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十九大後北京對台新作為

accessed December 8, 2017

12月7日下午5點有媒體電話訪問我有關今日共軍軍機接近我防空識別區並嗆我戰機飛行員之事。
以下是在下所說:

1.19大之後,北京對台軟硬兩手持續并進。
2.軟硬兩手的方式種類各自都增加。
3.軟手特色是"操之在他"。硬手特色是"可否認性"。
4.軟的新方案包括
- 2020前福建省將招募2,000台灣教授/教員。
- 國際上陸商企業機會將與台商共享。
- 台灣首次赴陸旅客每人將得3,000人民幣資助。
5. 硬的包括
- 軍機繞台的新路線、參與戰機數字、繞台運 作新行為如語言。
- 邦交國的新狀況,如帛流、梵蒂岡、多明尼加?、海地?。
北京不會承認對台施壓之意圖。軍機繞台可說是例行演習不針對任何一方。外交運作可說是他方要求。但對台灣人民心理 壓力之效果是真實的。
6. 這些軟硬作為之目的何在? 北京不會說。看來是逐漸轉變台灣多數的民意。
7. 其意涵是: 習近平認為對台北政府施壓或施惠效果有限。這是總結江澤民、胡錦濤多年對台政策成效的評估。因此,或許更有效的是直接對台灣人民的軟硬兩手的作為,希望由轉變台灣多數民意,影響台北政府。最近台灣本土媒體之微妙向現實主義的調整或許讓北京覺得其新對台做為值得持續施行。
8. 習近平其他對台的作為是間接的:轉變東亞原親美各國微調傾向北京,以及與美合作超過矛盾,限制華府挺台之程度。

以上淺見,敬請賜教。
林中斌 2017.12.7 (2017.12.8增修)

 

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本土言論新趨勢

accessed November 23, 2017

2017.11.22《自由時報》重要的第二版(A2)社論,出現以往沒有的言論:
●對本土執政的困境不掩飾
●對台灣一向自傲的民主自由不樂觀
●對台灣人認同衰退的民調不否認
這社論延續過去數周《自由時報》言論及報導的新趨勢。

以下為社論中的文句:
●「民主老大哥卻對專制老大哥推崇備至,連外孫女也成為討好天朝的表演者。」
●「過去西方國家所主導,講的是民主自由人權;如今中國經濟崛起,主題變成市場與工廠。」
●「本國的民主自由人權,無助於企業對外開拓」
●「當台灣人民以融入普世價值為榮之際,先進國家卻已琵琶別抱中國的市場與工廠,連台灣的商界也有人宣稱民主不能當飯吃。」
●「所謂的窮台政策不可忽視;而本土政權執政,台灣人認同反顯衰退,赴中就業則成統戰重點。歷史走到這一步,嚴厲考驗似乎才要開始」
敬請卓參。

 

 

《自由時報社論》世界最大的民主國家?
2017-11-22 06:00下載2017.11.23
http://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1153891 

中共機關報「求是」稱:「中國才是世界最大的民主國家」。這樣的一個命題,很多人聽起來都覺得非常刺耳。不過,此話在中國被堂堂皇皇講出來,也不能簡簡單單地當笑話看,相反地,大家不妨透過此一現象深入解讀,到底世界範圍內的民主發生了什麼變化,以至於一個建國以來便打壓民主不遺餘力的政權,竟然在此時此刻出現「中國才是世界最大的民主國家」的「中國強話語」?


首先,此一「中國強話語」出現在川普訪中之後。習近平在紫禁城待客,至少表面上是賓主盡歡,川普甚至還讚美東道主是個「令人尊敬且強而有力的人民代表」。事實上,這位東道主才折磨死一位諾貝爾和平獎得主,而且對民運、維權毫不手軟,甚乃對周邊國家不斷秀肌肉。儘管如此,民主老大哥卻對專制老大哥推崇備至,連外孫女也成為討好天朝的表演者。國際體制,過去西方國家所主導,講的是民主自由人權;如今中國經濟崛起,主題變成市場與工廠。西方的民主國家,面對東方的開發獨裁國家,已少有領導人願意為抽象的普世價值,犧牲本國的具體經濟利益。於是,中國有市場與工廠,西方國家的領導人也就紛紛從政治人轉型成生意人了。政治人加上生意人的複合角色,川普與習近平的交往模式開創了東西國家的互動新模式,豈偶然哉?


