林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

近年來，地震海嘯、火山爆發等天災似乎更頻繁的轟炸我們的視聽。美國官方研究機構提供最可靠而全面的數據，而他們自己最新的數據挑戰了他們的保守說法。官方機構經費來自政府，或許有責任努力安定人心。但地震及火山趨勢之真相對於務實而理性的人似乎值得冷靜探討：

In recent years, earthquakes tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and other natural disasters seem to bombard our senses ever more frequently than before.  The U.S. government-sponsored research institutions provide reliable and comprehensive data, but their data have challenged their conservative statements.  Official institutions financed by government, may have a responsibility to calm down public anxieties.  But for rational and pragmatic minds, the truth --however unpleasant-- warrants really close examinations:

全球地震爆發趨勢/Global Earthquake Trends

    美國地質調查所蒐集全球地震資料，直至最近仍然稱地震頻率並未增加。雖然它提供的數據庫經整理後顯現其實不然。

The U.S. Geological Survey until lately has claimed that the frequency of global earthquakes has not increased.  The data provided by the USGS presented, however, a different picture.

「美國國家地質調查局(The U.S. Geological Survey, USGS) 地球物理學家斯坦 (Ross Stein)說：『不過，長期的資料顯示，全球地震活動並沒有出現激增，大地震也沒有增加。自1964年開始有持續紀錄以來，全球大地震的數量基本保持不變：據美國國家地質調查局的資料，記錄在案的裏氏7.0級及以上地震每年平均有17次。』」(Gautam Naik，「全球為何頻發大地震」，華爾街日報，2011年 03月 28日，http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20110328/env105842.asp?source=newsletter accessed  May 1, 2011。)」

“Ross Stein, a geophysicist who is also at USGS, said ‘But long-term data reveal no large increase in global seismic activity, even for big quakes. Since consistent   record-keeping began in 1964, the number of big temblors seen globally has stayed   fairly constant: An average of 17 quakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher has been recorded each year, according to the USGS.’ ”

(Gautam Naik, “Quakes Echo World-Wide”, The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2011 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703696704576223190440090846.html?KEYWORDS=quakes+echo accessed May 2, 2011)

    筆者根據USGS自己之資料庫所作之趨勢統計，以上兩說法均已被打破。請見以下兩統計圖「全球每年2至10級地震」及「全球美年7至10級地震」：

        I have computed the global trends of earthquakes from the USGS data and found that the trends challenge the USGS official statements as quoted above.  Please see the following two charts, “World Earthquakes Magnitude 2 to 10 1973-2011" and” World Earthquakes Magnitude 7 to 10 1973-2011":

全球火山爆發趨勢/ Volcanic Eruption Trends

   世界最大的研究所和博物館群是美國國立「史密森學會」(Smithsonian Institute)的美國「國家史密森自然歷史博物館」。它是多年收集全球火山活動資料的權威機構。屬於它的「全球火山研究計劃」對於全球火山爆發是否變多，持極保守的看法，聲稱歷年來火山爆發數不超過70次。

The Smithsonian National Museum of National History of the Smithsonian Institute is one of the most authoritative institutes for monitoring global volcanic activities.  According to the Global Volcanism Program of Smithsonian National Museum of National History, the annual numbers of volcanic eruptions around the world over the years did not increase and the number of eruptions remained less than 70 times per year.

       
        「國家史密森自然歷史博物館」的「全球火山研究計劃」看法之一是：「1960年之後世界火山活動的報告比較全面，所以我們把40年來(僅至2000年)的數據製圖。圖中顯示全球每年活動火山之數目在50次和70次之間擺盪，而平均下來相當穩定並沒有變多。」。 (“Has Volcanic Activity Been Increasing?”,

Global Volcanism Program, Smithsonian National Museum of National History http://www.volcano.si.edu/education/questions/index.cfm?faq=06 accessed May 2, 2011)

In “Has Volcanic Activity Been Increasing? “, the Global Volcanism Program of Smithsonian National Museum of National History stated, “Finally, we plot below the record since reasonably comprehensive reporting of global volcanism began in the 1960s.  Note that the number of confirmed erupting volcanoes has leveled off between 50 and 70 per year through the past four decades, and a linear regression line through the data indicates that volcanism has been virtually constant.” (“Has Volcanic Activity Been Increasing?”, Global Volcanism Program, Smithsonian National Museum of National History http://www.volcano.si.edu/education/questions/index.cfm?faq=06 accessed May 2, 2011)

    但以上說法並未納入2000年後明顯上升的數據。筆者根據「國家史密森自然歷史博物館」資料庫所作趨勢統計，發現從2004年至2010年，世界爆發的火山數目有5年高於70次，從2004年至2008年，皆超過它所說的上限。請見「全球每年火山爆發次數」:

Apparently, the statements above did not incorporate the data after year 2000. Actually, in the period 2004-2008, for five year, the annual number of volcanic eruptions exceeded 70, computed according to the data provided by the Smithsonian National Museum of National History.  Please see the following chart "World Annual Volcanic Eruptions 1900-2010":

也許做為代表政府的研究機構，「美國國家地質調查局」和「國家史密森自然歷史博物館」一樣，都全力避免造成人心恐慌，而對天災升高之趨勢採取不承認的態度。這點我們可以諒解，而不必苛責。

Perhaps as government-funded research institutions, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Smithsonian National Museum of National History, have a duty to avoid arousing public panic, which is quite understandable.