Optimism over China

Keith Bradsher, International New York Times, September 13, 2017

accessed September 13, 2017

 

陸多項指標衰退

梁世煌 旺報 2017915

https://ctee.com.tw/News/Content.aspx?id=837287&yyyymmdd=20170915&h=76e777813df49eba605aaccd339dbc2b

accessed September 15, 2017

 

●中國經濟轉好。原來唱衰中國經濟言論轉向。

●表面原因是:1.人民幣強勢,匯率升值。

              2.股票市場上升。

●深層原因是:1.北京嚴格限制金錢外流。

              2.北京嚴打中國菁英在國際上浪費金錢購買公司、房地產等。

●外交效應:川普原先指責北京故意壓低人民幣對美金匯率,但因人民幣升值,此指責則失去力度。

林中斌 2017.9.15

 

”...Some vocal naysayers say the country has found ways to contain its problems.”

”Maybe China is the black swan and everything we know does not apply to China,” said Zhu Ning, a Tsinghua University economist who published a book last year critical of how the government has managed rising bank debt.

Chong-Pin Lin September 15, 2017

 

NYT唱旺中國經濟,北京自己唱衰中國經濟。為何?「能而示之不能」?

林中斌 2017.9.15

 

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Spies Like Us: To Understand Britain, Read Its Spy Novels

Economist, September 9, 2017

https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21728650-nature-establishment-agonies-decline-complicated-tug-patriotism-spy

accessed September 9, 2017

 

●英國間諜小說之大師作者如007的佛萊明(Ian Flemming)和《鍋匠、裁縫、士兵、間諜》的勒卡雷(John Le Carré)都實際上做過間諜。

20世紀英國文學大師也多做過間諜:如毛姆(William Somerset Maugham),格林(Graham Greene)

●最妙的是1992-96主持英國情報組織M15的女爵士雷明頓(Stella Rimington)退休後也開始寫間諜小說。

林中斌 摘錄 2017.9.15

 

Not only Ian Flemming of James Bond’s fame and John Le Carré who created George Smiley had been actual spies.

But also, great literature figures such as Somerset Maugham and Graham Greene had worked as spies.

Even Dame Stella Rimington, head of M15 in 1992-96, has taken to writing spy novels in retirement.

Chong-Pin Lin September 15, 2017

Ian Fleming

 

John le Carré

 

Somerset Maugham

 

Graham Greene

 

Dame Stella Rimington

 

FEW countries have dominated any industry as Britain has dominated the industry of producing fictional spies. Britain invented the spy novel with Rudyard Kipling’s dissection of the Great Game in “Kim” and John Buchan’s adventure stories. It consolidated its lead with Somerset Maugham’s Ashenden stories and Graham Greene’s invention of “Greeneland”. It then produced the world’s two most famous spooks: James Bond, the dashing womaniser, and George Smiley, the cerebral cuckold, who reappears this week in a new book.

 

What accounts for this success? One reason is the revolving door between the secret establishment and the literary establishment. Some of the lions of British literature worked as spies. Maugham was sent to Switzerland to spy for Britain under cover of pursuing his career as a writer. Greene worked for the intelligence services. Both Ian Fleming, the creator of Bond, and John le Carré, the creator of Smiley, earned their living as spies. Dame Stella Rimington, head of MI5 in 1992-96, has taken to writing spy novels in retirement. It is as if the secret services are not so much arms of the state as creative-writing schools.

 

Another reason is that British reality has often been stranger than fiction. The story of the “Cambridge spies”—Kim Philby, Anthony Blunt, Guy Burgess and the rest—is as far-fetched as it gets. One Soviet mole at the top of MI6 (Philby, who also worked for The Economist in Beirut); another even looking after the queen’s pictures (Blunt); a cover-up; a dash to the safety of the Soviet Union; larger-than-life characters such as the compulsively promiscuous and permanently sozzled Burgess.

