of returning China to its former glory, before Western powers dealt the country a humiliating blow, starting in the Opium Wars of the 1800s, and the chaos that engulfed China throughout the early 20th Century.

Part of that promise is steeped in nationalism, and there's perhaps no other issue that whips up more nationalist fervor inside China than the issue of Taiwan.

 

 

Straying from the policy of "One China," which has governed relations between Beijing, Taipei and Washington for decades, can lead to serious consequences.

Companies like MarriottZara and Delta all had their websites blocked by China's censors in January after authorities found they listed Taiwan as a separate country.

The same sensitivity can be seen in Beijing's furious response to the Taiwan Travel Act, which Trump signed into law with little fanfare Friday.

The new law encourages US government officials of all levels to travel to Taiwan for official meetings and vice versa. While it has no binding legal force, it's symbolically supportive of Taiwan. Beijing has often called on the US to block visits by Taiwan's political leaders.

"China demands that the US keep its promises, rectify its wrongs, refrain from implementing relevant clauses of the bill and stop seeking any official contacts, military ties or arms sales with Taiwan, so as to avoid doing serious harm to the China-US relationship, the ties between the two countries' militaries and the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said Sunday.

Beijing fears developments in Taiwan that are out of its control, said Bonnie Glaser, the director of the China Power Project at Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"Beijing is worried about the potential for Taiwan to sort of drift off in a direction toward independence," Glaser said.

"They seem to be nervous that because, in part, President Trump is unpredictable, that this could lead to a surprise ... they're particularly worried about very high level visitors from Taiwan such as the president, the minister of defense, the minister of foreign affairs," Glaser said.

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping was sworn in Saturday for his second term as President.

Carrots and sticks

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen warned late last year that China's military exercises around the island had become more frequent and were affecting regional stability, according to Taiwan's state-run news agency CNA.

As of this year, Taiwan has 215,000 people in its armed forces, while Beijing counts more than two million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. In 2017, China's military budget was three times higher than Taiwan's.

China's military has "established a clear superiority," said Zhang, the political science professor, however he said Taiwan could still make a military conflict very costly to Beijing.

"Xi has a defensive agenda. He doesn't want to coerce reunification," he said.

 

Taiwan Presdient Tsai Ing-wen waves to supporters during her campaign in 2016.

But experts say soft power and economic integration appear to be the keys to Xi's plans regarding Taiwan.

During his speech Tuesday, Xi called for peaceful reunification and said China would "share opportunities" with "compatriots" in Taiwan.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office in February revealed 31 new measures it will undertake to promote exchange and cooperate with Taipei, many of which make it easier for those from Taiwan to work, do business and study in mainland China including teachers and doctors.

This view is reflected on the streets of Taipei, Taiwan's largest city, where some young people speak openly about the need for pragmatism over idealism.

"As much as we want to enjoy the freedom and democracy in Taiwan, we also want the money and the opportunities China can provide," a 22-year-old restaurant worker surnamed Wu told CNN.

However, opinion polls conducted by Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council show the vast majority of those in Taiwan favor maintaining the status quo and want China to "pragmatically face up to the fact that the Republic of China (ROC) is a sovereign state."

Others spoke of a brain drain, and many see the continued integration as inevitable due to Beijing's growing economic might.

"If the trends continue, the elected government in Taiwan will have to reconsider the direction of cross-strait policy," said Chong-Pin Lin, Taiwan's former deputy minister of national defense and first vice-chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council. "I think Beijing knows that very well."

"Soft power may eventually lead to what Beijing or Xi wants, which is integration and unification," said Lin.

A legacy risk

Analysts believe Xi is a man deeply aware of history and concerned with his legacy. He's already considered China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, Communist China's founding father, and has had his political doctrine included in the Chinese Communist Party's Constitution.

The longer he leads, the higher the expectations will be, argues Glaser, the academic at CSIS, and Taiwan would be the biggest prize.

"If Xi stays in power for another term or even a fourth term, then I do think that there is growing pressure on him to achieve more," she said.

