林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Warren Down, Trump Up

華倫勢衰 川普連任

accessed Dec 5, 2019

Warren Down, Trump Up

華倫勢衰 川普連任

(中文翻譯請見下方)

■Senator Elizabeth Warren, who almost began to lead the Democratic Party field of Presidential hopefuls before October, now has plummeted in polls so drastically that her fall seems beyond the point of no return.

■Her Medicare for All plan announced November 1 drove away a sizable chunk of middle class supporters.

■With the the first caucus in Iowa coming up in less than a month, her chances of winning the Democratic Party primaries and candidacy look extremely slim.

■With that prospect almost set, Donald Trump would be re-elected come Novemer next year. No other Democratic candidates stand a chance of beating Trump.

■As Warren would appeal to Trump's basic supporters and she, a previously registered Republican, could strike a coveted balance on the political spectrum like no other Democratic contenders can.

■Even if a recession hitting the U.S. before the election would not hurt Trump's re-election, as he could easily alter the blame to some foreign forces against which he would be the best defender of the country.

■The impeachment, likewise, would not amount to a consequential blow to his re-election campaign, as his base remaining solid around 40%, much above that of president Emanuel Macron ,the strong man in Paris.

■As a inevitable result, the U.S. would see its alliance system further weakened abroad and partisan divisions worsened at home.

■參議員伊麗莎白·華倫在十月之前幾乎要在民主黨總統初選中領跑，但現在民調卻急劇下降，以至於她漸趨下風的趨勢似乎已無可挽回。

■華倫11月1日宣布的全民醫療保險計劃，嚇跑了大量中產階級支持者。

■剩不到一個月，愛荷華州的第一場初選即將舉行，她贏得初選機會看起來非常渺茫。

■隨著華倫勢衰之勢幾乎確定，川普將於明年十一月再次當選。沒有其他民主黨候選人有機會擊川普。

■由於華倫對川普的基層支持者有吸引力，而她曾是共和黨人的身份，可幫助她在政治領域取得夢寐以求的平衡，其他民主黨競爭者無法企及。

■即使在選舉前夕美國經濟衰退也不會有損川普的連任，因為他很容易可將責任推卸給外國勢力，而他將是美國利益最好的捍衛者。

■同樣，彈劾不會對他的連任產生重大影響，因為他的基本盤仍然保持在40％左右，遠高於在巴黎的強勢總統馬克宏。

■作為必然結果，美國將看到其同盟體系進一步弱化，而國內黨派分裂惡化。