目前分類:各色評論/newspaper commentaries (441)

瀏覽方式: 標題列表 簡短摘要

"The Taliban's teenage assassin"

New York Time Nov 6, 2018 p.1&4

accessed Nov 12, 2018

●美軍駐阿富汗上將米勒1031日公開宣稱「我們無法以軍事擊垮神學士。」。

1018他險遭十幾歲神學士殺手擊斃,顯然是他承認軍事失敗并呼籲華府和談的主要原因。

●神學士居然能滲透進入省長官邸成為貼身衛士,並在關鍵時刻轟斃省長警察首長,幾乎射殺米勒上將,所引起之心理震撼遠超過美軍以往扔下的巨型炸彈。

全文網址-https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/world/asia/taliban-attack-raziq-alliance.html?fbclid=IwAR1MMKA2YIP79q4oAjAF14pbX7E7ZwMt9293BfAIbJ7Wt0wsieRzP3qzKmw

 

20181106 Teenage attacker disrusots U.S.-Afghan trust-Picture.jpg

20181106 Teenage attacker disrusots U.S.-Afghan trust.1+2 OK.jpg

20181106 The Taliban%5Cs teenage assassin PP.1.4.OK.jpg

 

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Stockmarkets Red October"

The Economist Nov 3, 2018 p.14&16

accessed Nov 12, 2018

●美國強勢的股市在今年十月開始下滑。

●是否美國有史以來最長的經濟復甦將結束?有待觀察。

●川普賴以號令群雄的國內經濟榮景是否逐漸暗淡,值得關注。

●《經濟學人》認為,被美國發動的中美貿易戰拖下的全球經濟要靠中國,不是美國的經濟回昇拯救。

●中國已經實施各種新措施,包括減稅,拉拔它的經濟。

20181103 Red Octber p.14+16 OK.jpg

20181103 Red Octber-graph. OK.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Keep your friends close"

The Economist Oct 27, 2018 p.7,8

accessed Nov 5, 2018

●“澳洲人民對於川普的信任少於對習近平的信任。““42%澳洲人認為川普是‘嚴重威脅’只有36%認為中國是如此。“

2017

中國公司共投資澳洲390億美元

美國公司只投資澳洲260億美元

 

全文網址-

https://blendle.com/i/the-economist/keep-your-friends-close/bnl-economist-20181026-adf2f70543e/acquire?fbclid=IwAR1csuQkI2DDYEPQDOsSwo9gCYYwsQFyFonEKCtky18SE66rcBbUUKgGarA

 

20181027 Keep your friends close-1.jpg

20181027 Keep your friends close-2.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Well under way"

The Economist Oct 27, 2018 p.81

accessed Nov 5, 2018

●世界經濟重心以各國經緯度乘以各國GDP計算。世界經濟重心在西元一世紀時接近中國和印度。20世紀接近美國。今日又再一度轉向中國。

●中國清除貧窮人口以及專利申請之成長都超過預期。

 

20181027 Well under way.jpg

20181027 Well under way- chart.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Amid plenty,want"

The Economist Oct 27, 2018 p.33-34

accessed Nov 5, 2018

 

●加州是美國最富有的州,但它的貧窮率也是最高的。

●若把加州當成國家,它是全球第五大經濟體,超過英國。但它的最富有的10%收入是它最貧窮10%收入之14倍。

 

全文網址-

https://blendle.com/i/the-economist/amid-plenty-want/bnl-economist-20181026-c4673325dd3?fbclid=IwAR3cIcuPgWdBokC2Ovl7xrdQeypYYo2zweDOsYDFqEfao4qPGISGVEPs2iw&sharer=eyJ2ZXJzaW9uIjoiMSIsInVpZCI6ImNob25ncGlubGluIiwiaXRlbV9pZCI6ImJubC1lY29ub21pc3QtMjAxODEwMjYtYzQ2NzMzMjVkZDMifQ%3D%3D

 

20181027 Poverty in Calafornia-1.jpg

20181027 Poverty in Calafornia-2.jpg

20181027 Poverty in Calafornia- chart.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

" Why today’s troops fear a new war is coming soon "

Military Times Oct 17, 2018

accessed Nov 5, 2018


 

46%被詢問的美軍相信一年內美國將要捲入一場新的戰爭。而20179月,只有5%美軍如此認為。
Military Times 在美軍中意見調查顯示,美軍對川普總統支持下降,而美軍高度支持國防部長Jim Mattis,並希望它能拉住川普總統不要打仗。