 

 

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注意王岐山

鄒景雯 自由時報 March 19, 2018

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1185128

accessed March 19, 2018

 

自由時報轉型。
-- "川普正式簽署台灣旅行法...是在打'台灣牌'...政府浸淫...的喜悅,只要一天就好..."

林中斌 2018.03.19

 

中國的領導班子底定了,透過這些人物面孔,未來五年,對岸的政經政策輪廓,已可逐步勾勒而出。果然出任國家副主席的王岐山,今後將主責中國最艱鉅的對美關係工作,儘管不按傳統國際政治牌理出牌的川普總統,近來好似不斷對習政權給出下馬威,但是面對勢必詭譎的這場博弈,台灣一定要提高警覺。

因為,台灣是局中人,不是旁觀者,不能只是輕鬆的看戲。不講別的,當美國急吼吼地要求中國削減一千億美元順差,否則不惜貿易戰開打的同時,川普正式簽署台灣旅行法案,鼓勵台美各層級官員互訪,公開提升兩國的實質關係,這個舉動,不必懷疑,當然是在打「台灣牌」,彷彿是對著北京投出高速直球,就看習近平要如何揮棒。

很清楚的,川普的目標是美國利益,「台灣牌」是他梭哈(show hand)中國的另一手。因此,政府浸淫在台灣旅行法的喜悅,只要一天就好,必須馬上集中精神掌握美中之間一切的進退,以確認台灣利益是否維持在最大化。尤其是王岐山這個人現在派上檯面,按照他過去的履歷,以及季辛吉與美國政商界長期與之打交道的觀感,他具有為中國化妝的「能力」(論理)與「實力」(籌碼),我們絕對不能大意。

這陣子,中國國台辦叫囂台灣不要「挾洋自重」,事實上,剛好相反。特別在台灣議題上,這是自一九七二年以來,中美三公報一路的本質,非得拉著美國跟他複誦一個中國,否則中國好似就無法存在一般,台灣有腦袋的人,一定要注意中國接下來會如何「挾洋自重」。

王岐山,肯定是個挾洋的高手。二一五年,政治經濟學家福山到中南海與時任中紀委書記的王岐山有番會面,相當能反映王岐山的性格,不論外界能否同意他「中國的事情運行要很慎重」,「不能讓十三億人走懸崖峭壁」的辯護,或者即使對其所謂「司法一定要在黨的領導之下進行,這是中國特色」嗤之以鼻,也不得不承認,這名掃遍政敵的「反腐沙皇」,不但至今未被推翻,還按照習王兩人的既定劇本,一步一步,毫無偏差的,走上了讓世界開口忘闔的境地。這樣的對手,台灣勢必要有所認識。

一個研究中國歷史的人,居然可以成為處理中國經貿危機的領導人,有人這樣描繪王岐山:務實面對中國的問題,深入研究,提出解決。戰略與戰術分得清楚,明白什麼是不可讓的底線,什麼又是可以犧牲的短期利益。就算以上這是高壓統治下的溢美之詞,但是在台灣普遍看短不看長的政治文化下,我們的政治菁英需要自問,在此後的美中台棋局中,台灣維護獨立自主的戰略與戰術又是什麼?

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記者引述錯誤、誤置、及漏寫

鍾麗華 自由時報 March 19, 2018

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1185089

accessed March 19, 2018

 

《自由時報》2018319A2
記者引述錯誤
"陳在陸委會任前(誤寫為任內),曾到對岸三十多次..."
記者誤置
"林中斌提醒陳明通"
在下沒有提醒陳主委,只是分享觀察,是記者假我名提醒陳。
記者漏寫(或不敢寫)
2000-2004
時的陳副主委私下對鄙人所表示的長遠未來兩岸發展看法是非常務實的。

林中斌 2018.3.19

 

 

陸委會主委陳明通今天上任,前陸委會副主委林中斌提醒,中國對台政策是長期規劃,不僅祭出對台三十一項措施,而且拉攏台灣的大學生、中學生,最近也看到中國積極與台灣小學生交流,中國軟手促統已翻天覆地來台,政府應做好準備,並以前瞻性的長期戰略來思考兩岸政策。

