習近平對台灣的「文鬥」

2017/10/28 自由時報

http://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1147062

●這篇社論出現自由時報以往未見或少見的論調：對於中國實力上昇重視而非以「中國遲早經濟下滑或內亂，不足以懼」

●社論說:「台灣的頭家也要自問：堅持台灣主權獨立國家，遭到中國以蠻力無情欺壓，而導致國家尊嚴受挫、國計民生連帶受損，大家願意概括承受那些窮台力道嗎？」

林中斌 2017.10.28
 

探討蔡習會

兩岸要突破 專家：得靠密使

2017/10/29 大紀元 江禹嬋

https://www.epochtimes.com.tw/n230754/%E5%85%A9%E5%B2%B8%E8%A6%81%E7%AA%81%E7%A0%B4-%E5%B0%88%E5%AE%B6-%E5%BE%97%E9%9D%A0%E5%AF%86%E4%BD%BF.html
 

以下為2017.10.29 大紀元發表對在下有關蔡習會可能性的訪問。
題目或改為"兩岸要突破 高層管道有需要"

敬請賜教。

並請參閱：

●2017.10.12日聯合報報導 "川普請益季辛吉會後大談秘密外交"北韓軍武威脅增| 全球| 聯合新聞網

https://udn.com/news/plus/10172/2751912

美國總統川普下個月將訪問亞洲，他十日在白宮會晤美中關係重要推手、前國務卿季辛吉，利用機會向季辛吉請益。

●新華澳報 2017.10.8 社論 "十九大兩岸模式，算盤能否打得響？

http://www.waou.com.mo/news_b/shownews.php?lang=cn&id=23938

林中斌 2017.10.29
 

習近平找回傳統文化 有助兩岸對話

2017/10/26 大紀元 郭曜榮

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/09/2003679993

傳統文化有助兩岸對話是袁易教授說的，不是在下說的。

在下側重習近平用傳統文化穩定社會，以及全家的佛緣(記者引述拙作"撥雲見日"。)

林中斌 2017.10.26

摩洛哥照片

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=884378388393990&id=100004655108609&pnref=story

這是50年前在美國唸研究所時認識的朋友，用兩張我拍的摩洛哥照片畫成水彩而被錄取參展俄亥俄州芬徳雷畫展。亦有榮焉。

林中斌 2017.10.26

My good friend from five decades ago at Bowling Green State University painted three water colors that have been accepted by Findlay Art Show, among which two were inspired by my photos taken in Morocco, October 2016. What luck for me!

Chong-Pin Lin October 26, 2017
 

美國中國專家預判十九大報告提統一時間表並對台強硬

US China experts predicted a unification timetable and tougher measures on Taiwan in Xi Jinping's 19 Party Congress political report

2017/9/1 旺報 劉永祥

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170901000698-260309

accessed Sep 1, 2017

Tsai stance on PRC policy expected later

Chung Li-hua, Taipei Times, October 9, 2017

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/09/2003679993

accessed Oct 23, 2017

十九大及十八大港澳台政治報告

●2017年 10月9日，前美國在台協會的主席，美國資深兩岸問題專家 卜睿哲(Richard Bush)博士預言: "19大召開時，習近平將會提出解決台灣問題的期限"。

9天後，習近平的19大政治報告出爐，他有提出解決台灣問題的期限嗎？

●2017年9月1日，美國前中情局中國事務專家張克斯 (Christopher Johnson) 說習近平對蔡英文政府不信任，而且"永遠也不會"。十九大後習近平固權, 會對台更為強硬。習近平的19大政治報告出爐，除了對反獨更為周全 (六個任何)以外，沒有武統，也沒有其他強硬說詞。倒是"骨肉親情、血濃於水" "與大陸同胞同等待遇" "分享大陸發展機遇"等說了一些。

●十九大及十八大政治報告中港澳台部分的文字附在下面，請參考。

林中斌 2017.10,23

●On October 9, 2017 "....former American Institute in Taiwan chairman Richard Bush’s prediction that China would introduce a deadline for a resolution on Taiwan during the congress."

On October 18, in the 19th Party Congress political report, did Xi Jinping mention " a deadline for a resolution on Taiwan"?

●On September 1, 2017，former CIA China affairs expert Christopher Johnson, predicted that Xi would turn harder on Taiwan after the 19th Party Congress.

