林中斌 部落格 / Blog Chong-Pin Lin

Keynote speaking at Invite Taiwan conference, Kuala Lumpur

l  On February 26, 2016, SinoPac Securities (永豐金證券) invited me to deliver the only keynote speech on the prospect of cross-strait relation and Taiwan political/Economic development to potential Malaysian investors on May 4 in Kuala Lumpur.

l  My concern was if I could speak independent of any “party line” without any political constraint. They said yes. I then accepted the invitation.

l  My topic was: ”The May 20 speech: Taiwan’s Economic and Political prospect after Tsai Ing-Wen’s Presidential Inauguration”.

l  My opening remarks and the power point presentation are attached.

 Opening

Chong-Pin Lin, The May 20 Speech  May 4, 2016

Good morning, ladies and gentleman.

I will talk about a subject of gravity which evokes wide-spread apprehension.

To balance that, let me share with you a sunrise picture I took forty years ago in Glacier National Park, Montana, the United States.

I hope that you like it.

“The earth will shake, and the mountain, tremble” said Chinese president Xi Jinping on March 4, 2015, “if the next leader in Taiwan does not accept ‘the 1992 consensus’ ”.

In 1992, delegates across the Taiwan Straits negotiated and agreed to disagree. Both accepted the idea of one China yet with different interpretations.

Madame Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party that is known to advocate Taiwanese independence either explicitly or implicitly, will be inaugurated as President of Taiwan on May 20. However, she has not fully embraced ‘‘the 1992 consensus’’ to Beijing’s satisfaction.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s countermeasures on Taiwan have already begun.

-On March 17, Gambia that previously recognized Taiwan until two years ago was formerly accepted by Beijing to establish diplomatic ties.

-The number of Mainland tourists to Taiwan, a major source of Taiwan’s income, has been slashed by almost half.

-On April 13, arrested Taiwanese suspects in the Kenyan phone fraud were sent directly to China instead Taiwan, their home country.

-On April 19, Taiwan was rejected from the OECD meeting on steel production.

-As of today, Taiwan has not received the invitation to attend the annual World Health Organization convention on May 23-28.

If the trend continues. Taiwan’s already weakened economy with a projected GDP growth of no more than one percent in 2016 will plummet further. Taiwan may suffer an avalanche of broken diplomatic relations among the remaining 22 countries. By then, China’s military action on Taiwan will be police action, threatened by one Beijing professor.

The dark clouds are gathering over the horizon for Taiwan. Many are pessimistic on the cross-strait future prospects.

I take an exception for reasons commonly ignored.