林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

陸11月PMI回升 下行壓力仍在

accessed Dec 2, 2019

■中國經濟運行顯露由降轉穩。

■中國在貿易戰前已經濟下滑。

■貿易戰對中國之衝擊並非下滑唯一原因。

■中國趁機調整自己經濟。

■舉華為一例，今年頭9月比去年同時期利潤上升24%。

■舉今年11/12月Foreign Affairs 專文“The Unwinnable Trade War"為例, 中國受傷小於美國。

Where there is a will, there is Huawei

accessed Dec 2, 2019

Where there is a will, there is Huawei

■美國封鎖華為漏洞甚多。

■今年頭九個月，華為利潤比年同期上升24%。

野心盡現 中國外館數量首度超美

accessed Nov 28, 2019

A cross-over.

The Wisdom Your Body Knows

accessed Dec 2, 2019

The Wisdom Your Body Knows

我們身體的智慧

■我們也用肚腸思想！（Hence our "gut feelings" )

■還有用心思想、用肺及用腎思想！

■有一條神經(vagus nerve)由腦通心、肺、胃、腸、腎（廣意的腎？）。這是科學家近來的發現！

■這條神經是我們腦與身體在不知不覺對話(unconscious conversation)的管道。

■在下心得：運動使身體舒暢，也自然使思想正面、思緒敏銳。

北約峰會在即，川普聚焦中國威脅

accessed Dec 1, 2019

北約峰會在即，川普聚焦中國威脅：法國不跟進排除華為

大標題不意外。第二小標有新聞。

聯合及自由皆同聲

accessed Dec 1, 2019

聯合及自由皆同聲。

Beijing's Grand Strategy: Implications on Belt Road Initiative and Taiwan Security

accessed Nov 18, 2019

“Beijing's Grand Strategy: Implications on Belt Road Initiative and Taiwan Security”

Keynote Speech, 2019 International Conference on PLA Modernization November 14, 2019

■Opening Remarks

From 1949 to 1979, China waged six wars across its borders. From 1979 to 2019, the number of wars it waged beyond its borders is zero.

Why?

■If you say that the world became more peaceful since 1979, and that is why. It is not so!

■During the same forty years since 1979, the U.S. launched seven wars abroad and occupied two countries. Meanwhile, the former Soviet Union and Russia, fought five wars abroad and occupied three countries. Yet, on both scores, China’s is zero.

Why then?

■During the first 30 years, as China was poor, backward and struggling, it was prone to war-fighting. In the following 40 years, as China began to rise, it has become war-aversive.

■“War is an instrument of ill-omen, use it only when left with no choice.” So said Laozi, a Chinese sage in the sixth century before Christ. As China gradually becomes prosperous, war as a foreign policy option falls to the last priority.

■In strong contrast to the West, Sun Zi -- the most influential Chinese strategist over more than two thousand years -- said, “ Winning without fighting is the optimal strategy.” In other words, in war or any form of contest, violence is best to be avoided. The underlying spirit is to seek the approach that encounters the least resistance. As a result, to achieve victory with minimum casualties and bloodshed is the most desirable.

■Whereas, Karl von Clausewitz, the equivalent of Sunzi in the West, said “War is violence pushed to its utmost bounds.” In other words, in war, violence is maximized and unavoidable. Crushing the enemy with overwhelming force is the best, regardless of casualties and bloodshed.

■Deeply rooted in Chinese strategic tradition, Beijing’s grand strategy in the 21st century is “dominating Europe, Asia and Africa or Eurasiafrica without war”.

With what then？

■With extra-military instruments such as economy, diplomacy, and culture on the front, but supported by China’s rapidly advancing military capabilities as the backbone. The idea, seemingly self-contradictory, is reminiscent of Teddy Roosevelt’s adage, “Speak softly and carry a big stick, you will go far.”

■“Extra-military” differs from “non-military” in that it transcends, but not excludes, the military.

■The purpose is to minimize resistance for Beijing to expand its geopolitical influence.

■The decision for Beijing to go west first – over the World Island and Africa, --instead of east -– over the Pacific, -- also reflects choosing the route of the least resistance to avoid immediate confrontation with the U.S. and Japan.

■In this context, Beijing’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI) visibly manifests its unsaid grand strategy.

林中斌倫敦政經學院演講"一帶一路"

accessed Nov 12, 2019

林中斌倫敦政經學院演講"一帶一路"2019年2月23日

這是今年2月在倫敦演講的錄影。在下的部分是13:46~23:58。之後尚有問答部分(36:47~39:36；50:57~51:47；56:50~57:56；1:03:45~1:09:02)。

敬請賜教。

林中斌 2019.11.12

This is the February 23, 2019 conference/debate on China's Belt Road Initiative at London School of Economics. My presentation comes in at 13:46 and ends at 23:58.During the Q&A, my contributions come in four additional segments.(36:47~39:36；50:57~51:47；56:50~57:56；1:03:45~1:09:02)

Chong-Pin Lin

影片連結：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CFJilBO2ZGaVeX6rnhmb6OttLK0B8ZzI/view

巴西川普反中變親中

accessed Nov 15, 2019

20191115 巴西川普反中變親中

以下請看從2011至2019之情勢演變

■20110208 中國貨侵門踏戶 巴西要向中國宣戰

■20150410 中國援巴西 1088億

■20150519 李克強抵巴西 促兩洋鐵路雙贏

■20181026 巴西川普批中掠奪者 北京急了

■20181030 巴西新總統親台

■20181030 熱帶川普 當選巴西總理

決戰中途島

accessed Nov 21, 2019

佳片推薦。

■導演獨立製作。無大製片場支持他。

■他所需要的$100million 最後缺$27million由中資公司湊足。

■氣派大、觀點公平。給予日軍將領及士兵應有的尊重。

■呈現雙方軍人視死如歸的精神，感人。

■描述雙方戰略鬥智精彩。