"U.S. consumers caught in trade war"
International New York Times September 20, 2018 p.8
accessed September 25, 2018
● "For American consumers, prices have already risen on some products that the administration targeted for tariffs this year-- most notably, washing machines which were subjected to steep tariffs in January"
美國消費者已受洗衣機漲價的影響。其自中國進口關稅是川普今年一月提高的。
●"Many buyers are more likely to see big price effects next year than during the holidays"
許多美國消費者要等到明年才會感受到物品大幅漲價的衝擊。
Vostock 2018/ 東方2018 大演習
Economist September 8, 2018
accessed Sep 17, 2018
●"Russia has all but dropped any pretence of civility with America and Europe; China sticks to the notion of 'win-win relations. Russia arms the Taliban to frustrate America; China seeks to promote a peace deal in Afghanistan."
倫敦經濟學人9月8日說：" 俄羅斯跟美國及歐洲已不顧基本的禮貌了，但是中國仍然追求與歐美雙贏。俄羅斯武裝神學士打擊美國，但是中國仍然努力建構阿富汗地和平。"
●The largest Russian military exercises since the cold war were held in southern Siberia in which thousands of Chinese soldiers took part as honored guests.
●"The West should worry ...because the exercises hold a mirror to America's weakened alliances."
中俄軍演是一面鏡子，反映了美國與盟國弱化的關係。
●"America appears to be complacent, clinging to the conventional notion that the two giant neighbors will never grow too close" (CPL： a misjudgement of the U.S.)
「美國仍然自我感覺良好，深信中俄永不會拉近關係。」(林中斌：美國誤判)
A difficult diplomatic trip to India
accessed Sep 07, 2018
去年11月，川普見印度總理莫迪後嘲笑後者英文口音。這video在德里瘋狂傳開。
川普告訴莫迪不可買俄國武器，和伊朗石油。逼得印度轉向俄國和中國，但印度以中國為主要威脅。德里陷入兩難。
林中斌 2018.9.7
鐵腕普丁與民共賞諷刺政府節目
accessed Sep 10, 2018
●台上表演諷刺俄羅斯官員貪腐享福、人民生活困苦的節目。
台下坐在一般群眾席次的俄羅斯總統普丁，燦爛的與民同笑。
●鐵腕統治國家的普丁，無怪享受高達85%的支持度(即使西方民調機構在俄羅斯也獲得同樣的支持數據)。
●視頻裡貪得無厭的警官，榨乾被罰的汽車司機後，準備離去，於是引述俄羅斯大詩人普希金的名句，以"自圓其貪"。才說第一句，觀眾已爆出大笑。
●苦難的俄羅斯民族，靠的是動人的音樂和感人的詩句，度過千百年的外在環境的折磨，而靠堅忍的精神存活至今。
林中斌 2018.9.11
莫斯科的52座詩人雕像
林中斌
名人堂稿件
2010.12.6 本文字數:1196 目標字數:1200
賓利是頂級豪華車，一輛一千多萬台幣。俄羅斯在十年前全國一部都沒，去年總數一百零三。
這項時代雜誌十二月六日的報導，令我一震。眼前景象穿過時光隧道，回到十五年前十二月的莫斯科。我站在銀行外排隊。盧布用完，要用美金換。零下溫度，陰雲密佈，雖厚大衣裹身，仍酷寒入骨。
每十五分鐘，軍車載了荷槍實彈的士兵，衝進銀行，背走一大袋現鈔。銀行怕搶，不放心顧客進入，更不放心存放現款。我抬頭看銀行外電子顯示匯率牌：美金一元對盧布六萬多。盧布數字幾分鐘就跳高一次！
那時，前蘇聯剛解體，經濟崩潰，生活困頓，人口損失嚴重，一年幾乎減一百萬！所見到的市民，面色蒼白(營養不良)，毫無笑容。
但是，他們衣服樸素整潔，抬頭挺胸，顯露無言的尊嚴。地鐵乾淨，乘客極守秩序。
晚上，我去柴可夫斯基演奏廳，聽音樂。票價不便宜，竟然客滿！
接待我們的人說：「莫斯科一大特色，是歷年來豎立了五十二座詩人雕像。」
心想世界上首都銅像盡是政治領袖、軍事英雄。有那個國家首都豎立數十詩人雕像？俄國詩傳統不過三百年。詩有上千年歷史的中國首都，有多少詩人雕像？
那句話現在回想，依然令我感動。俄羅斯民族稱斯拉夫Slav，其原意就是奴隸slave。這個歷史上已備受鞭躂的民族，再歷經七十年共產黨統治，更沒有自由。共黨政權崩解後，又沒有食物。這些都可以忍。但是不能沒有詩，不能沒有音樂。正因如此，民族的靈魂受苦難而堅韌，潤弦歌而昇華。
我對自己說：俄羅斯將再起！
兩年後，一九九七，我重返莫斯科。車子路過一座建築，金頂閃閃發光。當地朋友高興的告訴我，「基督救世主大教堂」由仍然貧窮的人民集體捐款已重建了。
此教堂在一八一二年拿破崙攻俄失敗後建立，感謝上蒼的庇佑，並紀念為國捐軀的忠魂。一九三一年，被無神論的共產政權爆破，預備樹立巨大的列寧像。後因希特勒進兵蘇聯，全國動員作戰而做罷。此教堂能在經濟蕭條時重建，放射出民族未來的曙光。
果然，一九九八年，俄羅斯經濟便開始谷底回升，一路直線成長到二○○八年，成為金磚四國之一。雖然今年第二季度成長只五點二%，殿後金磚其他三國，卻遠超過美(三點二%)、日(一點九%)、德(三點七%)、法(一點七%)。
二○○七年，下滑了十年的人口開始止滑。原來侵噬國民生命的問題如酗酒、謀殺已然穩住。
隨了俄羅斯經濟社會復甦，它的外交開始顯露自信，內政展現希望。
○七年之後，俄國進入美國後院。那年，俄艦在二戰後首度穿越巴拿馬運河。次年，俄國與委內瑞拉在委國領海舉行海空軍事演習。今年十一月，莫斯科向東西齊頭並進。它宣布將出售給北京本已取消的蘇凱卅五先進戰機，又同意協助以前敵人北約發展飛彈防禦。
九三年，俄國法庭實行陪審制度。被告無罪釋放的比例，由原先一%大幅提昇至卄%。最近，莫斯科市中心首度允許反對黨遊行。政府宣布人民戶口可以自由移動。原先被禁的文學巨著索爾仁尼琴的「古拉格群島」現在為高中生必讀。
偉大的俄羅斯詩人普希金（一七八九至一八三七），如天上有知，應在微笑。
林中斌為淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所教授
超越親美親中保持距離
accessed Sep 10, 2018
馬來西亞首位華裔國防部長，道出東亞的中國鄰居都想追求的“兩面下注”（hedging）的外交企望。
林中斌 2018.9.11
中日告別8年對抗
accessed Sep 10, 2018
其實，2017年6月，安倍有別以往抗拒" 一帶一路"，表示將考慮參與" 一帶一路"，東京已開始調整日本在美國中國之間的定位：向中方漸漸移動。
如今中日加速接近。
因素：
●.安倍對川普多變不放心。何況川普也對日本開貿易戰。
●習近平一直對日留有餘地。可能受劉亞洲多年前便發表的主張影響：中國應向前看，勿受限於二戰之恩怨。因為日本對中國甚為重要。
在下淺見，敬請賜教。
林中斌 2018.9.10
Japan and the US ：
Watching Him Nervously
accessed Sep 17, 2018
日美關係：東京不安的看著川普
● The Alliance between Japan and America is under unprecedented stress, mainly because of America's president. There are worries in Tokyo that Mr. Trump might strike a deal with North Korea's leader that protects America but leaves Japan exposed to a North Korean attack.
