林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

經濟學人看香港更旺 孤立中國難

accessed March 20, 2021

經濟學人 2021.3.20 頁 7&8

- 香港更旺 -"You might think the death of liberalism in Asia's financial centre (Hong Kong), which hosts $10trn  of cross-border investments, would trigger panic,  capital flight, and a business exodus. Instead, Hong Kong is enjoying a financial boom. Shar offerings have soared... Western firms are in the thick of it: the top underwriters are Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Last year, the value of US dollars cleared in Hong Kong, a hub for theworld's reserve currency, hit a record $11 trn."

- 華為採用國170，禁用國一打 "America has led a three-year campaign against Huawei, a firm it accused of spying. Of the 170 countries that use its products, only a dozen or so have banned it.  Meanwhile, the number of Chinese tech firms worth over $50bn has risen from seven to 15."

-脫鉤困難  "If the West  seeks "a full disengagement with China in an attempt to isolate it and force it to change track, the cost would be high.... Price would rise as western consumers are cut off from the world's factory. China makes 22% of global manufacturing exports. Western clusters that rely on China would face a shock: tech in America, cars in Germany, banking in Britain, luxury goods in France, and mining in Australia.  Banning China from using the dollar today would trigger a global financial crisis."

-孤立中國難 " ... if forced to take sides, many countries might choose China over the West. After all, China is the largest  goods trading partner of 64 countries, against just 38 for America. Instead of isolating China, America and its allies could end up isolating themselves."

-唯有交往 "Engagement with China is the only sensible course."

-二元整合 "China's rulers believe they have found a way to marry autocracy with technology, opacity with openness, and brutality with commercial predictability"