“糗了！最新民調40％認川普搞壞經濟”，中國時報，2019.8.30，A10版

accessed Aug 30, 2019

糗了！最新民調40％認川普搞壞經濟

王嘉源/綜合報導

美國總統川普堅持對大陸打貿易戰，但最新民調卻已顯示，美國人不但覺得經濟正在轉差，也把責任怪在川普身上，為他明年角逐連任拉響警報。調查還指出，如果現在舉行美國總統大選，尋求連任的川普一定會敗給民主黨對手。

而據美國奎尼匹克大學（Quinnipiac University）28日公布的這項民調，37％受訪者覺得美國經濟正在下滑，感到經濟改善的比率只有31％。前者的比率已多過後者，這是川普當選以來頭一遭。

根據民調，另有30％受訪者認為經濟不好不壞，比率為有紀錄以來最低。雖然有61％人覺得美國經濟仍然優秀或良好，但這比率較5月民調結果顯著減少10個百分點。

另外，41％受訪者認為川普政策對美國經濟弊大於利，也首度超越認為利大於弊的37％。奎尼匹克大學民調研究員史諾（Mary Snow）指出，隨著陸美貿易戰占據媒體焦點，美國人對經濟信心也在下滑，約40％人責怪川普損害經濟，比率為他上任以來最高。

調查還顯示，如果現在舉行總統大選，川普鐵定會敗陣。前3名最看好的民主黨參選人與川普的支持率比較如下：前副總統拜登54％：38％、佛蒙特州聯邦參議員桑德斯53％：39％、麻州聯邦參議員華倫52％：40％。當中，拜登更贏川普達16個百分點。

Aaron Blake, “Trump’s worst 2020 poll yet”, The Washington Post, 2019.8.28

President Trump hasn’t seen many good polls these days, but he might have just seen his worst of the 2020 election cycle.

A new Quinnipiac University poll has plenty of bad news for Trump — from his 2020 matchups with Democrats, to his own personal image, to his biggest asset in the 2020 race: the economy.

The poll shows him trailing all five Democrats tested by between nine and 16 points. He trails Joe Biden 54 to 38, Bernie Sanders 53 to 39, Elizabeth Warren 52 to 40, Kamala D. Harris 51 to 40 and Pete Buttigieg 49 to 40. These represent his biggest deficits to date against all five candidates, according to RealClearPolitics’s compilation of polls.

The poll also shows his approval/disapproval declining to 38/56, with just 27 percent approving of him strongly and 50 percent disapproving strongly. That’s the worst those splits have been in Quinnipiac polling since February 2018.

He earns the approval of just 32 percent of independents and the disapproval of 60 percent. In every matchup with a Democrat, he trails among independents by at least 18 points. This is a demographic that he won in 2016 by four points.

The bad news extends, perhaps most significantly, to the economy. While six in 10 registered voters still regard the economy as “excellent” (18 percent) or “good” (43 percent), for the first time since June 2016 more Americans say the economy is getting “worse” (37 percent) than say it’s getting “better” (31 percent). As recently as one year ago, more than twice as many people thought the economy was getting better as thought it was getting worse.

The poll also shows, for the first time, slightly more Americans say Trump’s policies are “hurting” the economy (41 percent) than say they are “helping” (37 percent).

The economic findings may be the most ominous of the entire poll for Trump. While we have yet to see a significant downturn in the American economy, there are increasing signs that it’s a possibility, and analysts are tying those growing odds to Trump’s trade war with China. The economy is by far Trump’s best issue: His approval is 38 percent or less on every other issue tested, including immigration and trade, but 46 percent on the economy. If it does decline, he’ll lose his most compelling case for reelection on an issue that is generally the most important to voters.

This is but one poll, and we’ll have to see if other polls suggest a similar decline for Trump. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll also released Sunday showed Trump’s approval remaining at 44 percent, and Trump has yet to trend downward in RealClearPolitics’s polling average.

But a new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan on Wednesday also showed Trump trailing every Democrat in that crucial state, which Trump narrowly won in 2016, by between three and 10 points. And pretty much every high-quality national poll, including a Fox News poll earlier this month, has shown Trump trailing his top would-be 2020 opponents, including by large margins with the better-known ones.

There’s plenty of time, and polls aren’t predictive, but for now it appears he’s starting from behind.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/28/trumps-worst-poll-yet/