林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

                                                                                                林中斌 2012.12.30 印度
 
“北京將與達賴恢復接觸。”這是我在2012年10月31日聯合報名人堂“習近平與佛教”中所寫。但是我當時並不知道5天前印度報紙已登載習近平已在8月26日派人去德蘭沙拉見達賴。以下是那篇印度的報導。報導中蕭武南與大寶法王照片，來自蕭武南自己部落格，是他回北京後貼的。據進一步查證，蕭當時並不一定帶了習近平的信，但是他在德蘭沙拉時，口氣友善、樂觀、但不自誇，只是想瞭解德蘭沙拉方面的想法。這點與其他不少來自北京號稱代表某某領導的訪客完全不一樣。他應該是真正北京派來的人物。                                  
      “Beijing will resume contact with Dalai Lama” so wrote I in the October 31, 2012 oped entitled “Xi Jinping and Buddhism” in United Daily News. I, at the time, did not know that 5 days ago, an Indian news source had already published a report (see the following posting)revealing that Xi Jinping sent an envoy to Dharamsala to contact Dalai Lama on August 26. My further investigation suggests: Mr. Xiao Wunan might not have carried a letter from Xi Jinping to Dalai Lama, but he was courteous, optimistic, somewhat vague, intent on learning what Dharamsala’s thinking was, and did not claim to represent anyone important in Beijing which set him apart from many other namedropping visitors from Beijing who claimed to represent certain VIPs in Beijing. That made him look more like the real emissary.    
                                              
                                              Chong-Pin Lin Dec. 30, 2012 India
                                                                           

      As China prepares to usher in a new leadership at the 18th Party Congress scheduled to open in Beijing on November 8, there is mounting concern in senior echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the rising resentment in the ethnic Tibetan minority.

      Particularly worrying would have been the self-immolation on October 15, by the grandfather of the 10-year old Beijing-recognised VIIth Gungthang Rinpoche, which highlights the strained relationship between Tibetans and Communist authorities. A new feature is that recently thousands of Tibetans, disregarding heavy armed police presence, assemble at sites of the self-immolations to pray for the deceased and mark the spot.

                                                                   In a recent apparent bid to ease these tensions, Chinese authorities quietly sent an emissary and contacted Tibetan leaders in Dharamsala. Thinly cloaked as a venture of ‘Asia Pacific Exchange and Cooperation Foundation’ (APECF), a Chinese government-sponsored NGO manned by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) cadres, the initiative seeks to revive plans to consolidate and expand China’s presence in Nepal and ingress India and its border regions, ostensibly by encouraging Buddhist tourism in Lumbini in Nepal. At least one executive director of APECF has links to China’s military establishment.

    “北京將與達賴恢復接觸。從○九年二月至今年十月廿二日自焚抗議的藏民已達五十七人。北京在習主政下較易瞭解：若不和溫和達賴談判，他過世後激進藏青竄起，漢藏仇恨將如以色列巴勒斯坦，無解。"

http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/57686118

林中斌，"近平與佛教”聯合報 2012.10.31 A4
 

http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/12/12/7/n3746890.htm%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6%E9%AB%98%E5%AE%98%E7%88%86%E4%B8%AD%E5%85%B1%E5%AF%86%E4%BD%BF%E6%99%A4%E8%BE%BE%E8%B5%96-%E5%B8%A6%E5%8E%BB%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E4%B9%A6%E4%BF%A1.html

20121207 印度高官爆中共密使晤達賴 帶去習近平書信

    【大紀元2012年12月07日訊】（大紀元記者陳怡蓮綜合報導）近日，印度前高官發文披露，中共一名統戰官員曾在8月份以民間身份秘密造訪了流亡藏人所在地達蘭薩拉，並與達賴喇嘛及流亡政府噶倫赤巴羅桑森格本人進行了會面。據稱，這名官員還帶去了當時即將接棒中共最高權力的習近平的書信。

Chong-Pin Lin,“Chinese Military Modernization: Perceptions,

Progress, and Prospects”1994

Chong-Pin Lin,“Chinese Military Modernization: Perceptions, Progress, and Prospects” Security Studies, summer 1994 p.742.

Chong-pin Lin:“The Role of the People’s Liberation Army in the Process of Reunification: Exploring the Possibilities” 1993

Chong-pin Lin:“The Role of the People’s Liberation Army in the Process of Reunification: Exploring the Possibilities” China's Military: The PLA in 1992/1993 (Boulder, Colorado:Westview, 1993)  p.170.

