習莫強勢 戰將受制 中印和緩

accessed May 11, 2018

●中印和緩尚有另一因素:習近平與莫迪皆為心靈修行者。

20147月兩人首次見面,莫迪提出請求:修護中印邊境之22公里極端危險的乃堆拉山口朝聖道路。

20155月莫迪首次訪中國後不久於622日乃堆拉朝聖新路線正式開通。

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20141023 乃堆拉山口朝聖路線明夏開通.jpg

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林中斌

名人堂稿件

日期:20180510   本文字數:1100    目標字數:1100

「我們相信美國嗎?不大可能」

這是印度退休大使Rajiv DograSunday Times of India報紙二○一一年三月廿日的評論標題。理由是:「美國自我為中心,容易撿起新盟友,也隨意丟棄老朋友。…美國對印度的興趣是我們廣大的市場讓他賺錢,和我們重要的戰略地位,可幫他對付崛起的中國。如此而已。」當時四個月前,美總統歐巴馬剛訪印。

今年四月廿七日,印度總理莫迪二度訪問中國,廿二日才臨時宣布。他與習近平交談六次,其中三次兩人密會。雙方達成加強經濟戰略合作多項共識。莫迪原已計劃六月前往青島參加國際會議時見習近平。為何先多此一舉?此外,印度是去年十一月美國川普總統宣示「亞太戰略」(圍堵中國)美、日、澳、印四民主核心國之一。為何,莫迪向非民主的中國示好?

原因有三。一,如Dogra大使所示,印度對美國的殷勤懷有戒心。二,川普以美國國內為優先,東亞各國開始擔心,而程度不同的轉向北京,印度也不例外。三,更重要是:習莫強勢戰將受制。而且,習贏得莫的信任。

一四年九月十八日,是剛上台的印度總理莫迪生日。他盛情在故鄉家中設晚宴招待來訪的習近平。當日下午,一千名解放軍進駐拉達克中印未定界,一千五百名印軍立即向前對峙,情勢緊張。

宴席中,莫迪調侃的說,謝謝習主席送我的「意外生日禮物」。習只好說將盡速處理,顏面盡失。

根據九月廿三日Forbes Asia報導,雙方領袖顯然都遭遇內部軍人的扯肘。習回京後下令撤軍,訓令將領改進指揮鏈,服從他領導,並取消負責紀律的劉源和張幼俠原定撰昇軍委會副主席的計畫。

一三年五月,剛與習一起上任總理李克強訪問印度。而解放軍四月跨越拉達克未定界實際控制線,造成兩軍對峙近三週,事先破壞李訪印的外交成果。

負責中印邊境的成都軍區與圖謀奪習李政權的薄熙來關係深厚。軍區中的十四集團軍為其父薄一波創建。據說,一二年薄熙來曾策反十四集團軍流產。一六年,習近平趁軍區改戰區時裁撤十四軍。

一七年九月五日印度媒體Hindustan Times報導:一七年夏天,中印軍隊於洞朗對峙七十三日,在八月廿八日雙方達成協議同時後撤。同一天,習近平拔除聯合參謀部參謀長房峰輝。顯見,房峰輝曾阻礙和解,可能想藉由與印度打一仗,拉抬自己聲勢。

一七年十月中共十九大後,習近平對軍隊掌握更上層樓,對控制中印邊境解放軍應更到位。

一般來說,軍人靠打仗立功,不樂見與鄰國和解。中印皆然。

莫迪上任以來,政績斐然。一八年一月民調顯示,他的支持度高達五十三趴。他已是印度獨立以來歷任總理支持度比較下最高的,達廿八趴,遠超過第二位Indira Gandhi的廿趴。

相當於印度陸軍總司令的Bipin Rawat一七年初,號稱可同時進行兩個戰爭。莫迪壓得住鷹派將領,不只在一七年九月三日任命的鴿派女性國防部長,後者十月初尚且親赴中印邊境合什向解放軍祝福問候。

中印和緩序幕拉開了。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長

 

 

