目前分類:佳文共享 (468)

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In Chinas Sights: A New Missile Threatens the U.S. Navys Biggest WarshipsAnd Stability in the Pacific
Mark Thompson , Time , 28 July 2014





This “new missile” of China’s should be the “assassin’s mace” of the PLA which was hotly discussed in the late 1990s and the early 21st century among the Asian security experts in the U.S.
By the way, the term “assassin’s mace” is a misinterpretation of the Chinese term “shashoujian” (殺手鐧).A better translation is “the fatal mace” as “shashou” refers to the characteristic -- “killing” -- of the weapon rather than the user --  “killer” -- of the weapon.  In a similar vein, qishou means the initial in qishoushi (起手式: the initial posture in certain style of the martial art) rather than the beginner.
Chong-Pin Lin December 19, 2014

 
“東風21-D”, 這項流傳十數年的解放軍武器, 應該就是台海危機之後解放軍宣稱在發展的 殺手鐧”。這篇時代雜誌20147月的報導呈顯了美國國防界的重視、也反映了他們的不安。
報導所未提的是:“東風21-D”及其配屬的各種彈頭 (油氣彈、子母彈、穿甲彈等等)構成全世界至今唯一的”反鑑彈導飛彈”。目前,其他的反艦導彈 並非”彈導飛彈”,也無此長距離的射程,更無此攜帶多彈頭的能力,更無此多樣化的彈頭選擇。
在此,我更要感念已離去的好友,廖文中先生。是他最早告訴我,解放軍在發展各式各樣專打航空母艦的彈頭。他是我提供給2007114日國防新聞資訊的來源。可惜國防新聞記者並未依我原稿把廖老師大名登出。 (Wendell Minnick, "China Develop Anti-ship Ballistic Missiles Defense News January 14, 2007 p.12)。那時西方專家還沒人注意此發展。

林中斌 20141219

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Japan's Political Sclerosis
R. Taggart Murphy , International New York Times , DEC. 12, 2014
 
 



 
這位美國投資銀行家,是布魯金斯智庫學者,現任日本大學教授。以下是 他對安倍勝選的觀察。他警告的是:日本政治體制的氣脈堵塞不通,其肌理組織又僵化了。 那才是長遠的危機。他分析:日本政府否認二戰之行為,主要來自美國的撐腰。
林中斌 20141219

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 China's Checkmate: S-400 Looms Large Over Taiwan
 
WENDELL MINNICK, Defense News, Dec. 6, 2014
 
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141206/DEFREG03/312060024/China-s-Checkmate-S-400-Looms-Large-Over-Taiwan



 
Lin Chong-Pin, former deputy minister of national defense who also served as the first vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, said the S-400 is “another increment of a growing package of ‘game changers,’ which began emerging a decade ago.”
 
Taiwan’s military advantages over China began eroding in the early 1990s. As a consequence, China’s strategy “evolved from a war of annihilation to a war of paralysis as the battle scenario on Taiwan.”
 
Now, Lin said, even a military operation on Taiwan based on a “war of paralysis ranks low among Beijing’s options, as Beijing has available so many other what I call ‘extra-military instruments’ — economic, media-related, diplomatic, psychological — to eventually ‘integrate’ Taiwan into China’s fold.”

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 Civil Liberties in Peril Down Under
 
Raymond Bonner, International New York Times, NOV. 28, 2014


Liberal democracies in the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand have lost their moral high ground.                                       
Chong-Pin Lin December 12, 2014

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 Why Kabul Courts Beijing
Zalmay Khalilzad, International New York Times, Nov. 4, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/opinion/why-afghanistan-courts-china.html

這是美國之前駐阿富汗大使所寫的觀察。他解釋為何阿國新選出總統一上任就直奔北京。主要原因是:
(1) 中國可以透過與巴基斯坦軍方之長期良好關係而與神學士對話。
(2) 神學士威脅阿富汗政府。
(3) 中國有錢投資阿富汗之建設而美國相對已沒有錢投資阿富汗了。
(4) 中國儼然已成仲裁者以及和事佬。他主張三方對話:美,阿,中。
林中斌 2014117

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Apologizing to Japan
PAUL KRUGMAN, International The New York Times, Nov. 1, 2014

 
 
諾貝爾經濟學得主Paul Krugman表示他應向日本道歉。因為他曾批評日本經濟政策失誤而導致目前經濟困境。他說西方竟也步上日本後塵。林中斌  2014116
 
 
“ For almost two decades, Japan has been held up as a cautionary tale. And, Western economists were scathing in their criticisms of Japanese policy. I was one of those critics. I often find myself thinking that we ought to apologize.”
 