 

林中斌提醒陳明通注意

林中斌表示,他與陳明通曾在二千年至二○○二年在陸委會共事,陳在陸委會副主委任內,曾到對岸三十多次,堪稱是民進黨裡最了解中國的學者,陳對未來兩岸看法非常務實,與外面的印象截然不同。

林中斌說,雖然陳在前年政黨輪替沒有入閣,但一直提供執政團隊兩岸政策的建議與各種評估。林的消息來源告訴林,陳明通在去年中共十九大前曾給總統蔡英文一份報告,完全預測七名中國政治局常委名單,非常不簡單。林也說,陳明通對兩岸談判有個研究團隊,有一些想法與規劃、準備,陳也一直在琢磨這個問題。

林中斌提醒陳明通,中國對台政策是長期規劃,從去年十二月底,有人在台北、桃園、宜蘭等地,陸續看到穿著中國制服的小學生,與台灣的小學進行交流,這不像是零零星星的個案,而是經過縝密的規劃;如果對岸鎖定的目標是小五的學生,到了二四九年、中共建政一百年時,這群小學生已經四十一歲,正是社會中堅,面對中國如此長期的規劃,台灣是否已準備好了?

熟悉陳明通的人士表示,陳明通從一九九年代就開始赴中交流,在學界與實務界累積二十八年與中國交流、交往經驗,陳明通也因此累積豐富的人脈,而中國涉台系統對他並不陌生,包括張志軍、王毅都曾與陳接觸過。

淡江大學中國大陸研究所副教授張五岳表示,陳明通可在短時間掌握蔡總統的兩岸政策,也清楚民進黨對中國政策與兩岸關係的思維,今年是選舉年,相信陳擔任陸委會主委,可以讓泛綠支持者正面看待。不過,影響兩岸關係的因素非常多,不能單從兩岸人事佈局來看,包括中美互動、國際關係、區域問題等,都必須考量。

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北京對台 軟手為實 硬手為虛

林中斌 名人堂稿件

日期:20180307

本文字數:1100

目標字數:1100

 

一四年三月爆發「太陽花學運」。七月,當時民進黨主席蔡英文塑造「天然獨」一詞,指支持獨立的青年。兩年後,她當選總統,「天然獨」功不可沒。

一五年一月,北京國務院推出「國家級創業基金」,以兩千億台幣吸引台灣青年。一六年七月十八日《商業週刊》報導:在東莞創業的台灣青年說,「他們提供免費辦公室、公寓、並附贈新台幣一百萬元創業啟動基金,免還。」一七年十一月二日《自由時報》登載:一六年底,對岸十二省市已成立四十一青創基地,入駐台資一千兩百家,吸引超過六千名台灣青年在當地就業,而地方政府自行設立二百多青創基地。

一八年一月二日,《天下雜誌》公布民調:「統一」選項首度上揚;自認台灣人的比例,下滑至五年新低。卅到卅九歲世代,支持獨立的從一七年的五十四點三趴,滑落至卅七點三趴。支持緩統的創近十年來新高,達到十三點八趴,較一七年的八點二趴顯著成長。願意去大陸工作的,有卅七點五趴,一○年來的新高點。其中廿到廿九歲者最高,達到四十三點八趴。標題是「天然獨鬆動」。

類似的民調結果,也見於一七年十一月二日《聯合報》,及今年二月十二日《遠見》。是否媒體因偏見而危言聳聽?即使民調結果屬實,是否民主自由可保台灣對抗中共?

《自由時報》不認為是。去年十一月廿二日社論:「先進國家卻已…(擁)抱中國的市場與工廠,連台灣商界也有人宣稱民主不能當飯吃。…本土政權執政,台灣認同反顯衰退…。」

前民進黨官員游盈隆博士主持的「台灣民意基金會」在去年十二月卅一日公佈民調結果:當月對蔡英文有好感的人民達四十六點九四趴;而前月對習近平有好感的達五十一點五二趴,高於蔡近五趴!