全文網址-

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2018/10/16/why-todays-troops-fear-a-new-war-is-coming-soon/?fbclid=IwAR0W28K4I-PE0czwbP01pusgommnxKAMue9pQD8FM2CfhXH4wnVIoHQy6y0

 

2.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

“瀋陽街遇事件的一堂課”

《亞洲週刊》2018.11.4 p.29-30

accessed Nov 4, 2018

 

●龍應台在瀋陽目擊事件改變她的看法。

 

20181104 瀋陽街遇事件的一堂課.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

【耗時17載】年燒450億美元 

美軍上將:我們無法擊垮阿富汗神學士

accessed Nov 3, 2018


LINETODAY:

https://today.line.me/TW/pc/article/9ZVMw3?utm_source=lineshare&fbclid=IwAR2_Z8HyrpZvN64q_t7Jki2FucVQH0GtYz3_pcfMdhobJXTSKV4c5IhZXnw

 

1975西貢美國人狼狽撤退可能不久將要在Kabul 重演了。

 

1.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

" China's drive to erase Islam began at the top"

New York Times October 15, 2018

accessed October 22, 2018

 

●新疆嚴打回教傳統之政策在20144月習近平訪問新疆之後開始,他四天訪問結束後,隨即發生火車站爆炸。
 

●維族青年遠赴敘利亞參加內戰,帶回新疆作戰之經驗。

 

林中斌 試摘譯 敬請賜教 2018.10.22


 

20181015 China%5Cs drive to erase Islam began at the top.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Suburban men ‘feeling better’ about Trump "

New York Times October 16, 2018 p.6

accessed October 22, 2018

●美國大學畢業的白人女性支持民主黨比支持共和黨(川普)20%,旦大學畢業的白人男性是支持共和黨與川普的中堅份子。

●無大學學位的白人男性是川普的主要支持者,但只占33%,不夠。

●“He's tough, he's a bully , but boy things are getting done,”
“雖然他很魯莽、很極端,但他就是做到男人該做的事”,把經濟搞好,不管是他獲歐巴馬開始的。

●“I feel he's done a marvelous job......I can't stand his personality and behavior.”

“我覺得他完成了一個了不起的工作”,“我無法接受他的個性以及行為。”

林中斌 試摘譯 敬請賜教 2018.10.22

20181016 suburban men feeling better about Trump.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Republicans turn quiet as the U.S. deficit soars "

New York Times October 18, 2018 p.8

accessed October 22, 2018

 

●美國政府赤字由2017年的$666billion,上升至2018年的$779billion

2010年茶黨得勢,主要由於當時民主黨政府赤字上升,茶黨帶動了目前執政的共和黨的聲勢。

●目前共和黨不提赤字問題,只強調股票市場上升。

●連民主黨也不願提赤字問題,怕影響選舉。

●在下淺見:美國政府赤字是隱藏的定時炸彈,也是美國長期下去最大的隱憂。

 

林中斌 試摘譯 敬請賜教 2018.10.22

20181018 Republicans turn quiet as the US deficit soars.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

別低估川普

Time October 22, 2018 pp.24-26.

accessed October 22, 2018

 

--82%他的選民仍然支持他。

--"我並不喜歡我太太所做的每件事,但我仍愛她。"一位川普選民(如圖)如此描寫他對川普的看法。

--目前全國有43%選民支持他(在下附注:比剛當選時的36%高,也比我們最熟悉國家的領導人與川普同年當選的高很多)

--目前39%非兩黨的獨立選民支持他。

--目前有7%民主黨選民支持他。

時代雜誌 2018.10.22 pp.24-26

20181022 Beyond the base-1.jpg

20181022 Beyond the base-2.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

林中斌,〈以色列最大港交中國

《聯合報》 2018年10月16日 

accessed October 15, 2018

44085465_2129105680454170_4630004869988614144_o.jpg

 

名人堂稿件
日期:20181016 本文字數:1100 目標字數:1100

 

  九月十七日,以色列百年《國土報》 (Haaretz)爆料:國家最大的海法港將於二○廿一年交給擴建港口的中國公司SIPG經營廿五年。以國海軍潛艇基地,也同是美國第六艦隊的母港,就在旁邊。

  一五年底,瀕臨破產的斯里蘭卡以美元二點九二億的價錢把漢班托塔港交付給中國經營九十九年。西方譁然,控訴中國以「債務外交」對貧窮國家進行「新殖民主義」。

  以色列經濟穩健,過去五年GDP年增長平均為三點五二趴,高於美國的二點一二趴。若有人對以硬套中國用「債務外交」進行「新殖民主義」的說法,行得通嗎?

