"俄羅斯宣布2019年起大學聯考要考中文"

https://chinaqna.com/a/49601?fbclid=IwAR3VTCVnkuJuunwDi9v8rgFtA2ngBZsUO2EBR-LikeWWwkNtSGWiYF_ieCQ

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

 

-- 聽說普丁決定與中國長期合作。因為其內部研究結論是對抗不符合俄羅斯長遠的利益。

-- 貝加爾湖淡水前幾年已公佈提供給中國。可灌溉黃土高原,減輕穀類種植缺水的問題。

-- 中俄在低調商討莫斯科歸還滿清被帝俄所佔領的領土。因此唐努烏梁海是否為中國領土目前高度敏感。中國法院回答人民:此屬國家機密無法回答。

敬請賜正

林中斌 2018.12.2

 

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"不戰而屈人之兵"

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

 

China aims to defeat the US Air Force without firing a shot. Here’s how.

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/11/29/china-aims-to-defeat-the-us-air-force-without-firing-a-shot-heres-how/?fbclid=IwAR1-UQPfHa5R6IJYHfbDKoEKnUlU8qGnILIW6KuGbhh9NEBY6YHPy6IUOPE#.XACNWVeJ-YY.facebook

"不戰而屈人之兵"
--
美國智庫蘭德公司2017年的報告今年10月才對外公佈。---- 它發現解放軍發展嚇阻美軍空軍能力,而非以戰鬥方式擊敗美軍。
--這正是北京大戰略"不戰而主東亞/歐亞/歐亞非"的戰術表徵。
--解放軍空軍建軍發展一直在拷貝美國空軍,但是也有不同。例如殲-20和殲-31並不如美軍F-22, F-35有強的對地攻擊的能力。似乎解放軍將靠其他能力對付美軍。如針對美國依賴衛星的通訊、精準的地對空飛彈、精準的空射巡弋飛彈。

敬請賜正
林中斌 2018.11.30

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經濟掛帥:世界的新現實

《國際經濟》2015年夏季刊,頁14-15

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

林中斌

台灣前國防部副部長,現任國防大學兼任教授

字數:1779

 

邀稿提問:

 

《國際經濟》總編輯及創辦人大衛˙斯密克(David M. Smick)2015年春天向數十位國際觀察家邀300-500字的英文稿回答以下的問題:

 

全球先進工業化國家的經濟和金融策略是否該重新評估並且調整?

 

二次大戰之後所成立的國際經濟和金融機構,包括國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)、世界銀行(World Bank)、國際清算銀行(Bank of International Settlements)、各地區的發展銀行,其目的在於提供全球合作的平台。但是這些機構現在陷入可信賴度的危機。像七大工業組織(G-7) 和二十國集團(G-20)之類的組織對於全球金融市場來說也看來愈來愈無關緊要。

 

舉歐洲為例。對付希臘的經濟危機,歐洲聯盟委員會(EU Commission)、歐洲中央銀行(European Central Bank)、歐盟理事會(EU Council)、歐盟理事會(EU Parliament)、歐洲議會(EU Commission)以及財務部長的歐洲集團(Eurogroup of finance ministers)都連帶遭受了名譽損失。由於國際貨幣基金組織參與了處理希臘危機的「三頭馬車」(還包括歐洲聯盟委員會、歐洲中央銀行),對於希臘勞工家庭來說,「三頭馬車」與無情的樽節成為同義字。

 

在世界的另一邊,有些分析師相信中國新成立的亞洲基礎建設投資銀行 (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)有潛力成為世界銀行強勁的競爭者。

 

以上所提西方國際經濟和金融機構可信任程度的損失是否誇大了?如果不是,西方國際經濟和金融策略聲譽的損失可以彌補嗎?如何彌補?

