林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Preventing a War Over Taiwan

Kenneth Lieberthal, “Preventing War over Taiwan” Foreign Affairs March/April 2005 pp.53-63
Abstract (Summary)

One of the greatest dangers to international security today is the possibility of a military confrontation between China and Taiwan that leads to a war between China and the US. Such a war would be not only tragic but unnecessary, since it would result in a failure of imagination and diplomacy - fought because a place that has long declared itself independent was attacked for doing so again. Neither Beijing nor Taipei wants a war, but both sides have adopted policies that run an unacceptably high risk of bloodshed over the next several years. The Bush administration should therefore take steps now to reduce the prospect of conflict across the Taiwan Strait. Understanding what those steps should be, however, requires getting past the rhetorical constructs that have dominated discussion to date. Given the relatively brief window of opportunity during which a stable framework agreement can be reached, the Bush administration should move quickly.

 

Download link:https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzMW1DYzNjTUpkbGc

BEIJING’S NEW GRAND STRATEGY: AN OFFENSIVE WITH EXTRA-MILITARY INSTRUMENTS

Chong-pin Lin
12/18/2006

As the United States hedges against a potential military confrontation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Beijing has opted to circumvent Washington’s preparations by adopting a grand strategy that utilizes “extra-military instruments” to gradually diminish the preponderant influence of the United States. These instruments—economic aid, cultural contributions, legal compulsion and diplomatic coercion—transcend, but certainly do not exclude the use of military force. Indeed, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is, borrowing from the PLA’s descriptions of itself, “prepared but preferably unused” (bei er bu yong), and serves as the backbone of China’s extra-military instruments. While these instruments are primarily “soft,” their effects can often be “hard,” as illustrated by Beijing’s aggressive international strangulation of Taiwan’s “lebensraum” [1]. In constructing its new grand strategy, China appears to have infused elements of realpolitik into a number of its traditional objectives, with its priorities as follows: (1) maintain domestic stability at all cost; (2) cooperate with, rather than contradict the United States; (3) assist the growth and development of China’s neighbors, assure them of their security and win their friendship (fulin mulin anlin); (4) reunify Taiwan without war, reserving the use of force as a last resort; (5) cultivate Europe and Russia to serve as counterweights to the United States; and (6) fill in the post-Cold War power vacuums in Latin America and Africa.
 


Download link:https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7GUQTtcorbzZnZkZy13c0JHRWc

20100914 沈澤瑋 聯合早報 釣魚島事件

台學者： 撞船風波不難收拾

http://www.zaobao.com/special/hotspot/pages/hotspot100914a.shtml accessed September 15, 2010

《聯合早報》(2010-09-14)

沈澤瑋 報導

臺北特派員

    日本繼續扣押涉及釣魚島風波的中國船長，但釋放了14名中國漁民。受訪臺灣學者認為，日本這次放人的時間比過去快，主要是因美國、中國、日本微妙的三角互動，日本和美國在經濟上需要中國，而中國又採取“鬥而不破”的方針，所以釣魚島風波是短期迴圈的老戲碼，但不會鬧大到無法收拾。 

請注意:此訪問標題偏離內容主題,只是一種可能而已. 林中斌誌2010.9.10

林中斌：兩岸有可能對釣島主權聯手抗日

http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1014/4/0/2/101440233.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=101440233&mdate=0908105724
http://www.chinareviewnews.com 2010-09-08 10:57:23

20100826 全球火山爆發沒有增加？ 從
2000年開始 火山活動加速上升！

http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/liu653-blog/article?mid=7201&next=6969&l=f&fid=49 accessed September 10, 2010
http://www.nownews.com/2010/08/26/91-2640190.htm

引用自

王宗銘 Nownews 2010/08/26 2010/08/28 03:47

另類墾丁 Kenting Unexpected

林中斌 2010.9.6 Chong-Pin Lin

    印象裡的墾丁是沙灘、遊客、含海水味暖風的地方。2009年9月和2010年2月兩次故地重遊，我對它大為改觀。