  爆料的來源是以國前海軍副司令Shaul Horev。場合是八月底在海法大學舉辦的國際研討會。與會的美國國防部及海軍官員說:「如果讓中國進入,貴國海軍便不要指望與第六艦隊仍保有緊密關係。」

  《國土報》並指出:一五年中國公司得標擴建海法港,隨即動工,預期五年完成,之後開始經營。一四年,中國另一公司亦得標擴建以南大港Ashdod,亦已動工。但是,這兩項計畫由以國交通部與港務局推動,並未徵詢國安會與海軍意見。

  巧的是,Ashdod 港旁亦有以國海軍基地。

  一五年六月二日,「天津市商務委員會」在以國首都特拉维夫以英文報導:以國商務部及情報部部長Yirael Katz與中方代表簽訂兩港口交中方擴建經營的計畫。經查詢,Katz部長至今不只仍為情報首長,且任「國安內閣」成員。顯然,這兩計畫並非未經國安考量。是否以高層與中南海有暗盤交易?不得而知。看來Horev將軍不是落於局外,便是另有政治目的。

  這些計畫以國政府低調處理。而《國土報》爆料後,西方主要媒體(多由猶太人控制)無一跟進。

  北京的「一帶一路」竟然已靜悄悄進入地中海。這只是冰山的一角。

  希臘一度破產,一一年GDP 負增長九點一趴。其最大港Piraeus在○五年開始接受中國經營,一六年被世界第二大綜合航運公司「中遠海控」(COSCO)買下。那是同年北京購併成立的。之後一年,Piraeus吞吐量增加十趴。它從○九至一七年貨輪量增加五倍。一六年,希臘GDP增長負○點二,一七年增長一點四趴。其國家經濟危機已度過。《紐約時報》一七年八月廿六日稱Piraeus已成為歐洲最繁忙的港口,也是「一帶一路在歐洲的龍頭」,何況一五年當選的新總統Tsipras曾表示希臘願意成為「中國進入歐洲的門戶」。

  一七年六月,「中遠海控」以美元二點二八億買下西班牙最大的Valencia港,以及北岸Bilbao港的貨櫃碼頭。一七年九月,「中遠海控」買下比利時第二大港Zeebrugge。此外,「中遠海控」於一六年以美元十四點三億購得歐洲最大港荷蘭鹿特丹卅五趴的股權,同年以美元五點八億購得義大利Vado 港四十趴的股權。「中遠海控」前身於○四年以美元五十三億購得安特衛普廿五趴的股權。

  當習慣軍事對抗的美國聚焦中國在亞太的軍力威脅時,北京已低調的用「超軍事手段」向西「佈點深耕、聯點成線、掃線蓋面」推進「不戰而主歐亞」的大戰略。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長

 

1.jpg

2.jpg

3.jpg

44154336_2129110100453728_4077999008633585664_o.jpg

 

5.jpg

6.jpg

7.jpg

8.jpg

9.jpg

10.jpg

11.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

" Chinese investment, and influence,
 

in Europe is growing" 


Economist October 6, 2018 pp.15.16.18

accessed October 15, 2018

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cV3OZGovWk

中國在歐洲以經濟、外交,高規格之接待方式手段擴展據點。
據點包括義大利輪胎公司Pirelli、倫敦機場Heathrow,希臘的最大港Piraeus等。

 

20181015 Gaining wisdom marching forward-1.jpg

20181015 Gaining wisdom marching forward-2.jpg

20181015 Gaining wisdom marching forward-3.jpg

 

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"The War No One Watches"

Time October 15, 2018 pp. 17&18

accessed September 15, 2018

 

43851521_2127731230591615_1172542457108234240_n.jpg

 

 

●神學士已打到離Kabul 75英里!美軍及阿富汗官方軍隊企圖奪回剛丟失的Ghazni 苦戰數日無功。

1975越南首都西貢淪陷的結局將很快重演!!!