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 Group urges changes at Japan war shrine
MARTIN FACKLER,International The New York Times,OCT. 30, 2014

 


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/world/asia/japan-yasukuni-shrine-izokukai.html

 
日本右派保守的遺族社,早先曾建議小泉首相當選後要參拜他們的祖先(靖國神社),最近建議14位甲級戰犯自靖國神社移出。
                                                 林中斌  20141106

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軍委主席習近平就戰爭問題
對軍委領導幹部的講話


http://www.boxun.com/news/gb/china/2014/04/201404200945.shtml accessed October 31, 2014
(博訊北京時間2014年4月20日 轉載)
(博訊編者按:此文傳播於網路,博訊全文轉發。)

 
如此深入、有見地、有軍事背景、有法律素養、有人道(佛教/因果關係)精神的講話,除了來自習近平之外,很難想像是谁。
 
對毛澤東作法的批評,直接反映習近平對習仲勛16年被鬥爭的難以忘懷。
喜歡看電影,一直是習近平的特色。(WikileaksAmbassador Randt's cable to the State Department)

妥善處理與美國關係已是習近平的商標。2014年11APEC之後的 "
莊園會談"將可見到更多跡象。   

 
林中斌 201495
 

以下為我青年朋友Antonio S 所作之文字分析,包括:
A. 文字雲
B. 詞語出現頻率
C. 單字出現頻率

 


個人解讀為:
1. 習近平重視妥善處理與美國關係。其迫切性高於中蘇關係之維持(中蘇關係已經不錯了)
2. 習近平希望中國擺脫被世界認為是非主流的形象而成為世界文明及普世價值之領袖。
3. 習近平不希望中國對外發動戰爭,而希望用其他方式處理國際之爭議。

 
林中斌 2014117
 

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四中全會 學者:反貪制度化
中央社, Oct. 19, 2014
 
http://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201410190079-1.aspx?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cnaToday+%28Central+News+Agency+%7C+RealTime+News%29

長期研究中共政情的學者林中斌向中央社表示,習近平知道不反貪必定「亡黨亡國」,但也清楚現在能反貪是因為他是強勢領袖,如果沒有制度上的設計,很可能「人亡政亡,2022年以後又恢復原狀」。”

 

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A Chinese rival to the World Bank
David Dollar, Hugh White, & Oliver Rui, International New York Times Oct. 20, 2014
 

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China's 'Rule of Law'
Paul Gewittz, International New York Times,  Oct. 20, 2014
,

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The Chinese Flu Spreads Across Global Markets
Ruchir Sharma, Wall Street Journal, Oct. 20, 2014
 

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The journalist and the emperor
Norihiro Kato, International New York Times, Oct. 15, 2014


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/opinion/norihiro-kato-daring-to-ask-hirohito-about-his-role-in-WW2.html?_r=0

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U.S. and Russia Agree to Share More Intelligence on ISIS
MICHAEL R. GORDON  OCT. 14, 2014
 


這是習的幕僚之前所說的 "新三國演義"美、中、俄都在爭取"大戰略三角"中的關鍵的地位:其他兩國交惡但同時都對這國示好。目前中國是贏家。也有消息來源(a certain T. Wang)指出,習近平之前已在布局撮合美俄。而今美俄各因情勢變化(美國制裁俄國得不償失;俄國因受制裁而多少受傷),也願意和解。中國“順水推舟”樂得做和事佬。
林中斌  20141017
 