事實上,這位東道主(習近平)才折磨死一位諾貝爾和平獎得主(劉曉波),而且對民運、維權毫不手軟,甚乃對周邊國家不斷秀肌肉。(美聯社)


問題的濫觴,其實不在川普,也不在現任的西方領導人,而是全球化的跨世紀轉變。鄧小平啟動的經濟改革,恰好銜接西方國家的全球化浪潮,原本西方對中國的盤算放在,打開竹幕的市場與工廠,進而促使和平演變,最後以資本主義的勝利作為劇終,一如蘇東波共產政權垮台。但這樣的盤算,很快就證明是西方的誤判。一九八九,天安門屠殺,西方對中國的經濟制裁,在爾虞我詐之下其實是光說不練。蘇東波,西方國家看到勝利的捷報;然而,當時中國的「有識之士」便決定不能步其後塵。這批人主要是當年的太子黨,也就是中共革命元老的政軍經二代。而習近平,正好是這樣的政軍經二代,豈偶然哉?


全球化行進至今,已出現不以設計者的意志為轉移的景觀,那就是,跨國企業變成沒有邊界的國家,他們可以跟民主的、專制的、野蠻的政府密切合作,獲得最大的商業擴張,從而回過頭來影響本國的政策。於是,本國的民主自由人權,無助於企業對外開拓,他們卻有辦法阻止本國政府干涉他國政治迫害。以故,新興國家的經濟無法拉動民主,例如中國經濟快速崛起,民主自由人權卻進入史無前例的黑暗期。北京,成為做生意的空間,而不是談普世價值的場域。習近平,所到之處不會受到干涉內政的尷尬,反而處處受到經貿與商業合作的探尋。市場、工廠、特許,取代了民主、自由、人權。這就是「中國強話語」的背景,不是嗎?


不論好惡,這是一個新的世界變局。半個世紀以來,台灣在西方國家的普世價值要求下,逐步走向今天的民主自由人權國度。令人遺憾的是,當台灣人民以融入普世價值為榮之際,先進國家卻已琵琶別抱中國的市場與工廠,連台灣的商界也有人宣稱民主不能當飯吃。也許,這是西方金融資本主義的自我反噬,經濟與金融危機層出不窮,貪婪資本主義搞得勞民傷財,從而賦予中國這種極大規模的開發獨裁新的價值。「中國才是世界最大的民主國家」,Money talks


而這,為台灣帶來了新挑戰。台灣要維護主權獨立現狀,要維護民主自由人權,要經濟成長與國際經貿,全球化也不可完全沒有中國這塊拼圖,這些內涵互相衝突的價值與行動,造成了近年來台灣的民主躁動,離中國太近也不安,離中國太遠也不利。在這樣的情況下,台灣的民主會產生什麼實踐動態?台灣對外簽署貿易協定,頻遭中國從中作梗,自由市場原則走樣,所謂的窮台政策不可忽視;而本土政權執政,台灣人認同反顯衰退,赴中就業則成統戰重點。歷史走到這一步,嚴厲考驗似乎才要開始;時代正在考驗台灣的執政者,台灣的執政者能創造新的時代嗎?

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學習曲線正加速發展

accessed November 20, 2017

-- 急獨緩獨一年來少了7%。這是2017.11.20 聯合報發表的最新民調。

-- 這是"藍色偏見"嗎?若注意到蔡總統9/24正視中國崛起的發言,和自由時報最近出現前所未見的社論、報導、和言論,恐怕很難如此判定。

--自從9/24蔡總統公開以民進黨領袖身份呼籲正視"中國的崛起", 台灣人民對去年520後我政府兩岸政策的走向連續表達之前未見的看法。

-- 自由時報 已有三篇令人耳目一新的社論、報導、及評論。 (更冷血現實的看兩岸實力的對比、看兩岸國際力量的對比、有勇氣表達台獨無望論)

-- 這就是趨勢發展的"潛流" 和"轉棙點"。

林中斌 2017.11.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

●2017.9.24蔡總統:
「中國的崛起,是現在全世界所有國家,都必須謹慎面對的趨勢,情緒式的仇恨,或者一味地討好,都無法誠實正視中國的崛起和發展。」

●2017.10.28社論 自由時報A2:
「台灣的頭家也要自問:堅持台灣主權獨立國家,遭到中國以蠻力無情欺壓,而導致國家尊嚴受挫、國計民生連帶受損,大家願意概括承受那些窮台力道嗎?」

●2017.11.5鍾麗華/台北報導,自由時報 A2:
「政府高層透露...雖說現在多明尼加是穩住了,但也是暫時的,'老實說,如果對方出重手,我們根本沒辦法。」

●2017.11.5 李中志/美國伊利諾州立大學教授、北美台灣人教授協會會長,自由時報 A14:
「民調也顯示,純粹的台灣人認同自二○一四達到高點以來,三年之間已掉了四%,而雙重認同則增加了四%,這不是警訊嗎?
我們也許能看到加泰隆尼亞獨立運動的無奈,但我們沒有看到自己,我們自認聰明高喊兩地不同,恐怕只是自我安慰。...如果漸漸地多數台灣人希望成為中國的自治區,那麼也只能這樣了。」

