林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

世外桃源，某花園，新店

accessed Oct 18, 2019

Precious impressions of an other-worldly garden, Xindian/Hsientien, New Taipei City, 2012-2019

Chong-Pin Lin October 18, 2019

欲瀏覽全部相片，請至： http://chongpinlin.pixnet.net/album/set/8766278

NASA Says Earth Is Greener Today Than 20 Years Ago Thanks To China, India

accessed Oct 11, 2019

Courtesy Ingram Tang

https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2019/02/28/nasa-says-earth-is-greener-today-than-20-years-ago-thanks-to-china-india/#72f635676e13

民主自毀 專政當紅

《聯合報》，2019年9月27日，A19版

accessed Sep 27, 2019

民主自毀 專政當紅

聯合報 2019年9月27日 A19

林中斌

名人堂稿件

日期：201900924/25 文字數：1100 目標字數:1100

「民主死在槍桿下，或政變後，或革命中。這是普遍的看法。但是今日的民主更可能在人民的名義下被絞殺！」

九月六日倫敦《經濟學人》封面報導如是說。最突出但並非唯一的的實例是匈牙利。形式上，它是興旺的民主；實質上，它是一黨專政。

今年四月普選下，匈牙利執政黨Fidesz只贏得全國四十九點二趴的選票，卻獲得國會六十七趴的席次。因為每選區產生一位議員。即使只有五十點一趴的選票，他在國會卻代表全區選民。何況，選區劃分扭曲變形，有利執政黨。

連續執政九年的民選匈牙利總理歐爾班(Victor Orban)是這一切的操盤手。像希特勒一樣，他炒作排外的族群主義、激起偏見、製造分裂、鞏固政權。然後大量安插同學、汰換法官、修改憲法、箝制自由媒體。

權威的《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)雙月刊在今年九月號的血色的封面上打出震憾的主題「專政當紅」(Autocracy Now)配上五個身著黑衣的人頭：俄羅斯的普丁、土耳其的埃爾多萬、習近平、歐爾班、菲律賓的杜特蒂。而其中四位是人民合法選出的領袖。根據美國超黨派、非營利、無政見的研究所Pew Research民調，近至一七年普丁與杜特蒂在各自國內仍享八十趴以上的廣義支持度。這應是Pew Research顯示今年一月國內滿意度卅七趴的美總統川普所羨慕的。

諷刺的是，在西方老牌的民主國家，人民滿意度卻令人驚訝的低迷。去年Pew Research一次對北美歐洲八個國家的民調顯示超過半數以上的人民不滿意他們的民主。幾乎七十趴美國和法國的人民認為他們的政治人物貪腐。

《經濟學人》特別指出西方善於操作憤怒和仇恨的政治領袖。美國的川普總統叫四位外裔美國女眾議員「滾回你們破爛、罪犯橫行的國家。」以色列首相納坦雅胡指責政府調查他貪腐是國內大老們編織的陰謀。英國首相約翰遜要強行脫歐但缺乏足夠的國會支持，竟然玩弄程序企圖在關鍵時刻停止國會運作五週(結果被判違憲而失敗)！

「民主正在垂死？」(Is Democracy Dying?) 是一八年五月號《外交事務》封面標題。「民主已死？」(Is Democracy Dead?)是先前一四年十二月四日《紐約時報》一篇前英國首相布萊爾評論的標題。這兩份重量級的文字巧合的呼應了更早一四年三月十八日筆者在此專欄的拙文「民主病了」。

日本《朝日新聞》從一二年底至一三年初派採訪小組，遍訪全球卅國家，探討四十個民主政治實踐案例，一五年日文出版專書「混沌的深淵」，次年中文翻譯出版叫「民主是最好的制度嗎？」封面上貼出三個問題：

●討厭支持貪婪財閥的政府嗎？那可都是人民自己選出來的！

●自由市場最棒？它可是政治背後毫無道德廉恥的黑手！

●民主為當前世界主流價值，為何卻讓各國人民吃進苦頭？

檢討民主弊病也許是西方自由派的牢騷。但不爭的事實是：老牌民主出現挑撥族群、傳播仇恨的作法；而全球專政國家影響力上升。

民主理想光環已不再。民主即正義已不再。民主目的可合理化一切手段已不再。

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授，曾任國防部副部長

命中率0的平反

accessed Oct 1, 2019

命中率0的平反

The photo hot from the wire of today's ceremony in Beijing showing Beijing's top leaders as 7+1 is most welcome to one who had predicted that Wang Qishan would stay on power on October 13, 2017 and was labeled on October 28 as one who made zero-accuracy prediction.

