林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Testing the limits of Western ideals

SERGE SCHMEMANN, The New York Times, Sep 14, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/14/world/europe/a-system-buffeted-by-the-storms-of-history.html?_r=0

 accessed Sep 17, 2015 

l  西方民主遭遇困難，紐約時報編輯做序介紹一系列專文專論

China Flexes Tech Muscles Before a State Visit

PAUL MOZUR and JANE PERLEZ, The New York Times, Sept 8, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/09/science/china-flexes-tech-muscles-before-state-visit-with-meeting-of-industry-giants.html?_r=0

  accessed Sept 10, 2015

習近平網路小組負責人盧煒顯然是規劃執行此絕招之人。9月23日西雅圖之科技會議以北京之”超軍事手段”—經濟—打破華府將制裁中國之陣勢。

林中斌 2015.9.13

中日戰爭史與和解史並重

2015/08/30 亞洲週刊 江迅

   accessed Aug 30, 2015

1992年左右，北京人民日報編輯主任馬立誠公開表示對日方針應以前瞻和作為主跨越二代之恩怨。馬被輿論圍剿遁往香港。今日馬已回北京。以下是他與眾不同之觀點，值得參考。

林中斌 2015.9.13

自七二年邦交正常化到二零零八年，日本政府就戰爭問題向中國做了二十五次道歉，表示深刻反省。

周恩來曾說，六十年積怨和兩千年友好往來相比，畢竟是短暫的。

毛澤東說：「日本民族是一個偉大的民族，日本人民是勇敢的、勤勞的、智慧的人民，我們希望同日本建立友好關係。」

截止去前，日本企業對華投資總額為一千億美元，在華日系企業約二萬三千家，總計雇用中國員工一千萬人。日本政府從一九七九年起向中國提供ODA貸款，到二零零七年，貸款總額三百五十億美元，佔中國接受外國政府貸款總額四成。ODA貸款中，九成為低息貸款，貸款利率僅為百分之零點七九至百分之三點五，償還期為三十年至四十年。

自一九七二年恢復邦交以來，日本是支持中國現代化建設出力最多的國家。

Refugees who could be us

Nicholas Kristof, The New York Times, Sept 4, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/opinion/sunday/nicholas-kristof-refugees-who-could-be-us.html

 accessed Sept 7, 2015

Watching the horrific images of Syrian refugees struggling toward safety, I think of other refugees. Albert Einstein. Madeleine Albright. The Dalai Lama.

And my dad.

In the aftermath of World War II, my father swam the Danube River to flee Romania and become part of a tide of refugees that nobody much cared about. Fortunately, a family in Portland, Ore., sponsored his way to the United States, making this column possible.

If you don’t see yourself or your family members in those images of today’s refugees, you need an empathy transplant.

The new romantics

David Brooks, The New York Times, Sept 5, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/04/opinion/david-brooks-the-new-romantics-in-the-computer-age.html

  accessed Sept 5, 2015

 電腦不久將可取代人擔任技術性的工作，包刮財務分析、法律文件處理等等。相形之下，人際關係的才能(電腦無法取代)將變得更有價值。其中”同理心”將變成非常重要。青年朋友若不讀經典小說(三國演義、基督山恩仇記等…)會落於職場的弱勢地位。

林中斌 2015.9.13

         Computers will soon be able to do many of the cognitive tasks taught in places like law schools and finance departments.

         Empathy becomes a more important workplace skill.