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跨越時空的巧合與喜悅

https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2017-12-06/106065

accessed December 5, 2017

● 廿八年前,我在美國智庫"美國企業研究院"任專任學者也在母校喬治城大學教書時,專書China's Nuclear Weaons Strategy 於1988年出版,紐約時報也登載我的評論 "China's Wild Nuclear Card"。"國家利益"雜誌邀稿,登載於1989年春季刊:Chong-Pin Lin,“From Panda to Dragon: China’s Nuclear Strategy,” National Interest 15 (Spring 1989), pp.49-57.

● 今天黃引珊的專文為"國家利益"雜誌轉載。非常欣慰喜悅。

林中斌 2017.12.5

 

 

致命弱點!陸若攻台海底電纜 恐擾亂國際金融市場

新頭殼newtalk | 中央社 台北市報導
發布 2017.12.06 | 00:38

美國「國家利益」雜誌刊文指出,海底電纜是台灣致命弱點,若遭中國大陸攻擊,將擾亂國際商業和金融市場,對日本、新加坡、印尼和澳洲造成嚴重經濟影響。

前國防部副部長林中斌特別助理黃引珊在「國家利益」(The National Interest)撰文表示,雖然海底電纜是支撐今日全球數據和語音通訊最關鍵的基礎設施,它們也出奇地脆弱。她指出,若台灣海峽發生衝突,海底電纜將成為中國主要攻擊目標,切斷電纜將癱瘓台灣的國際通訊,且損害範圍將不僅限於台灣。在台灣與亞太國家間,至少有10條國際海底電纜。攻擊台灣的電纜將擾亂國際商業和金融市場,對日本、新加坡、印尼和澳洲等區域國家造成嚴重經濟影響。

長期以來,中國的電纜策略對美國、台灣和亞太地區具有嚴肅的安全含意。中國正在建設的「海底長城」包括許多海底感測器,連接光纜到位於上海的中央處理與監控設施,將構成中國在南海海底觀測系統無可取代的一部分,可削弱美國在南海的海底軍事優勢。

2016年9月以來,中國電信集團以4G光纖電纜站,取代位於南沙群島永暑礁、渚碧礁和美濟礁的衛星站。光纖電纜傳輸速度遠較衛星系統快速及穩定。這項建設在海牙仲裁法庭一致做出,對中國在南海領土聲索不利的判決僅2個月後展開。這些光纖電纜站大幅強化中國對南海管轄和控制能力。

文章指出,美國和亞太盟邦應監控電纜線路安全,運用自動辨識系統精準定位損壞位置,也應建立多邊合作機制,以避免電纜維修延誤。這些努力某種程度上,將反擊中國正默默發展、可破壞這個地區的能力,也能避免台灣成為亞太海底電纜網絡最脆弱的一處。

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China’s cable strategy: exploring global undersea dominance

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-cable-strategy-exploring-global-undersea-dominance/

accessed December 4, 2017

This may be the only publication so far that observes a hitherto largely ignored but potentially important topic on East Asian security.
這是目前就我所知唯一的討論解放軍海底光纖戰略對東亞安全影響的專文。內容紮實,引人深省。

林中斌 2017.12.4

I am honored by my association with the author Eli Huang, and believe that more shall be so in the future.

Chong-Pin Lin December 4, 2017

China’s cable strategy: exploring global undersea dominance

4 Dec 2017|Eli Huang

Since September 2016, China Telecom has replaced satellite stations on Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands with 4G fibre-optic cable stations. Fibre-optic cables are much faster and much more stable than satellite systems. Installation began just two months after an arbitral tribunal in the Hague unanimously found against Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. The stations significantly strengthen China’s command and control capabilities in the South China Sea. Over the longer term, China’s cable strategy holds serious security implications for the US, Taiwan and the Asia–Pacific community.

Undersea fibre-optic cable is the backbone of data transmission and intercontinental communications. A cable can transmit the equivalent of the entire printed collection of the Library of Congress in about 20 seconds. In 2014, roughly 98% of emails, telephone calls and internet traffic travelled through underwater cables.

The Chinese military, along with the Ministry of Information Industry, has concentrated on developing its submarine cable technology since the 1990s. In 2002, the PLA used a self-developed undersea cable-laying system for the first time. It deployed its first optical cable-laying ship in 2015. And last year, the PLA Naval University of Engineering, Hengton Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology Submarine Cables and Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications co-established the Joint Lab of Underwater Optical Networks, a science and engineering research facility.