去年十月中共十九大之前,北京對台兩手策略試點。硬的有機艦繞台、巴拿馬斷交,限縮非邦交國活動,官方卻否認施壓意圖。軟的有磁吸台灣青年、專業人才、禮遇我退役官兵等操之在它的作為。十九大之後,北京一度同時加強對台兩手策略。春節前改為:軟手為主,硬手為輔,惠台擴大,壓台低調。終於在二二八高規格推出卅一項全面的「惠台措施」。

北京思維可能是:硬手策略下,台灣人民無感,甚至反感。而軟手策略下,台灣民意逆轉,突破了過去廿多年來北京對台工作的瓶頸。台灣的民主政府若禁止人民西向移動,困難重重。台灣民意若持續改變,政府抗拒調整兩岸政策會異常艱辛。

北京目前對台是:硬手防獨,軟手促統。未來可能是:硬手為虛,軟手為實。

因為硬手對促統無效,只是分散我注意力,消耗我有限資源購買昂貴武器以防共軍登台。而我真正需要的武器,賣主卻不斷拖拉。

北京對台軟手,一向被我忽略。北京認為「買台灣比打台灣便宜」的拙見一直未成我主流思維。情形有如:我部署重兵於西岸,而敵於東岸登陸,如入無人之境。

正視此挑戰是時候了。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長,甫發表新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》

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學者:汪洋將貫徹對台兩手策略

鍾麗華 自由時報 March 15, 2018

http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1184000

accessed March 15, 2018

●"未來中國促統力度更大、範圍更廣、方式更多,'從反獨的守式,轉為促統的攻勢'...。"

●昨天聯合報名人堂登載拙作"北京對台,軟手為實,硬手為虛"之後,自由時報來電訪問。此篇為訪問之結果。

●記者文字掌握中肯。

林中斌 2018.3.15

〔記者鍾麗華/台北報導〕中共政治局常委汪洋接任政協第十三屆全國委員會主席,並兼任中共中央對台工作領導小組副組長。陸委會前副主委林中斌認為,汪洋一向給人的印象是非常靈活、務實,相信汪會貫徹中共總書記習近平對台的兩手策略,並加強促統的力道;在中國祭出惠台三十一項措施後,台灣政府須正視北京「買台灣比打台灣便宜」的思維。

 

靈活、務實強化促統力道

林中斌指出,他從很多訊息管道聽到,習對於過去涉台工作硬邦邦、「寧左勿右」的做法很不滿意,相信汪洋未來在對台上會展現更靈活的執行方式,不會像過去那麼僵化;雖然中國對台基本立場不會改,但汪洋一定會包裝得不是那麼「霸氣」,以隱藏背後的促統動機。

 

林中斌強調,北京目前對台是「硬手防獨、軟手促統」,未來可能是「硬手為虛、軟手為實」,他們知道硬手對促統無效,只會引起台灣人民無感、甚至反感,因此才高規格推出三十一項惠台措施。未來也會看到中國促統力度更大、範圍更廣、方式更多,「從『反獨』的守勢,轉為『促統』的攻勢」,台灣面臨的挑戰超乎現在。

 

淡江大學中國大陸研究所副教授張五岳分析,汪洋在國務院副總理任內,是中美經濟安全對話的中方負責人,而即將接任國台辦主任的劉結一曾任中國常駐聯合國代表,過去國台辦主任沒人有駐美經驗,「這是北京有史以來最瞭解美國的涉台團隊」。對北京而言,在兩岸現今沒有政治互信與溝通管道下,利用對美工作、透過美國來管控兩岸關係。

 

不過張五岳認為,中國對台政策是要看習的理念、意志與布局,其他人都是執行者、貫徹者。在十九大後的四個月,中國祭出三十一項惠台措施,橫跨三十一個部委,若不是習的意志,以國台辦的層級很難去協調。雖然卸任與新任的涉台團隊,都是在執行習的政策,但在十九大後的開局之年,面對新情勢與新格局,以及中美關係、區域局勢的變化,習對涉台團隊的要求也會隨之調整。

