美若仍軍事優先 恐步蘇聯後塵

accessed February 6, 2018

林中斌

名人堂稿件

日期:20180206 本文字數:1100 目標字數:1100

背負沉重國債的美國,若花大錢對付中國軍事威脅,可能步前蘇聯後塵。冷戰末期莫斯科憂心「美國軍事威脅」,尤其是雷根總統宣稱的「星戰」計畫,不顧國內經濟困難,花錢堆積核武飛彈,結果一個都沒用,卻把自己搞垮了。

二月一日,美總統川普「國情咨文」中表示針對「流氓國家、恐怖組織、及中俄的威脅」美國將擴軍包括增加核子武器。專家估計,單算核武更新就要遠超過歐巴馬任內已通過的卅年花費一點二兆美元。

似乎,川普政府忘卻了二○一○年美國參謀聯席會主席麥可˙穆倫上將所說的:「我們最大的安全威脅是國債。」

去年十一月廿二日,美國艦載C-2運輸機墜落沖繩海域,是第七艦隊年初以來第六次非戰鬥事故。兩天後,CNN 報導美國參議院軍事委員會主席麥肯對此類事故歸咎於訓練不足、人員短缺、主要是經費限縮。

廿一世紀的中國,以超軍事手段(經濟、外交、文化、旅遊、傳媒等)打前鋒,以快速提升的軍力為後盾,目標為「不戰而主東亞」,甚至「不戰而主歐亞」。善於「鬥而不破」,軍事衝突盡量避免。北京進行「超軍事手段優先」大戰略,「攻城掠地」般的擴展全球影響力。美國卻長期誤判,全力以軍事圍堵中國。遲至今日,部分美國人始驚覺,警告中方經濟文化戰略的犀利。

此情形有如,一方部署重兵在西面,不料對方由東面進攻,如入無人之境。

八○年鄧小平啟動改革開放。廿一年後,中國GDP開始每年十趴以上成長。中國雖崛起,比窮困的當年,卻愈不願意打仗。

四九年建國至八九年,卅年中北京對外發動五次戰爭:金門戰役、金馬砲戰、韓戰、中印戰爭、中越戰爭。

八九至一八年,四十年中北京對外戰爭,除八八年中越赤瓜礁衝突之外,無!同一時期,華府對外七次用兵(LebanonGranadaPanamaSomaliaKosovoAfghanistanIraq)包括兩次佔領他國;莫斯科對外五次用兵(AfghanistanGeorgiaChechniaUkraineSyria),三次佔領他國。對比何其強烈。

無怪乎,去年十二月廿二日,美國歐巴馬總統時主導國安會的Susan Rice博士在《紐約時報》上寫:「中國從未非法佔領過它的鄰居。」

中美戰略思維根本不同,來源久遠。兩千多年前,中國兵聖孫子說:「不戰而屈人之兵,善之善也。」要獲得勝利,暴力最好不用。兩百年前,西方兵聖克勞賽維茲卻說:「戰爭是暴力推展到極致。」要獲得勝利,暴力越多越有效果。

中國歷史上經典的戰役決勝的關鍵常不是刀、兵、浴血純軍事手段,而是超軍事手段如水淹(濰水之戰)、火攻(赤壁之戰)、塵擾(城濮之戰)、插旗(井陘之戰)、用間 (淝水之戰)等。西方名將許多以持續猛攻致勝,如凱撒大帝和美國內戰獲勝的格蘭特將軍,巧戰而勝的屬於非主流。

○六年,北京人民出版社秉承上意出版《大國崛起》,歸納過去五百年九個大國的興衰。過度用兵是衰落一致的原因。

中國崛起反而慎戰,美國內虛反而好戰。歷史的演變何其戲劇化!

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長,甫發表新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》

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Could This Be It?

accessed February 1, 2018

 

Time February 5, 2018 p.22.

這是時代雜誌這期的一句話。

Louis XIV ruled from 1643 to 1715 for 72 years 3 months 18 days, the longest ruling monarch on record.