 

以下為約廿位國際政策戰略家專家提供他們的看法。

 

作者回答

 

經濟掛帥。雖然目前尚不明顯,這是世界上逐漸成形的現實。自從千禧年後,各國之間經濟互相依賴的程度衝破以往的紀錄。這趨勢帶來了幾項意涵。

 

第一,對主要大國來說,軍事原本是外交工具之一,但是價碼愈來愈高,令許多使用者的財力負擔不起,不只如此,使用軍事做外交工具其反效果愈來愈嚴重。21世紀的大國們如有爭議,打對手一拳,自己反而痛;捅對手一刀,自己卻流血。

 

第二,在國際關係裡,不流血的工具比流血的工具可用性更高。其中經濟工具的重要性愈發突出。

 

第三,上升強權與在位強權的軍事衝突不再是無法避免。「修昔底德陷阱」的理論的效用要打折扣。

 

第四,為了國家長期的利益,與其他國家合作會比與其他國家抗爭更有吸引力。

 

第五,世界上,愈來愈多的戰爭是內戰,或大國打小國,而不是大國之間的戰爭。

 

總之,世界上大國之間的運作,用間接的方式得益多,而用直接、對抗的方式得益少。

 

近年來,美國在地緣政治上的失利—如攻打阿富汗、伊拉克深陷泥淖—

多半和忽略了上述的趨勢有關。因為美國全球戰略以軍事為主,輕易用兵,並且為了維護美國國際的優勢不擇手段。一個鮮明的實例是它對北京成立「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」處理方式所遭遇的挫折。20153月,中國宣佈成立「亞投行」。美國批評「亞投行」機制不週延,質疑其目的不光明,並反對美國盟友參加。然而美國最堅強的盟英國友不顧美國反對宣佈參加,連帶了拉進美國在西歐其他的盟友¬¬¬—德國、法國、義大利。

 

之前,201312月,英國首相,大衛˙卡梅倫帶領英國有史以來最大的海外參訪商團前赴北京。他宣稱:「英國將成為西方對中國最堅強的支持者。」在之前的18個月,中國對英國投資總量超國了過去卅年的總合。所以,20153月,卡梅倫子不過兌現了他事先的許諾,而那個許諾是北京對倫敦加速下經濟功夫所致。

 

中國對美國其他參與「亞投行」的盟友—德國、法國、義大利、澳洲、南韓 - 也在經濟上下了類似的功夫。

 

北京遵循了孫子兵法所說的「不戰而屈人之兵,善之善者也」。所以,廿一世紀中國的大戰略是「不戰而主東亞」甚至「不戰而主歐亞」。北京所用的方針是「超軍事手段優先」。「超軍事手段」包括沒有硝煙也不流血的工具例如經濟、文化、外交、媒體等等。如果華府繼續遵循西方兵法家克勞塞維茨所說的「戰爭就是是暴力推到極致」-- 也就是說沒有暴力就不算戰爭,沒有戰爭就沒有勝利,華府將來還會面臨事先沒想到的挑戰,而被動因應。

 

「世界銀行」是美國在二次大戰後成立的,但是進入廿一世紀,其功能已無法照顧發展中國家的需求。然而,華府對於改革「世界銀行」一直沒採取行動。於是北京就獲得了道義正當性和實際理由來成立「亞投行」以協助發展中國家。可是,201310月中國國家主席習近平宣布將成立「亞投行」時,華府並沒有太當一回事。然而,成為強烈對比的是,英國財政大臣喬治˙奧斯本在兩周內便趕到北京進一步瞭解亞投行的計劃。

 

今年7月中,世界銀行行長金墉(Jim Yong Kim)訪問北京拜訪亞投行秘書長金立群商討合作的可能性。這應該是未來的趨勢。

 

作者三年後追述

 

希臘於2008年破產,GDP成長於2011年為負9.1%。中國於2010年介入,大量投資並輔助希臘基本建設。其GDP2017年已正成長1.4%

 

Economy takes command

This is the emerging reality of the world

Chong-Pin Lin

Word count of text: 505

Date: July 23, 2015

 

Economy takes command. Though not yet obvious, this is the emerging reality in the world. Since the millennium, economic interdependence among nations has reached a magnitude unprecedented in human history. Several implications follow.

First, the military tool has become inhibitingly costly and growingly counterproductive among major powers. In the new century, hitting a rival, one feels the pain oneself, and stabbing him, one bleeds. Second, non-bloody tools in international relations become more viable than bloody ones. Among the former, economy has risen in importance. Third, a clash between a rising power and an established power is no longer inevitable. The Thucidides traps loses its validity. Fourth, cooperation will gradually tops contention for the long-term self-interest of each nation. Fifth, wars occur within one nation, between unequal powers, but no longer among major powers.