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習近平發動不流血革命 台學者:反腐將劍指紅二代

鄭路 新唐人 March 13, 2018

http://www.ntdtv.com/xtr/b5/2018/03/14/a1367258.html

accessed March 13, 2018

 

"而中華民國前國防部副部長林中斌認為,習近平過去五年是在進行「沒有流血的內部革命」,把一個鬥倒孔夫子的政權,翻轉為尊崇儒家學說的政權。習取消任期限制只是第一步,真正 ... 林中斌說,習近平可能要把黨、政、軍三駕馬車合併成一個領導人,因為別的國家也都是一個領袖。此前有傳言說他這次要改總統制 ..."

【新唐人北京時間2018年03月14日訊】北京11日修憲,成功取消國家主席任期限制,外界質疑反腐是否繼續。台灣學者認為習近平下一步將劍指紅色資本。而中華民國前官員判斷,習近平會繼續不流血革命,力推總統制,而修憲只是完成第一步。

 

自由亞洲電台3月12日引述台灣成功大學政治學系教授梁文韜的分析稱,北京完成修憲,中共內部已沒有人有足夠的實力挑戰他,或者說沒有人要挑戰他,這背後是否有與「大老虎」的政治交換,值得觀察。

 

對習近平未來是否繼續反腐,梁文韜持質疑態度。他認為,習近平已經清除完政治上的紅二代、紅三代,下一步將清除商界的紅二代、紅三代,防止有人利用這些紅色資本支持政變等反抗活動。

 

而中華民國前國防部副部長林中斌認為,習近平過去五年是在進行「沒有流血的內部革命」,把一個鬥倒孔夫子的政權,翻轉為尊崇儒家學說的政權。習取消任期限制只是第一步,真正目的是買時間,喘口氣,然後執行政改。

 

林中斌說,習近平可能要把黨、政、軍三駕馬車合併成一個領導人,因為別的國家也都是一個領袖。此前有傳言說他這次要改總統制但沒成功,內部阻力太大。

 

林中斌認為,習近平那個想法沒有消失,他要把整個構想翻過來。習的目標很可能跟新加坡模式比較象,就是一黨獨大的黨內民主,也就是所謂「非自由式的民主」。

 

台灣政治大學國關中心美歐所研究員嚴震生判斷,習近平不一定是真想要第三任、第四任,他目前只是不想讓黨內反對勢力通過一個接班人再次集結。他說,非洲很多領導人任期終身制都有一個問題,剛開始或許政局穩定,而到身體出狀況時,各股接班勢力就會難以控制。

 

香港《明報》近日評論文章也曾提到,習近平如果尋求延續權力,可以留任總書記或垂簾聽政,本不必在意國家主席這個虛職。而他興師動眾、不顧留下罵名也要一意孤行,很可能是想把國家主席的權力做實,演變為總統制。

 

日前,安邦和華信等被指權貴家族「白手套」的民企巨頭,相繼遭到整肅甚至接管,顯示出當局劍指紅色資本的跡象。此前,紅二代也被認為有邊緣化趨勢。

 

外界評論,中共太子黨本就不是鐵板一塊,習近平修憲觸及紅色家族的政治和經濟利益,可能會導致太子黨進一步分裂。

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林中斌:大陸絕不會武統台灣

林永富 工商時報 March 13, 2018

https://m.ctee.com.tw/livenews/lm/20180313001470-260409

accessed March 13, 2018

感謝黃清龍社長的訪問,以及工商時報的文字登載。但文字登載有若干需要更正之處如下:

● “林中斌接受《POP撞新聞》主持人黃清龍訪問時說,中共修憲,把習近平思想入憲,國家主席的任期取消。能確定習近平會延任,但應不會是最後修憲,因為不能保證他能順利完成使命,所以仍需要更長任期來完成他的使命。”(我說的是:但應不會是最後修憲,因為目前修憲後的體制仍不能保證可以在他之後平順運作。我沒有用「使命」兩字。)

