A difficult diplomatic trip to India

accessed Sep 07, 2018


去年11月,川普見印度總理莫迪後嘲笑後者英文口音。這video在德里瘋狂傳開。
川普告訴莫迪不可買俄國武器,和伊朗石油。逼得印度轉向俄國和中國,但印度以中國為主要威脅。德里陷入兩難。
林中斌 2018.9.7

 

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鐵腕普丁與民共賞諷刺政府節目

accessed Sep 10, 2018


台上表演諷刺俄羅斯官員貪腐享福、人民生活困苦的節目。
台下坐在一般群眾席次的俄羅斯總統普丁,燦爛的與民同笑。
鐵腕統治國家的普丁,無怪享受高達85%的支持度(即使西方民調機構在俄羅斯也獲得同樣的支持數據)
視頻裡貪得無厭的警官,榨乾被罰的汽車司機後,準備離去,於是引述俄羅斯大詩人普希金的名句,以"自圓其貪"。才說第一句,觀眾已爆出大笑。
苦難的俄羅斯民族,靠的是動人的音樂和感人的詩句,度過千百年的外在環境的折磨,而靠堅忍的精神存活至今。
林中斌  2018.9.11

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莫斯科的52座詩人雕像
林中斌 

名人堂稿件
2010.12.6 本文字數:1196 目標字數:1200

賓利是頂級豪華車,一輛一千多萬台幣。俄羅斯在十年前全國一部都沒,去年總數一百零三。
這項時代雜誌十二月六日的報導,令我一震。眼前景象穿過時光隧道,回到十五年前十二月的莫斯科。我站在銀行外排隊。盧布用完,要用美金換。零下溫度,陰雲密佈,雖厚大衣裹身,仍酷寒入骨。
每十五分鐘,軍車載了荷槍實彈的士兵,衝進銀行,背走一大袋現鈔。銀行怕搶,不放心顧客進入,更不放心存放現款。我抬頭看銀行外電子顯示匯率牌:美金一元對盧布六萬多。盧布數字幾分鐘就跳高一次!
那時,前蘇聯剛解體,經濟崩潰,生活困頓,人口損失嚴重,一年幾乎減一百萬!所見到的市民,面色蒼白(營養不良),毫無笑容。
但是,他們衣服樸素整潔,抬頭挺胸,顯露無言的尊嚴。地鐵乾淨,乘客極守秩序。
晚上,我去柴可夫斯基演奏廳,聽音樂。票價不便宜,竟然客滿!
接待我們的人說:「莫斯科一大特色,是歷年來豎立了五十二座詩人雕像。」
心想世界上首都銅像盡是政治領袖、軍事英雄。有那個國家首都豎立數十詩人雕像?俄國詩傳統不過三百年。詩有上千年歷史的中國首都,有多少詩人雕像?
那句話現在回想,依然令我感動。俄羅斯民族稱斯拉夫Slav,其原意就是奴隸slave。這個歷史上已備受鞭躂的民族,再歷經七十年共產黨統治,更沒有自由。共黨政權崩解後,又沒有食物。這些都可以忍。但是不能沒有詩,不能沒有音樂。正因如此,民族的靈魂受苦難而堅韌,潤弦歌而昇華。
我對自己說:俄羅斯將再起!
兩年後,一九九七,我重返莫斯科。車子路過一座建築,金頂閃閃發光。當地朋友高興的告訴我,「基督救世主大教堂」由仍然貧窮的人民集體捐款已重建了。
此教堂在一八一二年拿破崙攻俄失敗後建立,感謝上蒼的庇佑,並紀念為國捐軀的忠魂。一九三一年,被無神論的共產政權爆破,預備樹立巨大的列寧像。後因希特勒進兵蘇聯,全國動員作戰而做罷。此教堂能在經濟蕭條時重建,放射出民族未來的曙光。
果然,一九九八年,俄羅斯經濟便開始谷底回升,一路直線成長到二○○八年,成為金磚四國之一。雖然今年第二季度成長只五點二%,殿後金磚其他三國,卻遠超過美(三點二%)、日(一點九%)、德(三點七%)、法(一點七%)
○○七年,下滑了十年的人口開始止滑。原來侵噬國民生命的問題如酗酒、謀殺已然穩住。
隨了俄羅斯經濟社會復甦,它的外交開始顯露自信,內政展現希望。
七年之後,俄國進入美國後院。那年,俄艦在二戰後首度穿越巴拿馬運河。次年,俄國與委內瑞拉在委國領海舉行海空軍事演習。今年十一月,莫斯科向東西齊頭並進。它宣布將出售給北京本已取消的蘇凱卅五先進戰機,又同意協助以前敵人北約發展飛彈防禦。
九三年,俄國法庭實行陪審制度。被告無罪釋放的比例,由原先一%大幅提昇至卄%。最近,莫斯科市中心首度允許反對黨遊行。政府宣布人民戶口可以自由移動。原先被禁的文學巨著索爾仁尼琴的「古拉格群島」現在為高中生必讀。
偉大的俄羅斯詩人普希金(一七八九至一八三七),如天上有知,應在微笑。