In short, among major powers, an indirect approach in statecraft wins and a direct and confrontational approach loses.

Failure to heed these new trends has led to recent geostrategic setbacks of Washington as it has so far predicated its global strategy on the primacy of the military force, and on its supremacy maintenance at all cost. Washington’s frustration during the emergence of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank devised by Beijing was a case in point. In March 2015, Britain betrayed its most trusting ally the U.S. by joining AIIB – the integrity and intention of which Washington had questioned --taking other American allies along with it like falling dominoes.

In December 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron led the historically largest oversea trade mission to Beijing, and announced, “Britain will act as China's strongest advocate in the west”. By then, China had invested in his country during the previous 18 months more than what China did in the previous 30 years. In March 2015, Cameron merely lived up to his words which resulted from Beijing’s accelerated economic endeavor targeted at London.

China had applied similar economic tactics to woo other U.S. allies that ended up joining the AIIB -- Germany, France, Italy, Australia and South Korea.

Beijing has observed the adage of Sun Zi that “winning without fighting” is the best way to achieve victory, therefore China’s grand strategy is dominating East Asia or even Eurasia without war but with “extra-military instruments” such as economy, culture, diplomacy, and media. If Washington continues to follow the teaching of Clausewtiz that “war is an act of violence pushed to its utmost bounds”, it may become increasingly reactionary to challenges of unexpected nature.

Washington’s long inaction to reform the inadequate World Bank actually provided Beijing both the moral and the practical justification to establish the AIIB. Yet when Chinese President Xi Jinping first announced the formation of the bank in October 2013, Washington paid scant attention. In contrast, Britain’s Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne rushed to Beijing in two weeks.

In mid-July this year, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim visited Beijing and talked with AIIB Secretary General Jin Liqun to explore options for cooperation. This should be the way to go in the future.

 

Dr. Chong-Pin Lin, a former Deputy Defense Minister of Taiwan, now teaches at its National Defense University

 

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US Air Force's F-22, F-35 stealth fighters devastated by mother nature and freak accidents

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018


2018.10.15 英國金融時報報導可能有17F-22, F-35 戰機被颶風麥克所毀。Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida.損失相當於10% 美國空軍的戰力。

2018.10.17美國Pensacola News Journal報導: 受損戰機數目不詳。

以下文字有兩部份。

1.2018.10.15 英國金融時報

2.2018.10.17 Pensacola News Journal

1.2018.10.15 英國金融時報

 

US Air Force's F-22, F-35 stealth fighters devastated by mother nature and freak accidents

Alex Lockie

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-forces-f-22s-f-35s-devastated-by-mother-nature-freak-accidents-2018-10?fbclid=IwAR3RsED-z8RcTXM0wVlF8GOCRZdvXqURd8K-s1MdBdrfIDI8jx3vbvjPKVQ

November 22, 2018

 

Oct. 15, 2018, 12:05 PM

As many as 17 of these limited-run $140 million top fighter jets could be beyond repair. Reuters

 

The US Air Force sustained a massive blow to its fleet of stealth fighters in October as a powerful hurricane possibly destroyed several F-22s and as an F-35 crash grounded the entire fleet of Joint Strike Fighters.

As many as 17 F-22 Raptors may have been destroyed in Hurricane Michael, though the Air Force now says the damage wasn't as bad as previously thought.

F-35s have started to take back to the skies, but others remain grounded amid a fleetwide inspection.

Even if all F-35s and F-22s turn out fine, the losses at Tyndall Air Force Base, where stealth fighter training takes place, represent a huge setback to US air dominance on par with losing a big battle.

The US Air Force sustained a massive blow to its fleet of stealth fighters in October as a powerful hurricane possibly destroyed several F-22s and as an F-35 crash grounded the entire fleet of Joint Strike Fighters.

An investigation into an F-35B crash in September led the Pentagon to ground all F-35s until it could determine whether there was a defect in the fuel lines.

Then last week Hurricane Michael, the most powerful storm of its kind to hit Florida in about 50 years, devastated Tyndall Air Force Base, all but wiping it off the map.

"Tyndall has been destroyed," Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida told The Panama City News Herald on Sunday.

"The older buildings will have to be razed and rebuilt," he added. "The newer structures on the base that have survived the monster storm will need substantial repairs."