Although undersea cables are the most critical infrastructure supporting today’s global data and voice communications, they’re surprisingly vulnerable. In general, cables have only a thin rubber sheath. Shipping and fishing activities are the most common sources of damage. China has taken steps to protect its submarine cables and conducts regular patrols. It has also imposed special submarine cable protection measures during major international events, such as the Expo Shanghai in 2010 and the Belt and Road Summit in May 2017, to prevent propaganda channels, live streams and international calls from being disrupted.

China’s cable industry has rapidly transformed itself. It used to rely heavily on imports, but today it competes strongly in international markets. In 2011, for example, Huawei Marine Networks constructed a 1,200 kilometre ultralong non-repeater cable system that connects five islands of Indonesia’s eastern archipelago. Between 2012 and 2015, Chinese companies’ market share of global cable projects was only 7%; that figure is projected to increase to 20% by 2019. Chinese companies currently lag behind only France’s Alcatel-Lucent and Switzerland’s TE Connectivity in the sector.

China sees cable networks as an essential element of its One Belt, One Road initiative. Undersea cables will ensure that Beijing is well placed to influence media and psychological operations as part of its ‘three warfares’ strategy. In the military arena, such a cable network creates a strategic advantage in anti-submarine warfare for the Chinese navy. It will form an irreplaceable part of China’s underwater observation system in the South China Sea. This ‘underwater great wall’ includes a number of subsurface sensors connected through optical cables to a central processing and monitoring facility in Shanghai. The system will function much like America’s SOSUS network, which employs fixed sensor arrays to detect Soviet submarines. A Chinese system could erode American undersea warfare advantages in the South China Sea.

Undersea cables have been described as Taiwan’s Achilles’ heel. In the event of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait, the cables will be prime Chinese targets: cutting them will cripple Taiwan’s international communications. And the damage wouldn’t be confined to Taiwan. There are at least 10 international submarine cables between Taiwan and Asia–Pacific countries. Damaging Taiwan’s cables would disrupt international business and financial markets, leading to severe economic effects on regional countries, including Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and Australia.

Articles 113 to 115 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea address the rights and obligations of states to adopt laws and regulations to protect submarine cables on the high seas.  Australia has established the world’s most advanced cable protection regime. It passed the Cable Protection Bill in 2005 and was the first state to join the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC). It’s also one of the few countries working with regional states amid security concerns about Chinese cable companies. Those actions demonstrate that Canberra could play a leading role in promoting regional cable protection. It could, for example, encourage Asia–Pacific countries to cooperate fully with the ICPC to focus international attention on cable security and to make China’s undersea monitoring in the South China Sea harder.

The US and its Asia–Pacific partners should also monitor the security of cable routes, using the automatic identification system to pinpoint the location of faults. And they should establish multilateral cooperation mechanisms to avoid delays to cable repairs. Such efforts would go some way to countering yet another area in which China is quietly developing a capability that could disrupt the region, and prevent Taiwan from being the weakest point in the Asia–Pacific submarine cable network.

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Sunset of the first sunny day in weeks

accessed November 28, 2017

Sunset of the first sunny day in weeks.
Hsintien (Xindian) Taipei, 17:15 November 28, 2017

Chong-Pin Lin

日落,江波華城
數周來首次晴天
2017年11月28日 下午5點一刻

林中斌

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China’s Singles Day is a shopping extravaganza heard around the world

By Alan Murray

accessed December 4, 2017

2017年12月4日時代雜誌引述Alan Murray, President of Fortune:

● "阿里巴巴的行動支付遠比西方任何類似系統還要複雜,也是反駁有人說中國科技創新落後西方最好的實證。"
(The event demonstrates the growing power of Alibaba's mobile payment system, Alipay, which is far more sophisticated than anything similar in the West and is the leading counter to the notion that China lags the U.S. ininnovaton.")

●"十一月十一日光棍節,阿里巴巴24小時營業額是250億美元,遠超過美國Black Friday Cyber Monday營業額的總和。"

●"十一月十一日在中國交易額1,680億人民幣,比去年上升39%,超過冰島一年的GDP"

 

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跨越專注國內政治的媒體

accessed November 26, 2017

- 自由時報花一整版涵蓋國際新聞及科學新聞。此現象已有數年。

- 由只關心本土草根議題媒體發展至今,實屬不易。

- 反諷的是原先以國際新聞為強項的媒體至今卻淪落至糾纏國內恩怨的擂台。

- 世事無常。歷史就是如此演變的。

 

 

