林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Chong-Pin Lin, “Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Struggle without Breaking”

Asian Survey May/June 2015 pp. 478 -501

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2CA5YyEY_eVZGJERl8zTTdTc0k/view?pli=1

  accessed August 14, 2015

This May/June 2015 Asian Survey article entitled "Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Strugggle without Breaking" is an invited contribution by Asian Survey based on a keynote speech at the September 2012 U.C. Berkeley conference on South China Sea. The article was published on August 8, 2015, about three years after the speech was delivered.

The non-mainstream views presented in 2012 -- such as " struggle without breaking", "toughness abroad draws domestic applause", that a Sino-Japan Diaoyus/Senkakus conflict won’t happen, the two-faced US policy in East Asia, the budding/rising accommodation school in the U.S., the hedging of China's neighbors, the Bo Xilai link to China's post-2009 rising assertiveness -- have remained largely non-mainstream today. However, they have survived the test of three years of time.

The article contains 72 footnotes (usually 40 footnotes as stipulated by Asian Survey), over 10,000 words (usually 8,000/9,000 words for AS).

Chong-Pin Lin August 11, 2015

這一篇柏克萊大學出版的Asian Survey 期刊在 2015年5/6月期登載的拙文 "與中國在東亞上升的海事爭端真相: 鬥而不破" 在今年8月8日出版。那是根據2012年9月在加州柏克萊大學的學術會議裡的主題演說，由Asian Survey 邀稿。

文中呈現2012年許多非主流的看法如 -- 鬥而不破、對外強硬對內收割、中日釣島戰不會爆發，美國在東亞的兩面性、美國調適派的萌芽和崛起、中國鄰國的兩面下注、2009年後中國開始的對外強硬和薄熙來的因素-- 如今仍為非主流。但已經過三年時間的考驗。

此文含72腳註(通常Asian Survey 限定40, 而作者初稿原有過百的腳註), 1萬多字(通常限定8千/9千字)。

敬請賜教。林中斌2015.8.11

原文內容：https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2CA5YyEY_eVZGJERl8zTTdTc0k/view?pli=1