Initial reports indicated that up to 17 F-22s might have been damaged beyond repair. That number represents about 10% of all existing F-22s, which the US relies on for air dominance against top-tier enemies.

Pentagon photos showed that destruction at the base affected every aircraft hangar, including one holding F-22s that was severely damaged.

But Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said in a joint statement on Sunday that the damage "was less than we feared" and that "preliminary indications are promising."

It remains unclear exactly how many F-22s, if any, were damaged in the storm. But with Tyndall in ruins and the military families living there displaced indefinitely, the fighter training program at that critical base appears to have suffered a serious blow.

"It will take time to recover but we've been through this before and our Airmen are up to the challenge," Wilson's statement said. "Tyndall leadership will continue working hard to get information to airmen and families and all those displaced. We will be working detailed plans in the days ahead to tackle and overcome the challenges. We will get through this together."

Meanwhile, the F-35B downing in September most likely caused the US Navy's USS Essex to enter the Persian Gulf, where white-hot tensions with Iran have frequently produced military threats and harassment without working fighters. All F-35s aboard the Essex are up and running, the Marine Corps Times reported on Friday.

Already, F-35s around the globe have taken back to the skies after passing inspection. The Joint Program Office in charge of F-35 integration did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for an exact quote of how many remain grounded.

In another unrelated freak accident, a Belgian air force mechanic accidentally unloaded an F-16 fighter's Vulcan cannon into another F-16, which immediately burned to an irreparable crisp.

Lasting damage at Tyndall

Two F-22 Raptors from the 95th Fighter Squadron, 325th Fighter Wing, from Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, training with two Royal Norwegian air force F-35A Lightning II aircraft. US Air Force

Taken in total, the US has suffered grievous blows to its top-of-the-line fighters' readiness, particularly with losses at Tyndall that could set the F-22 community back considerably even if a single jet hasn't been damaged or destroyed.

Without the hangars in working order, and with much of the base's personnel displaced, Tyndall's role as a critical training hub for pilots the US needs for air-to-air battles and protecting high-value air assets can't continue there, though part of Tyndall's functions could most likely be taken on by nearby Eglin or other air bases.

But September and October have seen the US Air Force hit by freak accidents and severe weather causing damage that seems to have crippled the force more than enemy fire has in decades.

More: Tyndall Air Force Base F-22 Raptor F-35 Lightning II Military

 

2.2018.10.17 Pensacola News Journal

 

 

Fate of Tyndall Air Force Base F-22 Raptors still unknown post-Hurricane Michael

Melissa Nelson Gabriel, Pensacola News Journal

Published 6:00 a.m. CT Oct. 17, 2018

https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2018/10/17/hurricane-michael-tyndall-air-force-base-f-22-raptors-damage-uncertain/1652997002/?fbclid=IwAR1Io6J9NGegF8wO_NaRJLe8YcMqljFOwwTiOB91kzRTKGE7829j7raHEBk

accessed November 22, 2018

 

The US Department of Defense released video showing extensive damage at Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida. The base took a direct hit by Hurricane Michael, causing damage that one official described as "catastrophic." (Oct. 14) AP

 

(Photo: David Goldman, AP)

CONNECTTWEETLINKEDINCOMMENTEMAILMORE

While Florida's political leaders urged the Trump administration on Tuesday to prioritize rebuilding hurricane-decimated Tyndall Air Force Base, the fate of billions of dollars worth of stealth fighter jets at the base remained unknown.

Experts have said up to 22 of the F-22 Raptors, which cost an estimated $330 million each, could have been left behind in hangars as Hurricane Michael tore through the region. The base, which is home to 55 of the world's most-advanced fighter jets, flew 33 of the planes away from the storm to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio.

"Currently we do not know the extent of any damage to the F-22s left behind due to maintenance or safety reasons, but more information will be available once crews are able to access the hangars and assess the aircraft," said U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach, whose district includes nearby Eglin Air Force Base.

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, said he could not disclose the number of aircraft left behind at Tyndall. Like Gaetz, Nelson has said the jets were left behind because they were undergoing maintenance and were not in condition to be flown.