There is also a more profound reason for Britain’s success. The spy novel is the quintessential British fictional form in the same way that the Western is quintessentially American. Britain’s best spy novelists are so good precisely because they use the genre to explore what it is that makes Britain British: the obsession with secrecy, the nature of the establishment, the agonies of imperial decline and the complicated tug of patriotism.

 

Britain is honeycombed with secretive institutions, particularly public schools and Oxbridge colleges, which have their own private languages. At Eton, for example, where Fleming was educated and Mr le Carré taught for a while, boys dress in tailcoats and call their teachers “beaks” and their terms “halves”. Walter Bagehot argued (approvingly) that Britain weaves duplicity into its statecraft. The constitution rests on a distinction between an “efficient” branch which governs behind the scenes, and a “dignified” branch which puts on a show for the people.

 

The British habitually wear masks to conceal their true selves. They put on different costumes for different roles in Bagehot’s theatre of state, and keep stiff upper lips to conceal their emotions. Mr le Carré (whose real name is David Cornwell) learned to put on a brave face at school because he was so embarrassed by his father, who was a professional confidence trickster. Greene learned the spymaster’s art when, as a pupil at Berkhamsted School, he acted as an informer for his father, the headmaster.

 

The British establishment is not only a perfect machine for producing secrets and lies. It also produces the mavericks and misfits who thrive in the secret world. Establishment types seem to come in two varieties: smooth conformists who do everything by the rules, and mavericks who break every rule but are nevertheless tolerated because they are members of the club. The first type is sent into the Foreign Office and the second into MI6. The best spy novels are like distorting mirrors in fairgrounds: by exaggerating this or that feature of Establishment Man, they allow the reader to understand the ideal form.

 

The other great theme in British spy novels is geopolitical decline. How can people who were “trained to Empire, trained to rule the waves”, as one of Mr le Carré’s characters puts it, bear to live in a world in which the waves are ruled by other powers and statecraft is reduced to providing fuel for the welfare state? Fleming’s novels are full of laments about Britain’s “crumbling empire” and its dependency-producing state. “You have not only lost a great empire,” Tiger Tanaka, a Japanese spy, tells Bond, “you have seemed almost anxious to throw it away with both hands.” Mr le Carré once described Britain as a country where “failed socialism is being replaced by failed capitalism”. The Circus, as he called the secret service’s headquarters, is a physical manifestation of decline: cramped, shoddy, reeking of rising damp, just one hasty repair away from collapse.

 

Nobody does it better

Why remain loyal to a country that has made such a mess of things and to an establishment soaked in hypocrisy? Mr le Carré’s traitors (like the Cambridge spies who inspired them) betray their country not for money but because they have transferred their patriotism to the Soviet Union. But what makes Britain’s best spy novels so good is that they toy with disillusionment only to reject it. For all its faults, they say, Britain is the best of a bad lot. Bond is so besotted with his country that he boasts that “British food is the best in the world”. For all his professed Europeanness in the new novel, Smiley is the model of a British gentleman.

 

And spying provides Britain with a way of reclaiming its greatness, by excelling in the most sophisticated form of foreign policy. The Americans have the money and the bluster, but the British have the brains to spend it wisely and restrain the Americans from going over the top. Felix Leiter, Bond’s opposite number in the CIA, admits that Bond is playing “in a bigger league” than he is. Smiley is more subtle than his “cousins” in America. The secret at the heart of the British spy novel is that Britain is much better than it seems. The writers agonise over decline and hypocrisy, only to conclude that the British are cleverer and more civilised than anybody else. A comforting illusion wrapped in a tale of disillusionment: you can’t get more British than that.