時代雜誌2018/10/1517&18

●美國已派代表與神學士接觸進行"和平"談判。

華爾街日報 2018.10.12 ("U.S. envoy meets Taliban to push for peace talks" Wall Street Journal October 12, 2018 Courtesy Pierre Sheng)

●別國內戰中,數次美國支持的的政府將要敗於美國反對的"叛軍"時,美國便放棄元來支持的政府,甚至與美國淵來反對的"叛軍"談判。

 

林中斌 2018.10.15

 

43828542_2124173997614005_628637621333000192_n.jpg

43765068_2124174070947331_1725146182205833216_n.jpg

44047474_2127737363924335_1082896688525344768_n.jpg

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

林中斌,〈中日和解 〉

《聯合報》 2018年09月20日

accessed September 25, 2018

42551561_2102481899783215_5941820141409927168_o.jpg

名人堂稿件
日期:20180920 本文字數:1100 目標字數:1100

  日相安倍將於十月下旬正式訪問中國,結束「八年對抗」。但俗稱「中日急轉彎」的發展並非眾料所及。
  二一三年六月廿日,某週刊標題「日本軍事轉向,進攻釣島之戰難免」是當時主流看法。那年二月廿二日此欄拙文「釣島戰爭打不起來」屬異類孤音。 

42580860_2102483213116417_6328138194688671744_o.jpg

 

  即使安倍本月二日表示「日中關係已完全回到正軌」,十七日東京防衛省證實其二級潛艦已於十三日首次在南海演習,被視為溫和反制中國動作。中國外交部反應含蓄,僅不指名要求「區域外國家勿損害地區和平穩定」。

42537006_2102484296449642_4568528146927714304_o.jpg

42531615_2102484233116315_1351125981800169472_o.jpg



  去年六月,安倍一反原先抵制態度,開始對中國「一帶一路」逐漸加溫,先接受、後表態參與、再落實行動。今年七月,日本表示將與中國合作鋪設泰國BTS鐵路。以往日本激烈與中國在東南亞搶標,已首度轉為合作。
  安倍一方面尋求外交獨立,不跟美國,另一方面嚴守與美軍事同盟。他的「和中依美」兩手策略成因為何?近期為川普的多變,長期為習近平的謀略。

 

42526219_2102484746449597_1243340466087264256_o.jpg

42503822_2102485896449482_3818501727468912640_o.jpg


川普:

經貿批日,斤斤計較。儘管日本大量投資美國日本在美國生產兩倍於由日輸美的車輛,川普仍抱怨美日貿易逆差(去年七百億美元),也不豁免對日鋼鋁進口稅,並威脅日本若不降低美農作物進口關稅,美將減少在日駐軍以示懲罰。
熱朝冷日,情何以堪?今年華府平壤穿梭外交熱鬧,冷落了日本。東京不安,憂慮美國一旦與朝鮮和解簽約,保護了自己卻棄日安全於不顧。安倍顧問河井克行說:「今年六月川金新加坡會議震醒日本。我們在國安上面臨新的環境。」
習近平:劉亞洲一一年寫道:「美國的亞洲戰略是防止中日聯手。 (美國希望中日)世世做鶴蚌,它永遠做漁翁。只要中日雙方不能超越歷史和仇恨就誰也不能成世界大國。」此思維很可能影響了同為嗜書的太子黨習近平。習掌權後對日採取犀利的兩手策略。
高壓不懈,鬥而不破。無論是一三年宣佈的「東海防空識別區」,或節節升高的軍機軍艦繞行釣魚島,出入日本海,都造成日本莫大的壓力。但習嚴控中國海上力量,上台至今,從未衝撞日船,更未擦槍走火,落人話柄。與之前江、胡時代截然不同。
預留空間,爭取和日。一二年九月日相野田購買釣魚島,引爆中日危機。年底安倍二度登台任相後,便不斷謀求見習,以緩和情勢。習雖矜持但不拒人千里之外。他於一四年十一月臭臉見安倍。之後中日官方互動逐漸恢復。一五年三月,恢復中斷三年的部長互訪,十二月重啟政黨交流。今年五月,李克強為八年來首次訪日之總理。
同時,中日是世界第二、第三大經濟體,經貿互動密切,已各成為對方最大貿易夥伴,僅去年貿易額便增加九點九趴。他們聯手支持經貿「全球化」,無言對抗川普反全球化的主張。
如今,若堅稱安倍仍然「美國優先」挺美反中,恐有自誤誤人之險。
日本對中美也「兩面下注」(hedging)之後,東亞只剩我們最熟知的一國仍在挺美抗中。

 

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

Trump to China: ‘I Own You.’ Guess Again.