美國霸權時代就此在72年後結束了嗎?

林中斌 2018.2.1

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China Wins Its Fight Over Flights With Rival Taiwan

accessed January 29, 2018

 

這是一篇登載於Forbes 雜誌有關M503航線兩岸鬥法的分析。作者來信謝謝在下提供的淺見。他說此篇點閱已超過一萬,並被編輯選為推薦報導。

林中斌 2018.1.29

"The hard prong had already reached a point of saturation,” says Lin Chong-pin, a retired strategic studies professor, referring to acts such as military maneuvers. “There’s no point in going further.”

 

Hi Mr. Lin,

Thanks for your quotes last week. This story topped 10,000 views and received an "editor's pick" mention on Forbes

Ralph Jennings

Chong-Pin Lin January 29, 2018

 

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China Wins Its Fight Over Flights With Rival Taiwan

 

China and Taiwan have been fighting over civilian aviation most of this month. China opened four aircraft routes in the 160-kilometer-wide ocean strait between them January 4, angering Taiwan because it wasn’t consulted. One route, code-named M503, connects Shanghai to Hong Kong. Letting planes fly the new routes so close to a yours-and-mine median line in endangers flights in and around Taiwan, Taiwan's Civil Aeronautics Administration says in a Chinese-language statement here.

China has essentially won this battle. First, here’s how it started:

Cross-straight relations are a little icy

Leaders in Beijing authorized the flight paths, over Taiwan’s complaints, for political reasons, scholars and legislators in Taipei say. The action “pushes Taiwan into a corner” and follows a series of other moves aimed at the government in Taipei, ruling party lawmaker Lo Chih-cheng said in an interview for this post. China sees self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory.

China wants eventual unification with Taiwan, citing unfinished business from the Chinese civil war of the 1940s. But in 2008 China and Taiwan agreed to open direct flights as the start to building stronger economic relations.

Since Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, relations have deteriorated because Chinese officials resent Tsai for rejecting their idea that both sides belong to one country. During her term to date, Beijing has also passed military aircraft near Taiwan, cut back on tourism and let two Taiwanese diplomatic allies switch allegiance. Usually Taiwan just complains. But after the air routes opened, Taiwan answered by freezing an application from two of the other side’s airlines, China Eastern and Xiamen Air, to add a combined 176 flights next month for the Lunar New Year holiday hat both sides celebrate.

How the battle was won

China didn’t openly re-retaliate against the freeze in approving extra flights, but it essentially won the battle.

It had a massive advantage. The two airlines stuck on hold have plenty of business elsewhere, both domestic and offshore. China’s new flight routes include the full opening of a third major path, called M503, between the crowded skies around Shanghai and those over Hong Kong. That means shorter waits before takeoff on either side, for any airline, says Eric Lin, aviation analyst with the investment bank UBS in Hong Kong. Airport delays have become a notorious problem in China due to gluts of traffic, he says.

China as a member of the U.N. International Civil Aviation Administration has already gained formal, international approval for the routes. Taiwan is not a U.N. member.

Open hard-fisted retaliation against Taiwan’s freezing of the extra holiday flights would risk angering the island’s public, pushing voters in turn to elect leaders who take a harder line toward Beijing than Tsai does. "The hard prong had already reached a point of saturation,” says Lin Chong-pin, a retired strategic studies professor, referring to acts such as military maneuvers. “There’s no point in going further.”

No need, either. The freezing of holiday flights sort of backfired on its own. A Chinese government-linked association of Taiwanese business people, the Association of Taiwan Investment Enterprises on the Mainland on Saturday accused Taiwan's move of "trampling on the rights of Taiwanese business people," per this news report by a mainstream Taiwan newspaper.

Beijing’s deflection of the flight issue to the business association suggests it wants Taiwanese to blame their own government for any trouble getting home for the holiday, which starts February 16. If the estimated 1 million Taiwanese investors and their family members in China can’t get home smoothly for lack of extra flights, who would they blame, the pioneer of new air routes or the freezer of additional flights? Ditto for tourists in China wondering whether to travel in Taiwan for the same holiday. At least that's how China might frame things.

