林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Katie Hunt, “China's ramping up pressure on Taiwan”

CNN May 29, 2018

●這報導中所引用在下淺見是根據昨天早上CNN記者電話的訪問。

●記者問的很詳細，寫的很謹慎。沒有加油添醬，沒有斷章取義。

●中斌回國廿三年，幾乎已忘卻之前在國外所習慣的記者訪問風格。

敬請賜教

林中斌 2018.5.29

●Chong-Pin Lin, a former deputy defense minister in Taiwan, said he believes reunification is still a long-term goal for Xi. For now, he says, Beijing is focused on deterring Taiwan from making a declaration of independence -- something that would be a huge embarrassment for Xi.

"Beijing is skillful at applying psychological pressure on Taiwan," he says.

●Although Tsai has been "very prudent" since being elected in 2016 and tried to restrain the more radical wing of her party, says Lin, Beijing may feel that she will look to appeal to her base as mid-term elections near.

●However, in Taiwan, some analysts fear that an erratic and unpredictable President Trump may use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions in his dealings with China on North Korea or trade.

"Taiwan-US relations are pretty good right now, but we don't know what the future holds," said Lin.

CNN專文 中國升高對台灣施壓

中央廣播電台

黃啟霖

2018年5月29日 下午5:47

美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)今天(29日)以「中國升高對台施壓(China's ramping up pressure on Taiwan)」為題，大篇幅報導北京正意圖加速孤立台灣，在過去一個月中，讓台灣數量已不多的邦交國再少掉兩國。

報導指出，台灣不僅在外交上受到中國打壓，跨國公司要如何稱呼台灣也承受中國的壓力。此外，中國軍方在台灣海峽大秀肌肉的情形也日漸普遍。

報導指出，中國和擁有民主制度、自己治理的台灣之間升高緊張，為華府在處理與北京關係時，增加了另一項隱憂，因為美國總統川普(Donald Trump)的政府已和中國在貿易、北韓以及南海問題上意見不合。

CNN指出，華府則對台灣表達更密切的支持，並將在6月間，美國事實上的駐台大使館落成之際，高調展現與台灣站在一起。

美國的新大使館是原來使館的3倍大。

◎中國如何持續對台施壓

多年來，北京一步步的縮減台灣有限的外交盟邦，但在一個月內先後挖走多明尼加共和國和布吉納法索，仍然是前所未見。

台灣指控北京施展「金錢外交」，也就是以金錢誘使友邦改投中國懷抱的策略。對越來越富裕、口袋越來越深的中國而言，此種戰略變得更為容易。

中國民用航空局最近警告44家外國航空公司，要在30日內將官網上的台灣標示列為中國領土。凡是未配合變更的公司，都受到北京的注意。但美國在5月5日直言批評，中國此舉為「歐威爾式的胡言亂語」(Orwellian nonsense)。

不僅如此，日本知名連鎖零售商無印良品(Muji)在上海的分店，就因為把產品的產地標示為台灣，而遭到中國罰款。

此外，報導還指出，中國也連續第二年不讓台灣參加世界衛生組織(WHO)的年會，即使以觀察員資格出席都不允許，使得台灣2,300萬人被排除在全球防疫體系之外，無法取得有助於全球疾病疫情的相關訊息。

◎中國的目的

CNN指出，中國和台灣儘管有共同的文化，並同樣以中文為官方語言，但從1949年至今雙方一直處於分治狀態。

把台灣拉回中國，是過去70年來，中國統治者無法達成的夢想，如果習近平能夠做到，將成為他的巨大成就，而習近平現在有可能終身統治。

CNN引述台灣前國防部副部長林中斌表示，他相信，統一依然是習近平的長期目標；而現在，北京的注意力集中在嚇阻台灣不要宣布獨立，否則將令習近平非常難堪。

林中斌表示，北京很擅於對台灣施加心理壓力。

CNN指出，現任總統蔡英文所屬的民進黨，傳統上傾向支持正式獨立。而儘管蔡英文在2016年當選總統後一直非常謹慎，極力限制民進黨內的激進派系，但林中斌表示，北京或許覺得，蔡英文只是為了今年的期中選舉考慮。

不過，北京不是只有棒子，也有胡蘿蔔。今年2月，北京發布31項對台措施，讓台灣人更方便到中國大陸工作、做生意和讀書，其中包括老師和醫生。

◎美國的角色

CNN指出，台灣與美國的關係儘管屬非官方性質，但雙方關係顯然穩固。美國依據台灣關係法提供防衛武器。

美國國會不理會來自中國的壓力，通過台灣旅行法，並在3月間由川普簽署成為法律。這項法律的目的，在讓美國官員更方便訪台，也方便台灣官員訪問美國。

此外，共和黨聯邦參議員賈德納(Cory Gardner)，以及和民主黨聯邦參議員馬基(Edward Markey)，在25日共同提出跨黨派的「2018台灣國際參與法案」(TIPA)，以確保台灣在國際舞台的空間，不會遭到進一步限縮。

這兩位參議員說：「這項跨黨派法案將協助確保主要國際組織，不會因為中國施展霸凌手段，就對我們的盟友台灣視而不見。」

不過，台灣部份分析家擔心，川普不穩定又難以預測，可能會利用台灣，作為與中國處理北韓和貿易問題時，迫使中國讓步的籌碼。

林中斌表示：「台美關係目前相當好，但我們不知道未來的情況會如何。」

China's ramping up pressure on Taiwan

Hong Kong (CNN) - Beijing's push to isolate Taiwan is gathering pace, with two of the island's few remaining allies switching allegiance to China in the past month.