 

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拉古薩:自由繁榮和平的小國

林中斌 聯合報 201796A15

https://udn.com/news/story/7340/2684904

accessed September 7, 2017

 

●碧海、藍天、紅瓦、白崖。

南歐巴爾幹半島的古堡港都杜伯尼克(Dubrovnik)是近年世界旅遊熱點。各國人士,像潮水般的穿梭於光滑的白玉大道,進出王宮高牆,笙歌達旦。九○年初南斯拉夫內戰的彈孔和燒焦的樑棟已成褪色的記憶遠去。和平繁榮真是美好!

這獲得「亞得里亞海之珠」美稱的渡假勝地曾是「拉古薩共和國」(Republic of Ragusa 以下簡稱拉古薩)所在地。其歷史(一三五八至一八○八)長達四百五十年,壽命超過了漢朝(四二二年)、唐朝(二八九年)、宋朝(三一九年)、明朝(二七六年)、清朝(二六八年)

拉古薩靠航海貿易立國,不靠武力,但在周邊強權覬覦下維持獨立,享有自由、和平與繁榮。它立國的格言遍示於國門和船隊國旗上¬:「天下金買,自由不賣。」它屹立不搖的秘訣何在?

●謙遜中立的外交: 拉古薩建國之前曾是當時海上強權威尼斯的領土,但人民渴望自由,日益不滿。一三五八年,威尼斯敗於陸上強權匈牙利。拉古薩的貴族們在匈牙利的保護下獨立建國,拉古薩名義上是匈牙利的屬國,向匈牙利進貢,但實際上充分自主。

一四五八年,匈牙利敗於鄂圖曼帝國。於是,信奉天主教的拉古薩成為信奉伊斯蘭教的鄂圖曼帝國的屬國。雖然每年進貢,拉古薩依然自主,商船掛自己國旗,可任意與他國簽約。此外,拉古薩商船在鄂圖曼帝國勢力範圍內航行無阻,享有關稅全免等優待。同時,拉古薩成為西歐天主教國家與鄂圖曼帝國貨物交流的橋樑。雙方都因為拉古薩自由港而獲益。

十六世紀末期,海上強權西班牙帝國崛起。拉古薩把商船置於西班牙帝國的保護下。條件是,拉古薩參與西班牙帝國的海上軍事行動不能抵觸鄂圖曼帝國的利益。

一六八三年,鄂圖曼帝國敗於奧地利帝國。從次年起,拉古薩成為鄂圖曼帝國和奧地利帝國的雙屬國,依然保持自主,並嚴守中立,歷經一七五六至六三「七年之戰」等都不變。一八○八年,拿破崙席捲歐陸,精彩的拉古薩共和國才結束。

●開明先進的內政:拉古薩由貴族統治但一四一八年便廢除奴隸制,高度尊重自由。一三○一年引入醫療服務。一三四七年開設老人收容所。一三七七年開設傳染病隔離醫院。一四三二年開設孤兒院。這些社會措施都走在時代前端。

●融合互助的族群: 拉古薩原分互相敵視的拉丁和斯拉夫族群,十二世紀前分住城市的兩側,中間有沼澤相隔。後來,雙方言和,填起窪地變成城市中心的廣場。相互往來,不再分彼此。

●活躍國際的公民:一四九七年,拉古薩與興起的法國簽約通商。兩國文武人才頻繁的交流。許多拉古薩貴族活躍於巴黎大學(Sorbonne)。一六八三年,鄂圖曼帝國敗於奧地利帝國。為奧地利帝國打敗鄂圖曼帝國的野戰元帥竟然是拉古薩貴族袞杜利區(Frano Đivo Gundulić)。一八○○年,拉古薩在國際上八十多城市及海港駐有外交官。

對也是小國的台灣而言,以上歷史難道毫無啟發?