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中國的一帶一路是新殖民主義嗎? Is China's Silk Road project the new colonialism? ~ New York Times May 4, 2018

accessed May 9, 2018

*作者華府喬治城大學歷史系教授James Millward說不是。

*巧的是"環遊世界80"作者Jules Verne1893年寫過小說有內容是橫貫歐亞的鐵路直通北京!!(中斌按:他也寫過在下世紀,即廿世紀,美國將在Florida發射太空火箭)

*本文作者說一帶一路是超越國界為他國謀福利,至少比川普的保護主義和西歐排外主義好。

*他又說西方長期在非洲,卻不比中國減少非洲貧窮做得多。

*控訴中國陰險計劃統治世界,太一概而論了。

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韓國半島的骨牌效應

accessed May 9, 2018

●韓國半島局勢轉變像推骨牌般的一發不可收拾。

5/7-8習金二會秘密舉行,事後宣佈。

●之前說北京被邊緣化。嚴重誤判。

●兩韓統一,勢不可擋。

●北韓經濟第一,南韓安全第一。互補性高。

●北京已改念,支持兩韓統一。

●北京將獲半島無核化,薩德部署停滯或撤除。

●中日加速和解。

●東北亞趨勢中升美降。

http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20180508003899-260408?from=fb_share_mobile

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Is Democracy Dying? ~ Foreign Affairs May/June 2018

accessed May 4, 2018

- 最新美國權威的"外交事務"雙月刊(20185/6)整本主體是

"民主在死亡?全球報告"

-- 主要文章有

*"大轉變:美國民主如何失敗?"

*"無安全感的時代:美國民主仍能自救嗎?"

*"民主世紀結束:專權政治在全球昇起"

*"有中國特色的專權政治:北京幕後的改革"

*"東歐的非自由式革命:一條走向民主墜落的漫長道路"

林中斌 試譯 2018.5.4

 

意涵:

-- 這本"民主在死亡?全球報告""外交事務"雙月刊彰顯了一項新趨勢:

-- 民主不再是理所當然的最好政治制度。民主是最好政治制度的說法在民主的西方也有爭議。

-- 即使在一度為世界民主模範的美國,即使在美國高層政治菁英圈子中,民主不再是毫無疑問天經地義的最好制度了。

 

-- 巧合的是與亓樂義先生合作的拙作"撥雲見日",去年8月出版,已打光到這些主題包括

*美國民主問題

*東歐匈牙利總統奧班所提倡的"非自由式民主"

*中國特色的政體,即"北京模式",外表專權,幕後改革。

 

林中斌 補充 2018.5.4

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增至86成員 肯亞、巴紐入亞投行 from 旺報 2018.5.3

accessed May 3, 2018

AIIB members:86

(founded 2016 by China)

ADB members:67

(founded 1966 by the US)

亞投行2016成立,成員86

亞洲開發銀行1966成立,成員67

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A Trade War the U.S. Is Actually Winning, for Now ~ New York Times April 27, 2018

accessed May 2, 2018

美國的貿易戰居優勢,目前如此 (以後呢? 難說)

● 因為:貿易赤字和強勢貨幣是連體嬰。

佳作推薦!!(Author Lan Cao is a novelist and a professor of international economic law at Chapman University's Dale E. Fowler School of Law in Orange, California. She was born in Saigon in 1961. Two of her novels are "Monkey Bridge", and "The Lotus and the Storm")

林中斌 2018.5.2

● Triffin’s dilemma:Trade deficits and strong currency are connected.

● After 1974, the U.S. has been enjoying a strong currency, which is an “exorbitant privilege”

● A strong dollar makes American exports expensive to the rest of the world. American exports decline, imports increase, and the result is trade deficits.

● China is trying to make Renminbi a global reserve currency (a world’s leading currency). “This is a strategic priority for China, and it is willing to wait.”

● The author is warning Washington with subtlety by stating at the end:“While the president and his supporters raise doubts about open trade, the dollar’s supremacy is closely tied to it. There is nothing guaranteed about that status, or all the benefit that come with it.”