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美國海軍擴建陷入困境

Accessed November 25, 2017

█2017年10月23日《國防新聞》報導:川普競選時所說要擴建海軍由原計劃的272艘軍艦到355艘。此355艘目標目前看來只是"口惠實不至("so far all talk and no action”)。最主要的原因是: 經費從何而來? 沒有著落。此外,此355艘軍艦海軍目的何在? 又,此355艘軍艦圖像為何?也不清楚!!
"The U.S. Navy ...can't say what the fleet will look like or how it's going to be paid for. "
“…Trump’s naval buildup aspirations must overcome a seeming lack of coherent vision of what a bigger Navy means or how it’s going to be paid for”
“The defense appropriations bill …is stalled in the Senate”
“Defense Secretary Jim Mattis …has told Congress that he isn’t going to rob the other services to ..pay for a larger fleet. Any substantial increase in the size of the fleet is contingent on a 3 to 5 percent annual budget growth, which would be impossible under the current Budget Control Act”


█2016年12月6日,幾乎一年以前,在下於《聯合報》名人堂拙文〈川普願景 有虛有實〉已點出目前美國國防預算的困境。全文附上於後,以下為摘錄片段,敬請賜教。
●"而十月下旬,仍在競選的川普,說當選後將要建造一個「三百五十軍艦的海軍」。美國海軍現有兩百七十二艘軍艦。每年花四十五億美元,卅年後,可有三百零八艘軍艦。如果要達到三五○艘,每年還要多花四億美元。那還不包括武器、人員、維修等費用。錢從哪來?”

●“川普說:要裁撤國防部裡重疊的機構,結束聯邦政府無必要的計畫,徵收未繳的稅款。某超黨派委員會CRFB算過,如此節省的錢只夠填補三分之二目前每年已被裁減的國防經費,四千五百億美元,勉強回到以往的國防開銷。這還不算額外的擴軍經費。
美國的GDP在二○一五年是十七點九兆美元。
美國的目前國家負債已達十九點八兆美元。美國負債已超過收入了。"

林中斌 2017.11.25
Chong-Pin Lin November 25, 2017

 

 

川普願景 有虛有實

林中斌
名人堂稿件
20161206 本文字數: 1100 目標字數:1100

「美國第一!」川普願景振奮人心。
「川普對外加強國防,對內提升經濟,孰先孰後?」我問川普交結團隊中的朋友。
「都先!」他回答。
魚與熊掌兩者得兼!可能嗎?請看美國國防現況。

川普十一月九日當選總統後兩週,美國最先進的驅逐艦Zumwalt在巴拿馬運河因漏水而拋錨。花了四十四億美元打造,十月才下水,它已故障過一次。

目前在波斯灣巡邏的美國艾森豪號航空母艦,原計劃明年一月在七個月海外執行任務後,回美國母港維修,換布希號航母上陣。但布希號原訂六個月維修,現需十三個月。美軍波灣部署出現空檔!因經費短缺,人員不足。

今年七月,美國宣佈:最先進的航空母艦福特號,經歷七年建造,原訂今年九月服役,因為戰機尚無法起降,再度延期到二○一七年。其實服役時間,一四年已延過一次。它耗資一百卅億美元,打破歷史紀錄,預算也追加過廿三億美元。

十一月底,美國之音報導,美國空軍戰機飛行訓練時數短缺,戰力滑退。因維修人員不足。二○一五年最嚴重,達三千八百人。 現在添了五百,仍缺三千三。

今年八月初, 美國F-35戰鬥機,耗時十五年,花費四千億美元後,終於宣佈成軍。這是人類歷史上最昂貴的武器計畫,原定研發建造十年,花費兩千三百億美元。但是,九月中,因為隔熱材料破碎剝落,已出廠的十五架F-35中十架被停飛。

而十月下旬,仍在競選的川普,說當選後將要建造一個「三百五十軍艦的海軍」。美國海軍現有兩百七十二艘軍艦。每年花四十五億美元,卅年後,可有三百零八艘軍艦。如果要達到三五○艘,每年還要多花四億美元。那還不包括武器、人員、維修等費用。此外,在九月初,他說:海軍陸戰隊要從從廿四營增加到卅六營。陸軍從五十四萬人增加到六十五萬。空軍將增加一千兩百架戰鬥機。

錢從哪來?

川普說:要裁撤國防部裡重疊的機構,結束聯邦政府無必要的計畫,徵收未繳的稅款。某超黨派委員會CRFB算過,如此節省的錢只夠填補三分之二目前每年已被裁減的國防經費,四千五百億美元,勉強回到以往的國防開銷。這還不算額外的擴軍經費。

美國的GDP在二○一五年是十七點九兆美元。

美國的目前國家負債已達十九點八兆美元。美國負債已超過收入了。明年三月,美國政府將面臨自己制定的負債上限廿點一兆美元。還有餘力增加國防預算嗎?