"It's Tsai's first act of retaliation, but given cross-Strait traffic, it hurts travelers more, rather than China," says Joanna Lei, chief executive officer of the Chunghua 21st Century think tank in Taiwan.

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習近平對台兩手策略

accessed January 25, 2018

 

●以下是 經濟學人(Economist)"榕樹" (Banyan)專欄記者 Dominic Ziegler 2018116日電話訪問之後於118日所發表的英文文字,以及123ETtoday新聞雲所摘譯發表之中文報導。中文報導在前,英文專欄文字隨後。

●所附圖一為經濟學人(Economist)"榕樹" (Banyan)專欄。

●所附圖二為117日在下於Assurex 主題演講中圖片之一(習對台之軟硬兩手策略:Xi's Two-pronged Taiwan Tactics),曾事先寄給記者參考。

敬請卓參指教。

林中斌 2018.1.25

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經濟學人:陸對台青年釋利多 新招「軟硬兼施」改變看法

ETtoday新聞雲 20180123 17:17

https://www.ettoday.net/news/20180123/1098694.htm 下載2018.1.25

國際中心/綜合報導

最新一期《經濟學人》(The Economist)雜誌撰文評論,認為中方對台灣採取軟硬兼施的態度,雖然一方面對外資企業施壓,又片面啟用M503航線,但另一方面,又願意給予台灣年輕人高薪、創業基金,甚至是住房補助,扭轉了不少年輕人對中國大陸的看法。

文中首先指出,中方近來對台動作頻頻,像是要求有航班飛往中國大陸的航空公司「更正」將台灣列為國家的網頁,甚至關閉全球最大的連鎖飯店集團之一的萬豪酒店的中文網站,作為萬豪酒店在問卷中將台灣列為國家的懲戒。

除了害怕影響生意,這些外資企業更怕觸犯中國大陸的網路與國家安全法規。萬豪酒店多次公開道歉,連CEO也寫信致歉,「我們絕不支持任何損害中國主權和領土完整的任何分裂組織」達美航空公司則為了傷害人民感情道歉,ZARA甚至承諾願意「自我審查」。

文章也寫道,中方的做法是要壓縮台灣的外交空間,同時對台施加心理壓力。雖然台灣總統蔡英文上台時,做出不會破壞兩岸關係的承諾,但對中方而言還不夠,並對蔡英文不承認九二共識感到不滿。

習近平雖然沒在十九大上展現對台更強硬的政策,但對台毫不妥協的言論,也讓他贏得比起其他議題更長的掌聲。文中指出,中方將會持續施壓,在外交方面,自從巴拿馬去年跟台灣斷交後,邦交國只剩下20個,可能會繼續減少,宏都拉斯、帛琉和聖露西亞都有可能是下一個。在國防方面也有動作,除了啟用M503航道,2016年起中方軍機也開始「繞台」巡邏,先前在朱日和的閱兵,還出現與台灣總統府相似的建築物。

然而這些都不是新招,經濟學人認為,習近平的創新之處在於對台灣年輕人釋出利多,像是為大學教授提供比在台灣更高的薪資、各省成立研究中心鎖定招攬台灣年輕人,甚至在南部的東莞市,台灣科技企業家可免費獲得創業資金及免費的辦公室。

文末引用了前國防部副部長林中斌(Chong-Pin Lin)的話指出,這是習近平「軟硬兼施」的做法,在某些方面似乎正在改變台灣人對中國大陸的看法。文中也提到,蔡英文曾承諾要給年輕人更多的機會,但一直沒有太多進展,「台灣的經濟持續低迷,年輕人認為老一輩佔走了資源,在兩岸關係上,蔡英文得到的指責比習近平還多。」最近一個民調甚至顯示,台灣人民對習近平的好感度高於蔡英文,雖然他們並不欣賞對岸的政治文化,但中方正在馴化台灣年輕人,讓他們未來不會反咬自己一口。