Obama is finally turning around to taking seriously John Mearsheimer's suggestion in the March 2014 oped "Getting Ukraine Wrong" that the U.S. needs cooperation from Russia to deal with Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and eventually to counter China, the only genuine potential rival to the U.S." This is the new "Three Kingdoms". Each of the three big powers-- the U.S., Russia, and China-- is trying to occupy the pivotal position in the grand strategic triangle. That is the country wooed/courted simultaneously by the other two while the other two are at odds with each other. One source (a certain T. Wang) pointed out that Xi Jinping has for sometimes been trying to mediate between Obama and Putin. With neither the U.S. nor Russia benefiting from their rivalry (the U.S.-led sanction imposed on Russia has hurt both), the two are now willing to reconcile, while China skillfully earns the credit for being the peace-maker.
Chong-Pin Lin October 17, 2014

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The journalist and the emperor
Norihiro Kato Oct.15, 2014
 

 

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Hirohito: String Puller, Not Puppet
HERBERT P. BIX  SEPT. 29, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/opinion/hirohito-string-puller-not-puppet.html

美國賓漢頓大學榮譽教授說裕仁天皇是發動日本二戰主要的推手。因為他發動戰爭的責任被複雜的決策路線掩蓋,又被美國戰後特意掩藏,所以至今日本沒有為二戰道歉。例如,麥帥與他9次談話,只公布了一次。
林中斌 20141017
 
Emeritus professor of history at Binghamton University listed the facts to indicate Emperor Hirohito was a "dynamic, activist and conflicted monarch" who was responsible for Japan's war of invasion. The reason why Japan has not repented for the War is that no one could be held responsible, thanks to the policy-making system that has protected Hirohito from taking the blame and to the U.S. efforts to hide Hirohito's responsibility.
Chong-Pin Lin Oct. 6, 2014
 

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China hopes marriage can cool strife in Xinjiang
EDWARD WONG  SEPT. 2, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/03/world/asia/to-temper-unrest-china-pushes-interethnic-marriage-between-han-and-minorities.html


習近平對付新疆動亂在嚴打之外,另有軟的一手。辦法早在20145月便開始策畫,8月開始試點。一剛一柔,先剛後柔。這似乎是習近平的風格。對達賴已如此處理,對日本可能如此。對香港呢?對台灣呢?尚待觀察。
林中斌  20141017

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Smelling Liberal, Thinking Conservative
Arthur C. Brooks  OCT. 4, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/opinion/sunday/arthur-c-brooks-smelling-liberal-thinking-conservative.html

政治立場一樣的人,嗅覺上喜歡彼此的氣味。但是有反省能力、有思考能力的人可以邁過這天生的分野。哈佛大學的科學家已由實驗證明此一現象。他們選20個政治立場分歧的人,貼上軟布膠帶24小時後,撕下軟布膠帶存入冰箱。然後,請125志願者嗅聞.......
林中斌  20141017

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達賴喇嘛特使與北京談判返藏
中央社 記者何宏儒 2014.08.25

http://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/201408250220-1.aspx

201369日亞洲週刊登載黨校靳薇教授訪問(pp.16&17),她建議讓達賴返國。今年早先已有訊息,北京在研究此案。習近平第七項超越- 對宗教/超自然現象之開放態度-將發揮作用。請參閱個人先前的文章http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/65070196
林中斌 2014828
 


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Enough Hate for Everyone
Kenan Malik  August 22, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/22/opinion/kenan-malik-muslims-and-jews-are-targets-of-bigotry-in-europe.html

這是一篇深入的觀察。在歐洲各國,反猶太的情緒在上升。近因是以色列對巴勒斯坦Hamas 殺害數位猶太人後強烈的武力報復,軍民死亡上千人。關鍵是,各國反猶太人口的比例竟然高於境內回教人口! 在波蘭,回教人口占全國的0.1%,而反猶太人口超過全國人口2/3! 另外讓人意外的是:歐洲反猶太和返回教的比例同時升高。
林中斌 2014828
 
This is indeed a very insightful observation on the rise of anti-Semitism in Europe, perhaps due to the recent disproportional military reprisal of Israel against the Hamas. What surprises me is that the anti-Semitic population is higher than the Muslim population in European countries. In Poland for instance, 0.1% of population is Muslim, while more than 2/3 of the total population is anti-Semitic! Meanwhile, both the anti-Semitic and the anti-Muslim populations in Europe are growing.
Chong-Pin Lin  August 28, 2014

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