日本擔心川普會跟金正恩達成協議， 保護了美國，卻讓日本暴露在北韓攻擊的危險之下。
●Trump resents spending so much on deployments abroad including on Japan. He is obsessed with America's trade deficits with Japan. Trump has been neglecting Abe while interacting with Kim Jong Un. Trump appears ready to exploit military ties with Japan as bargaining chips in economic affairs.
川普抱怨日本佔美國便宜，因為川普很在意日貿易逆差大。川普跟金正恩熱絡來往，冷落安倍。似乎美國要用美日軍事同盟為價碼逼日本在經貿上讓步。
●Abe is now trying to pursue an independent foreign policy ，separating military and politcal/economic policies
and to improve relations with both Putin and Xi jinping as a balance to the tensions between Tokyo and Washington.
安倍在新情勢下把軍事和政經分離。軍事仍然保持與美同盟。政治外交上，他追尋獨立外交，與中俄交好。
Chong-Pin Lin summary attempted September 17, 2018
林中斌 試摘譯 2018.9.17
出芽(Piping)
accessed July 15, 2018
小小觀察，或許有助於露面公眾及國際場合的朋友參考。
*西裝袖口露出其內(白)襯衫或稱"出芽"應注意:
1.出芽應不多不少。約1.5公分。
這是歐西社會數世紀的傳統，有其審美莊重的基礎。中國古裝遲至滿清，亦有此特性。"出芽"(piping)一詞中斌借用來自滿族內人家旗袍的縫邊。雖然近十年，美國流行減少出芽寬度，竊以為遲早回回歸基本美學。
2.西裝袖口，穿衣人直立時，外肘邊應比內臂邊長。如此穿衣人彎肘時，如坐沙發時，出芽寬度才均等。
連先生不合格。習先生合格。美防長Jim Matiss合格。
*穿西裝，站立時，扣上鈕。坐下時，不扣鈕。(穿雙排釦西裝例外，站立和坐下都扣鈕)
連先生不合格。習先生合格。美防長Jim Matiss合格。
林中斌 2018.7.15
林中斌，〈 廟算蔡習會 〉
《聯合報》 2018年07月20日
accessed Jul 20, 2018
「做為臺灣的總統，我很樂意，而且也有責任與對岸領導人坐下來，好好地談一談。」
「這是您這一任想完成的目標…之一？」
「我當然希望在我做總統的任內，雙方能夠有機會坐下來談…」
以上是今年六月廿四日蔡英文總統對法新社記者的回答。
她為何如此明白的表達想在所餘任期不足兩年內見習近平主席？
一些線索顯露在六月十七日由前研考會副主委民進黨員游盈隆博士創立並主持的「台灣民意基金會」所公佈的民調中：
●小英危機：不贊同蔡總統施政的從去年十一月的卅九點八趴上升至歷史新高五十二趴。
●賴揆失分：對賴院長清德施政不滿意度由去年十月廿一點四趴上升至四十三點四趴新高，首度超越滿意度四十二點四 趴。
●政黨乏力：支持民進黨的佔廿三點一趴，國民黨廿三趴。幾乎打平。
●中間升起：認同民進黨佔廿九點五趴，國民黨廿三點二趴。但中性選民高達四十三點七趴。
●對中好感：人民對中國好感不高，只多於北韓及菲律賓，達四十八點八趴，但首度超越反感四十三點九趴！而去年十一月，好感四十四點四趴，低於反感四十七點四趴。
既然台灣民意對執政黨如此不利，面對年底縣市長選舉，甚至二○廿年總統大選，兼任黨主席的蔡總統必須有所作為，否則要面臨扛敗選責任而辭去黨主席成為「陽春總統」的窘境。改善國內經濟社會問題短期難顯效果，緩不濟急。最快見效的應是兩岸政策的說詞和姿態(有別於兩岸政策實質)的調整。既然樂見兩岸平穩的中性選民壯大，對蔡總統選情加分最有把握的應是呼籲在「對等和沒有設政治前提的情況下」與習主席見面。
蔡總統拋出「蔡習會」建議十天後，她麾下成員亦開始跟進。慣稱對岸「中國」的賴院長於七月三日公開致詞說「政府歡迎大陸觀光客來台旅遊」。
七月十五日「台灣民意基金會」民調顯示不贊同蔡總統施政的比例已下降三趴至四十九趴。雖然人民對民進黨認同繼續下降，從五月卅六點七趴，經六月廿跌至七月廿點七趴。但是人民對國民黨認同更無起色，從五月廿一點九趴，經六月廿三點二趴至七月廿點七趴。寄望十一月縣市長選舉國民黨大規模翻盤，恐怕將落空。
北京自去年起發動更犀利的軟硬兩手策略。軟的是完全操之在它的惠台措施：針對台灣科技人才、青年學子、一般民眾。硬的是機艦繞台、斷交施威、國際封殺的心理施壓。前者贏取台灣民心，後者雖然嚇阻台獨但失去民心。關鍵是孰強孰弱？
六一七的民調提供答案：贏多於失。但目前幅度尚不夠影響台灣選舉使台北兩岸政策轉向大陸。相較於江澤民、胡錦濤兩岸互動的成績，習將面臨執政十年對台政策交白卷的難堪。否則，他必須面對蔡，而回應蔡六二四的拋球是第一步。
然而，北京認為蔡九二共識尚未交卷，斷了官方互動。習用擦邊球回應蔡。
這也許是三次一年一度連習會後，擱置三年，又再啟封的苦衷吧。
作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授，曾任國防部副部長
林中斌，〈美國選舉：多數服從少數〉
《聯合報》 2018年8月13日
accessed Sep 03, 2018
兩年前美國大選，民主黨希拉蕊多得三百萬票，相當於總票數二點一趴，卻敗給共和黨的川普。更早在公元兩千年，民主黨總統候選人高爾得票多贏○點五趴，卻敗給共和黨小布希。兩次當選的共和黨總統得票都少於落選對手。為何？
全世界其他五十八個直選總統的民主國家，沒有一個像美國候選人得票少反而當選總統。這現象在美國之前也不常見。美國上次得票少卻當選總統是一八八八年(Benjamin Harrison)。近來只隔十六年又重演。為何？
此外，美國從○八年以來，在參議院、眾議院、州長、以及各州立法機構的選舉，共和黨經常贏過民主黨。雖然民主黨候選人得票多，但敗選。為何？
以上現象根源有二：