 

Banyan

China is getting tougher on Taiwan

It is also luring its people

Economist Jan 18th 2018

https://www.economist.com/…/21735075-it-also-luring-its-peo…

accessed January 25, 2018

 

WHEN is a country with its own territory, laws, elected government and army not a country? Answer: when China deems it so. In recent days Chinese officials have ordered foreign businesses, including airlines operating flights to China, to “correct” websites that list Taiwan as a country, as well as remove images of the island-state’s flag. Censors even shut down the Chinese website of Marriott, one of the world’s biggest hotel chains, for a week as punishment for categorising Taiwan as a country in a customer questionnaire (the firm caused additional offence by putting Hong Kong, Macau and Tibet in the same category, which—to be fair to China—they are not).

China’s rabidly nationalist netizens have even called for a boycott of Marriott. But more than losing business, foreign operators in China fear running foul of sweeping new cyber- and national-security laws. Among much else, these prohibit anything deemed to “damage national unity”. The apologies issued by some operators were party-speak. Marriott said, “We absolutely will not support any separatist organisation that will undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Delta airlines apologised for hurting the feelings of the Chinese people. Zara, a European fashion chain, even promised a “self-examination”.

For Taiwanese, it is more proof that China is out to squeeze them until the pips squeak. The Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, but considers it a sacred mission to bring the island under its control. China threatens force should Taiwan formally declare that it will remain independent for ever. The party views even “peaceful separation” as an abomination.

China mixes bullying with blandishments. The bullying, of which the move against foreign websites is part, is meant to shrink Taiwan’s diplomatic space and exert psychological pressure. Since Tsai Ing-wen became the island’s president in May 2016, China has shut down high-level contacts across the Taiwan Strait that had burgeoned under her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou. Unlike his Kuomintang (KMT) party, with its historical roots in China, Ms Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party aspires in its charter to formal independence. The president herself, a pragmatist, has made plain her goodwill, by promising from the start that she will not rock the cross-strait boat. The independence clause lies dormant. She blocked attempts to expand a new referendum law to allow plebiscites on matters of sovereignty, including on Taiwan’s official name (the Republic of China).

But for China none of this is good enough. It views the referendum law as a step towards a vote on independence. It has even attacked laudable new legislation aimed at redressing human-rights abuses that occurred during the years of KMT dictatorship. China sees the bill as an attempt to erase all sense of a Chinese identity among Taiwanese: in those days, the KMT was proud of its Chinese nationalism, even though it hated the Communists. Above all, China is furious with Ms Tsai for refusing to acknowledge the “1992 consensus” between the two sides: that both Taiwan and the mainland belong to a single China, and that they agree to disagree what exactly China means.

So Taiwan is in the doghouse. Some policymakers were relieved that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, did not suggest he would get even tougher with it when he spoke at a big party gathering in October. Even so, his uncompromising remarks about Taiwan drew the longest applause of anything he said. Soon after that meeting, he told President Donald Trump that Taiwan (not North Korea’s nukes) was the most critical issue in Sino-American relations. Mr Xi talks of China’s “great rejuvenation” by 2049. That surely implies the return of Taiwan to the fold by that date.

The pressure continues, then. On the diplomatic front, the 20-strong band of countries that recognise Taiwan is bound to be whittled down further, following Panama’s switch to China last year—Honduras, Palau and St Lucia could be next. Earlier this month China reneged on an agreement with Taiwan by announcing four new commercial air routes that run either close to the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait or close to Taiwan’s main offshore islands. Taiwan described this unilateral move as a threat to air safety and to the island’s security. But it is powerless. Taiwan is not a member of the International Civil Aviation Organisation, whose Chinese head previously ran the civil-aviation authority that declared the opening of the air corridors.

China has been flexing military muscle, too. Since 2016 its warplanes have carried out “island-encircling” patrols. China’s state media have published images of these, with Taiwan’s mountains in the background. A recent exercise in northern China involved storming a full-sized mock-up of Taiwan’s presidential palace.

