林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

韓國半島的骨牌效應

accessed May 9, 2018

●韓國半島局勢轉變像推骨牌般的一發不可收拾。

●5/7-8習金二會秘密舉行，事後宣佈。

●之前說北京被邊緣化。嚴重誤判。

●兩韓統一，勢不可擋。

●北韓經濟第一，南韓安全第一。互補性高。

●北京已改念，支持兩韓統一。

●北京將獲半島無核化，薩德部署停滯或撤除。

●中日加速和解。

●東北亞趨勢中升美降。

http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20180508003899-260408?from=fb_share_mobile

Is Democracy Dying? ~ Foreign Affairs May/June 2018

accessed May 4, 2018

- 最新美國權威的"外交事務"雙月刊(2018年5/6月)整本主體是

"民主在死亡?全球報告"。

-- 主要文章有

*"大轉變:美國民主如何失敗?"

*"無安全感的時代:美國民主仍能自救嗎?"

*"民主世紀結束:專權政治在全球昇起"

*"有中國特色的專權政治:北京幕後的改革"

*"東歐的非自由式革命:一條走向民主墜落的漫長道路"

林中斌 試譯 2018.5.4

意涵：

-- 這本"民主在死亡?全球報告""外交事務"雙月刊彰顯了一項新趨勢：

-- 民主不再是理所當然的最好政治制度。民主是最好政治制度的說法在民主的西方也有爭議。

-- 即使在一度為世界民主模範的美國，即使在美國高層政治菁英圈子中，民主不再是毫無疑問天經地義的最好制度了。

-- 巧合的是與亓樂義先生合作的拙作"撥雲見日"，去年8月出版，已打光到這些主題包括

*美國民主問題

*東歐匈牙利總統奧班所提倡的"非自由式民主"

*中國特色的政體，即"北京模式"，外表專權，幕後改革。

林中斌 補充 2018.5.4

增至86成員 肯亞、巴紐入亞投行 from 旺報 2018.5.3

accessed May 3, 2018

AIIB members：86

(founded 2016 by China)

ADB members：67

(founded 1966 by the US)

亞投行2016成立，成員86

亞洲開發銀行1966成立，成員67

A Trade War the U.S. Is Actually Winning, for Now ~ New York Times April 27, 2018

accessed May 2, 2018

美國的貿易戰居優勢，目前如此 (以後呢？ 難說)

● 因為：貿易赤字和強勢貨幣是連體嬰。

佳作推薦！！(Author Lan Cao is a novelist and a professor of international economic law at Chapman University's Dale E. Fowler School of Law in Orange, California. She was born in Saigon in 1961. Two of her novels are "Monkey Bridge", and "The Lotus and the Storm")

林中斌 2018.5.2

● Triffin’s dilemma：Trade deficits and strong currency are connected.

● After 1974, the U.S. has been enjoying a strong currency, which is an “exorbitant privilege”

● A strong dollar makes American exports expensive to the rest of the world. American exports decline, imports increase, and the result is trade deficits.

● China is trying to make Renminbi a global reserve currency (a world’s leading currency). “This is a strategic priority for China, and it is willing to wait.”

● The author is warning Washington with subtlety by stating at the end：“While the president and his supporters raise doubts about open trade, the dollar’s supremacy is closely tied to it. There is nothing guaranteed about that status, or all the benefit that come with it.”

Chong-Pin Lin May 2, 2018

A Trade War the U.S. Is Actually Winning, for Now

By Lan Cao

Ms. Cao is a professor of international economic law.

April 26, 2018

The escalating trade war between the United States and China, with the Trump administration considering $100 billion in punitive tariffs in response to China’s $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs, obscures a more important source of conflict: China’s desire to someday establish the yuan as a global reserve currency, on a par with the dollar.

The dollar’s status is inextricably linked to international trade. Because the dollar reigns supreme in the trading system, other countries need to accumulate dollars. Most international trade is conducted using the dollar, even if the United States is not a party to the transaction.

The United States wasn’t always so dominant. After the 1971 decision to end the link between the value of the dollar and gold reserves, the dollar became a currency much like any other. But in 1974, the United States and Saudi Arabia struck an agreement in which the Saudis and the other Gulf states supported the dollar as the primary medium of exchange for oil exports. Thus, oil and other commodities are priced in dollars, so any country that buys oil must build up its dollar reserves to pay for it — mostly by exporting its goods and services so that it can receive dollars as payment.

Once established as a global reserve currency, the dollar has been kept strong by sustained demand for it, and a strong dollar makes American exports expensive to the rest of the world. American exports decline, imports increase, and a result is the trade deficit. Testifying before Congress in 1960, the economist Robert Triffin observed that the dollar’s global reserve status depends on the willingness of the United States to run trade deficits. This relationship, known as Triffin’s Dilemma, doesn’t always hold true (other countries have had reserve currencies and a trade surplus), but the American trade deficit with China, $375.2 billion last year, offers perhaps the best example of how a strong currency and trade deficits are connected.

