目前分類:各色評論/newspaper commentaries (441)

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林中斌:520後,兩岸整體關係並不悲觀

2016/03/04 天下雜誌 林中斌

http://opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/70/article/3957#st_refDomain=www.facebook.com&st_refQuery=/  

accessed Mar 05, 2016

我想對習近平主席說:蔡英文不斷提出善意的說法,甚至有人認為她「和對岸溝通、溝通、再溝通」的說詞,是在乞求北京。在這樣的情況下,您若仍然拒她於千里之外,要如何解釋您可以接見並未完全友中的安倍,但不能接受蔡英文這種狀況?何況蔡英文還是您所認為的中國人。

在蔡英文方面,很多民進黨領導人都認為,她不會接受九二共識,因為一旦接受,台灣15%的深綠選票就會離她而去。也許這是事實,但我想請問蔡總統:您所欣賞的德國總理梅克爾剛就任時的理念是聯美反中。但20079月接見達賴喇嘛後,北京斷絕與柏林互動四個月,德國商業利益受損。於是梅克爾開始改善與北京關係。在金融危機時,她甚至與中國一起批評美國不負責任。近年來中德關係穩定,同時梅克爾政治智慧享譽國際。您為何不能為台灣整體實際的利益調整您最早的政治理念?

20160305 林中斌:520後,兩岸整體關係並不悲觀.jpg

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漁船遊艇對軍艦

2016/03/08 聯合報 名人堂 林中斌

http://udn.com/news/story/7340/1548175-%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%8F%E6%BC%81%E8%88%B9%E9%81%8A%E8%89%87%E5%B0%8D%E8%BB%8D%E8%89%A6

超軍事手段優先 (Extra-military Emphasis)

這份2016.3.3日我交給聯合報名人堂的稿件,於2016.3.8日刊出。在這段期間,兩項新聞出現,似乎呼應了拙作所提之研判。感謝提供寶貴資料的同學及提醒這兩項新聞的名暉。

第一份新聞來自2016.3.4 CNN(“U.S. aircraft carrier patrols South China Sea as Beijing keeps watch” http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/politics/aircraft-carrier-patrols-south-china-sea/)

第二份新聞來自2016.3.6央廣網(永興島機場或年內通航 三沙將逐步開放旅遊)

http://war.163.com/16/0306/09/BHFDHQL100014OVF.html

■ “超軍事手段優先這個詞彙來自1988年拙作(Chong-Pin Lin, China’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy, pp.22-25)。其定義是 超越軍事但不排除軍事的手段” (原文是 transcending but not excluding the military)

■ “二元整合” (integrated dualism) 這個詞彙也來自1988年拙作(Chong-Pin Lin, China’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy, pp.25-28)

 

20160308 超軍事手段優先.jpg

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南海衝突升溫?

林中斌:中美「鬥而不破」

2016/02/17 蘋果日報 林中斌

http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/international/20160217/797831/%E5%8D%97%E6%B5%B7%E8%A1%9D%E7%AA%81%E5%8D%87%E6%BA%AB%EF%BC%9F%E3%80%80%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E3%80%8C%E9%AC%A5%E8%80%8C%E4%B8%8D%E7%A0%B4%E3%80%8D

  accessed Feb 20, 2016

 

  • 林中斌:中美「鬥而不破」

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Beijing’s nonnavy boats in South China Sea stoke concern of U.S. 7th Fleet commander