●開國元勳善心。兩百多年前，美國立國的先賢擔心都市選民知識高、財富多因此在政治影響力上比鄉村選民佔優勢。為公平起見，鄉村公民的選票應該多算，都市公民的選票應少算，來補償城鄉影響力的差距。
選舉美國總統雖然由全國選民參與，但最後是由五百卅八選舉團員決定，得票超過其半數，便當選。川普一六年底得三百○四張選舉團員票而進白宮。
美國加州人口最多，有三千七百萬。加州選舉團員票有五十五張，每張票代表七十一萬人。人口最少的懷俄明州，有三張選舉團員票，每張票代表十九萬人，幾乎是加州的四分之一。所以懷俄明州人民在選總統上影響力上幾乎是加州人民的四倍。比起曠野無垠的懷俄明州，有舊金山、洛杉機大都會的加州選民，正是開國元勳要限制其政治影響力的對象。
美國一百位聯邦參議員，地位高於四百卅五位的聯邦眾議員。美國五十州每州選出兩位參議員。懷俄明州五十六萬人口，一位聯邦參議員代表廿八萬州民。而加州三千七百萬人口，一位聯邦參議員代表一千九百萬州民，是懷俄明州廿八萬的六十六倍。也就是說，懷俄明州每位州民在聯邦參議院的影響力是加州州民的六十六倍！
●兩黨城鄉分化。數十年以前，美國共和黨與民主黨成員各自擁有都市與鄉村的人口。都市人口傾向自由派，鄉村人口傾向保守派。當時兩黨各有自由派和保守派。但近幾十年來，共和黨成員逐漸鄉村化；民主黨都市化。於是以鄉村為主的共和黨選民，總人數雖少於民主黨，投票的政治影響力持續增加，超過民主黨。反智而保守的選民已佔優勢。
意涵有二：
●共和黨政治優勢。三權分立的美國，目前共和黨已入主白宮主導行政，掌控國會主導立法，很可能即將主導司法。七月九日川普總統提名極為保守的Brett Kavanaugh為大法官接替立場居中的退休大法官Anthony Kennedy。最高法院九位終身職的大法官，自由派主導了卅年的將結束。
●政黨惡鬥常態化。美國國父華盛頓曾警告：「在報仇心態驅使下，黨派交替掌權，是可怕的暴政。」最近重要法案如歐巴馬健保，和川普減稅，都是兩黨壁壘分明下鬥爭通過的，埋下反對黨一旦執政將設法廢除的種子，陷政府於分裂。
作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授，曾任國防部副部長
林中斌，〈妙齡女創造科學怪人〉
《 聯合報》 2018年8月28日 頁 A15
accessed Sep 03, 2018
二○一八是小說《科學怪人》(Frankenstein)問世兩百周年。
故事：一位科學家在實驗室中意外的創造出聰明、醜陋的巨人。科學家在親人一一為怪物殺害後也步上被毀滅的後塵。
這本小說從未絕版過，而且它版本之多為所有小說之冠。一三年英國《衛報》 (Guardian)列它為世界一百本最佳小說中第八名。改編成無數舞台劇之外，至今它已拍成五十六部電影，下一部明年將上映。它反映出每一個世代人們對科技創新的不安和期望。
它的魅力跨越時間，以及空間。二○一四年，在戰火摧殘的敘利亞，居然出現得獎的阿拉伯文小說《巴格達的科學怪人》(Frankenstein in Bagdad)。
今年年初，紀念《科學怪人》兩世紀的生日，已有四本專書出版，研究它文學、心理、哲學、社會的意義。
它被譽為現代科幻小說之鼻祖，其影響力甚至跨入科學。今年美國National Science Foundation特地資助印行為科學家、工程師、和所有創新者所編的版本(Frankenstein: Annotated for Scientists, Engineers, and Creators of All Kinds)。科學期刊Science也在今年一月出版特刊及專文(The Long Shadow of Frankenstein)討論此書至今為何仍為科學家所必讀。無情冰冷的科學如何和有情熱血的人類共處？人類的科學發明又如何不會毀滅人類？這些議題隨了人工生命、基因改造、機器人等的出現愈形重要。
小說《科學怪人》如何誕生？
一八一六是歐洲歷史上「無夏日之年」。那是一七九○至一八三○年「道爾頓小冰河期」(Dalton Minimum)寒冷的極致。剛好又碰上印尼火山(Tambora Mount)爆發，火山灰長期遮蔽太陽，各地長久不見天日。六月中某晚，在陰雨綿綿的瑞士日內瓦湖畔，一座考究的別墅內，五位英國俊男美女，應景當時詭異的氣氛，比賽講恐怖故事。
出題目的是廿八歲的主人拜倫男爵，浪漫派大詩人，當時已經享譽歐陸。
在座的另一位是拜倫好友廿四歲的雪萊，浪漫派名詩人和作家。
第三位是廿歲的醫生，拜倫仰慕者(John Polidori)。
第四位是十八歲的瑪麗˙高德溫。她文雅秀麗，思想前瞻，十六歲已與雪萊私奔巴黎，一八一六年底將成為雪萊妻子。
第五位是瑪麗的繼妹Clare Claremont。
這比賽產生了兩本傳世的小說：Polidori醫生的《吸血鬼》(The Vampire) 和瑪麗˙雪萊的《科學怪人》。後者當時贏得比賽。
瑪麗的父親是新潮哲學家William Godwin。母親是女權運動先驅Mary Wollstonecraft，曾憧憬法國大革命，前往巴黎目睹恐怖的暴民，失望而歸。家庭環境自幼薰陶，妙齡瑪麗的智慧早已超越了一般的想像。母親生下瑪麗後，染病而亡，種下瑪麗心靈上的陰影。創造她的母親因她而死，有如創造怪人的科學家毀於怪人之手。巴黎街頭的叛亂和仇恨，由瑪麗的筆注入怪人的性格。
「我本善良，因醜而受苦，淪為惡魔。請設法使我快樂，我會回歸純潔。」怪人告訴科學家。後天環境決定我們的善惡，這才是作者的深意。
《科學怪人》開始用筆名發表。一八三一年第三版才用真名，評論家駁斥不可能為女性所著！
那時，拜倫因參戰而病死希臘七年。雪萊已辭世九年。瑪麗將守寡一生直至一八五一，享年五十四。
作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授，曾任國防部副部長
北京對台施壓極大化至何時？
June 8, 2018
●目前北京對台擴大操之在他的惠台措施，同時持續多做少說的心理施壓極大化。
●北京十九大後強化軟硬兩手策略，而不擔心失去台灣民心比爭取台灣民心更多。為何？
●北京考量是：希望在今年年底台灣縣市長選舉產生他樂見的效果，促使執政黨調整目前的兩岸政策。
●北京根據是：台灣民意對統獨、族群認同、跨海工作求學意願、對習近平好感度等已表現出有利北京的趨勢變化。變化夠多嗎？尚未。但其反轉數十年來趨勢的走向已浮出。