Come on over sometime

All this is out of the old playbook. Mr Xi’s innovation is to single out young Taiwanese and to pile on the blandishments. Colleges offer Taiwanese teachers better pay than they could get in Taiwan. Chinese provinces are opening research centres aimed at young Taiwanese. In the southern city of Dongguan, Taiwanese tech entrepreneurs can get free startup-money and subsidised flats. Over 400,000 Taiwanese now work in China. The young in particular are crossing the strait in droves.

Lin Chong-pin, a Taiwanese scholar and former senior official, calls this Mr Xi’s “soft prong”. In some respects it seems to be reshaping attitudes towards China. It does not help Ms Tsai that she has failed to make much progress on her promise to create more opportunities for the young. Taiwan’s economy remains sluggish. The young think older generations get the better deal. But she gets the blame for tricky cross-strait relations more than Mr Xi does. A recent poll even shows Taiwanese feeling more warmly towards Mr Xi than to Ms Tsai. They do not admire China’s political culture. But Mr Xi may be nurturing a reluctance among young Taiwanese to bite the hand that feeds them.

 

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline "Hard prong, soft prong"

 

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歡喜的重要

Joy is the most basic requirement of spiritual pursuit.

accessed January 24, 2018

 

●菩薩有十種行為。第一行是歡喜行。

「此菩薩…凡所有物悉能惠施,其心平等無有悔吝,不望果報,不求名稱…」

這是功德林菩薩在華嚴經裡所說的。(卷十九,十行品第廿一之一)

●菩薩有十種智慧的境界,或十智地。第一地是歡喜地。

「…念能令眾生得利益,故生歡喜…以慚愧莊嚴,勤修自利利他之道」(其他有關歡喜地的內容共13頁,從略)

這是金剛藏菩薩在華嚴經裡所說的。(卷卅四,十地品第廿六之一)

●如此看來「歡喜」是修行入門最基本的狀態。

●如果有人說法傳道,狀非歡喜,或許其進行方向尚可再斟酌。

●達賴喇嘛經常流露歡喜之情,幾乎狀若兒童。原來這是正道。

小小心得,敬請賜教。

林中斌 2018.1.24

 

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野牡丹

accessed January 26, 2018

 

雜草野牡丹,陰雨賽燦爛。

惡境求善己,但乞卑心安。

林中斌 2018.1.26

Wild peony. 亦名山石榴。

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週末閒逛 Sunday Evening Stroll

accessed February 4, 2018

 

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真愛決勝

accessed February 5, 2018

 

39歲前法國經濟部長在選總統,得助于他60多歲的長腿金髮前高中老師,也是他現在的夫人。他們已結婚10年,之前相戀12年。

破格的愛情不必老男少女。真愛就是真愛。

民調顯示:他可能擊敗川普型的女強人Marine Le Pen,免除法國淪陷於仇外的民粹主義潮流。

林中斌 2017.2.5

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Sex and the French Elections

PARIS — The cover of Paris Match magazine late last year featured a handsome, 30-something man strolling arm in arm with an attractive blond woman in her 60s. The same couple were on the cover of a summer issue, holding hands at the beach, and on a spring edition dressed up for a state dinner.

As France gears up for presidential elections in April (and probably a runoff in May), this unusual pair could help prevent it from becoming the next country to succumb to xenophobic populism. He’s the upstart presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, and she’s his former high school French teacher, Brigitte Trogneux, now his close adviser and wife.

Mr. Macron, the 39-year-old former economy minister, is now in second place in the polls. He surged past the conservative François Fillon this week thanks to “Penelope-gate” — an investigation into whether Mr. Fillon’s Welsh-born wife held a well-paid government job but didn’t actually work, and other allegations.

Mr. Macron still lags the front-runner, Marine Le Pen, who wants France to slash immigration and leave the European Union. Mr. Macron is adamantly pro-Europe and quickly opposed President Trump’s barring of refugees. Polls show that Mr. Macron would easily defeat Ms. Le Pen in a runoff.