林中斌為淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所教授

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超越親美親中保持距離

accessed Sep 10, 2018


馬來西亞首位華裔國防部長,道出東亞的中國鄰居都想追求的“兩面下注”(hedging)的外交企望。
林中斌 2018.9.11
 

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中日告別8年對抗

accessed Sep 10, 2018


其實,20176月,安倍有別以往抗拒" 一帶一路",表示將考慮參與" 一帶一路",東京已開始調整日本在美國中國之間的定位:向中方漸漸移動。
如今中日加速接近。
因素:
●.安倍對川普多變不放心。何況川普也對日本開貿易戰。
習近平一直對日留有餘地。可能受劉亞洲多年前便發表的主張影響:中國應向前看,勿受限於二戰之恩怨。因為日本對中國甚為重要。
在下淺見,敬請賜教。
林中斌 2018.9.10

 

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Leadership in Turbulent Times

accessed Sep 11, 2018

 

這篇書評涵蓋美國四位領導國家度過激盪危機的總統的生平。對受挫折的年輕朋友,在下摘述幾點,敬請卓參

青年時期遭受的打擊和挫折對四位總統是必修之課。

●我們多知道林肯的最愛早死,他陷入嚴重憂鬱症,想自殺。

"Abraham Lincoln as a young man withstood a depression so severe that his friends moved all the sharp objects from his room."

●我(們或許)不知道老羅斯褔的愛妻和慈母在24小時內雙雙逝去!!老羅斯褔功業之外,出版國42本書,包括歷史、製革、賞鳥、環保等等。在他後來文武全才的一生中,再也絕口不提其亡妻!!

●小羅斯福樂觀燦爛地笑容後,終身為小兒痲痹症所苦。

 

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潛艦國造?核四2.0

accessed Sep 12, 2018

 

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大逆轉"、美國教授遭北大解聘"

accessed Sep 12, 2018

 

兩則報導呈現此趨勢之兩面

 

1.大逆轉 陸留美人才83%海歸

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2.美國教授遭北大解聘驅逐 臨行之言 字字扎心!
連結https://www.secretchina.com/news/b5/2018/09/12/870651.html

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Japan and the US
Watching Him Nervously

accessed Sep 17, 2018

 

日美關係:東京不安的看著川普
The Alliance between Japan and America is under unprecedented stress, mainly because of America's president. There are worries in Tokyo that Mr. Trump might strike a deal with North Korea's leader that protects America but leaves Japan exposed to a North Korean attack.

日本擔心川普會跟金正恩達成協議, 保護了美國,卻讓日本暴露在北韓攻擊的危險之下。
Trump resents spending so much on deployments abroad including on Japan. He is obsessed with America's trade deficits with Japan. Trump has been neglecting Abe while interacting with Kim Jong Un. Trump appears ready to exploit military ties with Japan as bargaining chips in economic affairs.

川普抱怨日本佔美國便宜,因為川普很在意日貿易逆差大。川普跟金正恩熱絡來往,冷落安倍。似乎美國要用美日軍事同盟為價碼逼日本在經貿上讓步。
Abe is now trying to pursue an independent foreign policy separating military and politcal/economic policies

and to improve relations with both Putin and Xi jinping as a balance to the tensions between Tokyo and Washington.