 

Chong-Pin Lin May 2, 2018

20180420 A trade war the U.S. is actually winning, for now.jpg

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A Trade War the U.S. Is Actually Winning, for Now

By Lan Cao

Ms. Cao is a professor of international economic law.

April 26, 2018

 

The escalating trade war between the United States and China, with the Trump administration considering $100 billion in punitive tariffs in response to China’s $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs, obscures a more important source of conflict: China’s desire to someday establish the yuan as a global reserve currency, on a par with the dollar.

The dollar’s status is inextricably linked to international trade. Because the dollar reigns supreme in the trading system, other countries need to accumulate dollars. Most international trade is conducted using the dollar, even if the United States is not a party to the transaction.

The United States wasn’t always so dominant. After the 1971 decision to end the link between the value of the dollar and gold reserves, the dollar became a currency much like any other. But in 1974, the United States and Saudi Arabia struck an agreement in which the Saudis and the other Gulf states supported the dollar as the primary medium of exchange for oil exports. Thus, oil and other commodities are priced in dollars, so any country that buys oil must build up its dollar reserves to pay for it — mostly by exporting its goods and services so that it can receive dollars as payment.

Once established as a global reserve currency, the dollar has been kept strong by sustained demand for it, and a strong dollar makes American exports expensive to the rest of the world. American exports decline, imports increase, and a result is the trade deficit. Testifying before Congress in 1960, the economist Robert Triffin observed that the dollar’s global reserve status depends on the willingness of the United States to run trade deficits. This relationship, known as Triffin’s Dilemma, doesn’t always hold true (other countries have had reserve currencies and a trade surplus), but the American trade deficit with China, $375.2 billion last year, offers perhaps the best example of how a strong currency and trade deficits are connected.

Still, there are enormous benefits to being able to print paper money and have the world treat it as if it were gold. Other countries need American dollars, and they are willing to pay a premium to hold them. Valery Giscard d’Estaing, finance minister of France from 1962 to 1966, called this an “exorbitant privilege.” Once they have amassed those all-important dollars, countries use them to buy United States Treasury bonds. (China alone held $1.2 trillion dollars of United States government debt at the end of 2017.) This enormous global demand for American debt means that the United States can borrow at relatively low interest rates, financing its budget deficits away.

The “exorbitant privilege” extends to ordinary Americans, who have access to a vast supply of credit and can borrow to buy homes and cars at lower interest rates.

As the trade war rhetoric escalates, some raise the fear that China could sell off its dollar-denominated assets, which could trigger a rise in interest rates, inflation and possibly devaluation of the dollar. Even the threat of a sudden sell-off can stir up trouble in global currency markets. China could also diversify its cash reserves away from the dollar and acquire yen, euro or sterling instruments, or commodities such as gold. Indeed, China has already been accumulating gold, ranking as one of the world’s largest importers of it.

China and the United States are too closely economically intertwined via the dollar to make that a credible fear. United States treasuries are still the world’s safe haven of choice. And selling off American debt would cause the yuan to appreciate, which would put China’s exports at a disadvantage.

Still, China is clearly taking steps to ensure a larger role for its currency. In 2015, the yuan was designated by the International Monetary Fund as one of five elite currencies in the world, along with the dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen. China is putting in place a pilot program with Russia and Angola, in which it can buy oil with yuan instead of with dollars. As the biggest importer of crude oil in the world, China believes it has the purchasing power to push for settlement in yuan. Even Saudi Arabia, a stalwart American ally, is under increasing pressure to accept yuan for its oil trade. If the yuan does become a global reserve currency, China, too, could see its influence and economic power expand even further.

 

This is a strategic priority for China, and it is willing to wait. Although it is impossible to predict whether or when the dollar will be dethroned, history offers some clues: The pound sterling reigned supreme before the dollar gradually dislodged it. While the president and his supporters raise doubts about open trade, the dollar’s supremacy is closely tied to it. There is nothing guaranteed about that status, or all the benefits that come with it.