He’s benefiting from a global election season in which voters want to break with conventions. On one hand Mr. Macron is an énarque — a graduate of ENA, France’s elite finishing school for future presidents and ministers — and worked as an investment banker before quickly rising in the Socialist Party. But last year he broke away from the ruling (and ailing) Socialists to form his own centrist party, which he claims is neither left nor right. His youth adds to his novelty.

And his unconventional personal story keeps him from seeming like just another ambitious énarque. Mr. Macron and his wife met when he was a 15-year-old 10th grader at a Jesuit high school in Amiens, and Ms. Trogneux was a 40-year-old married mother of three children, one of whom was in Mr. Macron’s class. Then known by her married name, Auzière, she taught French literature and ran the theater club.

By all accounts Mr. Macron was precocious: an accomplished pianist who excelled academically and starred in the school play, which Ms. Trogneux directed. (While minister, he recited Molière from memory on French TV.) “Resolutely, he wasn’t like the others. He was always with the teachers,” Ms. Trogneux said in the French documentary “Emmanuel Macron: The Meteor Strategy.” “He wasn’t an ado” — an adolescent — she added.

Their relationship turned romantic when Mr. Macron, then in 11th grade, persuaded her to write a play with him. “Writing brought us together every Friday and it unleashed an incredible closeness,” she told Paris Match.

At the insistence of either his alarmed parents or the frazzled Ms. Trogneux, Mr. Macron left to spend his senior year in Paris at the prestigious Lycée Henri-IV. Before leaving home, he reportedly promised his teacher: “You won’t get rid of me. I will return and I will marry you.”

Over long phone calls from Paris, “little by little, he vanquished my resistance,” she said. Ms. Trogneux eventually divorced her husband and took a teaching job in Paris. “I told myself: I’m going to miss out on my life if I don’t do this.”

At their 2007 wedding, Mr. Macron thanked Ms. Trogneux’s children for accepting him and said the pair are “not at all a normal couple — though I don’t like that adjective much — but we’re a couple that exists.”

Its existence has caused some flack. A radio humorist recently called the long-legged Ms. Trogneux a “menopausal Barbie.” Critics call Mr. Macron a “chouchou” — a kind of teacher’s pet — who’s jumping the line for the presidency and flaunting his personal life to win votes.

But the French press is frequently admiring of their relationship. Magazines call her a fashion icon and run pictures of the youthful Mr. Macron giving a baby bottle to one of his seven step-grandchildren.

It helps that — although their romance began when Mr. Macron was scandalously young — once students reach university, student-teacher flings are practically expected. The twist, in Mr. Macron’s case, is that they’re still together decades later.

And true love excuses many breaches of convention here. Last fall’s main literary event was “Letters to Anne,” a 1,276-page book of romantic letters that former President François Mitterrand sent to his longtime mistress, Anne Pingeot. They met when she was 19 and he was 45. (“I feel that I’ve been making love to you without stopping since August 15, 1963!” Mr. Mitterrand declared in a letter dated seven years later.)

The French also pride themselves on not moralizing. Politicians’ private lives don’t have to follow a script, and no one even expects them to discuss it. Marine Le Pen has two ex-husbands and took years to acknowledge her current relationship with another party official.

But don’t confuse a lack of moralizing with a lack of interest. One sign that President François Hollande’s career was kaput was that no one cared anymore about whom he was sleeping with. The Socialists are running Mr. Hollande’s former education minister for president instead; he’s currently in distant fourth place in the polls.

The one requirement is that a politician’s love life should be sincere, especially if it’s part of his public persona. Mr. Macron went on TV in November to deny a persistent rumor that he’s secretly gay and living a “double life.” At issue isn’t his sexuality; it’s his authenticity. The implication is that if his love story isn’t real, his plans for the country lack substance, too.

For the future of France, let’s hope it is.

 

Pamela Druckerman is the author of “Bringing Up Bébé: One American Mother Discovers the Wisdom of French Parenting” and a contributing opinion writer.

