為何全球參與一帶一路計劃68國家中3分之2受益個案幾乎不見於國際媒體報導?

accessed Feb 18, 2019

According to a March 4, 2018 report based on the study of Center for Global Development in Washington DC:

根據2018年3月4號美國智庫「全球研究中心」的一份報告指出：
-Among 68 countries hosting China's BRI project, 34% (23 countries )were at risk of "debt distress" as of March 2018.

68個牽涉一帶一路的國家中，有23個國家(23%)在2018年3月時，被債務問題所困擾。
- Among the 68, 12% (8 countries)were at "significant' risk" of，"debt distress".

這68個國家中，8個(12%)國家具有重大的債務問題。
-In other words, 66% of the 68 countries probably have benefited from BRI.

換句話說，這68個國家當中，有66%可能從一帶一路中受益。
- Interestingly enough, 2/3 of the 68 total have received scant

international media attention.

有趣的是，這68個國家當中，2/3的國家只受到國際媒體相當有限的關注。
Chong-Pin Lin February 16, 2019

文章連結：https://www.cgdev.org/article/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-heightens-debt-risks-eight-countries-points-need-better?fbclid=IwAR2V04NbpdL3CjhCEHuUvhMxZDjON3VyBuY749RgIUKDdNkCPB4wpr30oMY

The dividing of America

 The Economist, July 16, 2016

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21702188-donald-trumps-nomination-cleveland-will-put-thriving-country-risk-great

accessed July 16, 2016

• 2045年後美國白人將成少數。
• 美國選民兩極化，中間重合將會變少。
• 目前美國人賭川普會贏的是10人中有3，正合英國脫歐公投前賭會脫歐的比例一樣。
• 根據美國選舉歷史，即使川普這次敗選，他的主張將成為未來共合黨的主張，如1964共和黨的Barry Goldwater和1972民主黨的George McGovern。

225m reasons for China’s leader to worry

 The Economist, July 9, 2016

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701760-communist-party-tied-its-fortunes-mass-affluence-may-now-threaten-its-survival-225m

accessed July 9, 2016

• 中國的中產階級在1990年代不存在。2000年5百萬，2016年2億2千5百萬。她們2000年的收入式一年$11,500-$43,000。
• 很少中國中產階級的人想要民主，尤其在英國脫歐公投的「鬧劇」演出之後。
• 中國群眾運動(抗議遊行)在2010年有180,000，平均每天有493件。多年以前，每天只有300件。

Economy Takes Command

Chong-Pin Lin, The International Economy, Summer 2015

 這篇拙作登在今年夏天的”國際經濟”季刊中與捷克、奧地利中央銀行行長、耶魯大學管理學院榮譽教授等經濟專家近二十人為伍。討論主題是西方先進國家的經濟財務政策是否應該翻修了? 實指的是美國對世界銀行、IMF缺陷遲之不改進導致中國亞投行興起的失誤。

“國際經濟”為歐美金融界領袖所閱讀，包括美前Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Alan Greenspan、Paul Volcker等。

紐約時報、華盛頓郵報讚此季刊總站在趨勢的前端。

敬請賜教

林中斌 2015.9.21

China may overtake the U.S. economy sooner than expected.

Can China Become the World’s Engine for Growth?

CHONG-PIN LIN

Former Deputy Defense Minister, Taiwan, and Professor, Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University in Taipei.

April 11, 2006

National and Capodistrian University of Athens
 

CHINA’S CROSS-STRAIT GO GAME

Taiwan was once considered an unequivocal success-story in achieving speedy and smooth democratization that both Americans and Taiwanese prided themselves on. Now, the island is encountering multiple challenges, none more severe than those from across the Taiwan Strait. And, democracy to Taiwan’s national security is both assets and liabilities.

BEIJING’S AGILE TACTICS ON TAIWAN

♣Conference on “The Political and Economic Reforms of Mainland China in a Changing Global Society”

♣College of Social Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei April 26, 2002


 

Chong-Pin Lin

☻This is a draft. Citation or quotation requires the author’s approval.

The views expressed here are purely personal, and do not represent the ROC government, or any agency thereof.

On March 15, 2000, People’s Republic of China Premier Zhu Rongi put on an unforgettable performance at a press conference in Beijing.




Download link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzSUZrV2o2bktuQXM 

MORE CARROT THAN STICK:

Beijing’s Emerging Taiwan Policy

 Chong-Pin Lin

President, Foundation on International and Cross-strait Studies

Professor, Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies,


  TamkangUniversity