●北京的資料來自台灣公開的民調、北京暗中委託台灣機構所做的台灣民調、也可能包括廈門大學台研院以閩南語所做的民調。
●但是，年底選舉結果不見得對執政黨產生強達臨界點的衝擊。雖然執政者支持度下滑，但執政黨的對手仍然不夠強。
●另一項促使執政黨調整兩岸政策的可能是年底選舉前美、日對台支持發生足夠的、或關鍵性的變化。這項可能，在長遠的未來不能排除，但目前仍看不出來。
●無論如何，北京在年底台灣選舉後應會整體評估目前對台全面施壓的戰術。
●換言之，北京對台持續心理施壓極大化至少持續到年底選舉。
以上淺見，敬請賜教
林中斌 2018.6.8
accessed October 25, 2017
★此篇拙作共1,100字花3天2017.12.21-23寫成寄給聯合報。之後，再寄修成稿3次2017.12.23-24。
★此篇參考共61項資料(請見所附圖2)，包括53份剪報掃描檔，和8份下載文字資料。
★拙作文字檔貼在下方。另有兩篇英文資料附在拙作下方：
-- Richard Heydarian, "China's Regional Isolation" Al Jazeera November 23, 2015
-- "China Scores Diplomatic Coup in Sea Row" Agence France-Presse August 7, 2017
敬請賜教。
林中斌 2017.12.25
北京仍孤立於東亞？
林中斌
名人堂稿件
日期：20171223 本文字數：1100 目標字數:1100
「中國在東亞被孤立…鄰居紛紛倒向美國尋求保護。」二○一五年十一月，菲律賓學者R.Heydarian投書半島電台寫道。
兩年後的今日，情況如何？
●日本：鮮明抗中的首相安倍今年十一月，翻轉原來抵制態度，表示願意參與中國「一帶一路」建設，並力邀習近平明年訪日。當月底，派二百五十人的「聯合訪華團」擴大經濟交流。十二月四日，他稱中日對「一帶一路」可「大力合作」。
●新加坡：總理李顯龍九月下旬選擇先訪中再訪美，修補去年因李力挺不利北京的「南海仲裁案」而惡化的中新關係。早先六月，李一改之前冷淡態度，宣佈支持「一帶一路」。
●印度：今年六月，中印雙方軍隊於邊境洞朗地區開始對峙，八月結束。總理莫迪於九月三日上午，任命西塔拉曼女士為國防部長，取代號稱能打兩個半戰爭的前任，隨後於傍晚趕抵廈門參加習近平主持的「金磚五國峰會」。西塔拉曼十月七日前赴邊境，向中國軍隊合什問候並友好互動。八月底，印度邊防部隊開始要求士兵學會五、六十句中文，以避免雙方誤會並解決對抗。
●菲律賓：菲國為美國軍事同盟。其總統杜特蒂一六年六月底就任後，擱置同年七月公佈不利北京的「南海仲裁案」。這是他前任要求國際法庭審理的。他公開罵過美總統歐巴馬和美大使，已經兩次訪中。同年十一月，美國停售菲反恐用的步槍。他轉向中、俄求助。北京捐贈他兩批射程一公里的狙擊步槍，一七年五月他賴以收復伊斯蘭叛軍控制的菲國南部。同年二月，他要求中國軍艦協助打擊菲南部海盜，曾禁美國使用菲國港口，直到七月都不派駐美大使。
●緬甸：一一年，歐巴馬來訪，是歷史上首位訪緬的美國總統。美緬關係上升，中緬關係下降。同年，緬甸取消中國密松水壩計畫。西方力挺的民主鬥士昂山蘇姬，其政黨一五年贏得大選。她次年出任國務資政，相當於國家元首。之後，情形逆轉。至今她已兩次訪中，一次取消華府邀請。密松水壩計畫一六年恢復。一七年，她同意中國建造皎漂港，駐點印度洋。同年，她支持軍方鎮壓羅辛亞人民反抗，被美國譴責。而中國力挺她，並協助斡旋孟加拉協助解決問題。她更親中遠美。
●其他東協國家：一七年八月初，東盟外長會議達成「南海行為準則」架構。前述R. Heydarian認為：「這是中國外交大勝利。」英國南海專家B. Hayton表示：比起○二年的決議，這架構的文字有利中國甚多。對東協，北京的確下功夫。美國盟友泰國向它買潛艇。它幫印尼造高鐵。它也幫馬來西亞造高鐵，花四十億元美金承建皇京港。
●斯里蘭卡：本月初，漢班托港經營權移交中國。年初，新總理反對親中前總理所安排之本計劃，終於還是接受。
以上意料外變化原因為何？
●川普總統的「美國(國內)優先」政策令東亞國家不敢放心。
●北京的「支票外交」搭配「鬥而不破」的手段奏效。
東亞局勢板塊移動，台灣能不未雨綢繆？
作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授，曾任國防部副部長，甫發表新書《撥雲見日：破解台美中三方困局》
★China's regional isolation
http://www.aljazeera.com/…/china-regional-isolation-1511221…accessed Dec. 20, 2017
ASEAN summit saw member countries pushing for a legally binding 'code of conduct' in the South China Sea as a way to constraint China's territorial assertiveness in the area, writes Heydarian [AP]
On the surface, China looks nothing short of an Asian juggernaut. It boasts Asia's biggest economy, having eclipsed Japan in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and is poised to become the world's biggest in the near future.
It is already the world's largest trading power, having overtaken the United States in 2013. And within a relatively short period, China has emerged as a leading investor, particularly in the realm of infrastructure development, across the global south and beyond.