 

Lan Cao is a novelist and a professor of international economic law at Chapman University’s Dale E. Fowler School of Law in Orange, Calif.

 

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川普在美國聲勢愈來愈旺。很可能連任。Trump is winning domestically.

accessed May 2, 2018

Most likely he will finish this term and may even get re-elected.

--共和黨國會競選人男女都在模仿他粗俗的風格。民主黨也跟進。

--成功的彈劾美國總統幾乎不能。歷史上沒發生過。

--連追查川普的特別檢察官穆勒都可能被他免職。

林中斌 2018.5.2

 

Trump is winning domestically.

Most likely he will finish this term and may even get re-elected.

●Not only the Republican candidates, both male and female, for the coming elections are mimicking the President in campaigning style, but also some Democrats.

-- Philippe Reines, a longterm adviser for Hillary, recently wrote "He (Trump) has no dignity. He leaves not attack unanswered. I spent 15 years recommending ignoring stupidity.... I was wrong."

--Martha McSally, a Republican running for the Arizona Senate seat was proud of having told Washington Politicians to “grow a pair of ovaries”.

(Jeremy Peters, "Borrowing Trump's Sound and Fury" International New York Times April 24, 2018) https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/us/politics/trump-republican-party.html

● It is almost impossible to unseat president Trump through impeachment, because “Enough of the public and the political class abhor impeachment.”

--“America has ever impeached only two presidents (Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998-99), but in both cases the Senate refused conviction, meaning that both men remained in office”. The threshold in the Senate for approving an impeachment is too high, 2/3 majority.

--Even Andrew Johnson’s political enemies refused to impeach him.

--Even as the Lewinsky situation unfolded, Bill Clinton’s job approval rate went up, not down.

-- Today, trying to impeach and remove Trump could boost his popularity.

(Charles Blow, “America abhors impeachment” INYT April 24, 2018)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/opinion/trump-impeachement-america.html

● As things stand now, the possibility of President Trump firing the Special Counsel Robert Mueller III and dismantle the latter’s office cannot be ruled out.

(John Tye and Mark Zaid, “Robert Mueller’s Last Resort” INYT April 28, 2018)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/opinion/robert-mueller-legal-whistleblowing.html

 

Chong-Pin Lin May 2, 2018

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烽煙砲火下的校歌

accessed April 30, 2018

-- 1940年在昆明。中日戰爭砲火中。28歲自北平逃難來此的女青年為西南聯大/雲南附屬中學校歌填詞,她二弟作曲。

-- 1941年,女青年恨為女身不能從軍,認識空軍飛行軍官。一個月後,不顧父親反對,下嫁之。擇54日為婚期,紀念191954運動。

-- 1942年,57日嬰兒不足月早產。鄰居姑嫂睥見面如象牙毫無血色的大頭嬰,不禁搖頭。憂其不久於世。

-- 有幸昔之弱嬰,今將渡過75跨向76年。在下也。

-- 當時填詞愛國女青年,先母台大中文系教授張敬(清徽)。飛行軍官先父林文奎。當時作曲青年先二舅南開大學中文系主任張清常。

-- 感謝學姊哈佛大學圖書館先進楊慶儀掘出塵封的校歌提供紀念。

林中斌 2018.4.30

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失聰復得記

林中斌 2018.4.18

accessed April 18, 2018

「你真的聽得見嗎?」

前幾天內人還在問。事情已經過了六十天了,她仍然不敢相信。

去年十月初的周六,我去宜蘭登山。回家後幾天內,右耳聽力急速退化。

回想起來,大概是當天淋了些雨。下山後趕公車,忘記馬上換乾衣服,著涼感冒,由耳鼻阻塞引起。即使如此解釋符合邏輯,但是仍然相當勉強。因為之前數十年感冒無數次,從未如此嚴重的影響聽力。

這意外事件給未來蒙上一層黑霧。稱之為人生小型危機並不為過。

因為左耳在過去廿多年逐漸衰退,聽力已幾乎完全喪失。之前全靠尚未失聰的右耳與人互動。

雙耳失聰的我如何擔負數月前已排定的行程--國際會議主題演講、媒體深度訪問、學術會議主持等?