在北京大典上熱播的照片，顯示了中共的最高領導集團是7+1的型態。這對那個曾於2017年10月13日預測王岐山會留任，稍後於10月28日被貼上「命中率0」標籤的人，是莫大的欣慰。(廖偉鈞譯，2019年10月7日)

長崎與東京的祭孔

accessed Sep 29, 2019

長崎與東京的祭孔

感謝一位日本東京大學教授點醒我的無知。他寄來以下的連接。

-- 活了一輩子都不知道日本如此重視孔子。

--文革的中共和今日的台灣值得就此深切反思。

林中斌謹誌 2019.9.29

附記:

東大教授朋友昨日又補充說明--

也許有人說2017長琦的祭孔是因為長琦有大量中國人。其實不然。東京的孔廟(湯島聖堂)是17世紀幕府所設立。

Opponents may say that there is a Chinese presence in Nagasaki. But this has been held for many years, by local people.

Yushima Seido was created by then-Japanese shogunate in the 17th century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yushima_Seid%C5%8D

林中斌 2019.9.30

長崎孔廟祭孔（2017年）

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwnX-8YV670

東京・湯島聖堂祭孔（2013年）

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qT85EcIq7Y

伊藤博文揮毫韓愈文

accessed Sep 30, 2019

伊藤博文揮毫韓愈文

這是日本明治維新時首相伊藤博文(1841--1909, 首相 1864--1909)展現的儒學及書法造詣。他留學英倫但並未因此放棄東方文化。不知今日兩岸政治領袖見此作何感想?

感謝東京大學日本教授提供。

唐頓莊園 Downton Abbey

accessed Sep 23, 2019

唐頓莊園 Downton Abbey

● 含蓄、得體、機智的對話。細膩、莊重的禮儀。閃耀、威武的馬隊閱兵。高雅、豪華的舞會。體諒、仁慈的價值。今世已不復見。

● 令人懷舊的 "La belle epoque" (美好的時代)。

● 1912年喬治五世的一次莊園巡視編入電影成為1927年的一個虛構的皇室巡視約克郡莊園事件。

●備受好評電視系列改編成得獎的電影。高度推薦。

華倫民調已明顯超過桑德斯

accessed Oct 2, 2019

華倫民調已明顯超過桑德斯。

-- 原先兩者政見似乎太相像，而華倫進場2018年底，晚於桑德斯2015年已開始競選，華倫數月來屈居桑德斯之下。現在她已突破此侷限。

-- 2019.7.4 拙作說"華倫坐三望二，甚至望一"。今日已明顯"望一"。

敬請賜教

林中斌 2019.10.2

“THE PROGRESSIVE ENERGY…IS INCREASINGLY MOVING TOWARD WARREN”: HOW ELIZABETH WARREN IS EATING SANDERS’S LEFT LUNCH

Tactically, methodically, the Massachusetts senator is making herself the progressives’ consensus candidate. The ultimate prize? An AOC endorsement.

BY CHRIS SMITH

SEPTEMBER 19, 2019

Elizabeth Warren

BY SCOTT EISEN/GETTY IMAGES.

The first endorsement seemed fairly random, and it drew only minor attention. In early September, Elizabeth Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, announced that she was backing Kendra Brooks, who is running for an at-large seat on Philadelphia’s city council in this November’s election. The second endorsement, one week later, sparked national headlines and could prove a major boost to Warren’s pursuit of the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. The connective tissue? Brooks is running for the Philly council on the Working Families Party line, and Warren now has the WFP’s backing for her White House run.