Quoted by Chong-Pin Lin October 23, 2017
 

牛津大學80歲佛學教授的心得

● 以下是牛津大學八十歲教授研究巴利文及佛經後所說。

如：當我說我是佛教徒時：不是說，以愛的發心绑架他人！而是為了用周到的智慧，在隨顺眾生中自利利他！

林中斌 2017.10.21

探討「蔡習會」：蔡的克制和善意 北京讀到  

https://udn.com/news/story/6656/2761265

accessed October 20, 2017

●以下是《聯合晚報》記者周佑政在週一2017年10月16日傍晚對在下所作之訪問。於週二10月17日10：28登載上網。
●下一段文字，在10月18日上午習近平唸完十八大報告後，應已證實。他沒有提統一時間表，也沒有提武統：
『「林中斌表示，部分美國與中國大陸學者認為，19大後中共對台政策將「更嚴」，甚至會有「統一時間表」，他不太贊同這種看法。因為即使是「討論式」的統一時間表，也讓中共不光彩，「沒能力做到，為何要訂時間表？」至於「武統」大陸官方現已很少提及，依習近平過去的行事風格，「要是做得到就直接做了，根本不用講。」』
●下一段文字，與在下原意稍有出入：「第三，蔡英文自2015年之後，對兩岸不斷累積善意、謹慎與零意外。第四，北京對蔡英文的作為不會沒有感受，因此會累積蔡在兩岸上的政治資本。」
●「北京對蔡英文的作為不會沒有感受」。此語氣弱了些，似乎暗示在下主觀臆測。其實，在下所說有剪報憑據。包括兩類：
●一，蔡「善意、謹慎、零意外、不挑釁」的實例。二、北京感受到蔡「善意、謹慎、零意外、不挑釁」的實例。敬請參考以下所貼的簡報圖片。
●此外，《新華澳(門)報》主筆富權在2017.10.6社論「十九大後兩岸新模式」中點出習近平報對蔡英文「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」感受到，而北京對蔡也留有餘地。以下為摘錄：
“--從目前情況看，蔡英文一方面拒絕承認「九二共識」，另一方面卻又實行「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」策略，不象陳水扁那樣是個「麻煩製造者」。
--其實從一定角度看，就在蔡英文上台後的這段時間內，習近平要面對的困難不少，包括內部的軍改、打貪，應對幾隻能量極大的「大老虎」；對外的南海仲裁、釣魚島、朝核等問題。蔡英文實行「不挑釁、不刺激、零意外」，沒有給對岸增添麻煩，使得北京高層可以中精力處理各種問題。因此，「武統論」一出來，很快就銷聲匿跡。
--而且，直到現在，包括習近平在內的高層，尚未有直接點名批評蔡英文，陸委會也是在台灣當局所有公權力機關中，唯一沒有被大陸官方報導中打上「引號」的機構。這似是要保留一個迴旋空間。”

林中斌 2017.10.20

林中斌：陸對台將採兩手策略 未來「蔡習會」有可能

2017-10-17 10:28聯合報 記者周佑政╱即時報導
https://udn.com/news/story/6656/2761265 下載 2017.10.20

中共19大明天登場，對於19大後大陸對台政策的走向，曾任國防部副部長的學者林中斌表示，中共將對台採取「兩手策略」，「硬」的部分包括軍機軍艦繞台、減少我邦交國數目，「軟」的方面將持續以「買台」與「窮台」牽制台灣。林中斌也提及7大因素，表示未來「蔡習會」可能成真。

林中斌表示，部分美國與中國大陸學者認為，19大後中共對台政策將「更嚴」，甚至會有「統一時間表」，他不太贊同這種看法。因為即使是「討論式」的統一時間表，也讓中共不光彩，「沒能力做到，為何要訂時間表？」至於「武統」大陸官方現已很少提及，依習近平過去的行事風格，「要是做得到就直接做了，根本不用講。」

林中斌說，中共19大後將對台採取「兩手策略」，「硬」的部分包括軍機軍艦繞台、減少我邦交國數目，陸方不會公開承認對台有不友善企圖，「而是會讓台灣自己感受」。「軟」的方面將持續以「買台」與「窮台」牽制台灣。

他指出，買台是透過一些作為，讓台灣某些政黨在大陸有生意的金主，告訴台灣政治人物，勿將兩岸關係搞得太壞，「因此會看到某個時期，台灣政治人物跳出來比賽，要友中、親中、知中、和中」。窮台則是透過優渥條件，吸引台灣年輕人、企業家與技術人才赴陸。