●林中斌表示,習近平主掌的大陸不像新加坡,也不像完全專制集權,如果前5年沒有人民支持與參與不能完成打貪反腐。(我說的是:這5年來辛苦的打貪成績,未來在習之後若無人民的監督,將付諸東流。我沒有說:前5年沒有人民支持與參與不能完成打貪反腐。)

●西方民主有出現很多問題和缺點,像川普沒有人把他推下來,普丁也是,民主模式要新思考,兩個制度還在比賽中。(我說的是:西方民主制度下,川普支持度只有35%41%,可是沒有人把他推下來。而普丁支持度高達80%,不只是俄羅斯民調如是說,西方在俄羅斯所做民調也如此)

●林中斌認為習近平會長期執政,習認為國家完全統一是三大歷史任務之一,(我沒有說:習認為國家完全統一是三大歷史任務之一)

●民調認為我是台灣人比例下降,台灣人對統獨比例也逐漸反轉,要獨立的人變少,要統一的人變多,(我還說了:雖然現在支持獨立的仍高於支持統一,但假以時日,未來就很難說)

林中斌 2018.03.13

2020更新)前陸委會副主委、國防部副部長林中斌13日指出,大陸絕不會對台武統,會繼續以兩手策略,軟的是主是實,硬的是輔是虛。他認為蔡政府可走向與大陸談,但要爭取對台灣最好的條件。

 

林中斌接受《POP撞新聞》主持人黃清龍訪問時說,中共修憲,把習近平思想入憲,國家主席的任期取消。能確定習近平會延任,但應不會是最後修憲,因為目前修憲後的體制仍不能保證可以在他之後平順運作。

 

林中斌表示,習近平主掌的大陸不像新加坡,也不像完全專制集權,這5年來辛苦的打貪成績,未來在習之後若無人民的監督,將付諸東流。北京一直在參考新加坡模式,創出自己的模式。現在修憲把三個領導(指中共總書記、軍委主席及國家主席)合一,主席是最沒有權力的一個,下一個應會追求總統制,十九大後權力穩固元老凋零,比較能穩定操作。西方民主制度下,川普支持度只有35%41%,可是沒有人把他推下來。而普丁支持度高達80%,不只是俄羅斯民調如是說,西方在俄羅斯所做民調也如此。

 

他說,習近平的新體制外媒稱為北京模式,還沒有看到全面,是一種威權而有效的體制,是一種賢能政治,西方自由式民主出了大問題,但是習把孔孟甚至王陽明請回來,與毛澤東完全不一樣,把整個體制完全翻過來,這是一種全新的體制。

 

林中斌認為習近平會長期執政,而在他任期內會不會出現兩岸統一?他說,統一是漫長的過程,遲早要與台灣領導人見面。台灣的民意也在改變,民調認為我是台灣人比例下降,台灣人對統獨比例也逐漸反轉,要獨立的人變少,要統一的人變多,雖然現在支持獨立的仍高於支持統一,但假以時日,未來就很難說。人民願到大陸工作,綠營媒體也不否認是趨勢也出現憂慮。

 

他強調,大陸絕對不會有武統,他很早就說大陸買台灣比打台灣便宜,超軍事手段,北京大戰略對世界對台灣都一樣,硬的強化其軍事軍備,像軍機軍艦繞台、對台外交封殺,目的是反獨,真正促統要民心,兩手策略軟的是主是實,硬的是輔是虛。一國兩制還是方案。

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「老西,我雞道」

Andreas Whittome(魏安德)自由時報 March 12, 2018

http://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1183066

accessed March 12, 2018

自由時報已非吳下阿蒙。

林中斌 2018.3.12

本月七日曾泰元教授投書「廢注音,採拼音?」一文,本人身為在國外的中文教師,想分享一些看法與經驗。

 

葉宜津委員指的應該是中國大陸發明的漢語拼音。現在世界上幾乎所有的中文學生都使用漢語拼音並且學簡體中文,除了台灣當地的學生以外。我認為廢除注音符號很可惜,假如廢除正體字就更可惜了,兩種廢除都好像廢除了華人文化核心的一部分一樣。