川普競選時許諾:十年增加兩千五百萬國內工作機會。如果沒有創造數百萬新工作,四年後別想連任。在他內心,提升經濟絕對高於加強國防。

為何他競選時描繪出擴軍的遠景呢? 

因為只強調國內經濟,選民會質疑「難道美國衰退了嗎?」

川普對外以打擊中東ISIS為主,因為它威脅國內安全。因此他任命兇悍將領為國防部長和中情局局長。

本來美國重返東亞的前提就是○九年二月宣布從中東撤軍。但現在中東更亂,美脫身不得。美國將無餘力在東亞與中國軍力較勁。

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長

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舍弟林中明書法分享

舍弟林中明書法分享。

林中斌 2017.11.19

My brother, Frank Chong-Ming Lin, composed a poem and did the calligraphy on it in praise of seven senior poet-calligraphers who jointly held an exhibition on the occasion of "festival of respecting seniors" on the ninth day of the ninth moon.

Chong-Pin Lin November 20, 2017

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自由時報在調整嗎?

accessed November 6, 2017

"我們也許能看到加泰隆尼亞獨立運動的無奈,但我們沒有看到自己,我們自認聰明高喊兩地不同,恐怕只是自我安慰。...如果漸漸地多數台灣人希望成為中國的自治區,那麼也只能這樣了。"(李中志/美國伊利諾州立大學教授、北美台灣人教授協會會長,自由時報 2017.11.6 A14)
"政府高層透露...雖說現在多明尼加是穩住了,但也是暫時的,'老實說,如果對方出重手,我們根本沒辦法。'" (鍾麗華/台北報導,自由時報 2017.11.5 A2)
以上兩段摘錄自 連續兩天的自由時報 言論版及第二版。如此"台獨悲觀"論,及"長他人威風,滅自己志氣"的言論,似乎以前沒有出現於自由時報。

林中斌2017.11.6

 

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習近平對台灣的「文鬥」

2017/10/28 自由時報

http://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1147062

●這篇社論出現自由時報以往未見或少見的論調:對於中國實力上昇重視而非以「中國遲早經濟下滑或內亂,不足以懼」

●社論說:「台灣的頭家也要自問:堅持台灣主權獨立國家,遭到中國以蠻力無情欺壓,而導致國家尊嚴受挫、國計民生連帶受損,大家願意概括承受那些窮台力道嗎?」

林中斌 2017.10.28
 

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習近平找回傳統文化 有助兩岸對話

2017/10/26 大紀元 郭曜榮

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/09/2003679993

傳統文化有助兩岸對話是袁易教授說的,不是在下說的。

在下側重習近平用傳統文化穩定社會,以及全家的佛緣(記者引述拙作"撥雲見日"。)

林中斌 2017.10.26

 

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美國中國專家預判十九大報告提統一時間表並對台強硬

US China experts predicted a unification timetable and tougher measures on Taiwan in Xi Jinping's 19 Party Congress political report

2017/9/1 旺報 劉永祥

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170901000698-260309

accessed Sep 1, 2017

Tsai stance on PRC policy expected later

Chung Li-hua, Taipei Times, October 9, 2017

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/09/2003679993

accessed Oct 23, 2017

十九大及十八大港澳台政治報告

●2017年 10月9日,前美國在台協會的主席,美國資深兩岸問題專家 卜睿哲(Richard Bush)博士預言: "19大召開時,習近平將會提出解決台灣問題的期限"。

9天後,習近平的19大政治報告出爐,他有提出解決台灣問題的期限嗎?

●2017年9月1日,美國前中情局中國事務專家張克斯 (Christopher Johnson) 說習近平對蔡英文政府不信任,而且"永遠也不會"。十九大後習近平固權, 會對台更為強硬。習近平的19大政治報告出爐,除了對反獨更為周全 (六個任何)以外,沒有武統,也沒有其他強硬說詞。倒是"骨肉親情、血濃於水" "與大陸同胞同等待遇" "分享大陸發展機遇"等說了一些。

●十九大及十八大政治報告中港澳台部分的文字附在下面,請參考。

林中斌 2017.10,23

●On October 9, 2017 "....former American Institute in Taiwan chairman Richard Bush’s prediction that China would introduce a deadline for a resolution on Taiwan during the congress."

On October 18, in the 19th Party Congress political report, did Xi Jinping mention " a deadline for a resolution on Taiwan"?

●On September 1, 2017,former CIA China affairs expert Christopher Johnson, predicted that Xi would turn harder on Taiwan after the 19th Party Congress.