Trump’s America

DOUGLAS MARTIN, The New York Times, Sept 5, 2015

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21663225-why-donald-dangerous-trumps-america

 川普的弱點是講話前後不一致。他的強項有二。一是財力雄厚，二是共和黨競爭者多，川普不需要絕對多數(超過50%)，只要相對多數即可出現成為總統候選人。

林中斌 2015.9.5

         First, as a billionaire, he will not run out of money to finance his campaign. Second, he faces so many Republican opponents that he could grab the nomination with only a modest plurality of the vote

China’s expanding global influence

Macquarie; Bernstein Research; USDA; World Coal Association; Oxford Institute for Energy Studies; World Bank; IMF

accessed Aug 31, 2015

Japan’s plutonium problem

Peter Wynn Kirby, The New York Times, Aug 16, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/17/opinion/japans-plutonium-problem.html

  accessed Aug 17, 2015

 這是多數人忽略的問題：日本擁有47頓鈽，而安全儲藏是個大問題。

What drives the heroes

Erez Yoeli and David Rand, The New York Times, Aug 28, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/30/opinion/the-trick-to-acting-heroically.html

  accessed May 25, 2015

在危急狀況下救人的英雄行為大多是直覺的衝動而未經利害分析。

Chong-Pin Lin, “Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Struggle without Breaking”

Asian Survey May/June 2015 pp. 478 -501

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2CA5YyEY_eVZGJERl8zTTdTc0k/view?pli=1

  accessed August 14, 2015

This May/June 2015 Asian Survey article entitled "Behind Rising East Asian Maritime Tensions with China: Strugggle without Breaking" is an invited contribution by Asian Survey based on a keynote speech at the September 2012 U.C. Berkeley conference on South China Sea. The article was published on August 8, 2015, about three years after the speech was delivered.

The non-mainstream views presented in 2012 -- such as " struggle without breaking", "toughness abroad draws domestic applause", that a Sino-Japan Diaoyus/Senkakus conflict won’t happen, the two-faced US policy in East Asia, the budding/rising accommodation school in the U.S., the hedging of China's neighbors, the Bo Xilai link to China's post-2009 rising assertiveness -- have remained largely non-mainstream today. However, they have survived the test of three years of time.

The article contains 72 footnotes (usually 40 footnotes as stipulated by Asian Survey), over 10,000 words (usually 8,000/9,000 words for AS).

Chong-Pin Lin August 11, 2015

這一篇柏克萊大學出版的Asian Survey 期刊在 2015年5/6月期登載的拙文 "與中國在東亞上升的海事爭端真相: 鬥而不破" 在今年8月8日出版。那是根據2012年9月在加州柏克萊大學的學術會議裡的主題演說，由Asian Survey 邀稿。

文中呈現2012年許多非主流的看法如 -- 鬥而不破、對外強硬對內收割、中日釣島戰不會爆發，美國在東亞的兩面性、美國調適派的萌芽和崛起、中國鄰國的兩面下注、2009年後中國開始的對外強硬和薄熙來的因素-- 如今仍為非主流。但已經過三年時間的考驗。

此文含72腳註(通常Asian Survey 限定40, 而作者初稿原有過百的腳註), 1萬多字(通常限定8千/9千字)。

敬請賜教。林中斌2015.8.11

U.S.A, land of limitations?

Nicholas Kristof, The New York Times, August 9, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/opinion/sunday/nicholas-kristof-usa-land-of-limitations.html

 accessed August 14 , 2015

在美國，社會低層20%的小孩一生能爬至上層20%的人只有4%，在英國，有12%可上爬至上層20%，美國這大國的弱點是社會問題。    林中斌 2015.8.10

Stock Markets Vex China's Leaders

YASHENG HUANG, The New York Times, August 6, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/07/opinion/yasheng-huang-stock-markets-vex-chinas-leaders.html?_r=0

 accessed August 14, 2015

什麼力量使習李2013所提之”新常態”在股災時被推翻? 黃亞生是MIT的教授及商學院副院長。大陸留美學者。無明確政治立場，此篇分析明晰，但勾出上述的疑問。

This is an in-depth, unbiased analysis of China's stock market disaster. The question I have after reading it is why Xi and Li, already having pronounced a policy of "new normal" (i.e. pursuing qualitative rather than quantitative economic growth) back in 2013, still allowed the government to wrongly encourage the boosting of stock market growth?