Unlike Japan, China is a comprehensive power, which isn't bedevilled by constitutional restrictions on the development of its offensive military capabilities. Flushed with cash and ambition, China has rapidly caught up with leading military powers, now boasting two operational fifth-generation jet fighters, an aircraft carrier, and sophisticated asymmetrical area-denial/anti-access (A2/AD) capabilities.
ASEAN summit leaders meet in Kuala Lumpur
No wonder then, that leading naval experts such as James Holmes have described China as "a near-peer [military] competitor vis-a-vis the United States" in East Asia.
And yet, one can't escape the impression that China is suffering increasing diplomatic isolation due to its aggressive manoeuvres across contested waters such as the South China Sea.
Not to mention that China's recent economic troubles, ranging from massive stock market crashes to declining manufacturing exports, have chipped away at its long-held image as a beacon of capitalist success.
Conscious of growing worries over China's economic health, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his keynote speech during the APEC summit, was adamant that his country's economy is strong, resilient, and dynamic.
All of a sudden, China has been on the diplomatic back foot, while the US and its allies have been confidently pushing for greater regional unity to ensure freedom of navigation and maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region.
The elephant in the room
China's weakened regional position was evident during the recently concluded Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summits.
Without a doubt, China is expected to stand its ground and further consolidate its territorial claims in adjacent waters. But it is also clear that Beijing is no longer seen as a fully benign, peacefully rising power by many of its neighbours.
Confronting criticism over its territorial assertiveness in adjacent waters, China desperately sought to eliminate any multilateral discussion of the South China Sea disputes.
Fearful that the Philippines, this year's APEC host and China's rival claimant state, would use the event to diplomatically confront Beijing, Xi refused to confirm his participation until the 11th hour, and making it conditional on the host's agreement to brush aside the maritime disputes during the APEC summit.
Before Xi's highly anticipated visit, China dispatched Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Manila to warn the Philippines against embarrassing his boss. In effect, Beijing tried to influence the summit's agenda so that no dark shadow would be cast on its image.
To secure Xi's participation, and to bolster its credentials as a magnanimous host, Manila promised not to mention the disputes in the main agenda of APEC, and extended a warm welcome to the Chinese leader.
Allies chip-in
After all, Xi's visit would mark his first to the Southeast Asian country, potentially paving the way for the resuscitation of long-frozen high-level contacts between the two countries. As the leader of the second biggest economy in the Asia-Pacific region, Xi's presence was considered as essential to a successful APEC summit.
Though China managed to block any discussion of the disputes in the APEC's main statements, the Philippines did bring the issue to the fore in its bilateral engagements on the sidelines of the summit.
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Shortly after landing in Manila, US President Barack Obama made a highly symbolic visit to the Philippines' flagship naval vessel BRP Gregorio del Pilar. He reiterated the United States' "ironclad commitment" to its alliance with the Philippines, pledging to donate two vessels and an increase in overall maritime security assistance to the country.
Both countries emphasised the centrality of freedom of navigation to regional security. For the US and its allies, China's massive reclamation activities and increased military presence across the South China Sea poses threats to freedom of navigation in one of the world's most important sea lines of communications.
Regional pushback
Vietnam, another maritime rival of China, also signed a strategic partnership agreement with the Philippines, which deepens diplomatic, legal, and naval cooperation between the two Southeast Asian countries against China. The new agreement was meant to signal to Beijing that its rivals in the South China Sea were forming a counter-alliance.
The Philippines signed a new military deal with Japan as well, another regional power that has been perturbed by China's maritime assertiveness. Under the latest deal, the Philippines is expected to benefit from greater military aid from and more regular joint naval exercises with Tokyo.
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Other regional powers such as Australia, South Korea and even Russia, offered greater military assistance to the Philippines, which has been caught in a precarious maritime dispute with China.
Earlier this month, an anxious China went so far as sabotaging a high-level talk among regional defence ministers, the ASEAN Defence Minister Meeting-Plus, by refusing to sign up to a joint statement that would have covered the South China Sea disputes.
Yet, to China's dismay, the recently concluded ASEAN summit saw Southeast Asian foreign ministers pushing for a legally binding "code of conduct" in the South China Sea as a way to constraint China's territorial assertiveness in the area.
Without a doubt, China is expected to stand its ground and further consolidate its territorial claims in adjacent waters. But it is also clear that Beijing is no longer seen as a fully benign, peacefully rising power by many of its neighbours, who have increasingly gravitated towards the US as the supposed guarantor of regional security in Asia. (CPL： Ironically, the trend has overturned by December 2017)
Richard Javad Heydarian is a specialist in Asian geopolitical/economic affairs and author of Asia's New Battlefield: US, China, and the Struggle for Western Pacific.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
★China scores diplomatic coup in sea row
Agence France-Presse / 07:07 AM August 07, 2017
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/…/china-scores-diplomatic-… accessed December 22, 2017
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks during a press conference on the sidelines of the 50th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) regional security forum in Manila on August 6, 2017. AFP
China on Sunday scored a diplomatic coup in its campaign to weaken regional resistance against its sweeping claims to the South China Sea when Southeast Asian nations issued a diluted statement on the dispute and agreed to Beijing’s terms on talks.
After two days of tense meetings on the dispute in the Philippine capital, foreign ministers from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) issued a joint communique that diplomats involved said was carefully worded to avoid angering China.
The release of the statement came shortly after the ministers met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and agreed on a framework for conducting negotiations on the decades-long row that included key clauses advocated by China.
“This is an important outcome of our joint effort,” Wang told reporters as he celebrated the agreement.
China claims nearly all of the strategically vital sea, through which $5 trillion in annual shipping trade passes and is believed to sit atop vast oil and gas deposits.
Its sweeping claims overlap with those of Asean members Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei, as well as Taiwan.
China has dramatically expanded its presence in the contested areas in recent years by building giant artificial islands that could be used as military bases, raising concerns it will eventually establish de facto control over the waters.
Duterte thanks China again for its help during 5-month Marawi siege
In what two diplomats involved said was another victory for Beijing on Sunday, Asean members declined to say in their joint statement that the hoped-for code of conduct with China be “legally binding”.
Vietnam, the most determined critic of China on the issue, had insisted during two days of negotiations that Asean insist the code be legally binding, arguing otherwise it would be meaningless.
The Asean ministers failed to release the joint statement as expected after meeting on Saturday because of their differences on the sea issue, with Vietnam pushing for tougher language and Cambodia lobbying hard for China.
“Vietnam is adamant, and China is effectively using Cambodia to champion its interests,” one diplomat told AFP on Sunday as negotiations extended into overtime.