There was no direct quid pro quo driving the two endorsements. But there is a strategic link, one that extends to Warren’s endorsements of Marie Newman, in Illinois, and Jessica Cisneros, in Texas, who are challenging moderate incumbent Democratic congressmen. Warren is methodically trying to become the consensus candidate of the left, undercutting Bernie Sanders (who is also backing Newman) and unifying progressive support against Joe Biden. “Warren getting behind Brooks in Philadelphia was a very smart move,” says Rebecca Katz, a progressive political consultant who is not aligned with any of the Democratic contenders. “If I’m a WFP member, that show of solidarity—right as the WFP is deciding its presidential endorsement—is a good thing for Warren.”

There is some murkiness about just how the WFP awarded Warren its backing—the party’s process involves a weighted vote split between the rank and file and leadership, and some analysts believe the WFP membership went for Sanders, with the party’s bosses throwing decisive support behind Warren. The WFP hasn’t released the specific tally. Regardless, its official backing went to Warren, and it adds to her momentum. “It isn’t determinative,” says Mark Longabaugh, a top strategist for Sanders in 2016. “But it’s an important indicator that Warren’s campaign is doing the blocking and tackling it takes to get the nomination.”

The left is hardly monolithic, yet it is a greater force in this cycle thanks to the larger Democratic field, the galvanizing effect of President Donald Trump, and to Sanders’s success in remaking the policy conversation. “The biggest difference from four years ago is that the left won the debate after 2016,” says Waleed Shahid, who supported Sanders then, helped steer the upset win by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2018, and is now the communications director for Justice Democrats, the influential liberal advocacy group. “So everyone who is running for president in 2020 is basically running to the left of Hillary Clinton. Even Michael Bennet, one of the most conservative Democratic senators, supports the health care public option.” That policy shift—accelerated by Trump’s retrograde moves on immigration, abortion, and civil rights—is propelling the chase for left-of-center primary voters.

“The left for the Democrats is now what the evangelicals were for the Republicans 20 or 30 years ago—the energy of the party, the fighting spirit of the party,” says Neal Kwatra, a Democratic strategist who has extensive experience with grassroots groups and labor unions. “And do the math: The progressives in this race, collectively, are beating Biden in the polls by two to one.”

Warren can’t assume that Sanders supporters would move to her and not to Biden. But she is betting that consolidating the left is her best path to victory. The WFP endorsement is a step in that direction, not simply because it will add some field troops to Warren’s side. “What’s most important is that it sets up a permission structure for people to gravitate to the candidate with the most authentic progressive brand,” Kwatra says. “It’s an unequivocal statement that the progressive energy in the race is increasingly moving toward Warren. It’s a pretty emphatic exclamation point in the primary-within-a-primary fight between her and Bernie, and it’s going to allow other progressive organizations and unions to get behind Warren.”

民主黨總統初選民調 華倫躍第一 首度贏拜登

accessed Sep 23, 2019

華倫勝出因素:

-- 一開始便在愛荷華佈重兵。僱用工作人員十倍於競爭者。

-- 華倫對一打政策都有詳細規劃。相對的，拜登政策空洞，桑德斯只有單一政策主張而且內容不及華倫周延。

Republicans have choices in 2020

accessed Oct 4, 2019

Republicans have choices in 2020

美國共和黨新保守主義的意見領袖站出來呼籲共合黨另尋明年大選該黨總統候選人取代川普。

---同時, 川普施壓澳洲總理幫他調查競選對手的新聞也爆出。

William Kristol, neo-conservative commentator of note,

-- has come out to say "But surely we know enough to judge that Mr.Trump does not deserve renomination for that office (of the U.S. president) for an additional four years." (Int'l New York Times, October 2, 2019

-- He is the son of Irving Kristol, the once leading torch of the American neo-conservatives, who was at Washington think-tank when I joined AEI 1987-1995.

-- At the same time, the troubles for president Trump seem snowballing. After Ukraine, Australia was also asked to aid Trump queries for purpose of domestic election campaign.

Ching-Pin Lin October 4, 2019