林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

特朗普(川普)能夠撐多久？

Donald Trump and the siege of Washington

Edward Luce, The Financial Times, FEB 20, 2017

http://big5.ftchinese.com/story/001071448?page=2 (中)

https://www.ft.com/content/bc99e5d8-f526-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608 (英)

accessed Feb 23, 2017

分享包淳亮教授之觀察：

●  不少於9個情報來源向《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post)泄露了邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)與俄羅斯大使的電話通話細節。

●  對於華盛頓的許多記者而言，匿名的死亡威脅已經是家常便飯。我擔心，或早或晚，這最終將導致暴力。司法機構的境況也是如此。本月早些時候叫停特朗普“穆斯林禁令”的法官們也收到了死亡威脅。

●  很難預測，要解決特朗普和所謂的國家深層勢力之間的鬥爭需要多長時間。也很難說由共和黨主導的國會能夠在圍攻之下堅持多長時間。我的觀點是，將過去的4周乘以3，或者6，或者9。中間地帶將會消失。在某個時刻上，這將歸結於選擇特朗普還是選擇美國憲法。

如果有些事無法永遠繼續的話，它就會停止。問題是唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)能夠撐多久。對接下來的四年作猜測沒什麽意義。就以特朗普上任的頭四周為基礎做乘法，再問問美國體系還能承壓多久吧。

在上任頭一個月，特朗普對情報部門和媒體宣戰。司法部門似乎是他列出的下一個敵人。在特朗普領導的華盛頓，沒有中間地帶。要麽是反對他的力量把他趕下臺，要麽是他摧毀這個體系。我打賭是第一種，但我不會用性命做賭註。

不要對特朗普的內閣放心。其中很多人經驗豐富。國防部長詹姆斯•馬蒂斯(James Mattis)、國務卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)和財政部長史蒂文•姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)都是專業人士。我們可能會質疑他們的優先任務，但我們沒有理由質疑他們對現實的把控。

甚至連備受爭議的特朗普顧問凱莉安妮•康韋(Kellyanne Conway)和新聞秘書肖恩•斯派塞(Sean Spicer)都可能看上去不錯——如果他們是為別的某位總統工作的話。特朗普可以用美國最勤懇的公務員填充他的政府，但這不會改變最重要的事情。他們還是得執行這位將世界劃分為朋友和敵人——沒有中間地帶——的總統的命令。

前海軍海豹突擊隊隊員羅伯特•哈沃德(Robert Harward)拒絕了擔任特朗普國家安全顧問的邀請，這是一個預兆。通常情況下，具備哈沃德這種背景的人會欣然接受這一高職。但哈沃德卻不能接受這種未來。

如果接受，那將意味著侍奉一位自以為比他的將軍們更懂戰爭，比他的間諜們更懂情報，比他的外交官們更懂世界的總統。特朗普唯一認同的人是那些認同他的人。特朗普目前已經任命的人將花多長時間得出這一結論仍是一個未知數。盡職與蒙受羞辱之間的界限很難區分。

美國情報機構似乎已越過這一界限。不少於9個情報來源向《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post)泄露了邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)與俄羅斯大使的電話通話細節。其中一些顯然是對弗林輕視情報間諜人員的報復，在他擔任國防情報局(Defense Intelligence Agency)局長時，間諜人員曾造出“弗林事實”(Flynn facts)一詞。但其中一些是因為對這位對美國國家安全毫不在乎的總統感到嚴重恐慌。

特朗普將中情局(CIA)比作納粹德國，並指責中情局為希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)工作。相比之下，他卻對聯邦調查局(FBI)局長詹姆斯•科米(James Comey)稱贊有加，科米在最後一刻的乾預，曾幫助美國總統大選朝著有利於特朗普的方向發展。

這其中的信息很清楚：你或是選擇像科米一樣，或是選擇被視為敵人。很難想象會有許多公務員將科米視為榜樣。其中一些人冒著生命危險，領著相對微薄的工資，服務他們的國家。而特朗普不是他們的國家。

然後是“說謊的媒體”——特朗普的極右翼支持者用納粹時代詆毀用語“Lügenpresse”（譯註：意為說謊的媒體）來指稱媒體。上周四，特朗普打著新聞發布會的幌子，讓媒體遭受了80分鐘的“狂轟濫炸”，他指責媒體不誠實，散佈“非常虛假的新聞”並且密謀破壞他的執政。

合乎他本人邏輯的下一步，是指責媒體叛國。特朗普曾發布一條Twitter帖子，稱媒體是“美國人民的敵人”，後來他刪除了這條帖子（後來特朗普把這條帖子修改後又重新發出，但仍然保留了稱媒體是“美國人民的敵人”的內容——編者註）。這事不會善了。對於華盛頓的許多記者而言，匿名的死亡威脅已經是家常便飯。我擔心，或早或晚，這最終將導致暴力。司法機構的境況也是如此。本月早些時候叫停特朗普“穆斯林禁令”的法官們也收到了死亡威脅。

這一切的終點在哪裡？過分樂觀的人堅持懷抱特朗普將修正路線的希望。如果事態照這種樂觀的情形發展，特朗普將清除白宮中挑起爭端的人士，比如他的親密顧問斯蒂芬•班農(Stephen Bannon)和斯蒂芬•米勒(Stephen Miller)，並且用經驗豐富的人士代替他們。