The Japan Times, Feb 16, 2016

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/02/16/asia-pacific/beijings-non-navy-boats-south-china-sea-stoke-concern-u-s-7th-fleet-commander/#.VsWxA4F-XqD

  accessed Feb 18, 2016

  • China seems to be coordinating fishing boats and coast guard vessels on U.S. warships in the Spratlys which has caused Vice Admiral Joseph Aucoin, US 7th Fleet Deputy Commander, much "angst", not knowing what to do about it. This is what I characterized as "extra-military emphasis" in China's strategic tradition in my PhD dissertation-turned book "China's Nuclear Weapons Strategy" published in 1988 by Lexington Books. Chong-Pin Lin Feb 18, 2016
  • 北京似乎在協調漁船和海巡船來對付在南海巡航的美國軍艦。這困擾了美國的7艦隊副司令,不知如何應付是好。這就是我在博士論文轉成的專書"中共核武戰略"(1987)中所稱中國戰略傳統裡的特點之一"超軍事手段優先"2016218

 

China’s increased reliance on nonnaval ships to assert its claims in the South China Sea is complicating U.S. efforts to avoid a clash in the disputed waters, according to 7th Fleet commander Vice Adm. Joseph Aucoin.

While the U.S. and Chinese navies are working more closely under an agreed code for unplanned encounters at sea, the deployment of coast guard and other nonnaval vessels in the area is “a concern of mine,” Aucoin told reporters Monday in Singapore. He plans to take the USS Blue Ridge, the command ship of the 7th Fleet, to China later in the summer.

We have all types of senior level engagements with the Chinese PLAN, that we meet pretty routinely,” Aucoin said, referring to the People’s Liberation Army Navy. He said he had a “greater fear” about other actors, “whether it’s coast guard or what we refer to as white shipping or cabbage ships, not sure about their professionalism.”

Aucoin’s comments came ahead of a two-day summit in California between President Barack Obama and leaders from Southeast Asian nations, as the U.S. seeks to build a unified approach to China’s growing military clout. Southeast Asian countries generally welcome China’s investment and economic muscle, even as some have expressed concern about its expanding naval reach.

China claims more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, putting it at odds with fellow claimants including Vietnam and the Philippines in a body of water that annually hosts $5 trillion in shipping. In the past two years, China has reclaimed more than 1,200 hectares (3,000 acres) in the sea and is building military facilities there. It has also made greater use of fishing and maritime surveillance boats to warn off other vessels in the area, blurring the lines between its navy and coast guard.

Last month the U.S. sent a warship into waters contested by China, Vietnam and Taiwan to challenge the “excessive” maritime claims of all three. It was the second time in less than six months the U.S. has challenged China with a so-called freedom-of-navigation operation. During the first operation by the USS Lassen, where it passed within 12 nautical miles (22 km) of Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands chain, it was shadowed and warned by Chinese boats — including nonnaval vessels.

During the Lassen one it was apparent that they were being controlled, that they weren’t operating independently, and that is something that is in our calculus now,” Aucoin said of the Chinese boats. “How do we approach that when it is not gray hull versus another gray hull, it’s other types of ships. I think we’ll see more of that in the future.”

Chinese navy commander Adm. Wu Shengli said in January that China had no plans to militarize the South China Sea. Still, the country would “never be defenseless,” Wu said. The degree of defensive facilities depends on how much China is under threat, he said.

The U.S.’s 7th Fleet has patrolled Asia’s waters since World War II. Its coverage area extends from Japan to India.

Aucoin said there were no formal talks to bring coast guards under the code for unplanned encounters at sea. “I know I am asking our coast guard to become more involved, to help us with these types of operations because it’s not simply gray hulls anymore,” he said. “I think having a code of conduct that would cover them would be a good thing.”

China has nearly finished a giant coast guard ship and will probably deploy it armed with machine guns and shells in the South China Sea, the Global Times reported in January, dubbing the vessel “The Beast.” China Coast Guard vessel 3901, with a 12,000-ton displacement, will carry 76 mm rapid fire guns, two auxiliary guns and two anti-aircraft machine guns, the paper reported.

China’s so-called white-hulled fleet previously involved ships armed at most with water canon and sirens. The ship now under construction is larger than some of the U.S. naval vessels that patrol the area.

It will be the second of China’s mega-cutters, which are the largest coast guard vessels in the world, according to the Global Times. A similar boat entered service last year in the East China Sea, where China is separately involved in a territorial dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, which Beijing calls the Diaoyus.

