林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Trump’s America

DOUGLAS MARTIN, The New York Times, Sept 5, 2015

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21663225-why-donald-dangerous-trumps-america

 川普的弱點是講話前後不一致。他的強項有二。一是財力雄厚，二是共和黨競爭者多，川普不需要絕對多數(超過50%)，只要相對多數即可出現成為總統候選人。

林中斌 2015.9.5

         First, as a billionaire, he will not run out of money to finance his campaign. Second, he faces so many Republican opponents that he could grab the nomination with only a modest plurality of the vote

China’s expanding global influence

Macquarie; Bernstein Research; USDA; World Coal Association; Oxford Institute for Energy Studies; World Bank; IMF

accessed Aug 31, 2015

Japan’s plutonium problem

Peter Wynn Kirby, The New York Times, Aug 16, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/17/opinion/japans-plutonium-problem.html

  accessed Aug 17, 2015

 這是多數人忽略的問題：日本擁有47頓鈽，而安全儲藏是個大問題。

What drives the heroes

Erez Yoeli and David Rand, The New York Times, Aug 28, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/opinion/the-trick-to-acting-heroically.html

  accessed May 25, 2015

在危急狀況下救人的英雄行為大多是直覺的衝動而未經利害分析。

Chong-Pin Lin, “Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Struggle without Breaking”

Asian Survey May/June 2015 pp. 478 -501

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2CA5YyEY_eVZGJERl8zTTdTc0k/view?pli=1

  accessed August 14, 2015

This May/June 2015 Asian Survey article entitled "Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Strugggle without Breaking" is an invited contribution by Asian Survey based on a keynote speech at the September 2012 U.C. Berkeley conference on South China Sea. The article was published on August 8, 2015, about three years after the speech was delivered.

The non-mainstream views presented in 2012 -- such as " struggle without breaking", "toughness abroad draws domestic applause", that a Sino-Japan Diaoyus/Senkakus conflict won’t happen, the two-faced US policy in East Asia, the budding/rising accommodation school in the U.S., the hedging of China's neighbors, the Bo Xilai link to China's post-2009 rising assertiveness -- have remained largely non-mainstream today. However, they have survived the test of three years of time.

The article contains 72 footnotes (usually 40 footnotes as stipulated by Asian Survey), over 10,000 words (usually 8,000/9,000 words for AS).

Chong-Pin Lin August 11, 2015

這一篇柏克萊大學出版的Asian Survey 期刊在 2015年5/6月期登載的拙文 "與中國在東亞上升的海事爭端真相: 鬥而不破" 在今年8月8日出版。那是根據2012年9月在加州柏克萊大學的學術會議裡的主題演說，由Asian Survey 邀稿。

文中呈現2012年許多非主流的看法如 -- 鬥而不破、對外強硬對內收割、中日釣島戰不會爆發，美國在東亞的兩面性、美國調適派的萌芽和崛起、中國鄰國的兩面下注、2009年後中國開始的對外強硬和薄熙來的因素-- 如今仍為非主流。但已經過三年時間的考驗。

此文含72腳註(通常Asian Survey 限定40, 而作者初稿原有過百的腳註), 1萬多字(通常限定8千/9千字)。

敬請賜教。林中斌2015.8.11

U.S.A, land of limitations?

Nicholas Kristof, The New York Times, August 9, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/opinion/sunday/nicholas-kristof-usa-land-of-limitations.html

 accessed August 14 , 2015

在美國，社會低層20%的小孩一生能爬至上層20%的人只有4%，在英國，有12%可上爬至上層20%，美國這大國的弱點是社會問題。    林中斌 2015.8.10

習近平破獲第二次政變的內幕

2015/08/07 大紀元 大陸政治 林銳

http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/15/8/6/n4497160.htm

   Accessed August 14, 2015

這是值的參考的"小道消息"。請注意第一次政變的18人名單。

Stock Markets Vex China's Leaders

YASHENG HUANG, The New York Times, August 6, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/07/opinion/yasheng-huang-stock-markets-vex-chinas-leaders.html?_r=0

 accessed August 14, 2015

什麼力量使習李2013所提之”新常態”在股災時被推翻? 黃亞生是MIT的教授及商學院副院長。大陸留美學者。無明確政治立場，此篇分析明晰，但勾出上述的疑問。

This is an in-depth, unbiased analysis of China's stock market disaster. The question I have after reading it is why Xi and Li, already having pronounced a policy of "new normal" (i.e. pursuing qualitative rather than quantitative economic growth) back in 2013, still allowed the government to wrongly encourage the boosting of stock market growth?

Is it because Xi and Li were ignorant economically, ill-advised? Or, is it because some "forces" were at work to sabotage the economic balance?

Robert Conquest, Historian Who Documented Soviet Horrors, Dies at 98

WILLIAM GRIMES, The New York Times, August 4, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/arts/international/robert-conquest-historian-who-documented-soviet-horrors-dies-at-98.html?_r=0

  accessed August 14, 2015

他出身英國上層社會，詩人、科幻迷，牛津畢業後參加共產黨。二次大戰從軍，負責情報，發現史大林屠殺兩千萬人民。之後成為蘇聯研究權威、歷史大師、極端反共。常常依據和別人一樣的資料做出與人不同的正確判斷。

他認為史大林的殘暴是列寧的延續，只不過變本加厲。也就是說，史大林並非特例或變種。

以上照片攝於2010年，他93歲。

Robert Conquest, Historian Who Documented Soviet Horrors, Dies at 98
WILLIAM GRIMES, The New York Times, August 4, 2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/arts/international/robert-conquest-historian-who-documented-soviet-horrors-dies-at-98.html?_r=0
  Accessed August 14, 2015

他出身英國上層社會，詩人、科幻迷，牛津畢業後參加共產黨。二次大戰從軍，負責情報，發現史大林屠殺兩千萬人民。之後成為蘇聯研究權威、歷史大師、極端反共。常常依據和別人一樣的資料做出與人不同的正確判斷。
他認為史大林的殘暴是列寧的延續，只不過變本加厲。也就是說，史大林並非特例或變種。
以上照片攝於2010年，他93歲。