Quoted by Chong-Pin Lin October 23, 2017
 

 

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牛津大學80歲佛學教授的心得

● 以下是牛津大學八十歲教授研究巴利文及佛經後所說。

如:當我說我是佛教徒時:不是說,以愛的發心绑架他人!而是為了用周到的智慧,在隨顺眾生中自利利他

林中斌 2017.10.21

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As U.S. Confronts Internet’s Disruptions, China Feels Vindicated

Steven Lee Myers and Sui-Lee Wee The New York Times, October 16, 2017

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/16/world/asia/china-internet-cyber-control.html

accessed October 19, 2017

紐約時報報導(不是人民日報報導):
美國現在束手無策。面對假新聞、駭客、外國滲透網路干擾選舉(指俄羅斯),不知如何應付。
中國一向嚴格控制網路,還被西方指責。 它現在覺得雪冤了。
紐約時報,自由派大報,以前是批評中國言論不自由最力的媒體。 現在怎麼啦?
1. 被北京買了?
2.
觀察到以前沒注意的角度?
3.
其他.....

林中斌 試節譯 2017.10.19



HULUNBUIR, China — In the United States, some of the world’s most powerful technology companies face rising pressure to do more to fight false information and stop foreign infiltration.

China, however, has watchdogs like Zhao Jinxu.

From his small town on the windswept grasslands of the Inner Mongolia region of China, Mr. Zhao, 27, scours the internet for fake news, pornography and calls to violence. He is one of a battalion of online “supervisors” whom Weibo, one of China’s biggest social media platforms, announced last month it would hire to help enforce China’s stringent limits on online content.

For years, the United States and others saw this sort of heavy-handed censorship as a sign of political vulnerability and a barrier to China’s economic development. But as countries in the West discuss potential internet restrictions and wring their hands over fake news, hacking and foreign meddling, some in China see a powerful affirmation of the country’s vision for the internet.

“This kind of thing would not happen here,” Mr. Zhao said of the controversy over Russia’s influence in the American presidential election last year.

Besides Communist Party loyalists, few would argue that China’s internet control serves as a model for democratic societies. China squelches online dissent and imprisons many of those who practice it. It blocks foreign news and information, including the website of The New York Times, and promotes homegrown technology companies while banning global services like Facebook and Twitter.

At the same time, China anticipated many of the questions now flummoxing governments from the United States to Germany to Indonesia. Where the Russians have turned the internet into a political weapon, China has used it as a shield.

In fact, when it comes to technology, China has prospered. It has a booming technology culture. Its internet companies rival Facebook and Amazon in heft. To other countries, China may offer an enticing top-down model that suggests that technology can thrive even under the government’s thumb.

 

 

“It doesn’t matter how efficient the internet is,” said Zhu Wei, deputy director of the Communications Law Research Center at the China University of Political Science and Law, which advises the government on internet laws. “It won’t work without security.”

China is not resting on its laurels.

In the weeks leading up to the major party congress that opens in Beijing on Wednesday, the country’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has issued a raft of new regulations.

One, which took effect last week, holds the creators of online forums or group chats responsible for their users’ comments.

Another bans anonymous users, a blow at the bots and deceptive accounts — like those on Facebook and Twitter — that distributed false stories aimed at American voters.

“If our party cannot traverse the hurdle presented by the internet, it cannot traverse the hurdle of remaining in power,” a department of the cyberspace administration wrote in a top party journal last month.

The article was in keeping with President Xi Jinping’s early recognition of the power of the internet. Mr. Xi created and empowered the cyberspace administration, which has subsumed many of the overlapping agencies that once governed content in cyberspace.

The administration is now seen as an institution as important as the defense ministry. Since last year, it has been led by Xu Lin, 54, a party technocrat and former propaganda official, who, like other influential officials who previously worked beside Mr. Xi in Shanghai, has soared through the ranks.

Samm Sacks, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the cyberspace administration was a core part of Mr. Xi’s vow to make China a cyber superpower, on par with the United States.

“There’s a recognition that technology has advanced more quickly than the government’s ability to control it,” Ms. Sacks said. Russia’s interference with Facebook, to cite only one example, was “justification for exactly what they are doing here.”

China’s homegrown internet companies are key to its top-down approach. Tech firms are expected to keep content on file for 60 days and report to the police any forbidden content. The government is acquiring small equity stakes in some tech companies in exchange for board seats, giving it a direct role in the governance of new internet titans.

The tech firms also face tight penalties if they fail to keep users in line. In September, the cybersecurity administration imposed fines on social media platforms owned wholly or in part by three of China’s biggest internet companies — Tencent Holdings, the Alibaba Group and Baidu — for failing to stop the circulation of fabricated rumors, violence and pornography. (Companies can be fined up to $76,000 per offense, and have their business licenses canceled, if they cannot prevent the transmission of banned content.)