作者為前華府喬治大學外交學院講座教授,曾任國防部副部長,甫發表新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》

 

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對岸轉向主動統一?林中斌:買台灣比打台灣便宜

陳重生 綜合報導 20170914 

https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2017-09-14/97736

accessed September 14, 2017

 

●這是一篇根據913日多維新聞網綜合媒體報導所貼的文字。標題中的話"對岸轉向主動統一"是新加坡國立大學東亞研究所所長鄭永年所說。其他部分如北京對台手段第四種個選項、台灣忽略北京超軍事手段等是在下新書發表會所提書中的觀念。敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.9.15

 

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兩性專家分析男女大腦的不同,精闢演說讓網友直呼「超中肯」(中文字幕)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlulunyzS9U

accessed September 13, 2017

 

Man's brain is typified by linear sequential logic, or the left-hemisphere thinking. Whereas woman's brain tends be holistic or the right-hemisphere thinking.

Chong-Pin Lin September 13, 2017

 

●一個般說來,男人大腦傾向線性邏輯的思維,主要是左半腦發達。女人大腦傾向"事事相關"的思維,主要是右半腦發達。

淺見如上,敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.9.13

 

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Stephen Bannon, Outspoken Critic of China, Has Subtler Message in Hong Kong Visit

Alexandra Stevenson September 12, 2017

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/world/asia/steve-bannon-trump-hong-kong.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0&referer=android-app%3A%2F%2Fcom.google.android.gm

accessed September 13, 2017

 

Another example of Beijing's skillful foreign policy characterized by indirect approach with instruments other than force, be it verbal criticism or physical attack.

Chong-Pin Lin September 13, 2017

 

●這是北京技巧外交的另一實例。特點是"間接路線"。所用的工具不是語言的批評,更不是實體的攻擊,而是另類的方法,如金錢、媒體能見度、尊重。

林中斌 2017.9.13

 

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Walk with Me 正念的奇蹟

accessed September 7, 2017

 

"Walk with Me" a poetically spiritual documentary is truly "cooling to the mind and soothing to the spirit" in this chaotic time of human history. Highly recommended.

Chong-Pin Lin September 7, 2017

 

●"正念的奇蹟" 也許不適合習慣欣賞熱鬧動作片的觀眾。對於習慣內心探索的靈魂,這是炎熱天最好的清涼劑。高度讚賞,強力推薦。

林中斌 2017.9.7

 

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林中斌:台只論軍事將重蹈國共內戰失利覆轍

梁雅雯 中評社 2017年8月23日

http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1047/8/8/5/104788513.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=104788513&mdate=0825164054

accessed August 23, 2017

 

  這篇可能是2017.8.23新書發表會最全面,較準確的報導。

林中斌 2017.8.25

 

 

中評社台北823日電(記者 梁雅雯)