 

其實漢語拼音雖然對西方人來說很方便,但沒有注音符號準確。注音符號是接近完美的一套系統,反之漢語拼音有些缺點,導致外國人經常把某些音都念錯。例如漢語拼音裡的i有時候念「ㄧ」,有時候不念「ㄧ」,比如念「ㄐㄧ」可是shī念「ㄕ」,導致很多外國學生把「師」念成「西」,把「知」念成「雞」。很多學生會把「老師,我知道」說成「老西,我雞道」。

 

注音符號可以避免這種錯誤發生,因為每個注音符號都代表一個固定的音:「ㄌㄠˇ ㄕ,ㄨㄛˇ ㄉㄠˋ」就很清楚。現在在台灣的華語中心也採用漢語拼音。我還是認為對在台灣學中文的外國人來說,學注音符號是很值得的。原因是台灣人都掌握注音符號(反之中國人不一定能掌握好他們自己的漢語拼音)。

 

我以前在台灣學中文時,有時因為對方不捲舌而聽不懂。比如對方把「政治」念成「贈字」(ㄗㄥˋ ㄗˋ),這種場合我常常會請對方用注音符號把這個詞的發音寫下來。很奇妙的是:他雖然念得不正確還是會很正確地寫下注音符號的「ㄓㄥˋ ㄓˋ」。我就說「啊,政治!」他就說「對,對,對,贈字!」不僅有趣,也很有幫助。因此,希望台灣會保留此久經考驗的好系統!

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【心理戰】中國祭大規模惠台措施 學者:施壓已到飽和點

蘋果日報 March 08, 2018

https://tw.appledaily.com/new/realtime/20180308/1310427/?utm_source=FB&utm_medium=MWeb_Share&utm_campaign=https%3A%2F%2Ftw.appledaily.com%2Fnew%2Frealtime%2F20180308%2F1310427%2F

accessed March 09, 2018

記者錯誤引述。

我沒有說兩會後北京會使更多台灣邦交國轉向。正巧相反,我說北京發現臺灣人民對巴拿馬轉向無感,以後暫時不會用同樣招數,梵諦崗除外。梵諦崗若轉向,不是為打壓台灣,而是提升北京國際形相。

我也沒說北京機艦繞臺使"蔡英文越來越氣憤"。蔡總統情緒非外人能知,包括在下。我說的是:北京硬手只能防獨,不能促統。所以北京現在兩手對台,以軟手為主,硬手為輔。

我懷疑VOA英文訪問中我所說的英文有人聽來有困難。

林中斌 2018.3.9

中國政府最近釋出31項惠台措施,國務院總理李克強在最新的工作報告中,也表示中國主張「和平發展」兩岸關係。對此,學者分析認為,中國大陸日前一連串的施壓動作已呈現「飽和」狀態,對台態度也因此緩和。

 

國防部前副部長林中斌向美國之音記者表示,中國對台灣的態度在1月份開始緩和,因為他們覺得已經達到了「飽和」點。文中指出,隨著北京派軍機繞台飛行、縮減赴台團體旅遊、打壓台灣國際空間,使得蔡英文總統越來越氣憤而不是越來越接近中國。

 

林中斌認為,中國政府可能透過自己的民調得知有不少台灣人願意在中國工作或學習。他說,中國放寬台灣人赴大陸工作、學習和投資的條件直接影響台灣公民,不需要台灣官員的支援:「不像前任中國國家主席胡錦濤採取的那些至少需要台灣當局的合作與參與的措施,新的措施都不需要台灣的參與。」

 

但林中斌也警告,一旦人大會議在3月中旬結束,台灣就會看到中國恢復外交壓力,屆時將會有更多台灣的外國盟友轉向中國。

 

派克策略公司(Park Strategies)副總裁金恩(Sean King)則分析,習近平透過修憲延長執政時間後,「只會進一步疏遠台灣人,因此更不可能讓蔡英文做出任何讓步」。

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