林中斌更認為，有7大因素，讓未來「蔡習會」成為可能，首先習近平萬丈雄心，絕不允許2022年之前，在兩岸成績上交白卷。其次19大後習的權力鞏固，內部已少有掣肘因素，可以拿出對台更大開大闔的做法。第三，蔡英文自2015年之後，對兩岸不斷累積善意、謹慎與零意外。第四，北京對蔡英文的作為不會沒有感受，因此會累積蔡在兩岸上的政治資本。

此外是美國因素，林中斌指出，美國總統川普比起過去的政府，更依賴習近平，主因是習近平對限制北韓有實際作為，美國即使心裡不願見到兩岸政治磋商，但也沒能力從中作梗。最後則是大陸與鄰近亞洲國家，有許多外交突破，情勢在轉變，「蔡英文一定也看到了」。

前國防部副部長林中斌。圖／聯合報系資料照

九寨溝，都江堰，成都

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7Xd2haDYGE&feature=share

accessed October 19,2017

●為了配樂，煩惱兩天。古箏版的滄海一聲笑不夠大氣；古典音樂 Rustle of Spring，聽久了會想跑廁所。今天聽了一早上的大提琴和 adagio (慢板)，最後林先生建議配『與狼共舞』的主題曲，Bingo！

PS. 攝影為我們合作

As U.S. Confronts Internet’s Disruptions, China Feels Vindicated

Steven Lee Myers and Sui-Lee Wee The New York Times, October 16, 2017

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/16/world/asia/china-internet-cyber-control.html

accessed October 19, 2017

●紐約時報報導(不是人民日報報導):
●美國現在束手無策。面對假新聞、駭客、外國滲透網路干擾選舉(指俄羅斯)，不知如何應付。
●中國一向嚴格控制網路，還被西方指責。 它現在覺得雪冤了。
●紐約時報，自由派大報，以前是批評中國言論不自由最力的媒體。 現在怎麼啦?
1. 被北京買了?
2. 觀察到以前沒注意的角度?
3. 其他.....。

林中斌 試節譯 2017.10.19

HULUNBUIR, China — In the United States, some of the world’s most powerful technology companies face rising pressure to do more to fight false information and stop foreign infiltration.

China, however, has watchdogs like Zhao Jinxu.

From his small town on the windswept grasslands of the Inner Mongolia region of China, Mr. Zhao, 27, scours the internet for fake news, pornography and calls to violence. He is one of a battalion of online “supervisors” whom Weibo, one of China’s biggest social media platforms, announced last month it would hire to help enforce China’s stringent limits on online content.

For years, the United States and others saw this sort of heavy-handed censorship as a sign of political vulnerability and a barrier to China’s economic development. But as countries in the West discuss potential internet restrictions and wring their hands over fake news, hacking and foreign meddling, some in China see a powerful affirmation of the country’s vision for the internet.

“This kind of thing would not happen here,” Mr. Zhao said of the controversy over Russia’s influence in the American presidential election last year.

Besides Communist Party loyalists, few would argue that China’s internet control serves as a model for democratic societies. China squelches online dissent and imprisons many of those who practice it. It blocks foreign news and information, including the website of The New York Times, and promotes homegrown technology companies while banning global services like Facebook and Twitter.

At the same time, China anticipated many of the questions now flummoxing governments from the United States to Germany to Indonesia. Where the Russians have turned the internet into a political weapon, China has used it as a shield.

In fact, when it comes to technology, China has prospered. It has a booming technology culture. Its internet companies rival Facebook and Amazon in heft. To other countries, China may offer an enticing top-down model that suggests that technology can thrive even under the government’s thumb.

“It doesn’t matter how efficient the internet is,” said Zhu Wei, deputy director of the Communications Law Research Center at the China University of Political Science and Law, which advises the government on internet laws. “It won’t work without security.”

China is not resting on its laurels.

In the weeks leading up to the major party congress that opens in Beijing on Wednesday, the country’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has issued a raft of new regulations.

One, which took effect last week, holds the creators of online forums or group chats responsible for their users’ comments.

Another bans anonymous users, a blow at the bots and deceptive accounts — like those on Facebook and Twitter — that distributed false stories aimed at American voters.

“If our party cannot traverse the hurdle presented by the internet, it cannot traverse the hurdle of remaining in power,” a department of the cyberspace administration wrote in a top party journal last month.

