林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

東亞列國：和縱新局 (Balance in Flux：East Asian Power Dynamics)

May 19, 2018

以下是2018.5.19淡江大學國際會議的主題演講。
This is a keynote delivered at the annual international conference organized by the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies. (more notes in English follow those in Chinese)
●題目是 東亞列國：和縱新局 (Balance in Flux：East Asian Power Dynamics)
●感謝淡大戰略所李大中所長邀請。
●中斌原先願意以英文提報。李所長考量提升收聽效果，以及與會外賓皆懂中文，傾向用中文。中斌遵照辦理。

敬請賜教。
林中斌 2018.5.23

●The topic was "Balance in Flux： East Asian Power Dynamics".
●The keynote began by challenging two mainstream views.
1. North Korea turns to the U.S. to foil China
2. China is increasingly isolated in East Asia
●Recent foreign policy adjustments of China's neighbors have suggested a re-evaluation of these mainstream views.
●Two factors are offered to explain the new trend.
●One is President Donald Trump's "America First" policy and his policy unpredictability.
●The second is Beijing's grand strategy of "Dominating East Asia without War" characterized by "extra-military emphasis" and "struggle without breaking" 
(Beijing's grand strategy was first presented October 4, 2004 at the U.S.-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference, Hilton Scottsdale Resort and Villas, Scottsdale, Arizona. See Chong-Pin Lin, " Win with Wisdom: when wrestling with a giant" 以智取勝 Taipei: Global Defense Magazine 2005 p.v)
(For "Struggle without Breaking", see Chong-Pin Lin, "Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Struggle without Breaking" Asian Survey Vol.55 Number 3, May-June 2015 pp.478-500)

Chong-Pin Lin May 23, 2018