這樣的清洗在某些時刻是可能的。甚至還很有可能。少有顧問能夠近距離接觸一個煽動家的狂熱並且長期幸免於難。除非特朗普找人替換自己，否則這種圍攻還會持續下去。

我們也不能指望性格轉變。特朗普可能會花95%的時間聽取專家的建議，花5%的時間反對這些建議。這5%依然將推動議程。但特朗普不是一個可以改變的人物。他越是被圍攻，越是會出手反擊。現在特朗普誓言對泄露事件進行調查，並且暗示將清除不忠誠的官員。

很難預測，要解決特朗普和所謂的國家深層勢力之間的鬥爭需要多長時間。也很難說由共和黨主導的國會能夠在圍攻之下堅持多長時間。我的觀點是，將過去的4周乘以3，或者6，或者9。中間地帶將會消失。在某個時刻上，這將歸結於選擇特朗普還是選擇美國憲法。

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. The question is how long that will take with Donald Trump.It is little use speculating about the next four years. Just multiply Mr Trump’s first four weeks and ask how long America’s system can take the strain.

In his first month Mr Trump has declared battle on the intelligence and the media. It seems to be like the judicial department is subsequent on his listing of enemies. There is not any center floor in Mr Trump’s Washington. Either the forces which might be towards the president will convey him down or he’ll destroy the system. My wager is on the first. But I’d not stake my life on it.

Do not be reassured by Mr Trump’s cupboard. Many of them are skilled people. James Mattis, the secretary of defence, Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, and Steven Mnuchin, the nominee for Treasury secretary, are professionals. We might dispute their priorities however we’ve no foundation to contest their maintain on actuality.

Even Kellyanne Conway, and Sean Spicer — Mr Trump’s controversial adviser and press secretary — would in all probability look tremendous in the event that they have been working for a unique president. Mr Trump might populate his administration with America’s most diligent public servants and it might not change the most vital factor. They would nonetheless be required to execute the orders of a person who divides the world into associates and enemies — and nothing in between.

Robert Harward, the ex-navy Seal who turned down the job to function Mr Trump’s national safety adviser, is a harbinger of issues to come back. In any regular circumstance, somebody of Mr Harward’s background would have leapt at the honour of such a excessive place. But Mr Harward couldn’t abdomen the prospect.

It would have meant serving a president who thinks he is aware of greater than his generals about battle, greater than his spies do about intelligence and greater than his diplomats do about the world. The solely with whom Mr Trump agrees are those that agree with him. It is an open query how lengthy it should take for Mr Trump’s current appointees to succeed in the similar conclusion. There is a skinny line between doing all your obligation and being humiliated.

The US intelligence already seem to have crossed that line. No fewer than 9 intelligence sources leaked particulars of Michael Flynn’s telephone name with the Russian ambassador to the Washington Post. Some of this was certainly revenge for the contempt Mr Flynn dealt out to intelligence brokers, who coined the time period “Flynn facts” when he was head of the Defense Intelligence Agency. But some of it was motivated by deep alarm a couple of president who’s so cavalier with US national safety.

Mr Trump has likened the Central Intelligence Agency to Nazi Germany and accused it of working for Hillary Clinton. In distinction, he has nothing however reward for James Comey, head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, whose final minute intervention helped to tip the election Mr Trump’s approach.

The message is obvious: be like Mr Comey or be handled as the enemy. It is tough to think about there are a lot of public servants who see Mr Comey as a task mannequin. Some of them threat their lives at comparatively low pay to serve their nation. Mr Trump isn’t their nation.

Then there’s the mendacity media — or the “Lügenpresse” as Mr Trump’s alt-right supporters say in echo of the Nazi slur. On Thursday Mr Trump subjected the media to an 80-minute diatribe disguised as a press convention wherein he accused them of dishonesty, peddling “very fake news” and conspiracy to undermine his presidency.

His subsequent logical step is to accuse the media of treason. In a tweet he later deleted Mr Trump referred to as the media an “enemy of the American people”. This can’t finish properly. Anonymous loss of life threats have change into a traditional approach of life for a lot of journalists in Washington. I worry it’s only a matter of time earlier than this leads to violence. The similar applies to the judiciary. The judges who shot down Mr Trump’s “Muslim ban” earlier this month are additionally receiving loss of life threats.

Where does this finish? Panglossian sorts cling to the hope that Mr Trump will make a course correction. In this blissful improvement, he would clear the White House of firebrands, comparable to his shut advisers Stephen Bannon and Stephen Miller, and change them with seasoned operators.

Such a purge is feasible in some unspecified time in the future. It might even be probably. Few advisers can lengthy survive proximity to the white warmth of a demagogue. Unless Mr Trump changed himself, the siege would go on.

Nor can we financial institution on a persona transplant. Mr Trump might spend 95 per cent of his time taking the recommendation of specialists and 5 per cent going towards it. That 5 per cent would nonetheless drive the agenda. But Mr Trump isn’t a reformable character. The extra besieged he turns into, the extra he lashes out. He is now vowing an investigation into leaks and an implied purge of disloyal officers.

It is tough to foretell how lengthy it might take to resolve the battle between Mr Trump and the so-called deep state. It can be arduous to say how lengthy a Republican Congress might stand the warmth. As I say, multiply the previous 4 weeks by three, or six, or 9. The impartial floor will vanish. At some level this may boil all the way down to a alternative between Mr Trump and the US structure.