國防部軍政副部長、前陸委會首席副主委林中斌23日下午在新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》發表會上表示,大陸一向以超軍事手段和軍事手段並用,現階段對台政策就是超軍事手段,不得以才會攻打,因為買台灣比打台灣便宜。 
  林中斌強調,大陸一向以超軍事手段和軍事手段並用,國軍內戰失利部分原因就是忽略大陸超軍事手段和軍事手段合併運用,今天台灣如果再度就軍事論軍事,來處理對岸的威脅,勢必會重蹈覆轍。 
  林中斌和資深媒體人、國防部《國防報告書》諮詢委員會亓樂義合著新書《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》今天發表。發表會在孫立人將軍官邸(陸軍聯誼社)舉行。 
  林中斌表示,世界局勢變化快速,美中台三方未來可望出現多贏局面,鬥而不破將成為主要國家處理矛盾的方式。大陸買台灣比打台灣便宜,不會武統台灣。 
  林中斌臚列大陸各種統戰台灣方式,主要分為文統武統兩類,在這兩類裡又各分為四策,分別是上上策心靈契合、上策不戰統台、下策點穴戰癱瘓戰,下下策是傳統戰殲滅戰 
  林中斌提到,大陸現階段使用的,就是上策不戰統台的超軍事手端,不得以才會攻打,現況處於超軍事手段階段,祭出優厚待遇吸收台灣青年,再搭配窮台政策。買臺灣比打台灣便宜。 
  林中斌表示,現在的戰爭都是小國的內戰,以及大國打小國的戰爭,大國之間的戰爭已不可能爆發,中美間不可能兵戎相見。而目前台、美、中三方可望創造多贏可能,19148月歐戰爆發的一次大戰不可能會重演有4個理由如下: 
  第一,大家都有核子武器,雙方即使擦槍走火可能升高為核武大戰,沒有贏家。第二,全球化、網路化經濟高度互相依存。第三,衝突現場視訊掌控,可隨時叫停。第四,曾出現於小國的瘋狂領袖,不可能在大國長期高居上位。 
  此外,林中斌也提到,美國總統特朗普當選的意涵,包括美國政治模範落漆、美國社會嚴重分裂、特朗普對美國盟友態度惡劣,讓他們紛紛傾向北京、美國自省再生,不再超強霸世、美國與中國在東亞合作將超過對抗、美國亂象非特朗普一人一時造成等。 
  該書提到蔡習會探索篇章中提到,日本記者觀察到習近平批台獨時,未點名蔡英文,在兩岸官方互動冷的時刻,態度耐人尋味。由2017年春向前展望,雖然表面看起來機會渺茫,但不能排除的是蔡習會苗頭已萌芽。 
  今天會中有記者追問蔡習會章節,林中斌未直接回答,僅表示,他對國內問題沒有深入研究,要大家參照書上內文。 
  林中斌,居留北美29年,未入外國籍、未加入任何政黨。曾任國防部軍政副部長、陸委會首席副主委、美國華府智庫美國企業研究院AEI)專任學者兼亞洲研究部副主任、美國華府喬治城大學外交學院講座教授、高雄中山大學政治研究所教授兼所長、淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所教授。 

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  2017823日《撥雲見日》新書發表會簡報敬請賜教。

林中斌 2017.8.22

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買台灣,比打台灣便宜得多

藍孝威 中國時報 2017年8月24日

http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170824000418-260108

accessed August 24, 2017

自去年520後,大陸鷹派常發出以武力統一台灣論調。不過,前國防部副部長林中斌認為,現在大陸不會發起戰爭,但會以強大軍事力量為後盾,綜合經濟、宗教、社會等各種「超軍事手段」對付台灣。

由林中斌和軍事評論員亓樂義合著的《撥雲見日:破解台美中三方困局》昨舉行新書發表會。對錯綜複雜的台、美、中三邊關係,大陸方面時而發出武統威脅聲浪,林中斌指出,大陸統一台灣的方式,戰爭是最下策,要付出的成本最大,「買台灣,比打台灣便宜得多。」

書中舉例,大陸經濟崛起後,手中能打的牌變多,「一帶一路」就是強大武器。今年514日,大陸國家主席習近平在北京舉行「一帶一路國際合作高峰論壇」開幕式上大撒銀彈,指亞投行已為「一帶一路」建設參與國的9個專案,提供17億美元貸款,「絲路基金」投資達40億美元,今後大陸還將向「絲路基金」新增資金1000億元人民幣,同時,鼓勵金融機構開展人民幣海外基金業務,規模約3000億人民幣。

林中斌說,大陸對菲律賓打的就是經濟牌。當初兩國為南海主權爭執不下,菲律賓甚至把大陸告上國際法庭,判決結果也對大陸不利,但大陸趁菲國大選,對朝野兩組候選人均承諾經濟援助,結果成功改變菲律賓對南海的強硬立場,轉而向大陸靠攏。

亓樂義認為,大陸是全球第二大經濟體,中產階級變多,「三億人信仰宗教,有錢人不想打仗」。他也斷言大陸不會發動戰爭,但小型衝突、緊張、對峙不可避免;他也提醒,結合經濟、文化、宗教等「超軍事手段」能做到「巧戰而屈人之兵」,各界須有所警惕。

 

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