Still, there are enormous benefits to being able to print paper money and have the world treat it as if it were gold. Other countries need American dollars, and they are willing to pay a premium to hold them. Valery Giscard d’Estaing, finance minister of France from 1962 to 1966, called this an “exorbitant privilege.” Once they have amassed those all-important dollars, countries use them to buy United States Treasury bonds. (China alone held $1.2 trillion dollars of United States government debt at the end of 2017.) This enormous global demand for American debt means that the United States can borrow at relatively low interest rates, financing its budget deficits away.

The “exorbitant privilege” extends to ordinary Americans, who have access to a vast supply of credit and can borrow to buy homes and cars at lower interest rates.

As the trade war rhetoric escalates, some raise the fear that China could sell off its dollar-denominated assets, which could trigger a rise in interest rates, inflation and possibly devaluation of the dollar. Even the threat of a sudden sell-off can stir up trouble in global currency markets. China could also diversify its cash reserves away from the dollar and acquire yen, euro or sterling instruments, or commodities such as gold. Indeed, China has already been accumulating gold, ranking as one of the world’s largest importers of it.

China and the United States are too closely economically intertwined via the dollar to make that a credible fear. United States treasuries are still the world’s safe haven of choice. And selling off American debt would cause the yuan to appreciate, which would put China’s exports at a disadvantage.

Still, China is clearly taking steps to ensure a larger role for its currency. In 2015, the yuan was designated by the International Monetary Fund as one of five elite currencies in the world, along with the dollar, the euro, the pound and the yen. China is putting in place a pilot program with Russia and Angola, in which it can buy oil with yuan instead of with dollars. As the biggest importer of crude oil in the world, China believes it has the purchasing power to push for settlement in yuan. Even Saudi Arabia, a stalwart American ally, is under increasing pressure to accept yuan for its oil trade. If the yuan does become a global reserve currency, China, too, could see its influence and economic power expand even further.

This is a strategic priority for China, and it is willing to wait. Although it is impossible to predict whether or when the dollar will be dethroned, history offers some clues: The pound sterling reigned supreme before the dollar gradually dislodged it. While the president and his supporters raise doubts about open trade, the dollar’s supremacy is closely tied to it. There is nothing guaranteed about that status, or all the benefits that come with it.

Lan Cao is a novelist and a professor of international economic law at Chapman University’s Dale E. Fowler School of Law in Orange, Calif.

川普在美國聲勢愈來愈旺。很可能連任。Trump is winning domestically.

accessed May 2, 2018

Most likely he will finish this term and may even get re-elected.

--共和黨國會競選人男女都在模仿他粗俗的風格。民主黨也跟進。

--成功的彈劾美國總統幾乎不能。歷史上沒發生過。

--連追查川普的特別檢察官穆勒都可能被他免職。

林中斌 2018.5.2

Trump is winning domestically.

Most likely he will finish this term and may even get re-elected.

●Not only the Republican candidates, both male and female, for the coming elections are mimicking the President in campaigning style, but also some Democrats.

-- Philippe Reines, a longterm adviser for Hillary, recently wrote "He (Trump) has no dignity. He leaves not attack unanswered. I spent 15 years recommending ignoring stupidity.... I was wrong."

--Martha McSally, a Republican running for the Arizona Senate seat was proud of having told Washington Politicians to “grow a pair of ovaries”.

(Jeremy Peters, "Borrowing Trump's Sound and Fury" International New York Times April 24, 2018) https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/us/politics/trump-republican-party.html

● It is almost impossible to unseat president Trump through impeachment, because “Enough of the public and the political class abhor impeachment.”

--“America has ever impeached only two presidents (Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998-99), but in both cases the Senate refused conviction, meaning that both men remained in office”. The threshold in the Senate for approving an impeachment is too high, 2/3 majority.

--Even Andrew Johnson’s political enemies refused to impeach him.

--Even as the Lewinsky situation unfolded, Bill Clinton’s job approval rate went up, not down.

-- Today, trying to impeach and remove Trump could boost his popularity.

(Charles Blow, “America abhors impeachment” INYT April 24, 2018)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/opinion/trump-impeachement-america.html

● As things stand now, the possibility of President Trump firing the Special Counsel Robert Mueller III and dismantle the latter’s office cannot be ruled out.

