林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Taipei Takes Wary View After Chat

The Wall Street Journal, DEC 5, 2016

http://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-celebrates-trump-callcautiously-1480857008

 accessed Dec. 5, 2016

• In the short term, said Lin Chong-pin, a former deputy defense minister, “Taiwan deserves to be happy about this.” Yet he too has reservations, arguing that Mr. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric casts doubt on the sincerity of his outreach to Taiwan. 
  
  “Will Taiwan help improve the U.S. domestically? Yes, by buying weapons,” he said. “Will the U.S. come to Taiwan’s rescue when the People’s Liberation Army attacks Taiwan? Of course not.”

Taiwan, pushed into a diplomatic corner by Beijing, is quietly celebrating a breakthrough—the first call between a U.S. president-elect and a Taiwan leader since 1979. It is also nervous.

Among academics, journalists and government officials, the question is whether U.S. President-elect Donald Trump was playing the “Taiwan card” against Beijing by chatting on the phone with President Tsai Ing-wen on Friday, and if so what are the consequences.

“It is a landmark move for both sides,” said Wang Kao Cheng, dean of the College of International Studies at Tamkang University.

But he added: “The concern is that Beijing will divert its anger onto Taiwan.” That might mean anything from trade reprisals to efforts by China to further isolate Taiwan internationally.

Taiwan appeared careful not to gloat about the call, precisely because it worries that might goad Beijing into taking retaliatory action. Taiwanese presidential office spokesman Alex Huang said at a news conference that improving ties with Washington and Beijing was “equally important” to Taiwan and the endeavors didn’t conflict.

That cautious stance reflects Ms. Tsai’s personality and leadership style. Those close to her say that as a seasoned international trade negotiator, Ms. Tsai is pragmatic and methodical and doesn’t want to further upset an already tense relationship with China since her election.

Kung Ling-shin, chairman of the Journalism Department at Mingchuan University, cautioned Ms. Tsai against misreading the gesture.

Amid her administration’s elation, he wrote in an op-ed piece in the Apple Daily, a local paper critical of China, “are they aware that Trump is not only using Taiwan as a chess piece, he is also treating Taiwan like a loyal customer of U.S. arms sales?”

Mr. Trump had tweeted that Taiwan had bought billions of dollars of U.S. military equipment over the years.

“Trump is a businessman and could sell Taiwan out at any time,” Mr. Kung concluded.

Such a risk hasn’t been overlooked by the Tsai administration. “We are very cautious because we know that if Taiwan gets too close to the U.S., China would react negatively. We have considered all scenarios and we are managing our risks accordingly,” said a top aide to President Tsai.

Analysts said the landmark phone call will help lift Ms. Tsai’s sagging approval rating, though far from enough to embolden the administration to pivot toward declaring formal independence—a move that China has said it wouldn’t tolerate.

Taiwan relies heavily on exports to China for its growth and is therefore particularly vulnerable to a crisis in U.S.-China relations that could raise military tensions and disrupt trade.

In the short term, said Lin Chong-pin, a former deputy defense minister, “Taiwan deserves to be happy about this.” Yet he too has reservations, arguing that Mr. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric casts doubt on the sincerity of his outreach to Taiwan.

“Will Taiwan help improve the U.S. domestically? Yes, by buying weapons,” he said. “Will the U.S. come to Taiwan’s rescue when the People’s Liberation Army attacks Taiwan? Of course not.”

Over the years, Taiwan has learned to be wary of U.S. presidents-elect. Ronald Reagan,Bill Clinton and George W. Bush all took office pledging closer relations with Taipei. Mr. Bush promised “whatever it takes” to defend the island. Once in office, however, they all prioritized ties with China.

Mr. Trump has an uphill task persuading Asian countries the U.S. will remain committed to the region after campaign rhetoric that branded him as protectionist and isolationist. Those doubts, along with the spectacle of a chaotic democratic process, feed into China’s narrative that America’s best days are behind it and it is in the best interest of countries in the region to jump onto the Beijing bandwagon.

Ms. Tsai is fighting economic stagnation, and although she has made an effort to diversify the island’s economy toward South and Southeast Asia, the reality is that Taiwan is inextricably tied to the mainland’s manufacturing supply chains.

Political analysts said it remains to be seen if Mr. Trump’s recent display of friendliness toward Taiwan is a harbinger of things to come and said a key barometer to watch is who the U.S. will allow Taiwan to send as envoy to attend Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January. In the past, only the legislative speaker was permitted to attend, and at the invitation of Congress, not the White House.

“How [the latest development] will shape the future of the Taiwan-U.S. relationship is a big guessing game,” said Mr. Lin, the former deputy defense minister.