The New York Times September 25, 2018 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/25/opinion/trump-china-trade-economy-tech.html
accessed Sept. 29, 2018

1.jpg

作者Thomas Friedman:

"五年以前,中國只有兩家世界最大的科技公司,美國有九個。現在中國有九個,美國有11個。20年前,中國一個都沒有。"

"過去30年,中國飛快成長的公式是:努力工作、解放資本主義、睿智的計畫、長期的教育和基礎建設的投資、還有偷竊技術、強迫技術轉移、和對世界貿易組職規定違規。"

"照過去方式,美國可以用大量的金錢、軍隊、軍艦、大公司、頂尖大學、科學家來抑制像中國一樣的上升強權。但是現在已不可能了。"

 

The Chinese are catching up to the U.S. in many ways, and the president grasps only part of the reason.

By Thomas L. Friedman

Sept. 25, 2018

 

---五年以前,中國只有兩家世界最大的科技公司,美國有九個。現在中國有九個,美國有11個。20年前,中國一個都沒有。

Five years ago China had only two of the worlds largest publicly traded tech companies, while the U.S. had nine. Today, China has nine of the top 20 Alibaba, Tencent, Ant Financial, Baidu, Xiaomi, Didi, JD.com, Meituan and Toutiao — and the U.S. has 11. Twenty years ago, China had none.

 

----人工智慧方面,越多數據,越強。中國人多,產生數據也多,機器的訓練會很強。如果數據是石油,中國是沙烏地阿拉伯。

Because with A.I., the more training data you can feed the machine the faster it learns, the more patterns you can see and the more algorithms you can write to improve products and services or invent new ones. Because China has so many more people than we do, and so many more of them use mobile apps for their daily lives, China’s ability to amass giant data sets and train more machines faster is considerable.

If data is the new oil, then China is the new Saudi Arabia,”

 

----中國公司已經是電腦面相識別聲音識別的世界領袖。

Chinese companies are already the world leaders in computer vision/facial recognition and speech recognition, which can be used for commerce and for surveillance and societal control.

 

----中國有世界第一和第三大無人飛機的公司。

And the No. 1 and 3 drone manufacturers in the world DJI and Xiaomi are Chinese. Frances Parrot is No. 2. At the same time, China is producing far more engineers and scientists than the U.S., and their quality is steadily rising.

 

---- 過去30年,中國飛快成長的公式是:努力工作、解放資本主義、睿智的計畫、長期的教育和淒楚建設的投資、還有偷竊技術、強迫技術轉移、和對世界貿易組職規定違規。

China has grown incredibly these past 30 years with a very specific formula: hard work, unleashing capitalism, smart planning and long-range investments in education and infrastructure — but also by stealing intellectual property, forcing technology transfers and cheating on World Trade Organization rules.

 

----照過去方式,美國可以用大量的金錢、軍隊、軍艦、大公司、頂尖大學、科學家來抑制像中國一樣的上升強權。但是現在已不可能了。

Historically the U.S. could dominate the global scene and check a rising power like China, and set the global rules, with just our sheer physical mass more money, more troops, more naval ships, more top-10 companies, more scientists and more universities. That is just not possible any longer, as China has become both big and smart in more and more areas.

 

Luxury stores in Chongqing, China.CreditCreditThe New York Times

Early in the movie “Crazy Rich Asians” a Chinese-Singaporean father admonishes his young kids to finish their dinner, saying, “Think of all the starving children in America.” I’m sure that everyone of my generation in the theater laughed at that joke. After all, we’d all been raised on the line: “Finish your dinner. Think of all the starving children in China.”

That little line contained within it many messages: The first, which any regular traveler to China’s biggest urban areas can tell you, is that rich China today — its luxury homes, cars, restaurants and hotels — is really rich, rich like most Americans can’t imagine.

The second is that this moment was destined to be a test of who will set the key rules of the global order in the 21st century: the world’s long-dominant economic and military superpower, America, or its rising rival, China. And this test is playing out with a blossoming full-scale trade war.

What does such a test of wills sound like? It sounds like a senior Chinese official telling me at a seminar at Tsinghua University in April that it’s just “too late” for America to tell China what to do anymore on issues like trade, because China is now too big and powerful. And it sounds like President Trump, in effect, telling China: “Says who? Show me what you got, baby!” Or as Trump actually tweeted last week: “We are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us. … If we meet, we meet.”