(John Tye and Mark Zaid, “Robert Mueller’s Last Resort” INYT April 28, 2018)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/opinion/robert-mueller-legal-whistleblowing.html

Chong-Pin Lin May 2, 2018

烽煙砲火下的校歌

accessed April 30, 2018

-- 1940年在昆明。中日戰爭砲火中。28歲自北平逃難來此的女青年為西南聯大/雲南附屬中學校歌填詞，她二弟作曲。

-- 1941年，女青年恨為女身不能從軍，認識空軍飛行軍官。一個月後，不顧父親反對，下嫁之。擇5月4日為婚期，紀念1919的54運動。

-- 1942年，5月7日嬰兒不足月早產。鄰居姑嫂睥見面如象牙毫無血色的大頭嬰，不禁搖頭。憂其不久於世。

-- 有幸昔之弱嬰，今將渡過75跨向76年。在下也。

-- 當時填詞愛國女青年，先母台大中文系教授張敬(清徽)。飛行軍官先父林文奎。當時作曲青年先二舅南開大學中文系主任張清常。

-- 感謝學姊哈佛大學圖書館先進楊慶儀掘出塵封的校歌提供紀念。

林中斌 2018.4.30

失聰復得記

林中斌 2018.4.18

accessed April 18, 2018

「你真的聽得見嗎？」

前幾天內人還在問。事情已經過了六十天了，她仍然不敢相信。

去年十月初的周六，我去宜蘭登山。回家後幾天內，右耳聽力急速退化。

回想起來，大概是當天淋了些雨。下山後趕公車，忘記馬上換乾衣服，著涼感冒，由耳鼻阻塞引起。即使如此解釋符合邏輯，但是仍然相當勉強。因為之前數十年感冒無數次，從未如此嚴重的影響聽力。

這意外事件給未來蒙上一層黑霧。稱之為人生小型危機並不為過。

因為左耳在過去廿多年逐漸衰退，聽力已幾乎完全喪失。之前全靠尚未失聰的右耳與人互動。

雙耳失聰的我如何擔負數月前已排定的行程--國際會議主題演講、媒體深度訪問、學術會議主持等？

裝助聽器吧！這就是人生。前生的業障啦！以前自己做的，現在自己受。認了！沒什麼好難過的。

自我反思後如此決定。

德國助聽器公司好意先借我試用高級產品兩週。他們遵行母公司規定，提醒顧客不要放棄治療，同時推薦一位附近診所的醫師。後者又推薦新店有規模醫院的大牌醫師。

於是，開始了一場長達四週，每次花耗上下午的耳科醫療折騰之旅。至今回想，猶如惡夢。

忙碌的大牌醫師，在就醫者掛號苦等之後才蒙召見。但是大牌時間寶貴，無暇細聽徵狀，無暇解釋久等才輪到的測試所得的數據，也無暇回答問題。內耳測試尤其令人難忘。執行護士說明不清，就醫者竟然苦躺床上一小時半，猶如在意識的大海中黑夜航行，茫然不知目的何在，也不知何時靠岸。

第四次就醫之後，醫師下最後診斷：內耳神經老化而且受損，醫院將請專人協助病患選購助聽器。意思是：醫療無望，但是你還要再來。

那是十二月中的事。

一位關心的年輕朋友得知如此的醫療「判決」，不服氣。他勸已認命的我找第二個意見。

「之前，我肩膀受傷。醫師說要開刀。您堅持我要避免開刀，以免斬斷了身體氣血的通路，一定要找第二個意見。後來，另一位醫師說不必開刀。靠療養和服用中藥，我的肩膀完全康復了。如今，您也應該找第二個意見。」

他見我毫無行動，於是積極打聽優良的耳科醫師。

今年一月底，他通過朋友安排我去亞東醫院看耳科主任陳光超醫師。那天，他們開車來接。盛情感人。我雖已不抱希望，但不得不「配合演出」。

電腦掛號，掌握時間。到醫院報到後，很快的進行測試，雖然儀器和項目多，但效率高，快速完成。

陳醫師態度友善熱情，稍作詢問，審視測試結果，便說：

「我不同意之前的診斷。讓我檢視你雙耳。」

他清理我外耳後，進行中耳抽水。

突然，雙耳都豁然開朗！

我對陪伴的內人說：「又可以聽音樂了!」

「我想你聽的是古典音樂，是嗎？

多聽沒錯。因為古典音樂高低頻率範圍廣闊，遠超過流行音樂。尤其是聽高頻會刺激聽神經，延遲老化。

根據十五篇研究報告，從事音樂的人聽神經老化比一般晚十年。這雖然不構成耳科領域裡的共識，但不妨嘗試。」

他說得有根據、有分寸。

整個過程不過一小時。

我回家後，頗不習慣。聽關門的聲音轟然大響，洗碗碟的聲音，尖銳刺耳。第二天共進早餐時，請內人說話不必如此大聲。出門後，抬頭查看天空是否有轟炸機或在打雷。其實只是風吹過廿多年失聰左耳外部渦輪摩擦出聲而已。