The country also said in January it had successfully completed test flights of civilian aircraft to a new airfield on Fiery Cross Reef, drawing protests from countries including Vietnam. Aucoin said flying fighter aircraft out of the area would have a destabilizing effect and could prompt a U.S. response. (Aucoin misjudged.  It was intended for expanded tourism to deal with U.S. warships.  CPL Feb. 21, 2016)

They do have an operational airfield but I don’t know when they will start flying fighter-type aircraft out of there,” Aucoin said. “We will fly, sail and operate wherever international law permits, and that includes flying over that airspace.”

He called for greater transparency from China on its intentions generally in the South China Sea. “I think that would relieve some of the angst that we are now seeing, that we are unsure where they are taking this,” Aucoin said. “What has made China powerful, great, is being able to operate through these waters. We just want them to respect those rights so that we can all continue to prosper.” (Aucoin unintentionally revealed that he was perplexed.   CPL  Feb 21, 2016)

 

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Uruguay’s Quiet Democratic Miracle

UKI GOÑI, The New York Times, Feb 9, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/opinion/uruguays-quiet-democratic-miracle.html?_r=0

  accessed Feb 15, 2016

  • Uruguay with only 3.3 million inhabitant is one of the world’s “full democratic”, ahead even, by one place, of the United State. Uruguay scores perfect 10s on the indexes of civil liberties and electoral process, Uruguay has avoided excessive nationalism to maintain social harmony, Uruguay has avoided religious influence on the society, a feat equaled only by Norway and New Zealand.
  • 烏拉圭人口僅330萬是世界上20個完全民主國家之一,甚至比美國更民主。其人民的自由和選舉過程被評為世界最高分(10)只有挪威和紐西蘭跟它一樣,避免民族主義撕裂社會,避免宗教影響政治。201595%能源都是可以再生的。

 

20160210 A quiet democratic miracle in Uruguay - ok.jpg

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How China Sees Russia:

Beijing and Moscow Are Close, but Not Allies

Fu Ying, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2016

  • 北京前駐英、澳大利亞大使,外交部副部長傅瑩居然在美國頂尖的《外交事務》期刊討論對美國而言是極端敏感的問題。她的論述理性不諱言一般人躲避的議題,但呈現北京國家政策符合其國家利益。文字看來沒有強詞奪理的語氣。值得學習。
  • Fu Ying wrote: ”Beijing and Moscow, sometimes they agree; sometimes they do not. But they are able to acknowledge and manage their disagreement while continuing to expand area of consensus. The Chinese-Russian relationship represent a possible model for other state to follow.”
  • Chong-Pin Lin: Fu Ying implies that the Chinese-Russian relationship is a model for the new major-state relationship(新大國關係的典範)

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2016 Jan Feb How China Sees Russia 96.jpg

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人類未來的曙光

2016/01/14 聯合報 名人堂 林中斌

http://udn.com/news/story/7340/1440825-%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%8F%E4%BA%BA%E9%A1%9E%E6%9C%AA%E4%BE%86%E7%9A%84%E6%9B%99%E5%85%89

   accessed Jan 18, 2016

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20151220  

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中美南海互鬥的真相

2015/12/10 聯合報 名人堂 林中斌

http://udn.com/news/story/7340/1368064-%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%8F%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E5%8D%97%E6%B5%B7%E4%BA%92%E9%AC%A5%E7%9A%84%E7%9C%9F%E7%9B%B8

 中美南海互鬥的真相 ok  

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習近平巴黎論佛教

中國文化復興佛教當擔大任

鳳凰網 2014-03-28

http://big5.xuefo.net/nr/article20/197986.html

  accessed December 11, 2015

 

l   一個無神論(也是唯物論)的黨所主導的國家元首在國際場合演講佛教對復興文化的重要!! 嘿!有沒有搞錯呀?? 對不起,沒搞錯。那是2014年在巴黎,習近平的演說。他同時強調包容不同宗教的重要性,和要從"思想中築起保衛和平之屏障"。聽來有點像達賴喇嘛或教宗方濟的說法:世界和平要從個人內心和平做起。怪了! 哈!!!