Chong-pin Lin:“The Role of the People’s Liberation Army in the Process of Reunification: Exploring the Possibilities” China's Military: The PLA in 1992/1993 (Boulder, Colorado:Westview, 1993) pp.161-179.


Download Link:https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzRklRYndrd2x0V1k

Chong-Pin Lin,“Red Fist:China’s


Army in Transition” February 1995

Chong-Pin Lin,''Red Fist:China's Army in Transition'' International Defense Review, February 1995 p.34.

 

 INSIGHT-Does China's next leader have a soft spot for Tibet?

BEIJING/DHARAMSALA, Aug 31, 2012 (Reuters) - For decades, Beijing has maintained that the Dalai Lama is a separatist, but Tibet's exiled spiritual leader once had a special relationship with the father of Xi Jinping, the man in line to become China's next president.

Few people know what Xi, whose ascent to the leadership is likely to be approved at a Communist Party congress later this year, thinks of Tibet or the Dalai Lama.

    But his late father, Xi Zhongxun (習仲勛), a liberal-minded former vice premier, had a close bond with the Tibetan leader who once gave the elder Xi an expensive watch in the 1950s, a gift that the senior party official was still wearing decades later.

《520專題／軍事》兩岸軍事失衡 豈可持續弱化國防

20120520 林中斌：馬最缺的 是大戰略

Election Campaign Tips From Cicero

Foreign Affairs   May/ June2012

林中斌序：競選抹黑在兩千年前的羅馬民主就有了。那還是雄辯家-西賽洛所採取的作法。結果呢? 輸掉選舉的人不服，起兵掀起內戰。民主為獨裁所取代。共和結束成為帝國。廿年後，西賽洛死於戰場。

兩千年後，柯林頓競選大將自豪的承認，他從年輕時代便從事競選抹黑，並為老闆贏得總統大選。美國的將來會如何?學習美國的台灣民主將來會如何?

Chong-Pin Lin’s Note: Negative campaigning is nothing new to politics. It had existed two thousand years ago in the Roman Republic, and was adopted by the famous orator Marcus Tullius Cicero. He is known to us as the one who conquered his stuttering by practicing public speech on the beach with a pebble in the mouth.

What happened to Cicero’s election campaign? He won. But his rival who apparently refused to accept the result took to armed rebellion and was killed in battle. Cicero, two decades later, was also killed in the civil wars. And the democracy became dictatorship, while the Roman Republic was replaced the Roman Empire.

President Bill Clinton won his elections thanks to campaign strategist James Carville who introduced Cicero’s campaign manual written by the latter’s brother. Carville honestly or unabashedly admitted that he began applying negative campaign tactics soon after his college graduation.

 What will become of America’s democracy? What will become of Taiwan’s democracy modeled after the U.S.?

A reminder: In 2008, Barack Obama refused to engage in smearing campaigns. He only pushed back when attacked by his opponent. (May 15, 2012)

 

沒禮貌比沒專業更糟

台積電董事長張忠謀在不同場合都談過『收訊力』──傾聽的力量。

「常常有人問我成功的原因為何，我想我『收訊』的能力已培養了很多年，」他歸納成功之道時指出。

10年前，張忠謀在交通大學對高階經理人授課時，特別提到他與人對話時進行的『收訊力測驗』：

「第一個看我講話時，他會不會打斷我？」

張忠謀說：「打斷話的人既不禮貌也對自己不利，因為他打斷我，以為知道我接著要講什麼，可是90％他都猜錯。」

統一企業董事長高清愿，是另一個善於從小處識人品的例子。

20120507 By the time Barack Obama became president, the trail to Osama Bin Laden had long gone cold

Download Link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2CEVviUgny1cDg1dFVYV0I4SFU

20120323The Chinese Communist Party and Its Emerging Next-Generation Leaders 

Download Link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2CEVviUgny1WGNfT1QzYXZ6TGc

First step: enter the link

Download Link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2CEVviUgny1U1RYVEJQcVJrSFU

Download Link: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2CEVviUgny1dWd5dldtektxcUU

First step: enter the link

Attention:To students who major the course of  PRC Foreign Relations 

The assignment of 4/25

To compare two articles:

1. Chong-Pin Lin, “Beijing’s Agile Tactics on Taiwan”

http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/27413594

2. Chong-Pin Lin, “More Carrot Than Stick: Beijing’s Emerging Taiwan Policy”

http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/24300068