Is it because Xi and Li were ignorant economically, ill-advised? Or, is it because some "forces" were at work to sabotage the economic balance?

Robert Conquest, Historian Who Documented Soviet Horrors, Dies at 98

WILLIAM GRIMES, The New York Times, August 4, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/arts/international/robert-conquest-historian-who-documented-soviet-horrors-dies-at-98.html?_r=0

  accessed August 14, 2015

他出身英國上層社會，詩人、科幻迷，牛津畢業後參加共產黨。二次大戰從軍，負責情報，發現史大林屠殺兩千萬人民。之後成為蘇聯研究權威、歷史大師、極端反共。常常依據和別人一樣的資料做出與人不同的正確判斷。

他認為史大林的殘暴是列寧的延續，只不過變本加厲。也就是說，史大林並非特例或變種。

以上照片攝於2010年，他93歲。

New Bishop in China Signals Hope for Relations With Vatican

MICHAEL FORSYTHE, The New York Times, AUGUST 5, 2015

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/06/world/asia/china-ordains-bishop-joseph-zhang-yinlin.html?_r=2&referrer  accessed August 07, 2015

這是北京與梵蒂岡建交之前兆，由紐約時報報導更值得重視。

林中斌 2015.8.7

This NYT report augurs well for a possible unprecedented break-through for Beijing-Vatican diplomatic relation. We should remember that in May 2013, Xi Jinping received the Russian orthodox bishop which was unprecedented for an atheist Chinese Communist Party.

Chong-Pin Lin  Aug. 7 2015

Can China stand on its own?

-A History of Competence Sets China Apart

DAVID DOLLAR, The New York Times, JULY 27, 2015

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/07/27/can-china-stand-on-its-own/a-history-of-competence-sets-china-apart  accessed August 07, 2015

世界銀行之前負責中國投資之官員 David Dollar 的看法值得重視。他強調中國”有效管理”和歷史上經濟之潛力。

林中斌 2015.8.7

This is an unusual view of a former World Bank official who had worked inside China for 20 years.

Chong-Pin Lin  Aug. 7 2015

中日軍機空域行動規範曝光

2015/07/26 亞洲週刊

accessed August 7, 2015

一般被媒體忽視的中日官方/半官方安全對話已在進行。

林中斌 2015.8.7

Confucius says, Xi does

The Economist, JULY 25, 2015

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21659753-communist-party-turns-ancient-philosophy-support-confucius-says-xi-does  accessed August 07, 2015

西方媒體終於注意到我在今年春天”心靈的文藝復興”PPT演講所提到之習近平已公開三次提倡孔、孟之學。

林中斌 2015.8.7

 Western media has finally taken note of how Xi Jinping had publicly promoted the teachings of Confucius, Mencius, etc.

Chong-Pin Lin  Aug. 7, 2015

 ”心靈的文藝復興”PPT演講連結：

http://blog.yam.com/CPLin/article/90114501

Arctic Sea Ice Rebounded—But the Melting Hasn’t Stopped

JUSTIN WORLAND, Times, JULY 21, 2015

http://time.com/3965996/arctic-sea-ice-melting/  accessed August 07, 2015

北極冰連續兩個夏天2013&2014面積增加，科學家有些困惑。全球溫度不是持續上升嗎？

林中斌 2015.8.7

Who Lost China?

DAVID HALE, The International Economy, Spring 2015

Major trading partners of China now number 124 while those of the US, only 76.

全世界有124個國家以中國為最大貿易夥伴，同時只有76國以美國為最大貿易夥伴。

林中斌 2015.7.20

China Embraces the Markets

The Economist, JULY 11, 2015

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21657395-panicked-response-tumbling-stocks-casts-doubt-pace-reform-china-embraces accessed July 20, 2015

倫敦經濟學人說在中國股災表象之下，中國經濟依然實在，銀行穩定。這是北京大力救股市之前所說的。

林中斌 2015.7.20