林中斌 2015.12.11

l   http://paper.udn.com/udnpaper/PID0030/226103/web/

 

 

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20121031 習近平與佛教 ok  

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How Beijing Built a Rival to World Bank

Janz Perlez, The New York Times, Dec 7, 2015 

accessed Dec 7, 2015

l  這是一篇有深度的報導,顯示北京放下身段力邀歐、美、日參加亞投行。成立後北京一再妥協只保留26%之投票權,甚至繼續投錢支持美國主導的世界銀行和亞洲發展銀行。亞投行秘書長金立群居然是莎士比亞專家,女兒任教於London School of economics.

林中斌 2015.12.10

20151207 How Beijing built a rival to World Bank

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中日高層經濟對話 傳協調重開

中央通訊社 2015/12/8

http://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201512080349-1.aspx

20151210 中日高層經濟對話 可望明春復談  

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How to rein in Wall Street

HILLARY CLINTON, The New York Times, Dec 7, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/opinion/hillary-clinton-how-id-rein-in-wall-street.html?_r=0

 accessed Dec 8, 2015

l  This is what a meant by saying Elizabeth Warren, though not a candidate will continue to influence the U.S. presidential election.

l  http://udn.com/news/story/7340/1046858-%E6%9E%97%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%8C%EF%BC%8F%E8%8F%AF%E5%80%AB%EF%BC%9A%E4%B8%8D%E9%81%B8%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E7%9A%84%E7%AB%B6%E9%81%B8%E4%BA%BA

20150710 華倫 不選美國總統的競選人okok20151208 How to rein in Wall Street ok

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中日和緩

2015/12/5  聯合報/旺報/South China Morning Post

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1886717/japanese-and-chinese-ruling-parties-resume-talks-after                                  accessed Dec. 7, 2015

l   Japan and China have just resumed party-to-party talks after a hiatus of six years. The mainstream view after Xi-Abe meeting in late 2014 was not optimisitc and that the meeting represented only a temporary thaw of bilateral relations. Chong-Pin Lin December 5, 2015

l   中日剛恢復已中斷六年的黨對黨協商。2014年底習安會後主流看法是中日關係緩和只是曇花一現,不會有長期中日融冰的發展。林中斌 2015.12.5

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國際軍務雙月刊第四期出版

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心靈的文藝復興-新紀元新價值

2015年12月13日 星期天

14:10~15:00

台北榮民總醫院 介壽堂

中華整合醫學與健康發展促進協會

http://cimpha.com/local/email-1213.html

擷取  

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政冷經熱 訪日遊客陸人最多

2015/11/25 旺報

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20151125000794-260301  accessed Nov. 30, 2015

「中日還是不免一戰嗎? 北京『超軍事手段』中間旅遊(tourism)是一樣重要之工具。為『不戰而主東亞』鋪路已久」  林中斌 2015.11.30

 20151125 政治經熱 訪日遊客陸人最多  

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China’s most powerful weapon is trade

David Pilling, Financial Times, Nov. 26, 2015

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/605c3ec4-92c1-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html   accessed Nov. 30, 2015

 

l   trade, or an economic tool, is typically an “extra-military instrument” which characterizes China’s grand strategy of “dominating Asia without war!  Chung-Pin Lin Nov. 30 2015

20151126 China  

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馬習會外一章:政治衣裝

 

 

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http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/1157737

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The North Star

「中國可能的第六代領導人陸昊至今乏人知曉」 林中斌 2015.11.23

A largely unknown political rising star in China who may suceed Xi JinPing - Chong-Pin Lin Nov.23.2015

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