I guess we should be grateful that this confrontation has been confined to trade, but, as I said, it was inevitable. Because, as one top tech executive pointed out to me: “China is not a ‘near peer’ anymore. It is a peer.”

As Mary Meeker’s latest internet trends study noted, five years ago China had only two of the world’s largest publicly traded tech companies, while the U.S. had nine. Today, China has nine of the top 20 — Alibaba, Tencent, Ant Financial, Baidu, Xiaomi, Didi, JD.com, Meituan and Toutiao — and the U.S. has 11. Twenty years ago, China had none.

 

A shopper using one of Alibaba’s automated checkout features at a supermarket in Hangzhou, China.CreditBryan Denton for The New York Times

Do you see a trend? Do you hear footsteps? The total value of China’s internet economy is already bigger than America’s. And China’s economy now is so cashless that many women no longer carry purses or men wallets — just a cellphone with mobile apps — to buy anything, or even donate to a beggar.

 

And don’t get me started on the biggest emerging work and services tool in the world — artificial intelligence. China’s plan is to catch up to America in A.I. and surpass it as soon as possible, and it’s well on its way. Because with A.I., the more training data you can feed the machine the faster it learns, the more patterns you can see and the more algorithms you can write to improve products and services or invent new ones. Because China has so many more people than we do, and so many more of them use mobile apps for their daily lives, China’s ability to amass giant data sets and train more machines faster is considerable.

If data is the new oil, then China is the new Saudi Arabia,” remarked Kai-Fu Lee, author of “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order.”

Chinese companies are already the world leaders in computer vision/facial recognition and speech recognition, which can be used for commerce and for surveillance and societal control. In just the last two years there has been an explosion of fintech start-ups in China, offering mobile payments, lending, brokerage and banking. And the No. 1 and 3 drone manufacturers in the world — DJI and Xiaomi — are Chinese. France’s Parrot is No. 2. At the same time, China is producing far more engineers and scientists than the U.S., and their quality is steadily rising.

America today, by contrast, has become the unrivaled world leader in generating data about Donald Trump and from Donald Trump.

In the daily barrage of Trump news and tweets, some Trump statements are actually true, though — like the need for the U.S. to confront China’s unfair trade practices. China has grown incredibly these past 30 years with a very specific formula: hard work, unleashing capitalism, smart planning and long-range investments in education and infrastructure — but also by stealing intellectual property, forcing technology transfers and cheating on World Trade Organization rules.

We have to respond. But wisely.

Historically the U.S. could dominate the global scene and check a rising power like China, and set the global rules, with just our sheer physical mass — more money, more troops, more naval ships, more top-10 companies, more scientists and more universities. That is just not possible any longer, as China has become both big and smart in more and more areas. But all is not lost.

It happens that we have three huge assets that China doesn’t have, and is unlikely to acquire them anytime soon. We should be doubling down on our strengths: immigration, allies and values. Instead, Trump is squandering them.

 

President Trump met with President Xi Jinping of China in Beijing in 2017.CreditDoug Mills/The New York Times

Many of the smartest and most talented people in the world — high-I.Q. risk-takers — still want to come to our country. And in a knowledge-talent era, where companies thrive by being the first and fastest to put intelligence into everything they make, we should be welcoming more high-skilled immigrants than ever and giving green cards to every Chinese, and other foreign students, who come to America for advanced degrees. China can’t attract the best and brightest Indian, Israeli, Arab, French, Brazilian and Korean immigrants, but we still can. So why would we put out a sign saying “Go Away” or make it harder for their students to stay here?

Also, we have real allies in a way China does not. China has clients, customers and frightened neighbors. It does not have real partners like Canada and Mexico. It doesn’t have the whole Atlantic alliance with the European Union or tight relations with Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia — which we can leverage if we aren’t doing stupid stuff, like slapping them with steel tariffs or tearing up the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Finally, as a society, we stand for things — or at least we used to stand for things — values people admire, about the dignity of human beings, the rights of minorities and women and the virtues of freedom and the rules for fair play.

Our nation has never been just a beacon for profit-making, which only measured countries by their trade balance with us. Our values attracted people to our shores and helped us spread our rules onto the wider world. When Trump tore up the TPP trade deal I’m certain that he actually disappointed China’s economic reformers, who wanted to use the pact to create pressures inside China to reform.