Taiwan isn't just taking heat from China diplomatically. Multi-national companies are being pressured over how they describe Taiwan, with Beijing insisting they follow its line that the island is an integral part of China. Shows of force by the Chinese military in the Taiwan Strait, the narrow strip of water that divides the two, are also becoming more commonplace.

This ratcheting up of tensions between China and the self-governed, democratic island opens up another fault line for Washington in its dealings with Beijing, with the Trump administration already at odds with China over trade, North Korea and the South China Sea.

Washington has signaled closer support for Taiwan and a high-profile demonstration of solidarity comes in June when the United States opens a new complex to house its de facto embassy in Taipei that's three times the size of the original building.

Here's what you need to know about the potential flashpoint.

How has China been piling on the pressure?

While Beijing has been chipping away at Taiwan's shallow bench of diplomatic allies for years, the loss of two -- Burkina Faso and the Dominican Republic -- in the space of a month is unprecedented.

Taiwan accuses Beijing of "dollar diplomacy," enticing countries to switch allegiance with cash or other incentives -- a strategy that's become easier as China's grown richer and its pockets deeper.

Beijing has also focused its attention on companies that don't toe its line on Taiwan. Some 44 airlines were recently warned not to list Taiwan separately from China on their websites and given a deadline to comply, a move the US government has described on May 5 as "Orwellian nonsense."

Most recently, Japanese retailer Muji has been fined for coat-hanger packaging that described Taiwan as a country.

China has also prevented Taiwan from attending, even as an observer, the annual meeting of the World Health Organization's decision making body for two consecutive years, a move that excludes the island's 23 million people from information that helps prevent outbreak of global diseases.

No target is too small. In the small Australian town of Rockhampton, tiny fish-shaped Taiwan flags featured on a children's art project displayed in public were painted over, reportedly at the behest of Beijing.

What's China's goal?

China and Taiwan -- officially the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China, respectively -- separated in 1949 following the Communist victory in a civil war that saw the Nationalists flee to the island.

The two sides have been governed separately since, though a shared cultural and linguistic heritage mostly endures -- with Mandarin spoken as the official language in both places.

Bringing Taiwan back to the fold has eluded China's Communist leaders for nearly seven decades and would be a huge achievement for President Xi Jinping, who now has the option to rule for life.

Chong-Pin Lin, a former deputy defense minister in Taiwan, said he believes reunification is still a long-term goal for Xi. For now, he says, Beijing is focused on deterring Taiwan from making a declaration of independence -- something that would be a huge embarrassment for Xi.

"Beijing is skillful at applying psychological pressure on Taiwan," he says.

President Tsai Ing-wen's Democratic Progressive Party has traditionally leaned in favor of formal independence from China, compared to Taiwan's other main political party, the Kuomintang, as the Nationalists are known locally.

Although Tsai has been "very prudent" since being elected in 2016 and tried to restrain the more radical wing of her party, says Lin, Beijing may feel that she will look to appeal to her base as mid-term elections near.

However, it's not just about the stick for Beijing. China has also been encouraging integration. In February, China's Taiwan Affairs Officer revealed 31 new measures to promote exchange and cooperate with Taipei, many of which make it easier for those from Taiwan to work, do business and study in mainland China, including teachers and doctors.

How does the US fit in?

Despite their unofficial nature, Taiwan's ties with the US, which provides arms to the island under the Taiwan Relations Act, appear strong.

Defying strong pressure from China, Congress passed the Taiwan Travel Act, which US President Donald Trump signed into law in March, by unanimous vote in both houses. It aims to make it easier for US officials to visit the island and Taiwan officials to visit the US.

Another bi-partisan bill aimed at ensuring Taiwan's space in the world stage isn't diminished further was launched on Friday by Republican Sen. Core Gardner and Democratic Sen. Edward Markey.

"This bipartisan legislation will help ensure that major international organizations do not turn a blind eye to our ally Taiwan simply because of China's bullying tactics," the senators said.

And when the Trump administration opens the new American Institute in Taiwan, as the unofficial embassy is called, on June 12, it's possible that high-ranking members of the Trump administration will attend.

However, in Taiwan, some analysts fear that an erratic and unpredictable President Trump may use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions in his dealings with China on North Korea or trade.

"Taiwan-US relations are pretty good right now, but we don't know what the future holds," said Lin.

What's Taiwan doing about it?

Taiwan has long been used to operating in China's shadow.

In 1971, the Republic of China was forced to withdraw from the United Nations after a motion was passed recognizing the People's Republic as the only lawful representative of China to the UN. Many other countries followed suit, including the United States, which switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing 1979 but has maintained unofficial ties with Taipei.

Its unofficial relationships, especially with the United States, ultimately carry greater weight than its smaller, formal allies. Taiwan has representative offices, which act as de facto embassies, in more than 100 cities and a passport issued in Taiwan allows visa-free access to 148 countries, compared to 70 for China.

Many people in Taiwan barely bat an eyelid when a diplomatic ally is lost -- seeing the money the government spends on maintaining and cultivating these small countries as a waste.

What will be key is if Beijing's pressure has an impact on the island's more powerful allies, like the US, EU or Japan or on the companies that do business there.

As Beijing has ramped up pressure, Taiwan's government has been more vocal in calling out Beijing's tactics.

It has publicly criticized some companies who have bowed to Beijing's pressure. And Tsai warned of a red line in a statement issued last week in the wake of Burkina Faso's decision to ditch Taiwan.

"China's efforts to undermine our national sovereignty are already challenging Taiwan society's bottom line. This we will no longer tolerate," said President Tsai.

"We will simply redouble our resolve and continue to engage with the world."