Consensus struggle
Tensions over the sea have long vexed Asean, which operates on a consensus basis but has had to balance the interests of rival claimants and those more aligned to China.
Critics of China have accused it of trying to divide Asean with strong-armed tactics and checkbook diplomacy, enticing smaller countries in the bloc such as Cambodia and Laos to support it.
The Philippines, under previous president Benigno Aquino, had been one of the most vocal critics of China and filed a case before a UN-backed tribunal.
The tribunal last year ruled China’s sweeping claims to the sea had no legal basis.
But China, despite being a signatory to the UN’s Convention on the Law of the Sea, ignored the ruling.
The Philippines, under new President Rodrigo Duterte, decided to play down the verdict in favour of pursuing warmer ties with Beijing. This in turn led to offers of billions of dollars in investments or aid from China.
“It’s clear that China’s pressure on individual Asean governments has paid off,” Bill Hayton, a South China Sea expert and associate fellow with the Asia Program at Chatham House in London, told AFP.
Hayton and other analysts said the agreement on a framework for talks on Sunday came 15 years after a similar document was signed committing the parties to begin negotiations.
The 2002 document was more strongly worded against China.
China used those 15 years to cement its claims, while continuing to get Asean to issue ever-weaker statements of opposition, according to the analysts.
“It would appear China has never lost in terms of seeing the language of Asean forum statements being toned down,” Ei Sun Oh, adjunct senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told AFP.
Philippine academic and security analyst Richard Heydarian expressed stronger sentiments as he summarized Sunday’s developments: “Overall it’s a slam dunk diplomatic victory for China”. CBB
Jens Kastner Asiasentinel, December 12, 2017
https://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/china-pla-air-force-pressure-taiwan/
accessed December 13, 2017
●細膩的觀察和分析。文中指出:
--原來支持希拉蕊的"民進黨左翼"媒體現在批評川普，而民進黨政府國防花費又不足3%使川普不悅。此發展置蔡英文政府於兩難的 困境。因為蔡政府需要川普支持台灣對抗北京。
林中斌 2017.12.13
In the latest of an increasing number of close calls, the Chinese pilot of a H-6K strategic bomber set off alarms on Taiwan’s air defense identification zone off the island’s southern coast on Dec. 7, buzzing a scrambled Taiwanese F-16 fighter jet and radioing the pilot to get lost.
The PLA Air Force has increased its incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone in the second half of this year, with the Taiwanese military confirming five such forays in less than two months since the conclusion of China’s 19th Communist Party Congress in late October, where President Xi Jinping in his opening speech offered what was called by the Foreign Policy Research Institute an “exercise in chest thumping and minor sabre rattling over Taiwan.”
Prior to the Dec. 7 snub, intercepted by a Taiwanese amateur radio operator and published by Taiwan’s Apple Daily, mid-air encounters between the two sides had been relatively polite in tone, with the Chinese pilots often addressing the Taiwanese as “compatriots” despite serious political tensions.
The incident is regarded on the island as the latest indicator that the cross-strait military relation is entering a new and frightening era.
“PLA Air Force flights through the Miyako Strait and down the east side of Taiwan are serious war preparation exercises, and operations on the east side of Taiwan are required in order to impose an air and naval blockade that would precede an invasion,” said Rick Fisher, a cross-strait military expert at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in an interview with Asia Sentinel.
“It is very necessary for Taiwan to continually challenge such PLA exercises to demonstrate resolve and to publicize China’s essential hostility to a free Taiwan,” he added.
It is not only the changing tone and the increased frequency of PLA drills that alarm the Taiwanese but also way these drills are conducted.
Signaling that things are turning much more serious, Ilyushin Il-78 aerial refueling planes were recently added to the formations, allowing the PLA’s Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets to escort PLA bombers as far as to Hawaii.
Another noteworthy change is that the formations have now begun taking off from further away in the Chinese hinterland, making them more difficult to detect by Taiwan’s early warning systems.
The increased airborne threat is magnified by a growing seaborne one, as reflected by China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and its accompanying convoy in late 2016 for the first time completing a voyage circling Taiwan and continuing to operate frequently near the island.
According to Chen Ching-Chang, a Taiwan-born political scientist at Japan’s Ryukoku University, the PLA’s aircraft still cannot stay in eastern Taiwan’s air space for too long, and it remains risky for the aircraft carrier Liaoning to operate beyond the first-island chain. The PLA’s activities are as much about getting familiar with the area as about applying pressure on the administration of Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which still refuses to accept the “One China” principle.
“The fact that these activities to surround Taiwan stopped during the 19th Party Congress and the APEC and East Asia Summit meetings, which overlapped with [US President] Trump’s trip to Asia, means that they were driven more by the political motive of teaching Taipei a lesson than by the need of regular training,” Chen said.
He added that Japan, whose Self-Defense Forces have from April 2016 to March 2017 themselves scrambled a whopping 851 times for intercepting PLA aircraft, “would not be quiet about that” if the Japanese government had not lately been preoccupied with North Korean nuclear weapons and missile development.
John F Copper, a US political scientist and Taiwan expert, for his part noted that Taiwan’s scrambling of F-16s amid the recent PLA activities looks like a weak response to most, with the media reporting that China’s purpose in sending the Liaoning around Taiwan was to warn the DPP about supporting independence.
“It accentuates the fact that, contrary to what President Tsai and DPP leaders say, Taiwan will not decide its future,” Copper said. “The US will as only it prevents China from taking the island, which it could do easily according to recent studies and computer modelling.”
Copper went on arguing that the recent PLA activities also create a less obvious dilemma for President Tsai and what he calls “the left-of-center DPP,” as they supported Hillary Clinton in the US presidential race in 2016 but are now finding themselves completely relying on President Donald Trump.
The pro-DPP media reports a lot of anti-Trump news and opinions, Copper said, suggesting that Trump is no doubt not pleased about this and is unhappy about Taiwan not living up to promises it has made to the US about spending 3 percent of its GDP on the island’s defenses.
“PLA activities are a lot more frightening in Taiwan in view of this situation,” Copper said.