裝助聽器吧!這就是人生。前生的業障啦!以前自己做的,現在自己受。認了!沒什麼好難過的。

自我反思後如此決定。

德國助聽器公司好意先借我試用高級產品兩週。他們遵行母公司規定,提醒顧客不要放棄治療,同時推薦一位附近診所的醫師。後者又推薦新店有規模醫院的大牌醫師。

於是,開始了一場長達四週,每次花耗上下午的耳科醫療折騰之旅。至今回想,猶如惡夢。

忙碌的大牌醫師,在就醫者掛號苦等之後才蒙召見。但是大牌時間寶貴,無暇細聽徵狀,無暇解釋久等才輪到的測試所得的數據,也無暇回答問題。內耳測試尤其令人難忘。執行護士說明不清,就醫者竟然苦躺床上一小時半,猶如在意識的大海中黑夜航行,茫然不知目的何在,也不知何時靠岸。

第四次就醫之後,醫師下最後診斷:內耳神經老化而且受損,醫院將請專人協助病患選購助聽器。意思是:醫療無望,但是你還要再來。

那是十二月中的事。

一位關心的年輕朋友得知如此的醫療「判決」,不服氣。他勸已認命的我找第二個意見。

「之前,我肩膀受傷。醫師說要開刀。您堅持我要避免開刀,以免斬斷了身體氣血的通路,一定要找第二個意見。後來,另一位醫師說不必開刀。靠療養和服用中藥,我的肩膀完全康復了。如今,您也應該找第二個意見。」

他見我毫無行動,於是積極打聽優良的耳科醫師。

今年一月底,他通過朋友安排我去亞東醫院看耳科主任陳光超醫師。那天,他們開車來接。盛情感人。我雖已不抱希望,但不得不「配合演出」。

電腦掛號,掌握時間。到醫院報到後,很快的進行測試,雖然儀器和項目多,但效率高,快速完成。

陳醫師態度友善熱情,稍作詢問,審視測試結果,便說:

「我不同意之前的診斷。讓我檢視你雙耳。」

他清理我外耳後,進行中耳抽水。

突然,雙耳都豁然開朗!

我對陪伴的內人說:「又可以聽音樂了!

「我想你聽的是古典音樂,是嗎?

多聽沒錯。因為古典音樂高低頻率範圍廣闊,遠超過流行音樂。尤其是聽高頻會刺激聽神經,延遲老化。

根據十五篇研究報告,從事音樂的人聽神經老化比一般晚十年。這雖然不構成耳科領域裡的共識,但不妨嘗試。」

他說得有根據、有分寸。

整個過程不過一小時。

我回家後,頗不習慣。聽關門的聲音轟然大響,洗碗碟的聲音,尖銳刺耳。第二天共進早餐時,請內人說話不必如此大聲。出門後,抬頭查看天空是否有轟炸機或在打雷。其實只是風吹過廿多年失聰左耳外部渦輪摩擦出聲而已。

一週後,陳醫師出國演講(他是國際知名的耳科學者)。兩週後見陳醫師複診,他說以後不用來了。

後記:

●感謝青年朋友湯名暉先生費心尋醫、烏凌翔先生引見陳醫師並開車接送。

●隨著兩耳聽力恢復,今年一月突發而前所未有的暈眩症也在二月後自動痊癒。更妙的是,去年四月十一日半夜突發而也前所未有的缺氧症(panic attack 中文翻譯雖並不貼切為「恐慌症」)經過一年忍耐不適持續照舊登山後,如今不斷改進已接近痊癒。

●感謝內人永遠耐心永遠樂觀的陪伴協助。感謝虛空界無形力量的恩典與呵護。

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Let's celebrate!

I can hear again.

accessed April 18, 2018

Let's celebrate!

I can hear again.

Chong-Pin Lin April 18, 2018

失聰復得!

慶祝啊!!

林中斌 2018.4.18

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6umanZrSCY&feature=share

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