林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

"With Ships and Missiles, China Is Ready to Challenge U.S. Navy in Pacific"

New York Times, Aug 29, 2018

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/world/asia/china-navy-aircraft-carrier-pacific.html

accessed September 10, 2018

這是一篇紐約時報對中國海軍驚人大躍進的報導。涵蓋面廣，資料的來源引據確實。是目前最完整的解放軍海軍現代化報告。

●2017年 軍艦與潛艦總數：
中國 317：美國 283
2017年，中國海軍已成全球最大。
●今年3月，美國印太艦隊司令Philip S. Davidson上將說："除了正式開戰之外，中國現在已可在各種狀況下控制南海。...未來即使開戰，美國沒有把握打贏中國"。

“China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States,” the new commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Philip S. Davidson, acknowledged in written remarks submitted during his Senate confirmation process in March.....
“There is no guarantee that the United States would win a future conflict with China,” he concluded.

●蘭德公司的專家Lyle Morris說："中國在西沙南沙部署飛彈使得美國必須部署軍艦在它們射程以外，但中國飛彈射程愈來越遠，使得美國這招變為不可能。"

Lyle Morris, an analyst with the RAND Corporation, said that China’s deployment of missiles in the disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands “will dramatically change how the U.S. military operates” across Asia and the Pacific.

The best American response, he added, would be “to find new and innovative methods” of deploying ships outside their range. Given the longer range of the ballistic missiles, however, that is not possible “in most contingencies” the American Navy would be likely to face in Asia.

●過去10年，中國建造100多艘軍艦，此數目甚至超過許多國家的海軍總數。
The carriers attract the most attention but China’s naval expansion has been far broader. The Chinese Navy — officially the People’s Liberation Army Navy — has built more than 100 warships and submarines in the last decade alone, more than the entire naval fleets of all but a handful of nations.