探討蔡習會
兩岸要突破 專家：得靠密使
2017/10/29 大紀元 江禹嬋
以下為2017.10.29 大紀元發表對在下有關蔡習會可能性的訪問。
題目或改為"兩岸要突破 高層管道有需要"
敬請賜教。
並請參閱：
●2017.10.12日聯合報報導 "川普請益季辛吉會後大談秘密外交"北韓軍武威脅增| 全球| 聯合新聞網
https://udn.com/news/plus/10172/2751912
美國總統川普下個月將訪問亞洲，他十日在白宮會晤美中關係重要推手、前國務卿季辛吉，利用機會向季辛吉請益。
●新華澳報 2017.10.8 社論 "十九大兩岸模式，算盤能否打得響？
http://www.waou.com.mo/news_b/shownews.php?lang=cn&id=23938
林中斌 2017.10.29
聯合報, 2017年10月13日
https://udn.com/news/story/7340/2754144?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2
accessed October 13, 2017
●這篇探索王岐山十九大去留的名人堂文稿今日登出。七天前(10/6)已寄交聯合報。
●這篇王岐山十九大留任的觀點符合前日(10/11)路透社駐北京首席記者林洸
耀發表 的報導，但在下這次並未向獲獎多次的前路透社駐北京社長林洸耀
請益。(Benjamin Kan Lim et al.,“China's Xi looks set to keep right-hand
man on despite age” Reuters October 11, 2017
https://www.reuters.com/…/us-china-congres…/chinas-xi-looks-
set-to-keep-right-hand-man-on-despite-age-idUSKBN1CG0JI)
●林洸耀的觀察是根據對16位不具名北京與官方有聯繫的內幕人士的訪問。
在下觀察的依據是公開資料和邏輯判斷。
●目前一般觀察家對王岐山去留看法仍然分歧。
林中斌 2017.10.13
●This monthly column of mine in the United Daily News entitled “Wang
Qishan Will Remain in Power after the Chinese Communist Party19th
Party Congress” is published today although my manuscript has been
submitted since a week ago on October 6.
●My view of WQS to remain in power conforms with that of an October 11
Reuters report by Benjamin Kan Lim et al.. However, this time I have not
consulted with Benjamin Lim who was Reuter’s bureau chief in Beijing,
and after having garnered several prestigious awards is the leading
Reuters Beijing journalist.
●While Benjamin Lim’s analysis is based on interviews with 16 anonymous
insiders with connections with Beijing leadership, mine is based on open
sources and logic.
●Currently, observers of Beijing politics remain severely divided on whether
WQS will or will not stay in power after next week.
Chong-Pin Lin October 13, 2017
王岐山十九大應會留任
林中斌
名人堂稿件
日期：20171006 本文字數1099 目標字數:1100
中共十九大將於十月十八日召開。各界關心的頭條是：習近平最依重的王岐山是否留任？日本和香港媒體說「不」，而英國媒體說「會」。北京雖然封鎖消息，但謠言滿天飛，令觀察家眼花撩亂，莫衷一是。
一年前，習近平大權在握但尚非全握。目前，他已徹底翻修了解放軍組織和人事，更接近大權全握。十九大王岐山去留，全看習近平。其他因素，如民意、官意、「派系平衡」皆非關鍵。但習面臨兩大考量，性質卻相反：
●不留王：在海外爆料王岐山貪腐，企圖令他失勢的富商郭文貴於是得逞。對北京來說，內外的後患無窮。國際上，支持保護郭文貴的西方政府於是找到北京的軟肋，以後會如法炮製。郭文貴二、郭文貴三…將陸續出現，隨時影響北京政局。國內，上千上萬受王岐山打貪而被懲的黨軍官員，將振振有辭的要求翻案重審，因為治罪他們的王岐山自己有罪。他們甚至可能策動遊行抗議不公。社會動盪，何日得了？
●留王：主打反貪的習近平，如何對外交代？郭文貴指控王岐山貪腐，北京至今沒有承認也沒有否認。如果郭文貴指控屬實，習近平以貪打貪，自失立場，人心不服，何以長久？
留王或不留王，都有顧忌，習如何拿捏？
在下淺見是：習會留王。並任命他主導將於一八年初成立的「國家監察委員會」(國監委)。理由如下：
●破除內外後遺症：不讓國外郭文貴倒王得逞，也不讓國內反王運動爆發。 中共黨的「中紀委」與政府的「國監委」是兩個機構但合署辦公。「國監委」與「國務院」是平級，執行「異體監督」。「國監委」領導與「國務院」總理也是平級。「國監委」領導在國外，可受總理的待遇。那是王岐山之前所任中紀委書記沒有的國際尊榮。
「國監委」為新設立的機構，其領導是否任政治局常委，無先例可循。如果十九大通過主席制，習為黨、軍、國家三合一的主席，王必為黨的副主席而無必要任政治局常委。
●十八大後收手不究：一六年六月廿二日新華社提到「一四年四月，王岐山說…在十八大以前…官員…把腐敗當成了一種正常現象…(其)行為可能是迫於壓力和環境不得已而為之,而黨的十八大以後…及時收手至少在對反腐的認識上與中央保持了一致。」
一五年一月四日「中國共產黨第十八屆中央紀律檢查委員會第五次全體會議公報」再提到「重點查處十八大後不收斂、不收手(的官員)」。換言之，王岐山家族在十八前收斂收手，就不在重點查處之列。甚至還能「坦白從寬」。
這是王岐山對國營企業揮舞紀委大刀前的伏筆。他應該在一四年四月前已和習近平交代他家族涉入國企的情況，並劃出這條時間線自保。(此項觀察及相關文獻為資深中共軍事及政治分析家亓樂義先生提供)
如此，強調打貪的習至少有個可向元老及黨內高層交代的說法。
何況，王岐山點子多、能力強，正是習近平今後五年改革不可或缺的助力。
作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授，曾任國防部副部長，甫發表新書《撥雲見日：破解台美中三方困局》
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/paper/1139920
accessed October 3, 2017
● 自由時報(2017.10.1) 和亞洲週刊 (2017.10.8號但於2017.10.2上架)幾乎同時登載要重視"古典力"的言論。兩份基本立場明顯不同的期刊呼籲相同的關切。是巧合？或突顯此議題的重要性已跨越了政治立場？
● 兩篇所根據的是4年前(2013)由天下雜誌出版的日本學者 齋藤孝所著"古典力"的中文譯本。
● 齋藤孝所著"古典力"呼應了 1998年美國歷史學者 Alf J. Mapp Jr. 所著 "Golden Ages" (黃金朝代)的主題之一。即治理國家，古典的智慧不能拋棄。
● "Golden Ages" (黃金時時代) 提到歷史三個輝煌的案例：
1. 文藝復興時代的翡冷翠/弗羅倫斯
2. 伊利沙白一世的英國
3. 開國時期的美國
● 這三個黃金朝代共同點是同時重視古文化和探索新領域。新事務與舊思想碰撞產生的火花創造出燦爛的成就，和強盛的國家。
●十九世紀瑞士偉大的哲學家、教育家、藝術家博哈特說： "擺脫傳統的人，變得太弱太窮，而無法靠自己創造出偉大的成就。沒有過去的人只是個蠻人。" "man, divorces from tradition, is too weak and too poor a creature to create greatness out of himself..... Without his past man is a barbarian." (Jacob Christoph Burckhardt 1818-1897, Swiss philosopher)
● 歌德在1832年所寫的最後一封信裡說："最好的天才 能吸收新事務，同時毫不減損他祖先傳下來的精華，反而把家傳的優點發揚光大。" "the best genius is that which absorbs the new, without this in the least impairing its inheritance, but rather enhancing it".