 

 

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Opening Remarks

CHINA’S ATYPICAL RISE
Dominating East Asia Without War

Chong-Pin Lin 

Assurex Global Asia/Pacific Conference,

January 17, 2018, Mandarin Oriental Taipei

 

另類大國崛起:北京不戰而勝而主東亞

2018117 國際企業集團 Assurex Global

亞太年會 主題演講

開場白

Last month, the president of Sri Lanka handed over to China Hambandota, an important port with the potential of becoming a naval base, for $292 million U.S. dollars to the chagrin of India, Japan and the U.S..

Interestingly, he, when elected president in January 2015 had suspended the port project with China, which had been previously launched by his predecessor.

Why did he flip flop?

 In June last year, the flagrantly anti-China prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, indicated his willingness to cooperate with China on its Belt Road Initiative, which Abe had previously resisted doing.

 Why did he shift his anti-China posture?

  At the end of last August, Indian prime minister Narenda Modi suddenly ended the border standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in Daklom that had begun in June.

  He then ordered Indian border troops to learn 50-60 Chinese sentences to avoid future misunderstanding between the two sides.

  Five days later, he appointed a new defense minister in the morning, and then left for China, arriving in Xiamen late in the evening to attend the BRICKS summit, along with leaders from Russia, Brazil and South Africa, which was hosted by Chinese president Xi Jinping.

  A month later, the new defense minister of India greeted the Chinese soldiers on the Sino-Indian border with a “Namaste”, which means “I bow to you”.

  Why did Modi and his defense minister take these actions accommodating China?

 

COMMON DENOMINATOR

       The common denominator of all three cases is China’s economic instrument employed to promote its regional influence.

●Sri Lanka, incapable of paying the mounting debt to China, succumbed to Beijing’s offer for the Hambandota Project .

●Japan’s Abe after US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership under President Donald Trump began to feel cooperating with China economically and 

  otherwise more attractive and even necessary.

● India’s Modi did not want to miss attending the BRICK summit hosted by China for its potentials of economic benefit to India.

 

This is only part of a bigger picture.

 

CONCLUSIONS

1. China’s grand strategy in the 21st century is dominating East Asia without war.

    Aversion to war-fighting, rooted in history, is observed to reduce resistance to China’s rise .

2. China’s rapidly advancing military capabilities serve not at the front but as the backbone of its extra-military instruments.

3. China’s guideline for contending with neighbors is “struggle without breaking”.

4. China’s extra-military instruments include most prominently those of economy, but also of diplomacy, psychology, media, and characteristically culture – professional, popular, and even spiritual culture such as religion.

5. Religion as policy instrument, coming to the fore under Xi Jinping, aims to promote domestic stability, and to enhance Beijing’s international image.

6.  Xi’s two-pronged Taiwan tactics, in the wake of the 19th Party Congress, are eing implemented with new vigor. The objective is to alter Taiwan’s public opinion in favor of cross-strait integration without war.

 

 

 

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喬治梅森大學訪賓

2018118

George Mason University Visitors

January 18, 2018

兩周前我被告知:
I was advised two weeks ago

美國「喬治梅森大學」(George Mason University)安全政策研究中心副主任葉麥克(Michael Hunzeker)率團乙行7人來台訪問。H主任曾於美國防部馬提斯(James Mattis)及國安顧問H.R. McMaster麾下服役。
"訪團此行來臺特別希望可以拜會您,盼與您就我國防安全議題交換意見。"

Professor Michael Hunzeker at George Mason University who will arrive in Taiwan with a team of experts on security issues "wishes to visit you and exchange views on related issues."

他們說今天來此是這幾天來訪問第一次不在台北市區。(我猜:意味第一次到無辦公室的私人家中)

Today they arrived at our residence saying that this was the first time they went out of Metropolitan Taipei on this trip for meeting, which I thought to mean first time in a private home of someone who does not have an office.

今天下午很愉快的交換意見。

We did have a productive and pleasant session.

林中斌 2018.1.18
Chong-Pin Lin January 18, 2018

 

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