Human rights observers worry that the crackdown may have a chilling effect on political speech that is already tightly curbed. Last month, for example, the police raided the home of a university professor, Liu Pengfei, who had hosted a current-affairs forum on Tencent’s WeChat software, one of the world’s most popular messaging apps.

In exchange for accepting tight controls, China internet companies have been allowed to grow while their foreign rivals were shut out of the country. They can now claim their own technology successes. Tencent’s WeChat has transformed social life in China: People use it to chat, pay bills, transfer money, book cabs and hook up romantically.

China is now embarking on an ambitious project to dominate fields like artificial intelligence, and some say China could be at an advantage. It has more than 700 million internet users, and it doesn’t have a robust legal framework to deal with data privacy intrusions. That makes it easier for companies to harness user data — which is core to developing A.I. technology.

Still, China’s advantage could be double-edged. Chinese internet companies have struggled to expand abroad, which experts say stems in part from their dependence on their government.

“To a large extent, the competitive advantage is the political relationship they have with the government there and that’s not something you can carry across borders,” said Lokman Tsui, an assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Moreover, not all of the new restrictions have been welcomed here. Some of the companies — and internet users — balked at tightened enforcement of rules requiring users of social media platforms to provide their real identities to the companies (although they may still use online pseudonyms). Weibo’s announcement that it was seeking 1,000 recruits to become supervisors to report illegal content online — the definitions of which can be expansive — was met by derision on its own site.

“Online and offline, Big Brother is watching,” wrote one user, who used the handle mingxinjianxing.

But when it comes to the controversy over Russia’s intervention, there has been little discussion here. Among the few who are discussing it on Weibo, some expressed shock that the United States does not censor information shared on social media platforms.

Mr. Zhao, the young volunteer on Weibo, is typical of those here who believe government control is justified.

In a restaurant called Europa, Mr. Zhao — who declined to disclose details of where and how he works — described China’s system not as “Big Brother” so much as a younger brother, which he is, protecting children, like those of his sister, from harmful material.

“Even though the internet is virtual, it is still part of society,” he added. “So in any space I feel no one should create pornographic, illegal or violent posts.”

In his new capacity, he scours Weibo in search of the lurid and illicit. Some posts, he explained, are thinly veiled solicitations for pornography or prostitution, including one message he reported to the police the other day for using what he said was a euphemism for selling sex.

When he reports abuse, it is the police who follow up. He excitedly displayed his smartphone to show the latest of his more than 3,000 followers on Weibo: the division of the Beijing police that monitors the internet.

“Normally, if you don’t do bad things, you don’t get followed by the police,” he said. “I think this — for someone who has been online for so many years — is really special.”

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中國為啥不打?真相終於曝光!舉國沸騰!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX6XbsHXlCo&feature=share

accessed October 15, 2017

 

為何不會打台灣?
為何中日不會不免一戰?
為何中美打不起來?
為何一帶一路走得通?
為何蔡習會有可能?

敬請卓參。

林中斌 2017.10.15

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義救恩師的普丁

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxngs6BmQ9s&app=desktop

accessed October 14, 2017

原來如此!!!
普丁在俄羅斯石油危機經濟拮据下仍獲85%以上人民支持(西方在俄羅斯內所做之民調)
對國家領袖也是自己老闆的忠,與對過去恩師的義,而兩人是政敵,如何兩全
普丁曾不惜自己性命及政治前途義救恩師。
今日世界寡情的政治人物中居然有這號人物!!!
內容精彩,電影情節。
鄭重推薦!!!!
感謝林中明提供。

林中斌 2017.10.14

 

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Birds Beware: The praying Mantis Wants Your Brain

Natalie Angier, New York Times September 22, 2017

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/science/praying-mantis-eating-birds.html?mwrsm=Facebook

accessed September 23, 2017

螳螂吃蜂鳥

螳螂吃蜂鳥!!

也吃更大的鳥!
科學家已收集了147個實例,遍佈6大洲,只差南極洲。
其中有兩例是母螳螂在交配時吃鳥!!
母螳螂食量巨大,因為要攝取足夠蛋白質製造螳螂卵。她身體一半重量都是卵,多達400個。
當蛋白攝取不足時,交配完就把老公下肚。如此可轉化為60新卵,或增加20%卵。
螳螂是唯一頭可以轉動的昆蟲,也是眼睛是3-D 的昆蟲。

林中斌摘譯 2017.9.29

 

 

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西裝外套這顆扣子千萬別扣!男人不該犯的10項西裝迷思

http://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/76611

accessed September 27, 2017

 

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