林中斌 2017.10,3
The Democrats’ Dilemma
accessed September 28, 2017
川普總統可能連任，如果民主黨無法自我整合。目前，民主黨是分裂的。時代雜誌2017.10.2 pp.28-33.
"撥雲見日"出版前，我考慮再三，決定刪去"川普可能連任"的文字。
林中斌 2017.9.28
林中斌：台只論軍事將重蹈國共內戰失利覆轍
梁雅雯 中評社 2017年8月23日
http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1047/8/8/5/104788513.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=104788513&mdate=0825164054
accessed August 23, 2017
● 這篇可能是2017.8.23新書發表會最全面，較準確的報導。
林中斌 2017.8.25
中評社台北8月23日電（記者 梁雅雯）
前“國防部”軍政副部長、前陸委會首席副主委林中斌23日下午在新書《撥雲見日：破解台美中三方困局》發表會上表示，大陸一向以超軍事手段和軍事手段並用，現階段對台政策就是超軍事手段，不得以才會攻打，因為買台灣比打台灣便宜。
林中斌強調，大陸一向以超軍事手段和軍事手段並用，“國軍”內戰失利部分原因就是忽略大陸超軍事手段和軍事手段合併運用，今天台灣如果再度就軍事論軍事，來處理對岸的威脅，勢必會重蹈覆轍。
林中斌和資深媒體人、“國防部”《國防報告書》諮詢委員會亓樂義合著新書《撥雲見日：破解台美中三方困局》今天發表。發表會在孫立人將軍官邸（陸軍聯誼社）舉行。
林中斌表示，世界局勢變化快速，美中台三方未來可望出現多贏局面，鬥而不破將成為主要國家處理矛盾的方式。大陸買台灣比打台灣便宜，不會武統台灣。
林中斌臚列大陸各種統戰台灣方式，主要分為“文統”和“武統”兩類，在這兩類裡又各分為四策，分別是上上策“心靈契合”、上策“不戰統台”、下策“點穴戰”或“癱瘓戰”，下下策是“傳統戰”或“殲滅戰”。
林中斌提到，大陸現階段使用的，就是上策“不戰統台”的超軍事手端，不得以才會攻打，現況處於超軍事手段階段，祭出優厚待遇吸收台灣青年，再搭配窮台政策。買臺灣比打台灣便宜。
林中斌表示，現在的戰爭都是小國的內戰，以及大國打小國的戰爭，大國之間的戰爭已不可能爆發，中美間不可能兵戎相見。而目前台、美、中三方可望創造多贏可能，1914年8月歐戰爆發的一次大戰不可能會重演有4個理由如下：
第一，大家都有核子武器，雙方即使擦槍走火可能升高為核武大戰，沒有贏家。第二，全球化、網路化經濟高度互相依存。第三，衝突現場視訊掌控，可隨時叫停。第四，曾出現於小國的瘋狂領袖，不可能在大國長期高居上位。
此外，林中斌也提到，美國總統特朗普當選的意涵，包括美國政治模範落漆、美國社會嚴重分裂、特朗普對美國盟友態度惡劣，讓他們紛紛傾向北京、美國自省再生，不再超強霸世、美國與中國在東亞合作將超過對抗、美國亂象非特朗普一人一時造成等。
該書提到“蔡習會”探索篇章中提到，日本記者觀察到習近平批“台獨”時，未點名蔡英文，在兩岸官方互動冷的時刻，態度耐人尋味。由2017年春向前展望，雖然表面看起來機會渺茫，但不能排除的是“蔡習會”苗頭已萌芽。
今天會中有記者追問“蔡習會”章節，林中斌未直接回答，僅表示，他對“國內”問題沒有深入研究，要大家參照書上內文。
林中斌，居留北美29年，未入外國籍、未加入任何政黨。曾任“國防部”軍政副部長、陸委會首席副主委、美國華府智庫“美國企業研究院”（AEI）專任學者兼亞洲研究部副主任、美國華府喬治城大學外交學院講座教授、高雄中山大學政治研究所教授兼所長、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所教授。
買台灣，比打台灣便宜得多
藍孝威 中國時報 2017年8月24日
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170824000418-260108
accessed August 24, 2017
自去年520後，大陸鷹派常發出以武力統一台灣論調。不過，前國防部副部長林中斌認為，現在大陸不會發起戰爭，但會以強大軍事力量為後盾，綜合經濟、宗教、社會等各種「超軍事手段」對付台灣。
由林中斌和軍事評論員亓樂義合著的《撥雲見日：破解台美中三方困局》昨舉行新書發表會。對錯綜複雜的台、美、中三邊關係，大陸方面時而發出武統威脅聲浪，林中斌指出，大陸統一台灣的方式，戰爭是最下策，要付出的成本最大，「買台灣，比打台灣便宜得多。」
書中舉例，大陸經濟崛起後，手中能打的牌變多，「一帶一路」就是強大武器。今年5月14日，大陸國家主席習近平在北京舉行「一帶一路國際合作高峰論壇」開幕式上大撒銀彈，指亞投行已為「一帶一路」建設參與國的9個專案，提供17億美元貸款，「絲路基金」投資達40億美元，今後大陸還將向「絲路基金」新增資金1000億元人民幣，同時，鼓勵金融機構開展人民幣海外基金業務，規模約3000億人民幣。
林中斌說，大陸對菲律賓打的就是經濟牌。當初兩國為南海主權爭執不下，菲律賓甚至把大陸告上國際法庭，判決結果也對大陸不利，但大陸趁菲國大選，對朝野兩組候選人均承諾經濟援助，結果成功改變菲律賓對南海的強硬立場，轉而向大陸靠攏。
亓樂義認為，大陸是全球第二大經濟體，中產階級變多，「三億人信仰宗教，有錢人不想打仗」。他也斷言大陸不會發動戰爭，但小型衝突、緊張、對峙不可避免；他也提醒，結合經濟、文化、宗教等「超軍事手段」能做到「巧戰而屈人之兵」，各界須有所警惕。
出版書籍/books published (8) 論文與評論/papers & opeds (4) 講演與受訪/speeches & interviews (2) 全球磁變/Global shift (1) 休閒/leisure (9) 授課資料/teaching (4) 心靈探索/Spiritual Exploration (2)