安倍在新情勢下把軍事和政經分離。軍事仍然保持與美同盟。政治外交上,他追尋獨立外交,與中俄交好。

Chong-Pin Lin summary attempted September 17, 2018

林中斌 試摘譯 2018.9.17

 

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《北風》電影

accessed Sep 16, 2018

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這部南韓參展坎城影展的力作,根據「黑金星」事實所改編。全片拍攝極具真實感,尤其金正日那幾幕,幾乎可亂真。

The Korean award-winning film "The Spy Gone North" is an impressively realistic, suspense-filled, and ultimately uplifting film based on the true story of "Black Venus".

 

情節緊張、演技洗鍊。雖然充滿爾愚爾詐,但是片子最後意外的呈現出中低層情報人員經歷生死考驗而超越敵我的情誼和義氣,著實感人。尤其與上層官員政客卑鄙自私對比下,顯得人性的高貴。

有些場景在台灣拍攝。

極為推薦的另類佳片。

林中斌 2018.9.16

 

Although the story is filled with intrigue and distrust, the noble brotherly bond between low-ranking operatives across the line between enemies that was formed through the crucible of life-threatening danger is deeply moving. It is especially so as in contrast to the selfish and base calculations of the high-ranking officials and politicians.

Rotten Tomatoes rated it “Five Stars out of Five”

Highly recommended.

Chong-Pin Lin September 16, 2018

 

The Spy Gone North (2018) - Rotten Tomatoes

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_spy_gone_north/

評分:100% Rotten Tomatoes rated it “Five Stars out of Five”

 

In 1993 Korea, the only country where the Cold War continues, tensions surrounding the development of nuclear weapons escalate. Seok-young Park, an army major in the South Korea military intelligence with the code name 'Black Venus' is assigned a mission to infiltrate the North Korean nuclear facility. Seok-young disguises himself as a South Korean businessman working on a collaborative project with North Korea, and approaches Myung-woon Lee, a North Korean high official based in Beijing. After laying down groundwork for years, Seok-young finally manages to win the North Korean ruling class' trust and secure a contract for joint advertising. However, Seok-young soon discovers that both North and South Korea are making secret deals for their own interests in the 1998 South Korea presidential election.

 

《北風》是一部2018年劇情片,由尹鍾彬執導的一部韓國劇情片。入圍第71屆坎城影展午夜單元。本片獲得第23屆釜山影展最佳影片、導演、最佳男主角、男配角、劇本及美術獎7項大獎提名,從演技到技術全方面獲得評審的肯定。

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Jennifer Schuessler, “Calligraphy? Chicken scratch? Both, actually”

The New York Times International Edition,

July 19, 2018

accessed July 24, 2018

http://iht.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

 

書法表露人格。中西皆然。
左邊是7歲的小女孩一絲不苟的書信。她將統治日不落的大帝國。右邊是加速帝俄朝廷崩潰的"瘋僧"

Compare the handwritings. On the left is the tidy letter of a seven-year-old girl who would become queen ruling an empire that saw no setting sun. On the right is that of the "mad monk" who corrupted the Tsarist Russian court before it collapsed in 1917. (Queen Victoria vs Rasputin)

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We are living in a golden age of both fretting about handwriting and fetishizing it. Polemicists lament that cursive is going the way of the dodo. Meanwhile, oldschool devotees of pen and paper post their work on social media with hashtags like #snailmail and #penpal.

“The Magic of Handwriting,” an exhibition at the Morgan Library & Museum in New York, might seem at first glance to be part of this nostalgia. Instead, it simply luxuriates in the humble, intimate and sometimes very messy traces that some of the great figures of history have left behind.

The show features some 140 items from the encyclopedic holdings of the Brazilian collector Pedro Corrêa do Lago, who got his start at the age of 11, when he wrote to prominent figures to ask for their autographs. Today, he owns roughly 100,000 letters, notes, receipts, manuscripts, signed photographs and other pieces documenting notable lives in the arts, politics, science and other fields.

During an interview at the museum, the loquacious Mr. Corrêa do Lago, 60, called his collection “a symbolic snapshot of Western culture over the past 500 years.” He also sees it as it the product a kind of madness. “It became an absolutely crazy project that drowned all the money I made,” he said, with a laugh. “I should be in a straitjacket.”

Here is a sampling of items from the exhibition, and the sometimes quirky, sidelong glances they offer at their creators.

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