In short, a strategic president wouldn’t squander our strengths but would reinforce them by creating a stronger global network of people and countries that share our values. We won the Cold War with a strategy of containment and bankrupting the Soviet Union by outspending the Kremlin on defense. But we will “win” this standoff with China, not by brute force alone, or by containment of China’s giant economy, but by “entanglement” — entanglement of Chinese students with our schools, Chinese businesses with our values, and the Chinese government with our allies. That is, with the broad alliances and global institutions, and their rules of fair play, that we’ve been part of since World War II.

So we have to fight for those rules, and China will fight for its versions. But ultimately, I believe, the U.S. and China together will have to play the role that the U.S. played alone after World War II — to define the rules of the new international order, from A.I. to privacy to trade. And our weight in that process — we must never forget — will depend on the talent we attract, the allies we rally and the values we embrace and promote.

Thomas L. Friedman is the foreign affairs Op-Ed columnist. He joined the paper in 1981, and has won three Pulitzer Prizes. He is the author of seven books, including “From Beirut to Jerusalem,” which won the National Book Award. @tomfriedman • Facebook

A version of this article appears in print on Sept. 26, 2018, on Page A27 of the New York edition with the headline: China’s Being Smart, and Trump Isn’t.

42721225_2106667159364689_6699900255908921344_o.jpg

42761195_2106667142698024_3520935986496274432_o.jpg

 

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Hunker Down"

Economist September 22, 2018 p.12

accessed September 26, 2018

42532722_2103522649679140_6102570476557565952_o.jpg

  這是英國人客觀的看美國對中國貿易施壓。中國的確有犯規。但美國責怪中國的說法並不完全成立。而且美國不但自己經濟受傷,也不能達到削減中美貿易逆差的目的。經濟學人並稱之為"unjust war"(不義之戰/不公平之戰)

倫敦經濟學人922日的社論說:
-- "川普新一輪對中國所加的關稅會對傷害美國目前蓬勃的經濟,也會增加美國的通膨。但大多數美國人不會注意到。"
"President Trump's new tariffs unveiled are likely to damage America's sizzling economy, or to boost inflation by much. Though most Americans will not notice the damage."

-- "白宮說 中國貿易犯規、美中貿易赤字、和美國工業衰退是一回事。 其實,它們不是一回事。"
"The White House may argue that China's abuse of rules, the trade deficit and the decline of American industry are one and the same. They are not."

 

林中斌 試摘譯 敬請賜教 2018.9.25

 

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"J.K. Rowling's friend loves a puzzle"

International New York Times September 20, 2018 pp.1,2

accessed September 25, 2018

 

42534162_2102461903118548_1127353259351080960_o.jpg

 

  哈利波特的女士作者以男性假名已出版三本暢銷偵探小說。第四本這周推出。大家才發現真相!!!

  Up to now, three best sellers of the detective Cormoran Strike had been published without the public ever having seen a picture of their author Robert Galbraith who, according to J.K. Rowling of Harry Potter's fame was a good friend of hers. As the fourth book hit the market this week, the author has just revealed him/herself J.K. Rowling!!!

 

42452028_2102461886451883_5644236670812291072_o.jpg

 

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()

"Israel Is Giving China the Keys to Its Largest Port – and the U.S. Navy May Abandon Israel"

Haaretz - Israel News September 17, 2018

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-israel-is-giving-china-the-keys-to-its-largest-port-and-the-u-s-navy-may-abandon-israel-1.6470527

accessed September 22, 2018

1.jpg

 

 

Has anyone expected this?

以色列將讓中國運作以國最大港口Hafei 25年。

"Dominating Eurasia without war" was in my April 22, 2015 United Daily News piece, and later printed in my Co-authored book "Sunlight Through the Clouds" published in August 2017.

"不戰而主歐亞"(2015.4.22 聯合報名人堂); "不戰而主東亞"(新加坡聯合早報訪問,2004.11.4)

 China has been effectively using "extra-military" instruments on the front with rapidly advancing military capabilities as the backbone, which was not expected by the West. Only in the recent two or three years, the West woke up to the inroads made by China in Eurasia and Latin America not by war but by "checkbook diplomacy", and the West does not know what to do about it except by warning ineffectively the rest of the world of China's "new colonialism".

林中斌 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()