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New American Nazis:

Inside the White Supremacist Movement That Fueled Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018


--美國學者的研究發現:美國不斷對外用兵,反而帶來國內社會暴力事件增加。

---美國國內爆炸案、持槍濫射案、種族歧視的暴力案,

大多與對外作戰回國'的退伍軍人有關。

---美國國內"白人至上"的暴力組織如3K黨的興起和暴力事件擴散也和美國在國外作戰有關。

America’s perpetual warfare abroad has led to an increase in white supremacist violence at home. That’s one of the key findings in Frontline PBS and ProPublica reporter A.C. Thompson’s new investigation, “Documenting Hate: New American Nazis,” which premieres Tuesday evening on PBS. The documentary reveals the deep ties between the military and white supremacy, as Thompson examines the Pittsburgh shooting and the rise of violent hate groups such as Atomwaffen. Thompson interviews historian Kathleen Belew, who says there has always been a correlation in the U.S. between the aftermath of war and the rise of white supremacist violence. “If you look for instance at the surges in Ku Klux Klan membership, they align more consistently with the return of veterans from combat and the aftermath of war than they do with anti-immigration, populism, economic hardship or any of the other factors that historians have typically used to explain them,” she notes. We speak with A.C. Thompson in Boston. His investigation premieres Tuesday on PBS stations and online.

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"師聲對決" (Le Brio)

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

喜劇佳片推薦。一部從頭笑到尾--笑出感動的眼淚--的電影。

☻ "衣裝談吐可以影響一個人的社會價值嗎?"辯論的題目。

榮獲法國凱薩、盧米埃獎最佳影片、男主角、女新人三項大獎入圍肯定。

☻"Beyond the endearing acting of Daniel Auteuil and Camélia Jordana, that combination of emotion and intelligence is what elevates Le Brio.."

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Stockmarkets, " Red October"

Economist November 3, 2018

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

 

--倫敦經濟學人認為2018.9.30美國股票市場下滑可能顯示美國歷史上最長的經濟復甦達到頂點將要結束。

-- 美國對中國進口貨物提高關稅已引發國內物價上升。( " Import tarriffs are pushing up the cost of other inputs " )

-- 美中貿易戰拉下全世界的經濟成長。恢復世界經濟要更靠中國,美國已無能為力。

敬請賜教

林中斌試摘譯 2018.12.3

 

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Philip P.Pan, "The land that failed to fail"

New York Times November 23,2018

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.html

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

 

●中國今日極端貧窮的人口已降至1%以下。

●中國世界第一的項目包括:

 ●擁有住房的人口

 ●網路使用者

 ●大學畢業生

 ●10億美元的富豪

●去年9月,中國的共產政權超過前蘇聯共產政權的壽命69歲。

●中國私有經濟現在佔國家生產值60%,僱傭80%都市人口,產生90%的新工作。

 

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"The Chinese Dream"

JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZ and QUOCTRUNG BUI

New York Times November 27,2018

Accessed Dec 03 , 2018

●中國人民樂觀指數現在超過了美國和歐洲。

●中國人民改善自己生活的機會超過美國。

14億人口中8億人口已經脫離貧窮。

●中國以前有最多貧窮人口,現在有最多中產階級人口。

●從某種標準來看,今日中國社會比美國社會更平等。

 

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Alan Rappeport and Glenn Thrush,

“Trump’s Economic advisers biker over trade war”

New York Times November 14,2018

Accessed Nov 26, 2018

 

川普經濟政策官員對貿易戰政策嚴重分歧,並公開發言批評對方。

Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, accused Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser, of doing the president “a great disservice” by making hawkish comments about trade talks with China.

 

在下淺見是川普的對華鷹派鴿派都是他演戲的道具,看舞台需要而擺設。

川普非為信念不顧代價而鬥爭的冷戰武士。川普非甘迺迪總統般不惜(pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty. ....)一切為自由民主奮鬥。

川普對北韓先擺出不惜核子戰的強硬態度。今年二月,季辛吉都表示憂心要打核戰,演得真像!!然後川普與金正恩親熱見面,取得金當時廢核之承諾。

川普對北京貿易戰之強硬攻勢何嘗不是再見習近平之前的作態?先張後弛的戲碼將甫演一次。淺見敬請賜正。2018.11.26

 

全文聯結- https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/13/us/politics/trump-trade-war-economic-advisers.html

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