一週後，陳醫師出國演講(他是國際知名的耳科學者)。兩週後見陳醫師複診，他說以後不用來了。

後記：

●感謝青年朋友湯名暉先生費心尋醫、烏凌翔先生引見陳醫師並開車接送。

●隨著兩耳聽力恢復，今年一月突發而前所未有的暈眩症也在二月後自動痊癒。更妙的是，去年四月十一日半夜突發而也前所未有的缺氧症(panic attack 中文翻譯雖並不貼切為「恐慌症」)經過一年忍耐不適持續照舊登山後，如今不斷改進已接近痊癒。

●感謝內人永遠耐心永遠樂觀的陪伴協助。感謝虛空界無形力量的恩典與呵護。

Let's celebrate!

I can hear again.

accessed April 18, 2018

Let's celebrate!

I can hear again.

Chong-Pin Lin April 18, 2018

失聰復得!

慶祝啊!!

林中斌 2018.4.18

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6umanZrSCY&feature=share

夕陽鐘聲 Evening Bells

accessed April 19, 2018

夕陽鐘聲 Evening Bells

從俄羅斯靈魂深處流出的音樂。五十年來百聽不厭。每次都揪心動容。

林中斌 2018.4.19

For more than half a century, I have been moved by this melody ever since it came to me in Montreal on a longplay disc of balalaika and voice. This must be from the most beautiful depth of the suffering Russian soul.

Chong-Pin Lin April 19, 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWXdqrvOOf4&feature=share

Will China's New Trade/Debt
Diplomacy Strategy Reshape

The World?

accessed April 27, 2018

以下是《 國際經濟》雜誌今年年初邀稿下所提出之淺見。

敬請賜正。

林中斌 2018.4.27

Will China’s New Trade/Debt Diplomacy Strategy Reshape the World?

Chong-Pin Lin

Word count： 492 word limit：500 Due date ：February 16, 2018

Three factors suggest that China’s new strategy may succeed.

First, economy, rather than military might or political ideology, takes command in the 21st century. In democracies, economic performance has long swayed the voters in elections. Since the former Soviet Union, notorious for its anti-democratic governance, collapsed in 1991 due to its unsustainable economy, political leaders of all governments, democratic or otherwise, have equated the economic viability of their countries to their own political future. That explained the 2017 turn-about of British Prime Minister Theresa May from suspension to approval on the Hinkley Point C nuclear reactor project. It was heavily financed by China, which caused a political backlash May must face but eventually overcame. The same applies to Sri Lanka’s President Maithripala Sirisena on the Hambandota Port project which, launched by his predecessor in cooperation with China, was first suspended in 2015 and then approved in 2017 for a 99-year lease to Beijing for $292 million due to the country’s mounting debt to China. The Port has potentials of becoming a naval base for China, which raised security concerns of India, Japan and the U.S. Given time, economic benefits offered by China to a recipient country may just overtake political and security reservations.

Second, China’s skillful blend of the hard and the soft prongs in foreign policy makes its “debt diplomacy” more effective than expected. With the “Belt Road Initiative” under the way, Beijing’s unsaid goal seems to be dominating “Eurasiafrica”— the landmass cluster of Europe, Asia and Africa -- without war. When China was poor, it was prone to warfighting. As China began to rise, it has become averse to bloody conflict. The People’s Republic fought five wars from its founding in 1949 to 1979 when Deng Xiaoping launched the modernization drive. From 1979 to 2018, China has fought no war except the 1988 clash with Vietnam over the Johnson Reef in the South China Sea.

China’s grand strategy in the new century is to deploy “extra-military” instruments -- such as economic, diplomatic, and cultural ones – on the front, with the rapidly advancing military capabilities on the back, which allows China to quietly expand its influence far and wide while encountering minimum resistance. The extra-military approach transcends ,but not excludes, the military ones. The idea is reminiscent of Teddy Roosevelt’s adage, “Hold a big stick and speak softly”.

Third, China’s internal economic obstacles are rooted in flawed policy, which in turn has stemmed from its problematic officialdom. Clean officials tended to be incompetent, while competent officials, corrupt. At the 19th Party Congress in October 2017, China’s President Xi Jinping emerged the strongest leader since Mao Zedong. After five years of persistent and pervasive anti-corruption campaign, Xi has appointed clean and competent officials in key positions. The Harvard educated Liu He, touted as “the brain' behind Xi’s economic overhaul”, has disagreed with Premier Li Keqiang’s conservative approach may succeed in reining in China’s soaring debt without creating a collapse in the market.

Chong-Pin Lin is a former deputy defense minister of Taiwan and co-author of a recent book Sunlight Through the Clouds：Cracking the Taiwan-U.S.-China Complex in Chinese.