The article was in keeping with President Xi Jinping’s early recognition of the power of the internet. Mr. Xi created and empowered the cyberspace administration, which has subsumed many of the overlapping agencies that once governed content in cyberspace.

The administration is now seen as an institution as important as the defense ministry. Since last year, it has been led by Xu Lin, 54, a party technocrat and former propaganda official, who, like other influential officials who previously worked beside Mr. Xi in Shanghai, has soared through the ranks.

Samm Sacks, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the cyberspace administration was a core part of Mr. Xi’s vow to make China a cyber superpower, on par with the United States.

“There’s a recognition that technology has advanced more quickly than the government’s ability to control it,” Ms. Sacks said. Russia’s interference with Facebook, to cite only one example, was “justification for exactly what they are doing here.”

China’s homegrown internet companies are key to its top-down approach. Tech firms are expected to keep content on file for 60 days and report to the police any forbidden content. The government is acquiring small equity stakes in some tech companies in exchange for board seats, giving it a direct role in the governance of new internet titans.

The tech firms also face tight penalties if they fail to keep users in line. In September, the cybersecurity administration imposed fines on social media platforms owned wholly or in part by three of China’s biggest internet companies — Tencent Holdings, the Alibaba Group and Baidu — for failing to stop the circulation of fabricated rumors, violence and pornography. (Companies can be fined up to $76,000 per offense, and have their business licenses canceled, if they cannot prevent the transmission of banned content.)

Human rights observers worry that the crackdown may have a chilling effect on political speech that is already tightly curbed. Last month, for example, the police raided the home of a university professor, Liu Pengfei, who had hosted a current-affairs forum on Tencent’s WeChat software, one of the world’s most popular messaging apps.

In exchange for accepting tight controls, China internet companies have been allowed to grow while their foreign rivals were shut out of the country. They can now claim their own technology successes. Tencent’s WeChat has transformed social life in China: People use it to chat, pay bills, transfer money, book cabs and hook up romantically.

China is now embarking on an ambitious project to dominate fields like artificial intelligence, and some say China could be at an advantage. It has more than 700 million internet users, and it doesn’t have a robust legal framework to deal with data privacy intrusions. That makes it easier for companies to harness user data — which is core to developing A.I. technology.

Still, China’s advantage could be double-edged. Chinese internet companies have struggled to expand abroad, which experts say stems in part from their dependence on their government.

“To a large extent, the competitive advantage is the political relationship they have with the government there and that’s not something you can carry across borders,” said Lokman Tsui, an assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Moreover, not all of the new restrictions have been welcomed here. Some of the companies — and internet users — balked at tightened enforcement of rules requiring users of social media platforms to provide their real identities to the companies (although they may still use online pseudonyms). Weibo’s announcement that it was seeking 1,000 recruits to become supervisors to report illegal content online — the definitions of which can be expansive — was met by derision on its own site.

“Online and offline, Big Brother is watching,” wrote one user, who used the handle mingxinjianxing.

But when it comes to the controversy over Russia’s intervention, there has been little discussion here. Among the few who are discussing it on Weibo, some expressed shock that the United States does not censor information shared on social media platforms.

Mr. Zhao, the young volunteer on Weibo, is typical of those here who believe government control is justified.

In a restaurant called Europa, Mr. Zhao — who declined to disclose details of where and how he works — described China’s system not as “Big Brother” so much as a younger brother, which he is, protecting children, like those of his sister, from harmful material.

“Even though the internet is virtual, it is still part of society,” he added. “So in any space I feel no one should create pornographic, illegal or violent posts.”

In his new capacity, he scours Weibo in search of the lurid and illicit. Some posts, he explained, are thinly veiled solicitations for pornography or prostitution, including one message he reported to the police the other day for using what he said was a euphemism for selling sex.

When he reports abuse, it is the police who follow up. He excitedly displayed his smartphone to show the latest of his more than 3,000 followers on Weibo: the division of the Beijing police that monitors the internet.

“Normally, if you don’t do bad things, you don’t get followed by the police,” he said. “I think this — for someone who has been online for so many years — is really special.”

中國為啥不打？真相終於曝光！舉國沸騰！！

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX6XbsHXlCo&feature=share

accessed October 15, 2017

●為何不會打台灣?
●為何中日不會不免一戰?
●為何中美打不起來?
●為何一帶一路走得通?
●為何蔡習會有可能?

敬請卓參。

林中斌 2017.10.15